Season in Review: Kam Chatman

Submitted by Alex Cook on

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Barron – MGoBlog

Previously: Zak Irvin, Aubrey Dawkins, Spike Albrecht, Ricky Doyle, Mark Donnal, and Max Bielfeldt

If nothing else, Kam Chatman’s freshman season reinforced how impressive Glenn Robinson’s career was at Michigan. Chatman, like Robinson, was a highly-touted prospect who was expected to step in and play 30 minutes a night right away; unlike Glenn, Kam struggled mightily and never adjusted to the college game well enough to merit a spot in the rotation. While classmates saw increased minutes after Caris LeVert and Derrick Walton were injured, Kam slowly disappeared, unable to morph Beilein’s malleable “power forward” spot enough to fit his skills.

It was easy to buy in before the season – Chatman and a new big man (Donnal or Doyle) were expected to hold down the front-court, but Doyle, who was far less highly-recruited, outperformed Chatman easily. Beilein’s offensive system is mythologized and Chatman’s struggles can be explained away, but many other Beilein products have excelled at a young age and the four can be simplified to fit Michigan’s needs.

As a lefty at his size, Chatman is a natural fit for the the four – he operates from the right side of the floor (instead of moving left-to-right as a three like Manny Harris or a young Nik Stauskas, for example) and can theoretically cover all variations of the power forward: a swingman, a traditional post,or a designated space-and-shoot big. Michigan’s power forward position has looked different with different players: GRIII was essentially an outlet to finish around the rim, spacing the floor credibly enough to give Burke, Stauskas, and LeVert enough room to operate; Zack Novak was a fellow left-handed player who was basically a guard masquerading as a forward on defense. Unfortunately, Chatman never found a niche or a role, relegating him to the bench.

[Hit THE JUMP]

* * *

chatman shot chart oh no

via Shot Analytics ($)

It’s pretty much impossible to ignore some glaring weaknesses that Chatman has as a freshman. Here are a few representative statistics:

  • He shot 36% from two (87 attempts), 26% from three (38), and 68% (28) from the free throw line. That’s 0.74 points per shot attempt (0.80 points per shot equivalent).
  • Chatman’s season-long eFG% was 36.8, putting him among current and former B1G players like Jeremy Hollowell, Idong Ibok, Alvin Ellis, and Alex Legion.
  • In games against Kenpom Top 100 opponents (adjusted for game site), he had an offensive rating of just 68.5. Over the entire season, only six rotational B1G players posted worse efficiency numbers in the last eight years.
  • His assist rate was 10.4, not bad for a power forward, but any positive there was negated by his turnover rate of 19.2.
  • After the new year, Chatman played less than ten minutes in more than half of Michigan’s games.
  • He scored in double digits thrice in 32 games – two of those came against teams outside the Kenpom Top 200.

To be fair, Chatman was just 18 years old for all of last season, frequently playing against guys three or four years older than him and almost never playing against guys younger than him. Of the top 15 four stars in Chatman’s recruiting cycle, Kam was the youngest by at least five months; of those players, Melo Trimble was clearly the best – outside of him, there were few notable contributors and even fewer starters on good teams. And it should be noticed that Kam’s struggles came in the context of how stagnant the offense looked last year – it’s not his fault that the fives were poor screeners in the pick-and-roll game, for example.

Still, this baptism by fire was largely a failure. Chatman never seemed to adjust to the speed of the college game – whether he was physically or mentally overwhelmed (or both) isn’t clear, but it was woefully apparent that he was not a viable solution in Glenn Robinson’s absence. Fortunately the emergence of Aubrey Dawkins (who’s almost a full year older than Chatman) mitigated that, but Michigan would benefit immensely if Kam performed to the level that his pedigree as a prospect suggests.

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chatman comps

There’s not a lot of optimism here. As per Chatman’s profile – decent rebounder, awful efficiency, a nominal stretch big – there are some names that are to be expected: Smotrycz is familiar, Jordan Sibert eventually transferred to Dayton and starred there, and Jeff Brooks, the only guy to show up twice in Kam’s top ten, was a pretty good sidekick when Talor Battle was at Penn State. In fact, if you’re looking to cherry-pick a name to project substantial improvement for Chatman, Brooks is the best choice:

brooks shooting

brooks etc

Even though Brooks drastically increased his minutes over the course of his career, he was able to improve across the board – his offensive rating leapt from 89.9 to 117.4 in two years after an increase in usage also. Like Chatman, his TO rate was much higher than his assist rate, but they evened out by the time he was a senior. Brooks’s shooting line (44/25/36) was almost completely different (59/40/74) after his eligibility expired. Like Chatman, Brooks was especially young for his class – and he was actually a Top 100 recruit, despite going to Penn State.

* * *

From Chatman’s perspective, there’s plenty of time to develop – he was never going to be a one-and-done type, so a disappointing freshman season doesn’t hurt his potential much, if at all. The problem is that there are a handful of viable options at the four outside of Chatman – Moritz Wagner is a complete wild card, but he will primarily be a four; Zak Irvin is capable of playing there in a pinch, though I suspect that the coaches don’t prefer that; DJ Wilson – who I think is a five – could feasibly be a four as well. For a position that was assumed to be Chatman’s to lose last year, there’s a lot of options there now and Kam could very well get lost in the shuffle. I suspect that he’ll play plenty during the non-conference portion of the schedule as Beilein figures out his rotation – after that, it’s anyone’s guess.

Comments

champswest

July 21st, 2015 at 2:32 PM ^

given up on Kam, but I think there is a very good chance that he bounces back strong this year. Let's hope that he can make that sophomore leap. What a boost that would be for this team.

Jim Harbaugh

July 21st, 2015 at 2:39 PM ^

Obviously there is no way of predicting how well he will do this year, but in my opinion I think he is still a year away from his breakout season. GIve him time to develop his body and let the game slow down and he will be just fine.

bronxblue

July 21st, 2015 at 3:04 PM ^

It'll be imperative that he improve his shooting early on this season to open up the floor. I think he can be a very effective player if spacing improves, and that will come if he can become a credible shooter so that defenders won't slag off him so much.

Lanknows

July 21st, 2015 at 4:30 PM ^

I think a lot of casual fans had already made up their minds by then.  We needed an immediate contributer, Kam was given a chance, couldn't deliver -- close the book.

Can't overstate things - he still struggled to contribute, even at the end of the year, but you saw the flashes more consistently in the end.

To me, there are just so many reasons to look past the problems of last year and expect Kam to develop into a very good player.

JOHNNAVARREISMYHERO

July 22nd, 2015 at 2:01 AM ^

As the year went on, you saw signs of the light bulb turning on for him.   There were still mistakes towards the end of the year, but the flashes of what he can do when he just calmed down and remembered his talent were awesome to see.  

The fact that we could have (and should have)  won so many games playing guys 30+ minutes that at the beginning of the year looked to be mostly spot minute guys is a testament to how awesome our coach is.

If we had any kind of luck, we would have made the tournament without Levert and Walton finishing 12-6/11-7.

Beilein really deserved it man.  The guy is the best coach in the business.  

JOHNNAVARREISMYHERO

July 22nd, 2015 at 1:47 AM ^

He did improve quite a bit towards the end of the year.  He was decisive and looked confident.

I remember he took a few shots early in the shot clock (and was making all of them) against someone late in the year and I was like holy crap, things are starting to click with Chatman.

He also looks to be a guy that is still growing into his body.  Loved his crafitness and smooth movements going to the basket late in the year.  

I think he is going to make a big jump this year.  

True Blue Grit

July 21st, 2015 at 3:30 PM ^

a disappointment last season.  But he could easily bounce back to have a breakout season this year.  It depends on where his head is at and how hard he works in the offseason I suspect.  If he did have a breakout season, it would be a huge boost for Michigan's chances in the B10 this coming year.  He seems to possess the physical talent to do well though.  I still have high hopes for him. 

schreibee

July 21st, 2015 at 3:49 PM ^

Honestly, I'm not even reading this profile, because it can only be one of two things:

Depressing or Wishful Thinking

There's no "there" there to even analyze based upon his contributions his F season... of course as I type that I realize I meant F for Frosh, but as a grade it works as well.

A rare Beilein miss is what I'm considering Chatman - I'd love to be wrong though. Here's hoping...

 

Lanknows

July 21st, 2015 at 4:26 PM ^

Being good at a lot of things can sometimes mean being great at none.  When Kam was in high school -- playing at a very low level league, even for Oregon -- he was good at everything.  When he got to Michigan he wasn't good at anything, tried to do everything to compensate for it, and struggled to find his role. Unlike other freshman (especially shooters like Hardaway, Irvin, Stauskas) he wasn't just asked to go out and do one thing, he was tasked with far more. 

It didn't go well -- he wasn't ready -- and you could see him struggle with decisiveness. But the flashes were there.  He can rebound a bit, he can shoot a bit, he can pass and he's reasonably athletic and skilled for his size. John Beilein elected to start him early in the year and that man knows something about basketball. He had his moments on the court, and they came mostly at the end of the season. The stuff that you read about in his recruiting profile was there, it was just buried underneath the bad stuff that Alex detailed (turnovers, inefficiency, etc.)., but Chatman simply never looked comfortable on the court.

It reminded me a little of Jerod Ward when he got to Michigan, another big fish in a small pond who struggled to find which of his array of skills should be used. Going outside the family, I think of Draymond Green, who struggled as both an NBA rookie and freshman at MSU. Sometimes it takes the guys who do lots of things well a little more time than specialists

Moving forward, one can argue the bad stuff was temporary:  Youth, a bigger transition than normal (from a tiny school in Oregon to the Big Ten), poor conditioning/fitness, and uncertainty about role. All these played a factor in his struggles and all could easily disappear. The good stuff (size, skill, athleticism) plus a reported good attitude will be there to help Kam turn it around.

Prediction for '15-16:  Starting PF.

Color me an optimist. While I don't think Chatman will finish games, I think he will start them and be a major part of the rotation. Consider Walton, LeVert, Irvin, and Doyle as locks to start. What do those guys need around them?  It's not ball-handling, it's not scoring.  It's rebounding, it's defense, it's passing, it's finishing at the rim.

The counter argument is floor spacing (i.e., 3 point shooting - where Dawkins or Robinson would excel), but as you can see from his shot chart - Chatman was actually pretty good from the left corner.  One has to consider the defensive tradeoff (especially against bigger frontlines like Purdue and MSU) of a potentially marginal improvement in outside shooting.  Dawkins, last year anyway, was bad on the defensive end.  Robinson projects to be a liability on that end as well. You can go with Irvin, but then you're wearing him down and risking foul trouble for one of your best players. Chatman's a better fit.

This is where the argument for DJ Wilson goes -- but I think he's locked in at the 5 if for no other reason than Michigan needs 3 guys there and Wilson, like Chatman, needs to focus on bringing one specific thing to the table before he can be asked to do too much. Playing two (very different) positions for Beilein qualifies as too much.

So what can Chatman focus on doing well?  rebounding, defending, passing, and working around that left corner as a complementary piece to our "Big 3". What should he NOT do? Force shots and drives or try to be the engine of the offense. He's not "the man" on this team and won't be anytime soon.

If he slows down a bit and embraces a limited/complementary role, he absolutely has the skills to be a major asset to the Michigan program. He's not GR3 but he can do some of the same things on defense and he can be a more perimeter oriented version of a kickout threat. 

My argument would be that it's easier for Chatman to simplify and clarify his role if he works with the starting unit. That role would also allow Dawkins to be the first wing off the bench (like Irvin was in 2013), and along with Spike and whoever wins the backup center job (Donnal/Wilson) to form a nice tight 8-man unit that has been typical of Beilein teams. If Kam can give you 6-8 minutes to start off the game against the opposing team's best, that makes the rest of the team (i.e., the bench) a lot better.

------

By no means is this a lock, of course.  The competiton for minutes is going to be fierce behind the core rotation (Spike, Derrick, Caris, Aubrey, Zak, and the centers).  When in doubt Beilein tends to pick shooters, and Dawkins brings a high-flying transition finisher. But what I see with Kam is not only the overall potential, but the best match between team needs, physical capabilities, and skillset.

Kam has to get better - a lot better.  But all the ingredients are there. We saw Dawkins improve in leaps and bounds at the same age.  We've seen Stauskas go from a 3 point shooter who got locked down by Jordan Hulls to the best offensive player in the conference between freshman and sophomore years.  We've seen Hardaway embrace his role beyond scoring when placed beside NBA-players.  I have absolute faith in our coaching staff's ability to develop talent - and with Kam they will do it again.

I'm looking forward to seeing Kam drain jumpers off Caris/Derrick drives and Zak close outs. I look forward to seeing him in better shape, stronger, bodying up up opposing forwards or chasing them around the wings - as neeeded. I look forward to seeing him running in for rebounds as opponents occupy themselves with Doyle. I look forward to him being an asset on drive and kicks from the wing, but only when the defense makes it the obvious choice.

Kam developing is not only the best case scenario for him, but for this Michigan team as well. I think plugging him in as a starter - even if he only plays 10-15 minutes a game with Dawkins as our 6th man - is the best path forward.

 

HollywoodHokeHogan

July 21st, 2015 at 5:17 PM ^

That would be geat, but I'm not sure why we should think Chatman will be a better defender than Robinson, who is roughly the same size, or Dawkins, who seems more athletic. Dawkins was a poor defender, but so was Chatman. Part of that is freshmen learning rotations, but they should both improve at that.




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Lanknows

July 22nd, 2015 at 11:16 AM ^

It's about size.  Dawkins, I think, was/is/will be a better player than Chatman, but he's a much better fit at the 3.  You want a bigger guy than Dawkins (or Irvin) banging against opposing 4s. That's the only reason I think Chatman will start.  Dawkins, if he has to bang inside, is better off doing it against backups.

I agree with you that Dawkins has plenty of room to grow on the defensive end as well. I have high hopes for him there too, but I also thought THJ and GR3 should have been much better defenders than they ever were at Michigan.

Lanknows

July 22nd, 2015 at 11:52 AM ^

Robinson was not recruited by D1 schools of any note.  Chatman was recruited by many elite programs all over the country.  They are about the same height. Robinson is a far better shooter. So - why the big difference? 

Well, Chatman is a better dribbler and passer, but that's not going to get you offers from all around the country.

The biggest difference is clearly athleticism. Defense is a combination of effort, physical attributes, and awareness. Any objective analysis of Robinson puts into question his athleticism and how that will play into the transition to D1, especially on the defensive end.  Chatman looked tentative at times and confused often on D, but he wasn't physically overmatched, even as a freshman.

Furthermore, no one, not even the coaches, have suggested that Robinson will play the 4. Even though he is taller than GR3, Novak, etc.  He seems like a pure 3 in 2015-16, though that may evolve as he gets acclimated and some players move on.

JeepinBen

July 21st, 2015 at 3:52 PM ^

Let's see what it does. Stauskas (Stauskas?) was a spot up shooter as a freshman, became the B1G POY and #8 pick (Stauskas??).

Trey had a good freshman year, but became TREY after one summer of development. Etc. Etc. Etc.

Ronnie Kaye

July 21st, 2015 at 3:58 PM ^

This website has a weird fixation on the birthdate of basketball players, as if being a few months older makes a big difference. Yes, he was playing against guys three and four years older. It's called being a freshman.

Ronnie Kaye

July 21st, 2015 at 5:59 PM ^

Chatman was born on June 1, 1996. The standard timeframe for people in his high school class were born is from 12/01/95-11/30/96, putting him exactly in the middle of that cut-off zone. You're telling me that's a "huge" factor and that he would have had a noticeably different type of freshman season if he was born in February?

Blue Mike

July 21st, 2015 at 10:32 PM ^

Actually, in Oregon (and Michigan now), the cutoff for classes is September 1, not December 1.  So Kam is on the fringe of the very young for his class.  In fact, he is square in the target age where parents "red-shirt" their kids (boys especially) by holding them back from kindergarten, so they start when they are 6.  There is a lot of study about mental and physical maturity and when to start school. I side on the young side of things, but many don't.

So when you think that Kam could very realistically just be starting college this fall, a few months makes a big difference.

Ronnie Kaye

July 21st, 2015 at 10:36 PM ^

Oregon's laws make absolutely no difference in my argument. Dec. 1 is the common cutoff date in American high schools, thus putting him right in the middle of the normal freshman class age meaning it's not a real excuse at all. And still, the difference a few months makes is a dubious suggestion at best.

 

Lanknows

July 22nd, 2015 at 11:37 AM ^

What is the age difference between Dawkins and Chatman? Over a year.

What is the age difference between MAAR and LeVert? 6 days -- a lot less than the 2 year difference in elgibility.

What is the age difference between Spike Albrecht and LeVert? 2 years -- quite a disparity for two guys in the same class.

So yeah, a couple months isn't a big difference, but a couple years is.  These are extreme examples of age differences by class, but it illustrates the point that 'a few months' is underselling the issue. The effect is smaller as the age gap narrows, but no matter how you slice it Chatman was young for his class. Or, as I like to put it, "young for his age".

What you're missing is that the 'average' for a basketball recruit isn't going to be the 'average' for a typical student.  Michigan took two 5th year guys in their freshman class last year and has done so before. A lot of athletes tend to be old for their class in high school too, because of the significant physical advantage coming up through high school. 

If you asked McGary to play a year earlier he would have looked far less ready than he looked -- and even then, a guy who was a marginal backup in December looked like an all-american in March.

So yeah, a few months can matter, and a few YEARS can matter a whole hell of a lot.

BlueIsland

July 21st, 2015 at 10:35 PM ^

Most elite basketball players are held back a year in middle school so that they are more physically mature as seniors. For example I grew an 1 1/2 and put on a freshman (good) 20. Chatman will be more equipped physical this year compared to last year.

Michigan4Life

July 21st, 2015 at 4:26 PM ^

People forget that he's a 5* and chose Michigan over Arizona. He struggled to adjust to the level of competition which is understandable considering his HS plus had to sit out because of transfer rule. Kam flashes but can put it together. My hope is hell adjust to the speed of the game and starting getting more comfortable. He started to play better at the end of the season which is encouraging




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Lanknows

July 22nd, 2015 at 12:03 PM ^

I think it's more that people WON'T foreget that he is a 5*.  If he was a 3* kid or even at the level of DJ Wilson, say, people would not have the expectations they have. Without the expectations there would not be the disappointment, and without the disappointment people would have an open mind.

But yeah, people do forget that not every guy can come in and be an instant impact because we've had so much success with it lately.  But Jordan Morgan as a true freshman wasn't anywhere NEAR what he was 4 years later, and there's an infinite number of other examples outside the recent program history where that applies as well.

Perkis-Size Me

July 21st, 2015 at 5:46 PM ^

He looked like he started getting more comfortable with the speed of the game, and even his own game, by season's end.

Everyone struggled last year. Chatman has a clean slate in my book. Give him a summer of Camp Sanderson and let's see what he can do come this season. He should be much stronger and more comfortable with the system and his own game by November.




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remdog

July 21st, 2015 at 7:11 PM ^

last year to say the least. I am left wondering why he was rated so highly. Another poster brought up Jerod Ward. The disparity between ranking and performance is similar. In both cases, I don't see superior skills or physical ability to warrant 5 stars. I don't know how recruiting gurus could be so wrong. I suspect Beilein didn't think he was a 5 star and only picked him up after other top targets went elsewhere.

That being said, Beilein and others obviously see a potential star in Chatman. And Chatman has plenty of time to improve and live up to his lofty ranking. I do see his potential as well. He's shown flashes at times. If he gains confidence, I think he will improve significantly. I'm rooting for him.

remdog

July 21st, 2015 at 9:16 PM ^

but he was a very late commit after we whiffed on many other targets. Who knows though? Maybe Beilein wanted him the most all along. And again, I don't think Beilein would have taken him if he didn't believe he had great potential. Maybe those flashes last year were just a glimpse of greatness to come. I'm anxious to see him play this year and root him on.

BlueIsland

July 21st, 2015 at 10:47 PM ^

Jerod Ward definately warranted the lofty status he was given. His freshman year he walked into a cluster f*ck in regards to chemistry, too many guys with the same style of play without a point guard. Also, please don't forget three straight knee surgerys fresh, soph and junior years.

I actually wished Fisher didn't recruit Ward and Willie Mitchell for their sake. Maurice Taylor, Maceo Baston and Travis Conlan all signed in the early period, he should've stopped there. If you remember Bobby Crawford, Olivier St. Jean and Mahktar NdIye were all apart of the class before.

remdog

July 21st, 2015 at 11:59 PM ^

I forgot about the knee problems.  That certainly hampered his development.  But even when healthy, he didn't look anything like the #1 player in the country as he was rated.  He was athletic but less than fluid when attacking the rim.  He wasn't a great shooter.  And he was very passive as well.  Maybe he deserved a top fifty ranking but not anywhere close to #1 (even discounting the knee issues).

Lanknows

July 22nd, 2015 at 11:43 AM ^

Jerod Ward was a good college player who went on to play pro ball in Europe.  I'll take kids like that into the program in ANY recruiting class.

Don't let the recruiting hype override reality.  A 'disappointing' 5-star recruit who turns into an above average starter is better than an overacheiving 2-star bench guy. 

This kind of approach has people thinking Spike is a better basketball player than Walton and Novak was better than GR3.  Everybody loves the underdog, but Michigan has won with talent - just like everybody else.

Also - the coaching staff DID prioritize Chatman. He wasn't some late-season flyer like Dawkins and MAAR, or even a Plan B or C recruit like Wilson.

Frank Chuck

July 22nd, 2015 at 5:21 AM ^

In retrospect, Kameron Chatman should've redshirted. He simply wasn't ready to contribute. He needed the game to slow down for him and he needed to improve his body.

I don't know if he fits Kameron Chatman's statistical profile but Joe Alexander gives me hope for Chatman. Alexander had a limited (some would say "rough") freshman season but bounced back as a sophomore under Beilein and became a star as a junior under Huggins. Alexander was recognized as an honorable mention All-American and selected as a lottery pick. I'm hoping Chatman has a similar trajectory in college.

Here is Alexander's profile if anyone is interested:

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/joe-alexander-1.html

 

pojizegoge

July 22nd, 2015 at 9:03 AM ^

  

 
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HarbaughToKolesar85

July 22nd, 2015 at 10:38 AM ^

As BlueIsland pointed out Jerod Ward came into a horrible situation in regards to team chemistry. It was so bad that the players constantly came after Ward just to test the number one recruit label. This is fantastic if a guy has a personality like Trey Burke or Jalen Rose where the competition and doubt of others brings out their best. It is a horrible thing if a guy is more reserved and needs to be encouraged. Thankfully, John Beilein does a masterful job of creating unity among his players which started at Michigan from his first recruiting class.

Second, I think that the emergence of Derrick Walton will be huge for Kam, and Ricky Doyle, in particular, because they will be able to run an effective pick-and-roll which will give them some easy looks which should help increase their confidence.

 

Third, while I doubt Derrick Walton will be, or need to be, the same shooter as Talor Battle, I think that he has a similar skill set. Derrick is a good shooter who can steal the ball, push the tempo at the right time, and seemed to begin to come into his own before the injury. That is an encouragement re: the comparison between Brooks and Chatman. The closer Derrick Walton gets to his own ceiling the less pressure will be on the other players and the more easily guys like Chatman should be able to play to their strengths.