Best:  QB1

https://twitter.com/ThiccStauskas/status/1447050649397497857

These late games always sap my ability to write detailed analysis the next day, especially when so much happened.  So a brief recap – Michigan looked good but left some points on the field in the first half, Nebraska exploited defensive weaknesses in the 3rd quarter to pull ahead, then UM and Nebraska battled in a tight contest in the fourth until Nebraska, well, Nebraska’d away the game for the 165th-ish time of the Scott Frost era.  The game featured at least a half-dozen reviews ranging from “Title of your Sex Tape” joint recovery on a muffed punt, Cade McNamara’s first career pick after the announcers dedicated a decent chunk of the game to that point begging the football gods to make it so, and the reemergence of Michigan’s running game after a couple of weeks being stuck in neutral.  In the end Michigan finished their second straight road game with a win, with Nebraska doing a lot of their damage on big chunk plays but struggling down-to-down (the longest Nebraska drive was 9 plays and it ended in a turnover on downs) while UM rolled out 5 drives that were 9+ plays.  Michigan “looked” better throughout the contest, which obviously doesn’t presume a victory, but I found myself more annoyed that Nebraska was sticking around than a fear that Michigan was falling apart. 

It’s hard to describe, this lack of fear of the ceiling collapsing, because this isn’t a feeling we’re used to the last couple of years as a UM fan.  There’s less a creeping dread and more a sense of “fine, back to the salt mines” to pull out a win against a game opponent.  It’s very Carr-esque in that respect, as someone who lived through that era and remembers them winning and losing close games in competitive games and not just slow-motion train wrecks we saw in 2019 and especially 2020.  This team is back to being innately competent and collected, of being dare I say “fun” because of their faith in themselves.  McNamara is right – UM loses this game last year, they probably lose it in 2019 and 2018 as well.  It’s the height of feelings-ball, but it’s not because they’re mentally stronger, more talented, or schematically greater than those clubs as much as they just seem to be happier out there, more engaged, more confident that it’ll work out.  I attribute some of that to simply having a fresh year without the uncertainty of 2020’s COVID response, with an offseason to recover and prepare under an overturned staff that has less baggage.  It also helps that their early opponents are less daunting that originally envisioned, though teams like Nebraska and Wisconsin are still probably better than their records denote.   Harbaugh in particular looks invigorated this year, still not a raving madman but featuring more of an edge on the sideline as a guy who knows he’s got to prove he’s still a top coach in a game that some feel is passing him by.  And the team itself embodies this confidence, whether it be co-opting opponent traditions or repeatedly coming back against an amped Husker defense in that second half as they found themselves down for the first time all year. 

Now, is Michigan still going to lose games this year?  Yes, and given the remaining schedule it’ll likely be to teams that are varying degrees of annoying, from PSU to MSU to OSU.  I still feel like the ceiling for this team is 9-3, 10-2 in the regular season just because it’s going to be hard to win at MSU and PSU and teams like Maryland and and IU are going to be trying to get that marquee win in otherwise unremarkable seasons.  But as I’ve said a bunch of times already, I’m here for the ride, and this team is just enjoyable to watch because it feels like a scrappy team but it still has breathtaking athletes.  I’ve said my piece about preemptive sadness and whining about future losses, and if that’s your jam go for it.  We’re all adults here, and how you want to be as a fan is your birthright.  But this was a game Michigan could have lost, could have packed up and gone into the bye-week 5-1 and it would still be considered a good first half of the year.  But instead they won, did it with some style, and I’m going to enjoy the next 6 games much like this team seems to be.

https://twitter.com/MaizeBlueNation/status/1447041033972371462

Best:  Thunder and Lightning Need Each Other

Michigan’s calling card offensively all year has been the duo of Hassan Haskins and Blake Corum and their complementary styles.  Haskins is the “bruiser”, the guy who can will his way for extra yardage with a combination of heft and power.  Corum is the faster, more elusive back who’s capable of rocketing past defenders and making physics-bending jump cuts on the regular.  Now, obviously this is a bit of an oversimplication of their dynamic, as neither is as one-note as their monikers denote: Corum is more than capable of powering through a tackle when necessary and Haskins can run past and over defenders when given the chance in the open field.  But the great thing about their skillsets is that they can be deployed independently without hamstringing the offense, as their both capable all-around backs whose strengths can catch defenses off-guard if, for example, they’ve been bludgeoned by Haskins for a drive and now are gasping at air because they’re not remotely ready for Corum’s wheels.

But defenses adjust and the past two weeks featured both Rutgers and Wisconsin clamping down on the rushing attacks significantly (though I’d say argue that Michigan’s rushing total against the Badgers still being more than they’ve given up cumulatively to the other 4 teams they’ve played is impressive), notably by limiting UM’s ability to pick up chunk yardage.  The longest run from scrimmage against Rutgers was 13 and 11 for Corum and Haskins respectively while it was 7 and 8 against the Badgers.  Some of that was bad luck and shoestring tackling, especially against the Scarlett Knights, but it was also a function of those defenses mucking up the inside running lanes and Michigan either being unwilling or unable to exploit the gaps outside the tackles.  With neither of the backs really standing out, defenses were able to bear down a bit more and stymie the dynamic rushing attack that had catapulted Michigan this year.  And so a team that at one point was averaging close to 350 yards a game on the ground limped to 112 ypg these past two weekends.

But to Michigan’s credit they never abandoned the running game but did introduce more passing elements, including to the backs, in order to shake up the fortified defenses.  In the first half against the Huskers Michigan rarely broke free for long gains; throw out a 26-yarder by Corum on 3rd down that caught the Huskers off-guard and their longest non-McCarthy run was 7 yards.  But they kept at it and you could tell Nebraska’s defense was struggling to keep up the effort as the game progressed.  I already highlighted Corum’s TD and Haskins’s 50-yard run that set up the game-tying FG, but starting about midway through the 3rd quarter those runs went from 2-3 yards to 5-7 yard runs more regularly.  And even when Nebraska was able to limit the damage it felt more by chance than earlier, with last-gasp arm tackles replacing squared-up hits.  Michigan ended the game with over 200 yards on the ground but more importantly both Haskins and Corum were back to averaging 5+ yards a carry, and once again you saw defenders struggle to get these guys on the ground.

After the bye week and a date with the desiccated husk of Northwestern Michigan will be entering the home stretch of their season against a plethora of decent-to-great defenses.  MSU (18), PSU (6), and OSU (22) are all top-25 defenses that have shown varied abilities to stop the run while IU (31) and Maryland (48) may be more pliable but are certainly not pushovers (Maryland just held OSU to 1.6 ypc and IU’s defense is not the reason they’re 2-3 this year).  I expect UM to have some issues on the ground against those squads but it’s refreshing to see them bounce back against a good Husker defense and reassert this part of their offensive identity.

 

Worst:  PB & JJ*

Above I extolled the virtues of Corum and Haskins being these two complementary pieces of the running game, which combined create one of the most dynamic attacks in college football.  And a key reason is that they are able to be switched out per possession or ever per play to optimize their effectiveness.  It keeps the defense on its toes while giving levels of flexibility to playcalling you likely wouldn’t enjoy if only one of them was available, which is why even workhorse backs don’t monopolize the touches as they once did.  You succeed with diversity.

A similar phenomenon has fueled the emergence of dual-threat QBs in college for going on 20+ years.  It wasn’t THAT long ago that most quarterbacks were pocket-first passers or option-heavy runners, with little overlap.  Heck, in 1997 Scott Frost became only the 10th player in college football history to run and throw for over 1,000 yards in a season, and that 1,000 yards in the air amounted to 55% completion percentage of 5 TDs and 4 picks.  The year before Frost had thrown for 13 TDs and 3 picks but had rushed for only 400-ish yards, and I remember it being a big deal that he had moved into “runner” mode after being more of a passer.  But to take a step back, while there had only been 9 other players in college football history to have accomplished his 1k feat up to that point, 3 guys did so in 2019 and a couple of other guys were within a hundred-ish yards passing or rushing of the mark as well.  Heck, Taylor Martinez pulled it off once at Nebraska and nearly 2 other times.  And it makes a ton of sense why teams have moved toward this model; it forces the defense to account for a player with the ball in his hand who previously was expected to mostly do one thing (throw the ball) but is now a threat to do another (run with it) while all but 1 defender is likely occupied.  Coupled with the limited practice time and constant turnover college teams have in terms of players, it makes sense that a system which lets a pretty good athlete with the ball in his hands make a couple of easy, quick reads and then run for it would be preferred over one that relies more heavily on consistent arm talent. 

Now, that doesn’t mean a QB has to be a Denard- or Lamar Jackson-level threat on the ground to be successful, but if you want to utilize that aspect of the game there has to be a credible threat that your QB can take the ball and run with it.  That’s been the consistent complaint about Cade McNamara, that he lacks the athleticism and/or willingness and/or coaching to run the ball in those situations, either schematically or due to circumstance, where it’s best.  It’s why he earned the cyan the past two weeks in FFFF, and while I find the justification behind that designation only loosely based on past precedent, it’s fair to say that his failure to pose a legitimate running threat at QB limits the ceiling for this offense on the ground.  I’ve long argued that given UM’s issues with keeping QBs healthy (2017 they lost Speight against Purdue and then Brandon Peters against Wisconsin, then 2018 they got a mostly-healthy year from Paterson before him getting a lingering injury against MTSU in 2019, then Milton + McNamara both getting hurt in 2020), I understand the concerns/skittishness around relying too heavily on the QB in the running attack, but regardless McNamara has a long run of 9 yards this year and has –6 yards on 13 carries for the years.  Defenses do not fear him as a rusher and, as has been discussed ad nauseum in various UFRs, podcasts, and posts, that has allowed defenses to disregard him on the split zone plays the offense likes to run. 

Recently, Michigan has been countering this tendency a bit by inserting JJ McCarthy into the game to pose a more credible run threat under center.  It’s still early but McCarthy has run the ball 8 times for 17 yards, with a long of 16 and a TD.  And in this game McCarthy’s first run was for 11 yards, a pretty basic keep that still caught the Nebraska defense off-balance and allowed him to pick up the first down.  And McCarthy is a good enough athlete that he poses a legitimate threat to defenders with his legs.  But the problem with McCarthy in this role is a mirror image of Cade’s – McCarthy simply doesn’t pose a threat yet through the air to keep defenses from seeing his insertion into the game as a blinking “we’re running it here” sign.  Yes, McCarthy did wind up throwing the ball once in this game (it was dropped by Baldwin and likely would have only been for minimal gain), but until he does so consistently and successfully there’s little reason for a defense to not treat him as a Wildcat-style rushing threat and defend accordingly.  And McCarthy simply isn’t the type of athlete to overcome that type of defensive adjustments; he’s not going to Denard his way past people and, frankly, people shouldn’t expect that.  And while he’s thrown a couple of nice balls to Baldwin against backups deep in games, his passing otherwise looks a little shaky, typical of young guys with rocket arms who want to muscle every ball to their receivers before the defender responds. 

Now, long term the ceiling for McCarthy is higher (provided he’s able to pick up the nuances of reading defenses, play calls, pre-snap adjustments, etc.) and I absolutely believe he’ll compete for the starting spot as soon as next year.  But the constant drumbeat for McNamara to be replaced seems premised on the notion that McCarthy is ready now, and there’s little evidence to support that take.  Could McCarthy improve with more game-time reps?  Sure, but likely at a pretty steep cost both for the team and his own development in the short term.  And while there are exceptions, most true freshman aren’t ready to play against top college competition their first years, and most who do tend to be in offensive systems that require less of them than what Michigan currently runs or don’t have better options on the roster.  Putting yourself in that situation intentionally never felt prudent even before the year kicked off, and it seems even more ludicrous now.

I’m fine with McCarthy being sprinkled into the offense; he absolutely brings a dynamic that McNamara doesn’t right now.  But if he is brought out, he needs to be a more credible passing threat.  I’m less worried about McNamara not being a credible running threat because this offense can clearly function with Haskins and Corum taking the bulk of the carries and McNamara maybe scrambling 2-3 times a game.  He’s shown the past couple of weeks, against some of the better defenses in the country, that he can throw the ball downfield with touch and accuracy and defenses at least respect that threat.  But McCarthy hasn’t yet placed that fear in the back of DC’s minds, so when he’s out there the defenses don’t have to really adjust beyond treating him as another likely runner.  It’s why that 3rd-down run on the game-winning FG drove me crazy, as Nebraska’s defense immediately swarmed the backfield because they knew all the receivers were out there to block and weren’t credible targets.  It was unrealistic to expect UM to pick up the first on the ground anyway but in this game you saw how UM felt a step slow in the redzone with Martinez had the ball specifically because there was a threat of him throwing the ball or keeping it, while that wasn’t the calculus posed to the Nebraska defenders by McCarthy.  So while I’m not a fan of rotating QBs, it needs to feel like both of them are interchangeable to a degree when it comes to playcalling, but at the very least both of them need to be credible passing threats.

* Yes, it’s a sweaty pun but it gets to the point. 

 

Worst:  Too Much Space

This was the formation Nebraska used to pick up their first TD of the game.

https://twitter.com/phildobaggins93/status/1447172915787493384

As noted, they are in an illegal formation with 5 players in the backfield, a penalty they had already been called for earlier in the game.  But the important element to note comes right after, as it’s clear that the linebackers incorrectly identify all of the possible receivers and allow Austin Allen to run untouched down the field for a TD.  A similar scenario played out on Nebraska’s next TD wherein the defense again failed to account for Johnson coming out the backfield and he was able to catch a nice wheel route for a TD.  And then one play later UM again failed to account for a Nebraska TE and he had ample real estate to run in for a score.  On all three plays the linebackers and/or secondary simply gave too much space to the receivers downfield, resulting in easy throws to guys who, at most, needed to beat one defender to a spot.  What stood out is that hasn’t been a major issue for the defense thus far; one of the strengths of the defense has been their ability to not leak yards or give up big plays.  There have been spots here or there, such as the end-of-half score by Wisconsin last weekend or some of Rutgers’s second-half offense, but in general Michigan has been really good at ID’ing what the offense is trying to run and either snuffing it out or limiting the fallout. 

For the first half, Michigan continued this sound performance.  The longest play for the Cornhuskers in that half was a screen to Johnson on their first series, which attacked this weakness in space.  But other than that first drive Michigan limited the explosive plays and thus was able to keep the Cornhuskers in uncomfortable situations.  But after halftime it was clear Nebraska was going to test this young linebacking corps to stick with guys in space coming out of “unique” (and sometimes illegal) formations, and it clearly worked for them.  And that makes sense, as both Junior Colson and Nikhali Hill-Green saw significant time next to Josh Ross and both were victimized on various long plays in that second half.  Now, those are expected growing pains for young defenders, especially when coming into a defensive system that is new even for the more experienced players on the roster (robbing you somewhat of the safety blanket you’d have from other plays inherently knowing how to compensate for mistakes having run this defense before), but it’s also a blueprint a number of teams left on the roster will try to exploit.  I fully expect, for example, MSU to attack these guys with crossing routes, screens, wheel routes, and anything else they can think of to put these guys on islands, and the now nearly-operational Death Star in Columbus is going to be Nebraska on steroids (possibly literally, definitely metaphorically) on that front.  So it’s going to be imperative these next couple of weeks for those ID’ing issues to be dampened as much as is reasonably possible and compensations made where possible. 

Because otherwise I thought the defense did a solid job in this game limiting what Nebraska wanted to do downfield.  None of the Nebraska receivers got much separation against the corners and while the Huskers got better rushing lanes inside in the second half they only had 1 run over 20 yards the entire game and also had a  costly fumble.  But coming into the year I think people expected the linebackers to be a strength due to depth and experience but with Barrett being passed by NHG and, seemingly, Colson as well, the team now has very little experience manning the middle even if it is probably more talented.  I think they’ll ultimately be able to overcome these issues and help elevate the defense, but in the short term it’s a weakness that will only be attacked more given what Nebraska just showed was possible.

 

Best:  Secondary Hand

The standout play was obviously Dax Hill’s pick, the type of play that feels very video game-y because of how the ball just hung there as Hill slid underneath it following the deflection, as if the AI glitched for a second.  It ranks up there with Jourdan Lewis’s pick against Wisconsin and The Woodson in terms of “how did he do that?”, and will undoubtedly be one of many highlights for the defense this year.  But beyond that play, perhaps the two most consequential plays of the game defensively were also made by members of the secondary.  Brad Hawkins was responsible for the Martinez fumble on game-turning drive, not giving up after Martinez got the first down and was fighting for more yards.  And then on Nebraska’s last drive it was Gemon Green to absolutely stuffed out a screen on 3rd-and-10 that had a chance to pick up serious yardage.  Plus, Green was the Michigan half of the “joint possession” recovery of Henning’s muffed punt that could have been disastrous. 

And even one of their “bad” plays such as Martinez’s completion to Oliver Martin was largely poor luck; the play itself was well-defended and probably should have been picked or fallen incomplete.  The secondary isn’t perfect and I still wonder how they’ll handle speedy WRs like those at MSU, PSU, and OSU, but after coming into the year expected to be the weak link on defense we’ve instead seen steady improvement and play by the starters both in the passing and run games.

 

Worst:  Receiver Issues

I’ve mentioned it for a couple of weeks now but I think the starkest divide between UM fans this season is how much “blame” you place on the Cade McNamara versus the receivers when it comes to issues in the passing game.  While I absolutely believe McNamara has issues throwing the ball, I tend to think people overlook receivers and their issues running and catching the ball.  With Ronnie Bell out for the season and Roman Wilson out this game with a wrist injury, the receiving corps was even thinner than expected.  Because of that, you saw a lot of the offense going through guys like Baldwin and Johnson, who had 14 and 8 targets respectively in this game.  And in both cases I thought they failed to make plays you’d expect from receivers at this level.  Baldwin dropped a surefire TD in the endzone and also didn’t pull in the easy throw from McCarthy, and I’d be interested to see if he pulled up on that missed long throw by McNamara in the 4th .  I don’t love fades but Johnson had the ball hit his hands on the 2-point conversion, and it was either him or Baldwin who couldn’t quite scope a low-ish throw from McNamara on third down that would have been close to a conversion.  Mike Sainristil deserves credit for pulling down that slightly overthrown deep ball, but he probably should have pulled in this pass and has struggled with drops.  Henning didn’t really factor into the passing game but muffed the aforementioned joint recovery pretty badly and also ran backwards on another return when he should have just fair caught it or gone down when it was clear there was little to gain. 

This isn’t to say that all of these incompletions are due to the receivers; in fact upon rewatch I do think McNamara missed some throws that weren’t as obvious in real time and had others batted down.  But I also think stills of receivers sorta-open as the QB is throwing a ball to someone else who is also open doesn’t mean the WR ran the greatest route and the QB is just messing up.  This probably tracks back somewhat to the Patterson era wherein I’d see people say “DPJ is wide open 45 yards downfield and Patterson just missed him” and then you’d look at the tape and DPJ was finally open 3-4 seconds after the snap and Patterson had already read through that progression.  One of McNamara’s defining characteristics this year has been his attention to pre-snap reads and working through his reads.  Sometimes he’s locked onto a particular player pre-snap and thrown the ball regardless, which also feel like his longer throws, but more often than not you see him look for an open guy methodically.  And so while it’s easy to say “his 2nd read is finally open, throw it”, in real time that’s much harder to evaluate, and doubly so when his receivers haven’t always pulled in catchable balls in high-leverage situations. 

This team has talent at the receiver spot and I thought they really utilized the TEs in this game well given Nebraska’s issues defending it; both All and Schoonmaker had big YAC numbers because the defense just left them wide open.  But I also think it’s a largely-untested group that doesn’t always help out its QB the way guys like Bell did last year.  There isn’t a Nico Collins/Junior Hemmingway-type who consistently high points balls, nor a burner with hands in the slot; Corum has been the best in that department by far and he was targeted a couple of times in this game.  But the ceiling for this offense won’t be significantly raised until both the QB AND WRs improve, and acting like only the prior has to make that leap is unfair.

 

Meh:  (Un)Lucky Logan  And Bad Calls

In the moment I saw a lot of consternation about the run on 3rd-and-goal that was originally called a TD (when it probably should have been called a TD on the previous play) but was overturned because McNamara’s knee hit the ground as he was handing the ball off, that the safer play was a QB sneak.  While I get that there is merit in just falling forward with your QB in that circumstance, that still feels like post-hoc analysis.  Haskins easily scored on the play and I’m not sure you can ascribe that much to Nebraska causing Vastardis stepping on his foot as he took the ball.  I don’t have numbers on this but the probability of a QB being stepped on by his center feels about as likely as the QB fumbling the exchange with the center, failing to secure the ball on the lean, being stopped at the line, or any other event that close to the goal line – they’re all low-probability events.  The play call was fine and, as evidenced by the fact Haskins dived into the endzone, it worked.  So it feels like that was one of those complaints that is more a personal preference by some than an objective “better” play that was missed.

Similarly, for all the complaints by Nebraska fans that they were hosed by calls in this game, Michigan was the victim of their fair share of questionable calls.  As noted elsewhere, Nebraska got away with a TON of “college crappe”, from illegal formations to rampant holding to the obnoxious clapping on defense that induced 3 false starts.  The fumble by Martinez looked not unlike Erick All fighting for yards on his 3rd-down conversion the drive before, and the refs allowed him to fight for yardage with the understanding that you have to, you know, hold onto the ball.  That joint recovery was the classic “tie goes to the runner”, and I’d argue Martinez’s first non-fumble-incomplete pass falls into a similar vein.  And honestly, the refs were a mess all day – the constant reviews, the weird flags, them completely missing Haskins getting a first down and Harbaugh having to call a TO to force them to review, and even the sliding foot on a UM run that netted them a first down despite it being clear McCarthy was out of bounds a yard earlier.  So a poorly-called game that was disjointed is naturally going to feel “off” for both teams, and so assuming conspiracy where incompetence applies is usually the wrong play.

 

Quick Hits:

• Jake Moody was money all night, and has been basically all year, and even though his kicks always have a hook or fade that terrifies me in the moment they all ring true.  He remains a huge weapon for this team.
• I think Lane Kiffin is an asshole but the shade he threw at his Chris Partridge and D.J. Durkin-led defense after they escaped against Arkansas is pretty great.  I know they’re both good recruiters but Ole Miss’s defense has been turrible for 2 years now.

 

Next Week:  Bye, then a sorta-Bye!

Northwestern looms after next week’s break, and then the gauntlet begins.  Let’s hope guys can get healthy and more upsets abound.