By The Numbers - Big 10 Ranks - Week 8
All numbers are points per game vs an average team. They are adjusted
for strength of opponent. No 1AA games or stats are included.
For more detailed questions on how the
numbers come about, click here.
Expected Points - Offense
Michigan falls from 1st to 3rd after putting up a net 8 points (10 scored -2 for the safety) on offense vs 26 expected, the third worst variance nationally last week. Illinois is several levels below the basement at -9 on the season. No team has done less with less. Despite having a significant disadvantage in field position, they have still managed to greatly underdeliver lower expectations.
Expected Points - Defense
Penn State moves to #1 in the country in points allowed vs expected at -13 on the season. Michigan drops just below Purdue into 5th while Illinois is again a distant 11th at +7 although their defense hasn't been buried in quite the whole that their offense has.
Offense - Season+
Despite last week's woeful performance, Michigan holds its #2 spot in the conference due largely to the strength of PSU's defense. Even though the Nittany Lioins come in 1st in the Big 10, they don't even crack the top 20 nationally. Once again, all together now, the Big 10 is not a good offensive conference this year.
Michigan does hold a solid lead in running game at nearly +4.5 and there virtual 0 in the passing game doesn't look so bad when you see only Penn St and Michigan St are above +1.5 for the season.
Defense - Season+
Michigan actually moves from 6th to 4th this week, an inconsequential move mostly due to the closely packed middle of the conference. Iowa, PSU and OSU are head and shoulders above the rest of the Big 10 and all 3 are in the top 11 nationally.
Michigan's overall numbers didn't change much although the run defense strengthened it rating and took a direct hit to its passing defense.
ST - All - Per Game
I think these numbers should be properly normalized this week. Michigan bumps past MSU into the #4 spot on the list at about +1 per game. The punt team is #1 in the Big 10 and the kicking game is #2 while the numbers are brought down by the poor punt return unit.
Team - Turnovers
Michigan falls to #9 in the conference as turnovers have cost the team 19 points on the season. They are 9th in fumbles lost, 5th in interceptions thrown, dead last in fumbles forced and 6th in passes intercepted. Pretty average on the interception front but terrible in both directions on the fumbles. At what point do the fumble gods turn in our favor?
Conference Rankings
Still sitting just behind the Big East at the bottom of the BCS auto-qualifiers. The offense rating nearly broke into the positives on the week while the defense held its #4 spot.
Expected Points - Offense
| Off | G | Expected Points | Actual Points | Diff | Drives |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Penn State | 7 | 21.31 | 26.71 | 5.40 | 10.29 |
| Purdue | 8 | 23.82 | 27.00 | 3.18 | 12.13 |
| Michigan | 7 | 24.83 | 27.29 | 2.45 | 12.43 |
| Wisconsin | 6 | 23.84 | 25.67 | 1.83 | 11.50 |
| Michigan State | 7 | 22.83 | 24.29 | 1.46 | 11.57 |
| Ohio State | 8 | 22.38 | 23.75 | 1.38 | 10.63 |
| Northwestern | 7 | 21.96 | 23.29 | 1.32 | 11.71 |
| Iowa | 7 | 24.84 | 22.57 | -2.27 | 11.29 |
| Indiana | 7 | 23.89 | 20.71 | -3.17 | 11.29 |
| Minnesota | 8 | 21.36 | 17.50 | -3.86 | 10.63 |
| Illinois | 6 | 19.10 | 10.33 | -8.77 | 10.50 |
Michigan falls from 1st to 3rd after putting up a net 8 points (10 scored -2 for the safety) on offense vs 26 expected, the third worst variance nationally last week. Illinois is several levels below the basement at -9 on the season. No team has done less with less. Despite having a significant disadvantage in field position, they have still managed to greatly underdeliver lower expectations.
Expected Points - Defense
| Def | G | Expected Points | Actual Points | Diff | Drives |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Penn State | 7 | 20.72 | 7.29 | -13.43 | 10.43 |
| Ohio State | 8 | 21.12 | 11.75 | -9.37 | 11.25 |
| Iowa | 7 | 19.27 | 11.29 | -7.99 | 10.71 |
| Purdue | 8 | 25.95 | 24.00 | -1.95 | 12.38 |
| Michigan | 7 | 26.71 | 25.00 | -1.71 | 12.71 |
| Northwestern | 7 | 23.87 | 24.14 | 0.27 | 11.71 |
| Wisconsin | 6 | 20.78 | 22.00 | 1.22 | 11.17 |
| Michigan State | 7 | 22.18 | 23.71 | 1.53 | 11.29 |
| Minnesota | 8 | 20.53 | 23.88 | 3.35 | 10.63 |
| Indiana | 7 | 21.23 | 25.14 | 3.92 | 11.00 |
| Illinois | 6 | 21.19 | 28.33 | 7.14 | 10.33 |
Penn State moves to #1 in the country in points allowed vs expected at -13 on the season. Michigan drops just below Purdue into 5th while Illinois is again a distant 11th at +7 although their defense hasn't been buried in quite the whole that their offense has.
Offense - Season+
| Off | G | Value | Rush | Pass | Yards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Penn State | 7 | 6.03 | 1.36 | 4.67 | 407.86 |
| Michigan | 7 | 4.46 | 4.27 | 0.18 | 355.57 |
| Michigan State | 7 | 2.85 | -0.96 | 3.82 | 385.29 |
| Wisconsin | 6 | 1.96 | 1.48 | 0.48 | 386.50 |
| Purdue | 8 | 1.56 | 0.08 | 1.48 | 397.50 |
| Minnesota | 8 | 0.24 | 0.37 | -0.12 | 288.75 |
| Ohio State | 8 | -0.68 | 0.85 | -1.53 | 357.75 |
| Iowa | 7 | -2.89 | -1.63 | -1.26 | 345.29 |
| Indiana | 7 | -3.09 | -2.13 | -0.96 | 351.57 |
| Northwestern | 7 | -3.85 | -4.88 | 1.03 | 384.29 |
| Illinois | 6 | -4.99 | 0.42 | -5.41 | 319.50 |
Despite last week's woeful performance, Michigan holds its #2 spot in the conference due largely to the strength of PSU's defense. Even though the Nittany Lioins come in 1st in the Big 10, they don't even crack the top 20 nationally. Once again, all together now, the Big 10 is not a good offensive conference this year.
Michigan does hold a solid lead in running game at nearly +4.5 and there virtual 0 in the passing game doesn't look so bad when you see only Penn St and Michigan St are above +1.5 for the season.
Defense - Season+
| Def | G | Value | Plays | Rush | Pass | Yards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa | 7 | 10.74 | 61.29 | 2.42 | 8.32 | 278.86 |
| Penn State | 7 | 9.99 | 59.29 | 4.19 | 5.80 | 245.29 |
| Ohio State | 8 | 9.45 | 66.88 | 1.57 | 7.89 | 279.50 |
| Michigan | 7 | 1.91 | 70.43 | -1.43 | 3.34 | 390.14 |
| Wisconsin | 6 | 1.74 | 59.83 | 3.24 | -1.50 | 336.50 |
| Purdue | 8 | 0.79 | 71.50 | -0.77 | 1.56 | 362.00 |
| Michigan State | 7 | -0.08 | 69.57 | 1.94 | -2.02 | 350.14 |
| Minnesota | 8 | -1.98 | 73.38 | -0.12 | -1.86 | 408.63 |
| Indiana | 7 | -3.39 | 72.57 | -1.24 | -2.15 | 395.29 |
| Northwestern | 7 | -4.50 | 63.86 | 0.49 | -4.99 | 357.29 |
| Illinois | 6 | -6.49 | 66.17 | -4.20 | -2.30 | 416.00 |
Michigan actually moves from 6th to 4th this week, an inconsequential move mostly due to the closely packed middle of the conference. Iowa, PSU and OSU are head and shoulders above the rest of the Big 10 and all 3 are in the top 11 nationally.
Michigan's overall numbers didn't change much although the run defense strengthened it rating and took a direct hit to its passing defense.
ST - All - Per Game
| Team | G | Total | Kick | KO | KR | Punt | PR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio State | 8 | 1.53 | 0.51 | 1.02 | 0.39 | 0.38 | -0.76 |
| Minnesota | 8 | 1.45 | 0.33 | 0.24 | 0.08 | 0.64 | 0.15 |
| Iowa | 7 | 1.39 | 0.61 | 0.33 | -0.23 | 0.59 | 0.09 |
| Michigan | 7 | 1.06 | 0.72 | -0.10 | 0.28 | 0.74 | -0.58 |
| Michigan State | 7 | 1.01 | 0.55 | 0.19 | 0.08 | -0.04 | 0.24 |
| Wisconsin | 6 | -0.12 | 0.19 | -0.35 | -0.43 | 0.63 | -0.15 |
| Illinois | 6 | -0.91 | -0.91 | 0.46 | -0.29 | 0.73 | -0.89 |
| Penn State | 7 | -1.07 | -0.32 | 0.34 | -0.37 | -0.56 | -0.16 |
| Indiana | 7 | -1.23 | -1.12 | -0.24 | 1.31 | -1.38 | 0.20 |
| Purdue | 8 | -1.40 | 0.84 | -0.01 | -0.96 | -0.61 | -0.67 |
| Northwestern | 7 | -3.08 | 0.56 | -1.04 | -1.21 | -0.71 | -0.68 |
I think these numbers should be properly normalized this week. Michigan bumps past MSU into the #4 spot on the list at about +1 per game. The punt team is #1 in the Big 10 and the kicking game is #2 while the numbers are brought down by the poor punt return unit.
Team - Turnovers
| Team | Fum Lost | Int Thrown | Fum Forced | Passes Int | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio State | -8.05 | -24.84 | 17.85 | 44.67 | 29.63 |
| Iowa | -3.29 | -36.61 | 22.10 | 41.56 | 23.76 |
| Minnesota | -19.49 | -22.92 | 34.76 | 28.90 | 21.25 |
| Indiana | -13.48 | -16.38 | 26.52 | 24.43 | 21.09 |
| Northwestern | -29.25 | -20.70 | 23.90 | 25.45 | -0.60 |
| Penn State | -11.31 | -19.97 | 11.34 | 17.72 | -2.22 |
| Michigan State | -19.06 | -18.02 | 16.78 | 15.87 | -4.43 |
| Wisconsin | -14.47 | -33.83 | 16.63 | 22.72 | -8.95 |
| Michigan | -27.15 | -21.59 | 7.12 | 22.63 | -18.99 |
| Purdue | -37.05 | -38.92 | 32.39 | 20.10 | -23.48 |
| Illinois | -17.04 | -26.84 | 11.54 | 2.64 | -29.70 |
Michigan falls to #9 in the conference as turnovers have cost the team 19 points on the season. They are 9th in fumbles lost, 5th in interceptions thrown, dead last in fumbles forced and 6th in passes intercepted. Pretty average on the interception front but terrible in both directions on the fumbles. At what point do the fumble gods turn in our favor?
Conference Rankings
| Conf | Total | Offense | Defense | ST | Pen | Yards | D Yards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEC | 6.47 | 2.14 | 4.32 | 0.11 | -0.19 | 369.43 | 327.35 |
| Big XII | 5.43 | 1.74 | 3.15 | 0.67 | -0.26 | 392.72 | 352.25 |
| PAC 10 | 4.38 | 1.77 | 2.27 | 0.48 | -0.27 | 375.51 | 364.19 |
| ACC | 2.78 | 1.61 | 1.46 | -0.46 | 0.33 | 355.01 | 353.33 |
| Big East | 1.91 | 1.30 | 1.00 | -0.41 | 0.05 | 366.54 | 352.31 |
| Big Ten | 1.63 | -0.01 | 1.88 | -0.14 | -0.21 | 364.50 | 349.07 |
| Mtn West | -0.90 | -1.46 | 0.40 | 0.03 | 0.27 | 356.55 | 357.08 |
| WAC | -3.17 | -0.75 | -2.38 | -0.10 | 0.10 | 388.82 | 392.58 |
| Ind | -5.40 | -0.18 | -5.47 | -0.52 | 1.55 | 343.09 | 389.02 |
| C USA | -6.65 | -2.09 | -3.64 | -0.78 | -0.29 | 361.47 | 405.59 |
| MAC | -6.85 | -2.49 | -2.56 | -1.84 | 0.08 | 342.92 | 380.92 |
| Sun Belt | -8.75 | -2.49 | -5.19 | -1.15 | 0.16 | 378.11 | 413.34 |
Still sitting just behind the Big East at the bottom of the BCS auto-qualifiers. The offense rating nearly broke into the positives on the week while the defense held its #4 spot.
October 30th, 2009 at 2:21 PM ^
"they have still managed to greatly under deliver lower expectations" = pure comedy gold.
October 30th, 2009 at 2:55 PM ^
that our TO problems have been almost entirely due to fumbles. Even with the freshmen, that's still randomness fucking with us. Which is much preferable to a real talent problem, all things considered.
October 30th, 2009 at 5:21 PM ^
#11 Expected points - offense
#11 Expected points - defense
#11 Offense - season+
#11 Defense - season+
#7 ST - all - per game
#11 Team - turnovers
I'm detecting a large degree of suck.
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