Big Ten Recruiting Rankings with projected star values
Ed-S: Bumped to diary. Much of the content is from Ace's but there's good work done here.
Some people have been asking for this change for a while, so I decided to make it as a seperate post. I know it's not a very big deal, but it's a very quick process so I figured why not.
I took Ace's Big Ten Recruiting Rankings and applied a simple method to project NR recruits in an effort to make the rankings more accurate. The vast majority of NR recruits will have rankings by the end of the recruiting cycle, so with this in mind I gave them the star values I deemed appropriate. If a NR recruit was given a 4-star ranking by one site, the NR is substituted for with a 3-star ranking. If a NR recruit is a 3-star to one site, he is given a 2-star ranking. The lone recruit who was an NR across the board was given 1.5 stars. This incorporates the fact that a site doesn't like the NR recruit as much, but remains relatively realistic, as there are hardly any recruits with a 2 star difference across sites. The NR is replaced by the projected ranking number, in parenthesis.
Big Ten+ Recruiting Class Rankings |
|||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rank |
School |
# |
Rivals Avg |
Scout Avg |
24/7 Avg |
ESPN Avg |
Avg Avg^ |
1 |
Michigan |
17 |
3.76 |
4.06 |
3.76 |
3.88 |
3.87 |
2 |
Ohio State |
9 |
4.00 |
3.89 |
3.78 |
3.78 |
3.86 |
3 |
Notre Dame |
10 |
3.30 |
3.50 |
3.70 |
3.80 |
3.58 |
4 |
Penn State |
8 |
3.44 |
3.19 |
3.31 |
3.44 |
3.35 |
5 |
Michigan State |
7 |
3.29 |
3.14 |
3.14 |
3.14 |
3.18 |
6 |
Nebraska |
4 |
3.75 |
3.50 |
3.25 |
3.50 |
3.50 |
7 |
Iowa |
3 |
3.33 |
3.00 |
3.00 |
3.00 |
3.08 |
8 |
Wisconsin |
3 |
3.00 |
3.00 |
3.00 |
3.00 |
3.00 |
9 |
Illinois |
4 |
2.75 |
2.75 |
2.50 |
2.25 |
2.56 |
10 |
Northwestern |
1 |
4.00 |
4.00 |
4.00 |
4.00 |
4.00 |
11 |
Minnesota |
1 |
3.00 |
3.00 |
3.00 |
2.00 |
2.75 |
12 |
Indiana |
0 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
13 |
Purdue |
0 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
^The average of the average rankings of the three recruiting services (aka the previous three columns). The figure is calculated based on the raw numbers and then rounded, so the numbers above may not average out exactly (go16blue: to save time I just used the rounded numbers for the averages).
#1 Michigan - 17 Commits |
||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Name |
Position |
State |
Rivals |
Scout |
24/7 |
ESPN |
Patrick Kugler |
OL |
PA |
4 |
5 |
4 |
4 |
Shane Morris |
QB |
MI |
4 |
5 |
4 |
4 |
Dymonte Thomas |
S |
OH |
4 |
5 |
4 |
4 |
Kyle Bosch |
OL |
IL |
4 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
Jake Butt |
TE |
OH |
4 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
Chris Fox |
OL |
CO |
4 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
Ben Gedeon |
LB |
OH |
4 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
Mike McCray |
LB |
OH |
4 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
Logan Tuley-Tillman |
OL |
IL |
4 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
Wyatt Shallman |
ATH |
MI |
4 |
4 |
4 |
3 |
Taco Charlton |
DE |
OH |
4 |
3 |
4 |
4 |
David Dawson |
OL |
MI |
4 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
Jourdan Lewis |
CB |
MI |
4 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
Gareon Conley |
CB |
OH |
3 |
4 |
3 |
4 |
DeVeon Smith |
RB |
OH |
3 |
4 |
3 |
4 |
Jaron Dukes |
WR |
OH |
3 |
4 |
3 |
4 |
Khalid Hill |
TE |
MI |
3 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
All but two Michigan commits—Wyatt Shallman and Khalid Hill—get four stars from ESPN, with 11 earning a spot in the ESPN 150. Hill is now the only commit who doesn't receive a four-star rating from at least one recruiting service, while 11 are consensus four-stars-or-better.
UPDATE: Thanks to Twitter follower chris_connon for pointing out that David Dawson, Jourdan Lewis, and Jaron Dukes all got upgraded to four stars on Scout. Michigan now has a Scout average over 4 and the highest combined average of any B1G school.
#2 Ohio State - 9 Commits |
||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Name |
Position |
State |
Rivals |
Scout |
24/7 |
ESPN |
Cameron Burrows |
CB |
OH |
5 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
Jalin Marshall |
ATH |
OH |
4 |
5 |
5 |
4 |
Marcus Baugh |
TE |
CA |
4 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
Evan Lisle |
OL |
OH |
4 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
Billy Price |
DT |
OH |
4 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
Eli Woodard |
CB |
NJ |
4 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
Ezekiel Elliott |
RB |
MO |
4 |
4 |
3 |
4 |
Jayme Thompson |
S |
OH |
4 |
3 |
3 |
4 |
Tracy Sprinkle |
DE |
OH |
3 |
3 |
3 |
(2) |
The Buckeyes got a commitment from in-state DE Tracy Sprinkle today, giving them their first non-four-star commit.
#3 Notre Dame - 10 Commits |
||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Name |
Position |
State |
Rivals |
Scout |
24/7 |
ESPN |
Hunter Bivin |
OL |
KY |
4 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
Steven Elmer |
OL |
MI |
4 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
Malik Zaire |
QB |
OH |
4 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
Mike McGlinchey |
OL |
PA |
3 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
Colin McGovern |
OL |
IL |
3 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
Jacob Matuska |
DE |
OH |
3 |
3 |
4 |
3 |
Devin Butler |
CB |
DC |
3 |
3 |
3 |
4 |
James Onwualu |
WR |
MN |
3 |
3 |
3 |
4 |
Corey Robinson |
WR |
TX |
3 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
Rashad Kinlaw |
ATH |
NJ |
3 |
(3) |
4 |
4 |
The Irish are also putting together a very solid class, with only Corey Robinson not getting four stars from at least one service.
#4 Penn State - 8 Commits |
||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Name |
Position |
State |
Rivals |
Scout |
24/7 |
ESPN |
Adam Breneman |
TE |
PA |
4 |
5 |
4 |
4 |
Christian Hackenberg |
QB |
VA |
4 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
Greg Webb |
DT |
NJ |
4 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
Garrett Sickels |
DE |
NJ |
4 |
3 |
4 |
4 |
Ross Douglas |
CB |
OH |
4 |
3 |
3 |
4 |
Brendan Mahon |
OL |
NJ |
4 |
3 |
3 |
4 |
Curtis Cothran |
DE |
NJ |
(2) |
(2) |
3 |
(2) |
Andrew Nelson |
OL |
PA |
(1.5) |
(1.5) |
(1.5) |
(1.5) |
The Nittany Lions add in-state lineman Andrew Nelson.
#5 Michigan State - 7 Commits |
||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Name |
Position |
State |
Rivals |
Scout |
24/7 |
ESPN |
Jon Reschke |
LB |
MI |
4 |
4 |
4 |
(3) |
Shane Jones |
LB |
OH |
4 |
3 |
3 |
(3) |
Caleb Benenoch |
OL |
TX |
3 |
3 |
3 |
4 |
Gerald Holmes |
RB |
MI |
3 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
Jalyn Powell |
S |
OH |
3 |
3 |
3 |
(2) |
R.J. Shelton |
RB |
WI |
3 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
Damion Terry |
QB |
PA |
(3) |
(3) |
3 |
4 |
The Spartans add Shane Jones—who held a Michigan offer, but not a committable one post-McCray—and Damion Terry. Strangely, neither Jones nor Jon Reschke are ranked by ESPN.
#6 Nebraska - 4 Commits |
||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Name |
Position |
State |
Rivals |
Scout |
24/7 |
ESPN |
Marcus McWilson |
S |
OH |
4 |
4 |
3 |
(3) |
Josh Banderas |
LB |
NE |
4 |
3 |
4 |
4 |
Tre'vell Dixon |
ATH |
LA |
4 |
3 |
3 |
4 |
A.J. Natter |
DE |
WI |
3 |
4 |
3 |
3 |
The Huskers add A.J. Natter. Tre'vell Dixon gets three stars from Scout.
#7 Iowa - 3 Commit |
||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Name |
Position |
State |
Rivals |
Scout |
24/7 |
ESPN |
David Kenney |
DE |
IN |
4 |
3 |
3 |
4 |
Delano Hill |
S |
MI |
3 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
Derrick Willies |
WR |
IL |
3 |
3 |
3 |
(2) |
Derrick Willies gets three stars from Scout.
#8 Wisconsin - 3 Commits |
||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Name |
Position |
State |
Rivals |
Scout |
24/7 |
ESPN |
Garret Dooley |
LB |
IL |
3 |
3 |
3 |
4 |
Austin Ramesh |
ATH |
WI |
3 |
3 |
4 |
3 |
T.J. Watt |
ATH |
WI |
3 |
3 |
(2) |
(2) |
Austin Ramesh and T.J. Watt pick up three-star ratings from Scout.
#9 Illinois - 4 Commits |
||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Name |
Position |
State |
Rivals |
Scout |
24/7 |
ESPN |
Christian DiLauro |
TE |
OH |
3 |
3 |
3 |
(2) |
Dillan Cazley |
CB |
IL |
3 |
3 |
2 |
3 |
Kendrick Foster |
RB |
IL |
3 |
(2) |
2 |
(2) |
Jesse Chadwell |
OL |
MI |
(2) |
3 |
3 |
(2) |
Christian DiLauro, Dillan Cazley, and Jesse Chadwell all get three stars from Scout.
#10 Northwestern - 1 Commit |
||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Name |
Position |
State |
Rivals |
Scout |
24/7 |
ESPN |
Matt Alviti |
QB |
IL |
4 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
Northwestern's lone commit, dual-threat Matt Alviti, is a four-star across the board.
#11 Minnesota - 1 Commit |
||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Name |
Position |
State |
Rivals |
Scout |
24/7 |
ESPN |
Keelon Brookins |
CB |
MN |
3 |
3 |
3 |
(2) |
Keelon Brookins gets three stars from Scout.
Indiana and Purdue still do not have a commit for the 2013 class.
diary this!
This should be a diary homeslice.
Good work though, it looks as though you put quite a bit of time into this
I bet it took him less than a half hour to perform the calculations. Probably the hardest part was posting the table.
Because I'm not a sheep, it's okay.
Yeah for common sense!!!
Northwestern still says "Whooooo . . . suck it Big Ten!!!"
However, once you start getting down to the 2-star, low 3-star recruits, it's really just hand-waving by most of the recruiting sites. It's nearly impossible to declare someone worthy of 2-stars compared to someone that just barely deserves 3 stars. But that's a recruiting site problem that seems allow other schools to puff out their chests about their coaches staffs when they "turn 2-stars into studs". In all honesty, there just isn't a good way to differentiate them, and I don't think it really indicates much of a difference between incoming talent.
Northwestern is kicking our ass, Hoke doesn't get it.
This seems like a more logical method of rating the NR recruits. At the very least, it keeps the averages from being skewed. A prime example is Penn State, who certainly has the 4th best class in the B1G at the moment.
I really like this method, too. Nicely done.
and i know that im a homer but i'll go ahead and say that i have always thought that scout was the most accurate site and that espn's (even though not as agreeable with the other sites) atleast has a sense of logic to it. Yes, they love the SEC country, but for a good reason because they have kind of been dominating. Either way there's always rankings that we will disagree upon. I think that one ranking site should use a type of player efficiency rating in comparison with the amount of the player's usage. For instance, the amount of plays a DL plays divided by amount of defensive plays for the usage percentage and then a point system for efficiency rating. If the player is part of a tackle, one point, half point for a qb hurry/hit, a sack is two points, beating their man but not directly affecting the play would be a half point/quarter point, causing a turnover is two-four points depending on field position/down, and if they manage a touchdown let's say four points. divide the points by the number of plays played to create a per. it would take a lot of film watching but thats what these guys do right? So a player who flashes promise/talent/crazy athleticism would have a smaller PER than a player who plays with consistency and makes plays constantly but lacks elite athleticism, or his arms just aren't long enough he would potentially have a higher ranking. elite atheleticism is something that should be taken into account but it is also easily measured but this would be a way to potentially quantify a players football iq, instinct, and playmaking ability.
Also, you forgot to project a few players gaining that 5th star on certain recruiting sites :)
April 20th, 2012 at 10:32 AM ^
Taco Charlton is an absolute beast. Can't wait to see him destroying people. Bleacher is excited about them too. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cjSc3-G4dWU&list=PL29D6CF0750833403&inde…; Can't wait
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