Best:  Way Less Sad

As I’ve gotten older, I’ve found myself being less attached to the outcome of sports while at the same time being more affected by the actual event while it’s going on; the moment can be painful but once it has passed I become pretty sanguine about the whole deal.  As a Michigan fan I’ve had a cornucopia of examples to pull from but the most recent example was MSU last year.  In real time it was demoralizing to watch Michigan blow a chance to make a statement against an objectively bad team by having perhaps the worst defensive performance by a defensive back in recorded history (Seth can check the date), but even a couple of minutes after I just sort of accepted that the nagging voice in the back of my head was right, that the inexperienced, mistake-ridden team that had blitzed Minnesota wasn’t going to be able to patch over those holes with some spackle and a QB with a cannon for an arm.  At that point the rest of the season played out like a series of additional exclamation points to the statement “Not This Year!!!!”

But hope springs eternal thanks in no small part of one’s ability to adjust expectations.  7 years ago people were saying Michigan’s ascension to the top of CFB was practically inevitable, the long-waited return of football royalty to its rightful place on the throne.  While Jim Harbaugh absolutely improved UM’s trajectory from where it was headed post Lloyd Carr, the team never made that leap beyond “pretty good” and has scuttled the past couple of seasons.  Now, we can debate how likely it was that Michigan was ever going to be the “Michigan” people think it was once (I’ve long held that a team that’s been winning at a 71% clip since the 85-scholarship limit was imposed in 1977 really can’t be too mad at a coach who’s winning at a 69% clip), but expectations were absolutely higher than they are now for the Harbaugh tenure.  And perhaps that’s for the best, or at least for the best right now.  Coming into the year the general consensus was 8-4, with losses to Wisconsin, PSU, Indiana, and a ham-blasting at the hands of OSU, and even there talk was of that being the upper bounds of reasonable given the concerns around Harbaugh’s coaching future, depth and/or talent concerns at key spots such as defensive tackle and corner, and the massive staff and schematic turnover that occurred in the offseason.  There were just too many questions around how the defense would recover from its cratering last year, how the offense would respond with yet another first-year QB and a collection of mostly-unproven wide receivers, and just a simmering pot of anger and bitterness toward Harbaugh that typically manifested in statements beginning with “In year 7 of Harbaugh I never expected…”  Nobody expects Michigan to compete for a national title this year and even the optimism for this season typically takes the form of “it’ll set up a competitive 2022”.

And yet, I can’t help but take heart from UM’s performance against WMU, both during the game and afterwards.  Yes, WMU was a team UM should be able to beat – the Broncos are a slightly above-average MAC team that lost a couple of key players to the NFL, and whatever glass ceiling PJ Fleck broke through in 2016 has re-solidified.  At the same time, beating teams you are supposed to isn’t a given anymore, and even the wins have gotten a lot hairier than before.  Other than WMU’s first scoring drive, which was a combination of some good plays, a couple of defensive breakdowns, and an unnecessary taunting penalty, Western struggled to get much of anything going offensively during the semi-competitive portion of the game.  And WMU’s offense is legitimately pretty good; coming into the year they had the #2 MAC offense per SP+ led by Kaleb Eleby, the most efficient returning QB in the nation.  But after that first TD WMU’s offense proceeded to do the following:

1. 10 plays, 51 yards, punt
2. 3 plays, 5 yards, punt
3. 3 plays, 1 yard, punt
4. 6 plays, 11 yards, punt
5. 9 plays, 20 yards, punt
6. 9 plays, 45 yards, blocked 40-yard FG
7. 6 plays, 23 yards, punt
8. 3 plays, 8 yards, punt
9. 10 plays, 75 yards, TD

That’s a tidy 3.4 ypp on those 8 drives before the final TD, and half of those yards on the 51-yard drive came when Josh Ross busted coverage on a crossing route that is just a hat tip to the WMU offense.  For the game Michigan gave up under 200 yards passing on 37 attempts, picking up 6 PBUs, 1 sack, and 6 more QB hits along the way.  Caveats and all about competition, that’s a fantastic performance from a defensive unit implementing a new system and with limited experience at a lot of spots.  Dax Hill absolutely destroyed plays while the tackles bullied their way into the backfield at key times and the corners, with a few exceptions, were solid in coverage (even Gray’s DPI-they-picked-up was the result of him and the receiver responding to a badly underthrown ball and getting tangled).  Yes, Michigan still looked like they didn’t quite have a handle on zone coverages at times and there were a handful of times when it felt like a better offense would have been able to take advantage of breakdowns in the defensive backfield, and the defensive wall in the middle absolutely sprung some leaks against a mediocre WMU line, but overall it was still defensive performance that looked, dare I say, competent and reproducible. 

Similarly, the offense looked to be far more coherent than even last year’s first game against Minnesota.  I spent way more time than I should have re-watching stretches of that game and what I came away with was a sense that Michigan did some things really well but also got a bit lucky.  I won’t relitigate all of 2020 but I will, as is customary, note that Joe Milton has a tremendous arm and has made great strides as a QB since coming out of HS.  But his chief struggles last year were touch and reading defenses quickly; if his first read wasn’t open he tended to drift a bit and then either bug out and run or try to launch it to his primary target, coverage by damned.  I wound up watching a decent chunk of the UT-BGSU game this year and it felt like a lot of performances I saw last season; Milton could make the easy throws close to the LOS but once the defense took those away he struggled to get anything going downfield consistently.  Cade McNamara lacks the big arm of Milton (though his deep throws sure looked fine to me) but his command of the offense felt light years better in this game.  Beyond the fact he went 9/11 for 138 yards and 2 TDs, he spread the ball around efficiently (completing passes to 5 different players) and actually got Michigan into some tempo throughout the first half.  The highlight of this newfound speed was probably their end-of-the-half 12 play, 63-yard FG drive (yes, I too would have liked a TD there but we’re also talking about a 20-point lead by that point) that ate up 3:39 on the clock a featured exactly 1 pass play.  And yet, despite running the ball an not calling a timeout until they were in the red zone, Michigan hurried to the line and was able to keep WMU off-balance and consistently pick up 7-8 yards a carry.  Execution just felt crisper, there weren’t any major mishaps with snaps or handoffs, and the offense was able to stick to their very Novacaine offense without it feeling bogged down. 

As was promised earlier in the week, Michigan demonstrated a renewed focus on running the ball a year after they threw the ball on approximately 99%… er, 55% of their offensive snaps.  It wasn’t the most efficient plan early on; WMU’s defensive strength was inside and Michigan’s initial rushing attempts were of the 2-3 yard variety.  But they kept plugging away, getting consistent runs from Blake Corum and Hassan Haskins along with some WR end-arounds that sprung A.J. Henning and Roman Wilson for big gains, and in the end Michigan averaged almost 8 ypc on 43 carries and, perhaps just as importantly, only 2 TFLs on the day.  I know some were annoyed by this approach but with a (at the time) ranked opponent coming into town the following week, there was little reason for Michigan to break out anything particularly devious while also allowing them to reinforce the style of play they wanted to rely on.  And in the end, after a shaky start Michigan’s offense cruised to 47 points on 551 yards, averaging 9.1 ypp.

Am I perhaps a bit too excited about Michigan thoroughly defeating a directional Michigan school in their first game of the season?  Absolutely.  But incremental progress is oftentimes necessary to reach greater heights; teams like Alabama, OSU, Clemson, Oklahoma, etc. didn’t turn into juggernauts overnight, and Michigan being pretty good in their first game of the season has absolutely not been a given every year.  So I’m going to enjoy this win and be happy for a while before the 3 hours of dread kick in Saturday night.

Best:  No Leaking

I thought this post about the experience of the WMU offensive line should be highlighted – due to COVID-19 WMU’s starting offensive line featured a number of “super seniors” on it.  Obviously we’re talking about MAC offensive line prospects but Michigan’s defensive line did a good job consistently generating pressure on Eleby throughout the day and, save for a couple of pushes here or there, limited interior rush yardage.  WMU’s counter to Michigan’s line was to get the ball out quickly with short drops; Eleby only averaged 5.1 ypa in this game and it was under 4.5 ypa before the last drive of the game.  On the ground WMU broke 100 yards rushing but were largely bereft of big plays; other than one 22-yard run by Tyler no Bronco back had a long run more than 8 yards on the day.  One of the big knocks about last year’s defense was that it “leaked” yards either in coverage or after initial contact, leading to one of the worst 3rd-down conversion rates in the country last year.  WMU had some early success converting on 3rd downs (they were 3/3 in the first quarter) but Michigan then tightened up and held the Broncos to 5/15 conversion rate.  And on the day 5 of WMU’s 8 conversions on third happened on two drives – their first of the game and first of the second half.  Overall it looked and felt like Michigan’s defense was able to adapt pretty quickly to shore up issues, mixing up coverages and pressure after WMU had some early success throwing the ball and also stiffening against the run as the game progressed.  WMU’s lone second-half score came about from one of those drives when it felt like holding was turned off; there were multiple instances when UM’s lineman would get into the backfield and then be yanked down as they closed in on Eleby. 

Still limited sample size and all but Washington just gave up 3 sacks and 8 TFLs to Montana while failing to crack 90 yards on the ground (even excising sacks), so Michigan has a chance to build on a solid line performance this week.  At the bare minimum, it’s unlikely that Washington will be road-grading UM for 4 quarters given past performances.

Worst:  Cracked Bell

Ronnie Bell is likely out for the season after being injured on a punt return the play after scoring a great long-ball TD, and that wasn’t even close to the most spectacular play he made in his short time on the field.  I feel awful for him and hopefully he can recover and see the field next year.  But almost immediately after he went down I saw a lot of posts here and on Twitter decrying the use of Ronnie Bell on punt returns, as if it was sign of criminal malfeasance by the coaching staff to use one of their key offensive weapons to return punts.  Now, I get the argument that guys can get hurt on punt returns (particularly head injuries), but even if 10% of all injuries happen on punt returns we’re still talking about 90% of all injuries happening in other aspects of the game.  And to say nothing of the fact that this injury happened on a pretty benign tackle that happens numerous times a game. 

But punt returning is not the purview of the oft-unused backup CB, RB, or WR anymore.  Due to their importance with regards to field position and possible turnovers, most teams have guys who are integral parts of their team to handle the role.  Case in point – look at the top 10 kick returners last year.  PSU had their #1 WR Dotson returning punts against Wisconsin, VT used their leading receiver Tayvion Robinson as their #1 returner last year, OUS used one of their top receivers in Garrett Wilson the most both this year and last. Hell, Alabama had Heisman Trophy winner Devonta Smith handling the majority of their punt returns, and it wasn’t even close.  I understand the concern about injuries but that’s also part of college football; Peppers and DPJ returned punts at Michigan and escaped without injury while Jake Butt and Andrew Stueber tore their ACLs quite far away from punts.  Guys just get hurt sometimes, and while you want to minimize that risk whenever possible you are at an athletic disadvantage if you don’t try to maximize your strengths where you can.  Bell has proven to be a reliable and elusive returner and he got hurt on a return; had he gotten hurt the being tackled on a 9-yard crossing route nobody would say he shouldn’t have been out there.  And even the nature of the injury isn’t atypical – it was a guy rolling up on him in a tackle.  That absolutely could have happened during the “normal’ course of a game, and saying “I told you so” after the fact feels reductive. 

Best:  Not Missing a Beat

One of the many tragedies from last year is that Michigan rarely got to deploy Aiden Hutchinson and Kwity Paye at the same time; Hutchinson was lost for the season early on and Michigan struggled to breach the offensive backfield all year, averaging a mere 4 TFLs and 1.5 sacks per game.  This year the general consensus seemed to be that Hutchinson was back to his top form, and early draft prognostications had him going in the first round.  But I think there were still some questions about if he would still be as effective without Paye on the other side drawing attention.  Well, Hutchinson answered a lot of those questions by picking up 4 solo tackles, including a sack, forcing a fumble and hitting the QB multiple times.  In fact, there was one play in which he nearly picked the ball out of Eleby’s hands as he went back to pass.  Hutchinson also showed the ability to make plays in space as WMU tried to string him out, and generally looked the part of an all-conference player.

Similarly, Daxton Hill played a great game after a year wherein he showed a ton of potential but also was woefully undercoached due to, I assume, poor internet service on campus.  Michigan may have the best safety combo in the league, and between Hill, Hawkins, and an emerging R. J. Moten the Wolverines have players capable of protecting downfield threats while also coming up and disrupting short-yardage plays.  And both Gemon Green and Vincent Gray showed continued improvement from last year; in particular I thought Green did a great job sticking with his man on the day.  The one big reception he gave up was well-defended; Moore just made a really good catch on a very accurate throw.  It’s a play you have to tip your cap to but was the only major blemish on the day.  I do wonder a bit what’s happening between Gray and D.J. Turner at the second corner spot; talk coming into the game was that Turner had earned the start but it was Gray who played the majority of the snaps.  I thought Gray did a good job on the day other than being beat once on a throw that WMU dropped.  He probably should have also been called for an unintentional facemask in the second half but my complaints about officiating deserve another section.  Still, the players I hoped would show improvement this year did early on, and that’s a good sign going forward.

Worst:  This Guy Again

John O’Neill is the worst referee in the Big 10; I haven’t watched other leagues enough to know if he’s the worst across the country but I assume he’s in the running.  And that sentiment isn’t just at UM, as multiple fanbases have their own axes to grind with him.  In this game he called just an awful OPI on Ronnie Bell’s one-handed catch for what was hand fighting; WMU’s corner had a solid grasp on Bell’s arm for most of the play, thus necessitating the 1-handed snag.  That was just a blatantly awful call, and the announcers, the fans, the players, and even my dog all thought it was.  Then he did the equally-egregious thing that all bad refs do and give a “make up” call for the Wolverines, in this case picking up the flag on an apparent facemask penalty on Vincent Gray in coverage.  Yes the contact was incidental but that’s typically a bang-bang play, and one I was surprised he didn’t call.  Other questionable calls were the running-into-the-kicker penalty late in the game in which the WMU punter seemingly danced around until he found contact, two unsportsmanlike penalties late in the 4th quarter, and simply ignoring holding by WMU for much of the 4th quarter.  I guess it’s a good sign that UM won’t be getting O’Neill for 2 games in a row, but the fact he remains gainfully employed as a referee in this conference is astounding.

Best:  McCarthyism

Yes, I know that’s not the right use of the word.  So be it.  J.J. McCarthy saw action late in this game and showcased all of the tools people saw out of him in HS – he rifled balls between coverages, seemed comfortable running the offense, and even picked up his first career TD on a nice throw under pressure.  But he also showed a lot of the weaknesses you should expect of a young QB.  He didn’t always hold onto the ball carefully, he sometimes rushed throws or was a step late, and tried to do a bit too much.  I mean, his TD throw was great but it was a bad play to attempt, throwing across his body, across the field, to a WR who was reasonably covered.  Baldwin made a nice adjustment and was able to score a TD but if McCarthy tried that against better corners that’s likely a turnover.  None of this, mind you, is an indictment of his ability.  He looks very much the part of a future star, and watching him and Donovan Edwards grind down the field is a nice glimpse at the future of the program.  But people calling for him to start over McNamara need to remember that freshman QBs tend to suck, and the gap between him and McNamara in terms of control of the offense and performance remains significant.  Still, it was fun to see him perform well in his first college game.

Meh:  This Conference Is a Mess

It’s been one week of football but I honestly don’t think I’ve ever been as uncertain about the conference as a whole as I am right now.  NW looked absolutely lost for long stretches of their game against MSU while the Spartans seemed to have found a gem in transfer running back Kenneth Walker, who recorded 264 yards (!) on 23 carries (!!) and 4 TDs in his first start.  But this is also a NW team that returned the least amount of production in all of P5 and are also replacing their long-time defensive coordinator, and that lack of talent + scheme uncertainty showed.   On the one hand MSU looked immensely better on offense than they did last season; on the other hand they gave up 70% completion percentage, 3 TDs, and 6.4 ypa to Hunter Johnson, a former 5* QB who inexplicably averaged 4 ypa on 108 passes 2 years ago.  I’m fairly certain NW is awful, but the jury is still out on MSU.  Similarly, Indinia University looked awful against Iowa, with Penix throwing two pick-sixes and generally looking out of sorts throughout.  I don't want to subscribe too much to the Iowa wasn’t great in this game offensively, going 4/12 on 3rd down and only averaging 5.2 ypa, but they were able to make IU pay for their mistakes and were able to run the ball consistently with Goodson.  I was a bit down on IU coming into the year but if they can’t get on track with their passing game they may turn out to be a bit of a one-hit wonder when it comes to seriously contending in the division.  And finally, both PSU and UW played in a POO(W) game, with neither team looking particularly good offensively and some of their defensive “strengths” being due to awful QB play by both teams.  Sean Clifford had a couple of long completions to Dotson and Lambert-Smith but otherwise looked as mediocre as he did last year, while Graham Mertz will always have Illinois but that may be his high-water mark as he threw 2 picks and generally looked like a QB the UW staff didn’t trust throwing downfield.  Wisconsin dominated time of possession in large part because they ran the ball 58 times, but the Badger offensive line looked mediocre and the team struggled to cash in when they did get close to scoring, missing a FG and throwing a pair of interceptions.  PSU did just enough to win but neither team looked like their best selves.

In no way do I think we should read too much into 1-game samples, but the chasm between OSU (which looked fine against Minnesota after an early scare but do still seem to have questions at QB and in their secondary) and the rest of the conference seems to have grown, and if Michigan can play well against Washington I see no reason why they can’t go on a little run to start the year. 

Next Week:  Huskies

This game looked like Michigan’s chance as a marquee win early on until Washington lost to Montana at home.  UW’s defense looks solid (if unremarkable) but their offense looks extremely disjointed; as I mentioned earlier they struggled to get push against Montana’s defensive line all day.  UW will be coming to Ann Arbor wounded and looking to make a statement, so I fully expect them to play better at night.  But they still have John Donovan calling plays, the guy who somehow turned an offense spearheaded by Saquon Barkley and Trace McSorley into below-average offenses, so there may be a ceiling to how they’ll look on offense.  They were without a couple of receivers in their game against Montana, so that should be factored in as well.  I do think this will be a low-scoring game early on, but if Michigan can consistently generate the same pressure we saw against WMU I think their offense, even with Bell, should be enough to win the day in the end.