Success (or Lack Thereof) of Elite Skill Position Recruits

Submitted by Magnum P.I. on October 14th, 2019 at 9:39 PM

We need to talk about our hit rate with elite skill position (i.e., QB, RB, WR, and TE) recruits.

Mustapha Muhammad was our top-rated offensive recruit in the 2018 class, and he’s leaving the program without contributing anything on the field. On the other side of the ball, our top-rated recruits, Aidan Hutchinson and Cameron McGrone, are both starting and shining.

This is a microcosm of our success with highly rated recruits since the end of the Carr era. I looked at the outcomes for the highly rated (i.e., top 200 in 247 consensus rankings) skill position players that we’ve recruited from 2008 to 2018 to see how many of them panned out. I’m operationalizing “panned out” as those who went on to earn 1st or 2nd team all-conference honors (3rd team has only been around for a few years, so I didn't count that). This seems like a reasonable expectation for a top-200 player, which typically means they’re in the top ten or so for their position nationally out of high school, which typically means they’re in the top two or so for their position in the Big Ten.  

From 2008 to 2018, we recruited 26 top-200 skill position players (see appendix for all top-200 recruits during this period). Two (8%) of them—Denard Robinson and Jake Butt—ever earned 1st or 2nd team Big Ten honors. That’s it. We signed 26 elite QBs, RBs, WRs, and TEs during this 11-year span, and exactly two rose to the top of their position group in the conference. Sam McGuffie, Tate Forcier, Devin Gardner, Justice Hayes, Dennis Norfleet, Derrick Green, Drake Harris, Brian Cole, and Devin Asiasi are just a few of the names of top-talent skill position players who have not realized their full potential (to put it mildly in some cases).

By contrast, during this same period, we signed 14 top-200 offensive linemen, and five (36%) of them have managed 1st or 2nd team all-conference honors. Also during this same period, we signed 39 top-200 defensive players, and nine (23%) have won 1st or 2nd team honors.

So, either we are abysmal at developing high-end skill-position talent. Or we happen to be systematically recruiting the top-200 recruits who probably shouldn’t be rated as such. Or we are just unlucky with injuries and personal issues. For context, Ohio State signed 33 top-200 skill position players during this same period, and eight (24%) have earned 1st or 2nd team all-conference honors. Penn State signed 14 top-200 skill position players, and four (29%) earned 1st or 2nd team all-conference honors. What gives?

Top-200 Michigan Signees from 2008 to 2018 (* = 1st or 2nd team all-Big Ten)

2018

  1. Aidan Hutchinson (not counted in denominator)
  2. Cameron McGrone (not counted in denominator)
  3. Mustapha Muhammad
  4. Myles Sims

2017

  1. Donovan Peoples-Jones
  2. Aubrey Solomon
  3. Cesar Ruiz
  4. Luiji Vilain
  5. Drew Singleton
  6. Ambry Thomas
  7. Jordan Anthony
  8. Chuck Filiaga
  9. Tarik Black
  10. Dylan McCaffrey
  11. Nico Collins
  12. Oliver Martin

2016

  1. Rashan Gary*
  2. Ben Bredeson*
  3. Brandon Peters
  4. David Long*
  5. Devin Asiasi
  6. Michael Onwenu
  7. Kareem Walker
  8. Kekoa Crawford
  9. Lavert Hill*

2015

  1. Brian Cole
  2. Zach Gentry
  3. Tyree Kinnel

2014

  1. Jabrill Peppers*
  2. Drake Harris
  3. Bryan Mone
  4. Mason Cole*
  5. Michael Ferns
  6. Lawrence Marshall

2013

  1. Derrick Green
  2. Patrick Kugler
  3. Dymonte Thomas
  4. Shane Morris
  5. Kyle Bosch
  6. David Dawson
  7. Chris Fox
  8. Jourdan Lewis*
  9. Henry Poggi
  10. Taco Charlton*
  11. Mike McCray
  12. Jake Butt*
  13. Logan Tuley-Tillman

2012

  1. Kyle Kalis*
  2. Ondre Pipkins
  3. Joe Bolden
  4. Erik Magnuson*
  5. James Ross
  6. Chris Wormley*
  7. Royce Jenkins-Stone
  8. Terry Richardson
  9. Tom Strobel
  10. Dennis Norfleet

2011

  1. Justice Hayes
  2. Brennen Beyer
  3. Blake Countess*

2010

  1. Devin Gardner
  2. Demar Dorsey
  3. Cullen Christian

2009

  1. Craig Roh*
  2. Je’Ron Stokes
  3. Justin Turner
  4. William Campbell
  5. Quinton Washington
  6. Tate Forcier
  7. Denard Robinson*
  8. Taylor Lewan*
  9. Isaiah Bell
  10. Anthony LaLota

2008

  1. Darryl Stonum
  2. Dann O’Neill
  3. J.B. Fitzgerald
  4. Brandon Moore
  5. Boubacar Cissoko
  6. Brandon Smith
  7. Sam McGuffie
  8. Michael Shaw
Football

Comments

Jasper

October 14th, 2019 at 10:25 PM ^

You seem to be suggesting that it would be reasonable to "fit a curve" (so to speak) to data collected from multiple coaching staffs. I don't that makes sense. RichRod != Hoke != Harbaugh. I don't think there's anything culturally persistent that would explain what you've observed.

We know how well (or not) the first two recruited.

A close look at Harbaugh's recruiting is interesting, though. I agree that something is lacking at the offensive skill positions. Bad judgment with recruiting? Sub-par player development? Lousy play calling? Some combination of those .....

Joined: 12/30/2010

MGoPoints: 3591

Magnum P.I.

October 15th, 2019 at 8:10 AM ^

The 2008 class would've been seniors and redshirt juniors (the years one's probably most likely to make all-conference) under Hoke. 

I'm not sure if there's a common cultural thing, but it seems like Hoke and Harbaugh (and RR) are both committed to an offense model and less likely to reshape the model to suit players' unique talents. See: Denard under Hoke. Or see: DPJ, Black, and Collins under Harbaugh. 

Joined: 07/16/2009

MGoPoints: 30681

andrewgr

October 15th, 2019 at 7:01 PM ^

There is one persistent feature that might contribute; I can't say whether it does or not, but it could.  That's the fact that Michigan has a large, dedicated fan base that is passionate about football and spends money.

This means that services like 247 and Rivals that hand out those rankings have a positive incentive to rank Michigan recruits highly.  So in particular, if a bunch of these players were ranked, say, in the 175-247 range, it could be that they were ranked higher than they should have been, but were bumped in order to sell/keep subscriptions.  (I think it's unlikely that they can afford to consistently bump players into the top 100 that aren't studs, so even if they have been bumped from 125 to 95, they should still be legitimately great players).

Again, I'm not claiming this is actually a factor; just that it in theory, it could be.

Joined: 11/15/2013

MGoPoints: 3059

tybert

October 14th, 2019 at 11:06 PM ^

I know he was injured but not seeing DPJ even in the top 2 rounds of 2020 mock draft shows something is amiss in our skill development. 

 

Had to judge RR's time because he seemed to have and bring bad karma with him, sans Denard and Lewan (minus his anger management issues). 

Hoke could clearly recruit but the coaching was so bad he was the replacement for Butch Jones. 

I'll always love Devin for the abuse he took behind awful O lines and bad coaching. 

The guy who never lived up to the bar was really Kalis. He should have been a road paver for us but was a wet TP equivalent

Joined: 11/17/2008

MGoPoints: 8453

Magnum P.I.

October 15th, 2019 at 8:16 AM ^

You look at all the guys who didn't pan out over these 11 years, and there are many who were hurt, got in trouble, just weren't that good, or have another easy answer for their shortcomings.

But there are a handful of guys who were, in my opinion, just flat out misused by the staff. Devin Gardner is one. It's appearing that DPJ, Black, and Collins may be others. It's this type of kid that I really feel for because if they'd chose to go to another program, they'd have almost certainly cashed in big time at the NFL.

Joined: 07/16/2009

MGoPoints: 30681

PopeLando

October 16th, 2019 at 2:43 PM ^

It's especially frustrating because even Lloyd Carr - he who invented Lloydball - would create 1000-yard receivers consistently. 

Have a Braylon Edwards type? 1000 yards

Have a Jason Avant type? 1000 yards

Have a Mario Manningham type? 1000 yards

We have one of EACH on our team right now...and they get 2-3 targets per game for 50-70 yards max. DPJ has 1000 yards in his CAREER. 

That's criminal 

Joined: 08/01/2015

MGoPoints: 68312

JFW

October 15th, 2019 at 7:35 AM ^

Not a stats guy so my opinion comes with a bag of salt. That said I do think there is an issue, but also agree that there are too many data points to nail down a cause at this time.

I would be curious to see how Michigan did historically (under Lloyd/Mo/Carr.

I also wonder if we have a better rep as a defensive school and that maybe makes it easier to get higher quality guys there. 
 

Finally, is there any metric for “coachability”? 
 

What is the difference between a Glasgow and a Kalis? Or a more recent Glasgow and one of our offensive dudes who isn’t panning out. 
 

I’d argue that at least some of it is coachability and buckets of sweat. 

Joined: 10/20/2010

MGoPoints: 15285

jdemille9

October 15th, 2019 at 11:25 AM ^

Without comparing these results to Michigan's historical 'success' rate and the national averages not much can be drawn. Even if it is impossible to quantify why a recruit pans out or not this is still something interesting to consider, but a lot of variables are at play. 

Yes, those results are disappointing, but maybe this is par for Michigan. I'm trying to think of the elite offensive talent Michigan has had the past 30 years or so and not many names pop up.. 

Off the top of my head; Desmond Howard, Ty Wheatley, Biakabutuka, A-Train, Mike Hart, Braylon Edwards, Mario Manningham, David Terrell.. obviously there are more but it's not like Michigan has been a place full of elite offensive players like we tend to see in the current college landscape.

I'd be very interested to see what the national averages are, or at least for the bluebloods like OSU, Bama and Clemson (even if just recently). 

Joined: 01/29/2011

MGoPoints: 8521

Magnum P.I.

October 15th, 2019 at 4:12 PM ^

But you just named a bunch of skill-position players who were hugely exciting stars for this program that commanded national headlines and name-recognition. Desmond, Wheatley, Biakabutuka, etc. Those were the kind of guys who you couldn't wait to watch each week and the kind of guys who generated massive buzz for the program, too. 

Name one offensive player besides Denard in the past ten years who has made you that excited to watch? 

It's crippling for a program to not have offensive stars that are known by name nationally. 

 

Joined: 07/16/2009

MGoPoints: 30681

funkywolve

October 16th, 2019 at 11:49 PM ^

Chris Perry, Derrick Alexander, Bennie Joppru,Jerame Truman, Jake Butt, Marquise Walker - all guys who were on All-American teams.

What's your definition of 'elite'?  I don't know how many people would consider some of UM's QBs elite, but from Grbac through Henne every QB who started at UM except Henson went on to an NFL career, and most of those careers were more then just a cup of coffee - Grbac, Collins, Griese, Dreisbach, Brady, Navarre, Henne.

With a few exceptions there hasn't been too many elite players on the offensive side since the RR era began, but before RR UM had one or two studs just about every year.

Joined: 10/08/2008

MGoPoints: 20232

Blue Vet

October 15th, 2019 at 8:17 AM ^

The question is reasonable, and the results might suggest a trend worth looking at. However, the evidence is iffy when it combines 3 different head coaches, and is not compared to the results in other programs.

Joined: 05/08/2012

MGoPoints: 71215

Magnum P.I.

October 15th, 2019 at 9:12 AM ^

I was mostly just curious to see how many elite QB/RB/WR-types have panned out. Answer: pretty much no one. Depressing.

We've had so many exciting signings that, at the time, us fans thought would lead to all-time program highlights. I remember my excitement when we signed Shane Morris, Devin Gardner, Derrick Green, DPJ, and others. Only Denard became that special player that you couldn't wait to watch on Saturdays.

Joined: 07/16/2009

MGoPoints: 30681

GoBlueTal

October 15th, 2019 at 9:04 AM ^

So what you're saying is that 7/40 offensive and 9/39 defensive players have been hits.  Just me, but that feels within the margin of error.  

Now, I hear what you're saying, especially when you break it down to OL vs. not-OL, and there's even some validity to the argument.  There's multiple factors going into this, and just saying x kid has popped vs. x kid has not by way of AA status is a misnomer.  

Or, put short, your premise has something worth looking into, but your analysis needs more depth than comparison only to OSU.  

Joined: 10/15/2011

MGoPoints: 962

Transfer Portal

October 15th, 2019 at 9:42 AM ^

Comparing to OSU would be pointless because they have a 5 star CB that gets drafted in the 1st round and is immediately replaced by a 5 star CB that plays one year, is awesome, and gets drafted.  Teams like Penn St, Auburn, Florida, ND would be more applicable I think.

 

edit; I wouldn't take the time either

Joined: 01/18/2019

MGoPoints: 11192

ak47

October 15th, 2019 at 9:20 AM ^

Its play calling. Skill position players get those 1st and 2nd team guys because of counting stats. We have 3 nfl wide receivers on this team and can't get a single one to a 1,000 yard season. The problem isn't Nico, DPJ, and Black not panning out, its that they all chose the wrong school to illustrate their talents.

Also jesus that 2018 (and 2019) class is light on top 200 guys, recruiting is 100% falling off. 

Joined: 05/05/2011

MGoPoints: 33614

Transfer Portal

October 15th, 2019 at 9:38 AM ^

I've been curious about compiling a hit/miss study with this staff due to what seems like a high amount of attrition, along with accepting early commitments from guys that seem like borderline prospects on paper.  One of my issues is how you define the success rate, and after reviewing some of the All B10 teams I decided I didn't like that as the measuring stick.  I think there is some bias there where voters don't want one team to dominate all the positions, and some of the smaller market B10 schools seem to struggle for recognition. 

I look at our players and rank them plus/minus/equal based on how they've performed here in regards to their ranking.  I don't care about NFL draft, either, as college studs don't always equate to NFL studs.  It's obviously hard when their careers are not over yet, and this is about as subjective as it gets.   Looking at the 2 classes that should be the big contributors on this team:

2017

  1. Donovan Peoples-Jones =
  2. Aubrey Solomon  -
  3. Cesar Ruiz  =                     
  4. Luiji Vilain -
  5. Drew Singleton -
  6. Ambry Thomas =
  7. Jordan Anthony -
  8. Chuck Filiaga -
  9. Tarik Black =
  10. Dylan McCaffrey =
  11. Nico Collins +
  12. Oliver Martin -

2016

  1. Rashan Gary -
  2. Ben Bredeson =
  3. Brandon Peters -
  4. David Long +
  5. Devin Asiasi -
  6. Michael Onwenu +
  7. Kareem Walker -
  8. Kekoa Crawford -
  9. Lavert Hill +

Joined: 01/18/2019

MGoPoints: 11192

Magnum P.I.

October 15th, 2019 at 11:48 AM ^

I like the plus/minus approach here. If we're talking production (rather than flashes of ability), I think you have to give DPJ, Ruiz, and Black all negatives. DPJ was the top receiver in the whole country his year, and Ruiz the top (by far!) center. Black was the number 15 receiver. I don't think any of these guys have produced at the level one would expect for their ranking.

Joined: 07/16/2009

MGoPoints: 30681

Transfer Portal

October 15th, 2019 at 1:58 PM ^

Agree Thomas.  I think some of my ranks are taking our offensive approach into consideration, so DPJ is automatically handicapped.  Unjustly, I might add.  

 

I also think a 5 tiered system would detail the guys who really ball out or flame out.  Chase Winovich would be a ++ and Amhir Mitchell would be - -.

Also agree on Black, poor guy but injuries have dampened his production.

Joined: 01/18/2019

MGoPoints: 11192

I'mTheStig

October 15th, 2019 at 8:40 PM ^

The +/- system, or a ++/-- system, still doesn't account for misuse and/or a lack of player development.  

I get what the OP, and subsequent replies are saying, but I just cannot look at a player Rashan Gary or Dylan McCaffrey and give them a black and white = or a - symbol.  I think those players have tremendous talent which wasn't/isn't being utilized/developed properly at Michigan.  

Especially with DM.  He had offers to LSU and Washington among others... those are two schools where I firmly believe he'd be tearing it up.

Joined: 11/02/2018

MGoPoints: 11373

SMart WolveFan

October 15th, 2019 at 9:59 AM ^

It's tough because conference honors are a zero sum game and you're comparing that to UofM's direct competitors for them.

Especially offense skill players are unit dependent, meaning a great WR won't get honors if the bad QB can't get him the ball or one great OL won't be successful if he's playing on a unit with 4 pillows.

Defensive players can individually put up numbers and earn honors even on a bad unit.

Hopefully the offense can unlock the crazy and get the WRs some spotlight.

 

 

Joined: 04/20/2015

MGoPoints: 14700

goblue4321

October 15th, 2019 at 10:01 AM ^

The attrition and lack of development for 16’ - 17’ is bad and the small number 18’ is worrying. I think michigan is about to go into middle of the pack big ten team again for next 5-7 years 

Joined: 02/01/2017

MGoPoints: 1296

canzior

October 15th, 2019 at 12:16 PM ^

Another way to look at this...who is the best Michigan player in the NFL drafted in the last 10 years? 

Are there any Michigan offensive players in the league that are even considered "average" outside of Tom Brady?  

 That great 2016 defense: J Lewis is the 3rd/4th cb for Dallas. Peppers has been ok, but still is a liability in coverage. Taco was awful in Dallas and was cut. Wormley hardly plays for the Ravens. Glasgow is still playing for the Bengals. Stribling was cut from someone's practice squad(again) I believe. Dymonte Thomas is on someone's practice squad...(Denver)  Gedeon is pretty good for the Vikings.  Hurst is an above average DT for the Raiders.   

Rudock is still hanging around, a few OL are doing well, Chesson was cut, Darboh is on the Bucs practice squad. Higdon, Deveon Smith...I think are both unemployed. 

I think you can look at this as to why Michigan is where they are. They get good players but not elite players.  Without even looking at starz, either they aren't getting the elite kids or aren't developing them elitely. (I know I just made up that word) 

Bama has guys all over rosters, even if MOST of them aren't great. Outside of maybe 3 offensive players, they are just guys, but guys that make NFL rosters and start.  And I feel like I can't watch an NFL game without seeing an OSU db somewhere. 

Joined: 05/28/2010

MGoPoints: 9223

Newton Gimmick

October 15th, 2019 at 12:18 PM ^

Nice work. 

However, to be fair the cutoff for hit-rate % should have been 2016, if not 2015.  There are a lot of quality players who haven't made All Big Ten (yet), but are counted as 'misses' in the denominator:  DPJ, Ruiz, Ambry, Tarik, Dylan, Nico, and Onwenu are all asterisk-free.  Some of those guys could still make All Big 10, others are TBD, and some have slightly underwhelmed (whether their fault or not) but I'm still glad we got them.

Some earlier recruits made solid contributions but didn't make All Big 10: Gentry, McCray, Ross, etc.  (And is it possible those All Big 10 slots were taken by even higher recruits?  The #3 overall guy at OSU and the #199 guy at Michigan are both "Top 200.") 

What is most concerning are the misses at QB and OL that resulted in a mostly lost decade.  Devin Gardner was a fit for RichRod, not Borges, but stuck it out and showed some great flashes.  Peters, Morris, and Forcier were relative busts.  Can include Gentry there as well but we never got to see him much at QB.

Joined: 05/06/2015

MGoPoints: 33792

MGoStrength

October 15th, 2019 at 2:47 PM ^

So, either we are abysmal at developing high-end skill-position talent. Or we happen to be systematically recruiting the top-200 recruits who probably shouldn’t be rated as such. Or we are just unlucky with injuries and personal issues. 

Have to assume it's a combination.  I've long thought the top recruits are not as good as their rankings, primarily based on how they perform at UM.  For instance Drake Harris, Kareem Walker, Brandon Peters, Derrick Green, & Shane Morris were all highly rated recruits and none of them were very good.  But, some of that has to do with luck, injuries, and development.  But, I often thought the ones we tend to get are not as good as ranked.  That's not a blanket statement because there were some extremely talented ones like Dax Hill, Jabrill Peppers, & Rashan Gary, but we've had a history for quite some times of production not living up to recruiting rankings.

Joined: 07/29/2010

MGoPoints: 20002

mbert1552

October 15th, 2019 at 11:56 PM ^

Bottomline is there isnt anyone now, nor has there been any meechigan  player that scares osu when we look at the roster(s). Simple as that. Debate why that is. Most of your 4 stars are mid to lower and the few higher guys were never difference makers against the elite team.(gary sucked, peppers sucked, bush too, all got ran away from or trampled and injured. Facts. Qbs sucked, best was rudock , a transfer, and the other "saviour" transfer is a shrinking violet despite your certainty this offseason he was heisman quality. What a bracing fact it is that none of your competent qbs are weirdo jims supposedly(someone overrated them)high 4 star recruits yet all everyone here said in offseason is how um's qb room was best there is. What a complete failure. Why are you all putting up with it? Enough is enough from shell-shocked looking jimmy h. During postgame press conferences he looks like he just took a double dose of lithium dudes. Tell me I'm wrong. 

Joined: 10/15/2019

MGoPoints: 6

Magnum P.I.

October 16th, 2019 at 9:01 AM ^

You're not going to win any friends here with your tone and extremism (e.g., Gary, Peppers, and Bush most definitely did not "suck"). 

But, yes, a big take-away here is that we haven't had a big-time, impact skill-position player that scares opposing defenses for a long time. 

We've recruited at the level where you'd expect one to pan out. Ohio State and Penn State have recruited at similar levels and enjoyed their Ezekiel Elliotts and Saquon Barkleys. 

It just feels like DPJ, Collins, or Black could be that guy if we only treated them like such.

Joined: 07/16/2009

MGoPoints: 30681

trustBlue

October 16th, 2019 at 1:37 AM ^

You have to take these kinds of stats with a huge grain of salt, because the nature of recruiting is so idiosyncratic, but that said we've certainly had an impressive string of spectatcular misses on elite offensive skill recruits:

Shane Morris, Derek Green, Drake Harris, Brian Cole, Kekoa Crawford, Kareem Walker, Brandon Peters

We could have had some very different seasons if only one or two of these players had lived up to their rankings.

 

Joined: 04/14/2014

MGoPoints: 8169

albapepper

October 16th, 2019 at 11:27 AM ^

Peoples-Jones, Charbonnet, and Nico all seem to be working out. 

 

TE is a weird position to recruit out of high school.  Asiasi played very well as a freshman but wanted to be closer to home.

Joined: 12/19/2018

MGoPoints: 75