Some Iowa Stats
I have been looking at the stats on our matchup with Iowa next week, and so far I am encouraged by what I see. Two of their defensive stats jump out immediately.
- They lead the nation in interceptions with 22.
- Their rushing yards allowed per game is 14th nationally at 105.8
Their numbers are also strong in first downs allowed as well as overall points per game, but those both seem tied somewhat to the above.
The high interception rate does not seem too scary with Cade at the helm. Pretty hard to imagine him throwing 5 picks (sorry Taulia). If they are able to successfully shut down our run game, that would be a much bigger cause for concern, as it would make us lean on our passing game more than usual, which plays into their hands a bit with interception risk.
Can Iowa stop our running game? The entire game likely hinges on this strength-against-strength matchup.
Looking at who Iowa has played so far, I was surprised to find they held the #3 rushing offense (by ypg) to 79 yards on 1.9 ypc. But that team is...Kent State, who piled 498 rushing yards on an FCS team, in addition to playing teams ranked 106, 111, 108, 120, and 128 in rushing yards per game, for 262, 226, 200, 360, and 303 yards respectively. So that's basically junk data.
The only team to crack 4 yards per carry against Iowa was Maryland, but they almost completely abandoned the run after falling behind quickly on a slew of turnovers. My count was 6 runs in the second half, scanning through the play-by-play.
Iowa only played two rushing offenses in the top 50 (yards per game). They held Wisconsin (#16) to 166 yards on 3.5 per carry. However, Wisconsin seems to have had that game very well in hand, and they were running predictably on almost every play in the second half. Minnesota (#31) did a little better with 189 yards on 3.8 per carry.
Their rush defense doesn't look earth shattering, just solid. And solid is not likely to be good enough to carry the Hawkeyes.
Looking at how our defense matches up with their offense, try to restrain yourself from cackling with knowing glee from the outset. Iowa is 123rd out of 130 teams in both yards per game (299.1) and TFL allowed (7.5/game), as well as 92nd nationally in sacks allowed (31 total). They are also awful at pass efficiency, completion percentage, pass yards, rush yards, red zone scoring rate, third and fourth down conversion rate (all ranked in the hundreds).
One last note of interest. Iowa has two safeties on the year. Extra care must be taken if they pin us deep.
Looking at the stats has been very encouraging. Right now I'm feeling an M victory (31-10).
November 29th, 2021 at 2:18 PM ^
I think if Iowa is able to stop our run, it could come down to field position. I'd give Michigan the edge here after seeing what they did to OSU as well as their special teams unit.
November 29th, 2021 at 3:10 PM ^
Ohio State supposedly had the #2 run defense. I have faith we'll move the ball enough.
November 29th, 2021 at 3:27 PM ^
Agreed.
November 29th, 2021 at 9:44 PM ^
They obviously hasn’t played anybody to earn that #2 rating.
/s
November 30th, 2021 at 12:32 PM ^
In this context, #2 means poop, right?
November 30th, 2021 at 4:04 PM ^
As has been widely discussed since The Game, OSU's base by the end of the season was a cover-2 with a "light box" of 2 LBs and one very small HSP. I think we can agree that their number 2 ranking was more a product of game situations and a good but not great DL.
Iowa defensive priority is stopping the run, and they play a 4-3. With few exceptions all their games have been tight affairs where running was on the table for all 4 quarters. A (nearly) weaponized Badger team took 48 attempts to make 166 yards, 3.5 a pop. With our other weapons and general aversion to turning it over I think M will still win even at 3.5 ypc, but we'll be sweating.
November 29th, 2021 at 3:36 PM ^
We just won a game where the stats suggested we wouldn't. Iowa could do the same. Think they'll be fired up to beat us and spoil our run to the playoffs? Better bet your life on it.
We need to play with heart and fire. There can be no let up. Do not underestimate Iowa.
November 29th, 2021 at 4:07 PM ^
This exactly. There were lots of things about The Game that were pretty shocking (in a good way). At least they were to me. Which just goes to show you that shocking things can and do happen in CFB on a weekly basis.
Iowa beating us would be pretty shocking, but we only have to look back to 2016 to know it’s possible.
We’ve got to be able to run the ball at a decent clip. It seems Michigan made some tweaks to their running game for OSU that really paid off, especially in terms of converting short yardage and red zone trips.
I have to assume they’ll continue to use what worked last weekend, but Iowa will be able to scout it. It will come down to the line executing at a high level again, as well as Gattis calling a solid game. Certainly should be doable.
Thankfully Iowa’s offense is bad enough that we can probably afford a few mistakes, but I also expect them to pull out all the tricks they have available. They’ll be aggressive on 4th down, run some fakes, etc. If Michigan wants to win comfortably they’ll need to score in the 30s.
November 29th, 2021 at 4:20 PM ^
They are absolutely PUTRID on offense. One of the worst teams in the country on both 3rd and 4th down conversions.
They can't lean on their pink locker room voodoo this year.
It would shocking indeed to see them crack 300 yards or 20 points unless their turnover luck continues. You are right, crazy things can and do happen. I just like our chances.
November 29th, 2021 at 7:46 PM ^
Contrary to what the stats may suggest, Iowa is definitely not putrid on offense. They are completely unspectacular and often predictable and their QB play is truly mediocre. But Tyler Goodson is a very talented back who finds his holes and runs behind a typically competent Iowa OL. LaPorta is a solid TE who often makes plays when they need a big conversion.
Don't get me wrong, our offense is much better and our D should be able to contain their offense, all things being equal. But football is a game of emotion as much as X's and O's and Iowa will be coming in sky high with many fans in tow. We should be able to match their intensity and desire but we also just came off a win for the ages.
I like our chances but Iowa is not a MAC team with essentially no realistic chance of beating us. They are a solid Big 10 squad, well-coached as always, fundamentally sound, and motivated. We need to show up and treat them with high respect, ie. take absolutely nothing for granted.
All that being said if we get up >14 points on them it will be exceedingly difficult for them to catch up. Because we are NOT Nebraska. Go Blue!
November 29th, 2021 at 3:59 PM ^
Iowa seems to have benefited from "puck luck" this year, even more so than playing in the B1G West would indicate. Did they steal all of Mrs. Frost's stash?
November 29th, 2021 at 7:49 PM ^
Not puck luck. They have a talented defensive backfield and their DL is solid which means teams often end up in 2nd or 3rd and passing distance to convert, ie. obvious passing downs. The + TO margin indicates that they are opportunistic and trust me, they take advantage when they are afforded those opportunities. We're not going to beat them by 4+ TDs on Saturday. We should win but we need to play our game and execute well like we have lately. If those things happen we'll win by 10-17 points.
November 29th, 2021 at 4:58 PM ^
Everything about this match up screams Michigan victory. But...I've been around long enough to see a fair share of bullshit losses to teams that seemed not even close in talent. I'll be nervous until I'm not, which I hope means a 35 point lead in the second quarter.
November 29th, 2021 at 5:17 PM ^
If our O staff is at all worried about Iowa stopping the run, we might see M come out with a Balanced approach similar to Wisconsin (29 passing attempts vs. 34 rushing). I think the M staff is supremely confident in their ability to run the football so I expect M will be run-heavy. And I think it will work just fine, especially in the 2nd half.
November 29th, 2021 at 5:51 PM ^
HELP me out - I watched the first half of the Iowa PSU game and Clifford threw 2 interceptions. In both cases, it looked like the Iowa cornerbacks knew the routes at the start of the play and ran better routes to the spot. Did PSU telegraph where the ball was going or maybe there was a safety somewhere so the CBs were making best guesses? Those two INTs were the only time in my life I knew the CB (everyone knew) the CB was going to get to the ball first with some 20 yards to go. How did Iowa do that?
et cetera - I still am not pleased at how much their CB King (All-American) was holding and grabbing our WRs all game and the refs let him during that last bitter bitter loss at Iowa.
November 29th, 2021 at 6:28 PM ^
I'm no expert, for sure. My guess would be film study. There are probably routes that show up regularly in given situations on PSU's part, and the CBs and defensive staff all did their jobs preparing for those. The kid might be really smart and recognized "hey, this is one of those situations we worked on!" saw the quarterback and receiver do something, line up, look a certain direction, and went for it.
November 29th, 2021 at 6:18 PM ^
Michigan needs to play disciplined, mistake-limited football, and take advantage of red zone trips more often than not. They do this, they should win this game. If they get sloppy, drop key passes, turn the ball over, jump before the whistle...well, then they'll be making Iowa good enough to give us all a very bad day.
November 29th, 2021 at 6:44 PM ^
This game will be against the worst QB's we have seen all year with the exception of NW. They would be lucky to have Rocky Lombardi under center. It is going to be very hard for Iowa to score points. As long as we continue to play smart, be patient, and take care of the football, we will be fine.
Also, cackle with glee if their punter cannot consistently pin us inside the 5. I still have PTSD from the punter's 2016 performance.
November 29th, 2021 at 7:15 PM ^
Iowa's biggest asset is Ferentz, he gets a lot out of his players.
I think this game is going to be closer than some people expect. The line is probably right on the mark.
November 29th, 2021 at 7:51 PM ^
Couldn't agree more.
November 29th, 2021 at 9:41 PM ^
Iowa is absolutely going to be a pain in this game but Michigan is the type of team Iowa doesn't like to play this year - they can run the ball pretty well and don't have a passing game that's going to make a ton of mistakes. And UM's defense can get pressure with 4 and Iowa's two main QBs have combined for 55% completions, 6.3 ypa, and 11:7 TD:INT rate, with only 2 TDs coming in the past 6 games.
November 30th, 2021 at 3:43 PM ^
Kirk is hell bent on stopping the run, and if I'm not mistaken Iowa runs a base 4-3 defense that they're loathe to move out of. If UM's content to slam head-first into that with 12 personnel, I think this game will be more Wisconsin than OSU (both of which turned out fine of course). It will be interesting to see if they're proactive in attacking with more 3 WR sets on standard downs and a 50/50 run pass mix on first down (similar to how they started vs. the Badgers and State), or if they move to that approach only if there's trouble moving the ball early in the game. Also interested to see if the diamond backfield continues to emerge with Edwards splitting out to attack the linebackers in coverage, and Haskins/All staying in to threaten the run.
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