DCC: A Closer Look at Todd Orlando

Submitted by alum96 on

With Barry Odom off the board, it's a good time to look at the other somewhat similar candidate.  A bit older, quite a bit more experienced, and more East coast oriented we take a look at Todd Orlando.

Image result for tony orlando

 

Err....Todd Orlando

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Won't rehash the evaluation process but here is the post; won't rehash how Mattison and Durkin compare - go check it out on the Odom post if you missed it.

Todd is a bit off the radar in that he doesn't even have a Wikipedia page yet.  He was born in Pittsburgh, and went to college at Wisconsin where he played ILB.  However since then he has been off to other parts of the U.S. mostly on the East Coast.  He is approx 45 (gradauted college in 94)  After 2 years coaching at the HS level, he coached at Penn University then was a LB coach at UConn with sir Randy Edsall.  Then he jumped to DC in 2006 and has held that job since at various places.

DC career:

  • UConn 2006-2010
  • Florida Intl 2011-2012
  • Utah State 2013-2014
  • Houston 2015

Interesting to note that Utah State is starting to become a "cradle of coaches" the past 7-8 years - both HCs and coordinators.   His precedessor at DC at Utah State was one Dave Aranda now at Wisconsin.

Current salary is a staggering $500K which for a non P5 coordinator is amazing; I think a few MAC HC make less.  Houston is really funnelling serious money into their football program with the reported $3M they want to pay Herman if he stays.  To put that in perspective I believe Durkin was being paid $530K at Florida.

Chart? (channeling Brian)

Chart.

Well before the chart - same caveats for Odom. 

Now keep in mind you have to grade these people on a curve.  The type of talent Florida and Michigan get is different from Wisconsin Minnesota Missouri which is also different then Utah State or Memphis.   If you watch EPL it is like judging Manchester United vs Newcastle.  If Newcastle finishes 7th its considered a near championship year since slots 1-5 in EPL are basically the same 5 teams annually.  If Man U finishes 7th its a disaster.  If you don't watch soccer that just made no sense but trust me, you have to grade on a curve.  Also ACC and Big 10 defenses have it easier in general than the other 3 conferences due to quality of QBs and lack of spread offenses that put up big points.

Now chart. (Italics are years bracketed around his stay)

  dFEI dS&P+ Tot Def
UConn      
2005 x 27  
2006 x 70  
2007 20 34  
2008 8 13  
2009 56 62 62
2010 40 63 58
2011 23 34 51
       
FIU      
2010 42 82 61
2011 54 41 30
2012 75 64 66
2013 109 116 94
       
Utah State      
2012 14 10 14
2013 9 6 12
2014 15 32 30
2015 45 32 23
       
Houston      
2014 73 70 20
2015 31 68 53

Notes - FEI didn't start until 2007, and I got tired of researching so didn't do his NCAA stats at UConn all the way back to 2006.... only went to 2009.

 

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So what do we see above?  Remember the more data you have the more bullet holes one can find.  It is a lot like a backup QB - he is pretty sexy until you actually see him on the field most of the time.  Likewise coordinators with 3-4 years of data have less holes than guys with 10.  So keep that in mind.

UConn (2006-2010)

For a Big East team UConn had excellent defenes in 2007-2008; his 2nd and 3rd year there.  This was before the P5 conferences but the Big East was the ugly stepchild conference so it was partially a power conference and partially a basketball conference.  So high rankings in advanced stats are pretty impressive considering this was the "6th best conference" and in today's terms was probably more like the AAC x 1.20.  There was some pullback in 2009-2010 but still for UConn level talent this is not bad.  UM had #s like this with way more talent in Mattison's 3rd year as DC.  So 2 excellent years, 2 good years and his 1st year was meh.

FIU (2011-2012)

Again, caveat it's FIU.  If I see a MAC level school which is basically FIU with a defense ranked near 50 that is again like Everton finishing in the top 6 in EPL.  He inherited a pretty solid defense (for that level of program)... and it remained steady at that solid level.  Year after he left (2013) it turned into Indiana D.

During his two years at FIU, Orlando mentored five players who earned various all-Sun Belt Conference honors a total of seven times, including safety Jonathan Cyprien and defensive lineman Tourek Williams who both earned first-team all-league honors. Cyprien was selected by the Jacksonville Jaguars with the 33rd pick of the 2013 NFL Draft.

During his first year at Florida International in 2011, the Panthers' defense ranked 13th nationally in pass efficiency defense (111.98), 14th in scoring defense (19.46 ppg), tied for 15th in sacks (2.69 pg), 22nd in rushing defense (118.08 ypg) and 30th in total defense (344.69 ypg). In 2012, FIU ranked 36th nationally in rushing defense (140.83 ypg).

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Utah State (2013-2014)

The state of Utah has some good defenses excluding BYU.  Utah State had Andersen as HC in 2012 and Aranda as DC - both defensive guys and they had an elite defense for that sort of conference.  Orlando came in under a new regime once Andersen left for Wisconsin and the defense remained elite in 2013.  It fell a bit but within the context of Mountain West was still "quite good" in 2014.  After he left (2015) Utah State remained "quite good"

Looking at 2014 Utah State the defense contained just about everyone except Boise State (50 pts) and Tennessee (38 pts).  When facing peer group in MWC they generally gave up 7-14 pts with a few games of 20-21 pts.

His attacking defense was fourth nationally with 49 sacks on the year and second nationally with 114 tackles for loss as Utah State advanced to back-to-to-back bowl games during Orlando’s stay in Logan, Utah. In his two-year span with USU, Orlando’s defense ranked eighth nationally with 59 turnovers, ranking 10th nationally in 2014 with 30 turnovers including 19 interceptions, a number that ranked eighth-best nationally.

Orlando’s 2014 defense ranked 17th nationally and second in the Mountain West with a pass efficiency defense of 111.42 while its rushing defense led the league with an average of 130.7 yards per game. His total defense was second in the league with 356.1 yards per game, bolstered by a defensive group that led the conference with four First Team All-MWC selections, representing all three levels of the defense - defensive linemen, linebackers and defensive backs.

2013 Utah State was similar in a lot of games with 14 or less given up, incl only 14 to USC.  Exceptions were 30 to Utah, 31 to BYU, 34 to Boise State.  Again, Utah State is not getting the talent those team do. 

During his first season at Utah State, Orlando's Aggie defense ranked first in the Mountain West and seventh in the nation in scoring allowing just 17.1 points per game, the second-fewest allowed by an Aggie defense since 1971. USU also ranked first in the Mountain West and eighth in the nation in rushing defense (106.7 ypg), its fewest allowed since 1968, first in the Mountain West and 12th in the nation in total defense (330.9 ypg), and first in the Mountain West and 15th in the nation in passing efficiency defense (113.2).

Utah State's 2013 defense also ranked sixth in the nation in the red zone, allowing opponents to score just 68.9 percent of the time, including just 19 touchdowns, to rank second nationally. Furthermore, USU's defense ranked seventh in the nation in forcing three-and-outs with 5.6 per game, while its 7.6 tackles per loss per game ranked 10th nationally.

USU's defense also ranked 11th nationally in third-down conversions at 32.6 percent.Utah State was also the only team in the nation not to allow a touchdown run of 10 or more yards in 2013, and allowed just two 100-yard rushers, while limiting its opponents to just 13 points following 16 turnovers.

Utah State is actually a pretty good MWC program at this point.

Houston (2015)

The 1 year at Houston shows very wonky data.  The FEI data showed  a huge improvement; I tend to lean to FEI myself. (Michigan 2015 was #19 in FEI).  The S&P+ data showed no improvement (Michigan 2015 was #2 in S&P+).  The NCAA data which is nothing more than yards given up per game showed a regression.  Now that could be due to the Houston offense scoring so much vs 2014 and the defense being on the field much more and thus giving up more drives, and more yards.  I havent' done the homework of Houston 2014 O vs Houston 2015 O but let's just say the Houston 2014 coach (Levine) was fired and the 2015 coach was Herman.  A quick look shows Houston scored 35+ in 11 of its 12 games.  So it's a safe assumption the offense was much better and the D was on the field more.  So only looking at advanced stats it was either a great improvement (FEI) or flattish (S&P+).

In terms of P5 opponents Houston won 34-31 vs a meh Louisville, and won 34-0 vs a bad offensive team in Vandy.  In terms of solid teams they beat Memphis 35-34 and Navy 52-31.  So they gave up points but again, it's Houston.

 

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So what are you telling me?

He doesn't have a wikipedia page yet, someone really should start that up for him.

Yes besides that though.

Good question.  His #s are generally good - honestly it's hard to go into a situation in 1 year and turn it around, especially if you are not sitting around on a pile of under coached 4* talent like Mattison walked into. 

We were a bit giddy about Odom but Odom's 1st year at Memphis was very meh - worse than any year Orlando had in 10 years.  But he was taking over a crap defense at Memphis.  Odon's 2nd year at Memphis showed improvement was about equal with some of Orlando's lower end years.  His 3rd year was similar to a lot of Orlando's good year.  So what I am saying is Orlando has had a lot of years better than Odom.

Why am I comparing the 2?  Because Odom had a small sample size and again it's easy to look at just the 2 good years of Odom, 1 at a P5 with an established NFL pipeline of defensive players @ Missouri.  Orlando has never had such a luxury.  The closest thing he had was UConn (!) where excluding year 1 (again this was 10 years ago and he knows a lot more now than he did then) he had 2 excellent years and 2 good years.   At Utah State he continued the fine tradition of Aranda.  (and don't discount that - sometimes a new coach comes in and torpedos a hell of a good situation) So he "feels" like he could give you a very good Aranda type progression at a P5 blueblood.

And Tom Herman likes him.

Stick around factor?

He is likely to stick around a while.  By a while I mean more than 2 years.  But without a lot of info out on him, difficult to tell his eventual aspirations.  I imagine if he is not plucked up by a P5 team soon he would just follow Herman around for a while as Herman progresses up the food chain into a P5 conference.

Footprint?

Knows the midwest as a kid and as a young adult; knows the Big 10 as a player.  Doesn't have that knowledge as a coach (HS coach relations) - he would be mostly an East coast guy who could help in that New Jersey area and maybe help you get a Polynesian or two out of Utah.

System?

4-3

Various reference articles and snippets (not many on this guy):

This guy evaluated Orlando post 2013 for the Cal DC job and did a good job of showing pros and cons.

With Oregon apparently hiring from within, Cal seems to have the inside track to hiring the best available defensive coordinator candidate out here. One of the potential candidates that's been floated out there is Utah State defensive coordinator Todd Orlando, who is attracting a bit of attention after an impressive season.

You can see pretty consistent production in all facets for Orlando's units. They were strong against either the run or the pass and sometimes both. They were solid in pushing offenses behind the line of scrimmage, which is particularly impressive in the MWC. What's most impressive is how Orlando kept opposing offenses out of the end zone--almost every year he would produce a top 50 scoring defense.

For those not happy about the 4-3, Orlando generally manages to find success with his own 4-3.

Orlando stepped into a pretty ideal situation in Utah State. Dave Aranda left for Wisconsin along with Gary Andersen, but left Orlando with a lot of impressive talent, particularly four of the team's five leading tacklers and three top linebackers (who were the top three tacklers this season). Seven of Utah State's eleven top tacklers were seniors.

The anomalous data point is his final year at Florida International in 2012, where Orlando returned most of his defense but saw the team regress defensively, costing the Panthers several chances at victories and another return bowl berth. It's a bit concerning, but then you realize it's Florida International and winning seasons don't come around all that often (two in 12 years).

What's most concerning is the level of competition. Mid-decade Big East wasn't exactly a cauldron of college football seismic activity. His record against the best teams wasn't exactly sterling.

The nice news is that Utah State did provide Orlando with a set of decent to impressive offenses to work against in the Mountain West.

 

He sounds like a football coach.... who would "relate to the kids.

 

Comments

alum96

December 3rd, 2015 at 11:58 PM ^

Here are the stats for a guy who was right now is one of the most coveted DCs in the country who finally got access to blue blood talent in 2014-2015.

He had 3 years of experience as a DC only - both at solid (not great) P5 schools.  He never had to be a DC at a non P5 where a rank of "30" would be considered excellent.  This is how his data points looked at a DC in 2011-2013.  He would have been laughed off the board.

  dFEI dS&P+ Tot Def
P5 School #1    
2011 49 55 15
2012 12 16 15
       
P5 School #2    
2013 100 82 76

If you want a unicorn who has 7 years of top 10 defenses go get Kirby Smart to quit Georgia and come here to be DC I guess.  Or land Pruitt or Shoop if 4 years works.  After that you have to go find the up and comers. 

getsome

December 5th, 2015 at 6:49 PM ^

"If you want a unicorn who has 7 years of top 10 defenses go get Kirby Smart to quit Georgia and come here to be DC I guess.  Or land Pruitt or Shoop if 4 years works.  After that you have to go find the up and comers."

 

this concept seems foreign to a surprising number of fans for some reason.   michigan will always be one of the more desirable programs and harbaugh is a great head coach but that does not necessarily equate to the program hiring only the most popular coaching candidates with the most impressive resumes - theres plenty of other factors at play.  

the above comment re unicorns and up and comers sums it up well

Humen

December 4th, 2015 at 12:32 AM ^

Don't forget--we played this guy.

The 2010 offense (vintage RR-coached Denard) won it for us 30-10. 

Robinson was 19-22 (!!!) for 186 yards and 1 TD. He also ran 29 times for 197 yards and 1 TD. 

Game recap: http://espn.go.com/ncf/recap?gameId=302470130

 

Takeaway: nothing really. The 2010 offense was elite...until it wasn't. It does make me wonder about his ability to stop the spread, but UConn...

 

 

 

alum96

December 4th, 2015 at 12:51 PM ^

I need to keep stressing this "curve" thing and mention Aston Villa (UConn, Utah State) v Man United (UM, OSU).  The ave recruiting class of UConn football is btw 75 and 90. 

http://connecticut.247sports.com/Season/2008-Football/Commits

http://connecticut.247sports.com/Season/2009-Football/Commits

http://connecticut.247sports.com/Season/2010-Football/Commits

To have a top 20 FEI D (which he did 4x in 10 years.... GMatt did it once with UM's talent) is impressive.  And yes you expect a P5 offense loaded with 4 stars to put up 30 against a bunch of guys ranked 2 star with only 2-3 kids a class ranked even near 1000 nationally and the rest below.  I mean getting a guy like Gant would be a "big pull" for the programs he coached.

That's actually another reason what Gary Patterson was doing at TCU was incredible about 7-10 yrs ago.  He had top 10 defenses with classes in the 60s/70s when in a non P5.  Obviously he has proven to be a top 10 coach down the road.

Mr Miggle

December 4th, 2015 at 12:43 AM ^

Not that we can't top it, but that Houston will try to keep him, like they've done with Herman. Perhaps more important is that Herman got him that deal. He figures to be moving on to a big time gig very soon and I would expect him to bring Orlando with him. He's got more reason to stay put than most other realistic candidates.

Other things being roughly equal, I'd prefer a coach with success using highly ranked players against quality opposition. Making do with less outside of Power 5 schools, shows he can coach, but it also means he'll have to adapt to a new level, one more question mark.

 

EGD

December 4th, 2015 at 1:18 AM ^

Another data point on Orlando is that he appears to be somewhat of an accomplished LB coach as well. His Utah State defense put two LBs (Kyler Fackrell and Nick Vigil) on the all-Mountain West team both years he was there, and he had another all-conference LB this year (Elandon Roberts) at Houston. Vigil was a 2-star on Rivals, the other two guys were unranked prospects. I didn't go back further than 2013, but the recent stuff is probably more relevant anyway.

CoachBP6

December 4th, 2015 at 4:03 AM ^

Harbaugh will Harbaugh, and Hackett will Hackett. Translation- We will land a great DC because Harbaugh is one of the best at getting his position coaches & coordinators promotions & Hackett will master the negotiation and finish him with his checkbook.

Yes.



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alum96

December 4th, 2015 at 12:38 PM ^

Nah

Kevin Clune, who has 23 years of coaching experience, including seven as a coordinator, is in his first year as Utah State’s defensive coordinator and sixth year overall with the program.

Clune spent the 2014 season as the defensive coordinator at Hawai’i as the Rainbow Warriors defense gave up 26.8 points and 418.2 yards per game, an improvement from the 2013 season, when Hawai’i allowed 38.8 points and 494.7 yards a game.

Clune previously spent five years at Utah State (2009-13) as its linebackers coach, helping the Aggies to three-straight bowl games and a 2012 Western Athletic Conference championship.

MGoJeezy

December 4th, 2015 at 11:57 AM ^

Give Harbs the keys to the kingdom in regards to the AD search as well, and as a friend said "put a statue of him up next to BO, 3 Nat'l championships later"

alum96

December 4th, 2015 at 12:41 PM ^

I was actually thinking about Shoop as I wrote this and even though he has had really well ranked defenses at PSU and Vandy, PSU struggled badly against OSU's spread too.  I think Cardale played 3Qs against PSU and it was somethihng like 21-10.  Then Barrett went in, in 4th Q and OSU blitzed them - think JT had 100 yds running in the 4th Q alone.

So the clucking about Shoop would even be there "solid guy but can't stop OSU either!"

I am sure it more nuanced then this but it is boggling the OSU offense is so successful even against good Ds while rich rod's UM O, which I assume is conceptually similar, got jailsexed by any legit D.

EGD

December 4th, 2015 at 9:15 PM ^

One thing Rich Rod never really had at M was a Steve Slaton level RB (Toussaint was young and mostly injured before 2011), let alone an Ezekiel Elliott. Plus Denard was never great at reading defensive linemen (or passing). Still, a big part of the reason Rich Rod's offenses had problems was turnovers--not necessarily that they couldn't move the ball. Rich Rod also had lousy FG kickers, so a lot of drives came up empty because we missed a FG or got stopped on 4th down when a team with a reasonable kicker would have taken 3.