Cool chart. It's disconcerting to see that the offense still stagnates when Gardner goes under center.
"I'm unhappy because we sucked." - Al Borges did not say this, but was thinking it.
As we continue our transition to "MANBALL," I was curious to see, statistically, how that transition is going. The questions I'm trying to answer are: "What is this team good at? What are they bad at? What is the logic behind the play-calling? Are we ready to be a MANBALL team?"
What follows is a chart (based on Brian's UFR) of all the formations used against UConn, the type of plays that were run, and the averages. It's a big chart. It's also copied from my post in the UFR thread, as are most of my comments below it. A few notes:
- Plays that had a pre-snap penalty or penalty other than pass interference are not counted.
- Pass interference is counted, since it is assumed the play was successful enough to draw a penalty
- Sacks are rightfully categorized as passing yards
- Yes, I'm aware that this analysis has limited variables and misses important data points. If you want to add something, please do.
|Ace H twins||1||0||0.0||1||0||0.0|
|Ace twin TE||2||17||8.5||1||0||0.0||3||17||5.7|
|Ace twins stack||1||0||0.0||1||0||0.0|
|Ace twins twin TE||2||16||8.0||1||-16||-16.0||3||0||0.0|
|I-Form twins stack||1||2||2.0||1||2||2.0|
|Pistol FB twins||1||-1||-1.0||1||-1||-1.0|
|Shotgun 2TE twins||1||9||9.0||1||9||9.0|
|Shotgun 3-wide jet||2||14||7.0||2||14||7.0|
|Shotgun 4-wide tight||2||14||7.0||2||14||7.0|
|Shotgun double stacks||2||20||10.0||2||20||10.0|
|Shotgun empty TE||1||6||6.0||1||6||6.0|
|Shotgun trips TE||5||27||5.4||5||27||5.4|
|Shotgun twin TE||1||0||0.0||1||0||0.0|
While it doesn't take into account some easy missed plays and some heroic efforts to make something out of nothing, the chart does show that we seem to be much more successful when we're not under center. We ran 35 of our 68 plays from the pistol or shotgun, and the shotgun was our best bet.
I agree with Brian's conclusions that this team benefits greatly from being in the gun. I'd love to see more MANBALL out of the Pistol, but the under center stuff didn't work for most of the game.
That said, the Ace formation gave us critical rushing yards during our comeback. I believe it was effective because UConn feared we might actually pass when we were behind in the 4th quarter. When they know we're going to run, the under center stuff just doesn't work.
For those of you calling for more simplicity--you have a point. We used 26 different formations for 68 plays.
Some interesting data points:
- We are really efficient in the goal line set. That's because DG is running, and he's good at it.
- The Ace set worked fine for running (mostly late), but the passing ruined it. Some of that is on DG, so this set might improve.
- The I-Form was generally bad, and the Big set was terrible. A big play on a PA pass was missed by DG though, so it's not quite as bad as it looks.
- Shotgun was our most common set with 31 plays.
- Not much Pistol at all, and from the plays we did run, it doesn't look like we're practicing this much.
We had 26 different sets...and then wonder why our very young interior line is having problems? Our young TE's are having problems...I think this has a lot to do with our problems. Running 26 different sets...Curious, how many does wisconsin run in an ave game? How many has Minnesota shown? Just wondering.
When we go 3 WR's we do really well. More, please.
nice to see what you are seeing (e.g., what the hell is I-Form Big?).
BTW, nice work. Thanks for posting.
If Al is such a big NFL watcher (per his own words), he should go directly to shotgun and only sprinkle under-center for variety. NFL guys know 1 mantra: use what works.
Philosophies and rigid styles die quickly in the NFL.
looks back at his summer research that was highlighted in the SI College Season Preview issue. Al spends alot of time looking at the trends in college football. While the SI article talked mostly about the spread offense and the hurry up style being used by teams, I am hoping Al applies this effort to our own offense. We need to take advantage of what we are good at, pull back to these core principles, and build week from week to enhance the offense. We are in a great postition to improve week by week to get ready for a tough November.
I have not been a big fan of Al. This offense has been searching for an identity since hes got here. What is this offense...spread or pro style? Pick one that works and master it!
My opinion: Scrap the pro style, you have an athletic QB use him effeciently in the gun and it will open up lanes for the RB's.
are trying to gradually turn into a pro style team. Unfortunately that idea is hurting the 2013 team in hopes that the 2014 team won't have to learn a whole new system. I would hope that pro style would be used less in the 2nd half of 2013, then make the transition next year.