Beilein's Late Spring Recruiting Record
All the high profile prospects for '16 are already signed (with a few exceptions UM has no contact with). It stands to reason that anyone Michigan adds to the '16 class will be a multi-year project or a low-upside role player.
Or does it? Let's look at Beilein's late spring recruits* to see what we might expect (assuming the two available scholarships aren't used by grad transfers or walk-ons).
- Max Bielfeldt (committed 3/6/11) - Stolen from various mid-majors (and eventually, after Michigan offered, Illinois), Max was a 6'7 C who took 2-3 years of development before becoming a useful bench player. Ended up the primary option at C (due to attrition) by his senior year on a bad team before excelling as a bench player (at Indiana). Still a great success on the part of Beilein to turn an undersized mid-major talent into a valuable rotation player in the Big Ten.
- Spike Albrecht (committed 4/6/12) - prep schooler stolen from App State (revenge is ours!) was added during the panic to replace Trey Burke (before Burke decided to come back) thanks in part to his AAU connections (McGary, Robinson, Bielfeldt) in Indiana. Turned into a charismatic and unflappable fan favorite. Like Bielfeldt, he ended up starting on a bad team but was better suited to be a backup. Highly effective in that role and, assuming health, seems destined for success in a grad year situation that better fits what he offers.
- Caris Levert (committed 5/11/12) - young 6'4 late bloomer stolen from Ohio blossomed into a 1st round NBA pick. Developed faster and further than anyone could have hoped. Early intentions for a red-shirt were scrapped once Caris proved to be better than more veteran bench players. Beilein's ultimate "diamond in the rough".
- Muhammed Ali Abdur-Rahkman (committed 4/17/14) - prep schooler stolen from mid majors. Scouting report praised his driving skills but noted limited perimeter skills. Despite the uptick in 3% and reduced turnovers that view has largely held true. Yet MAAR's already an excellent role player and improvement from freshman to sophomore year is encouring for his future. Clearly a success for Beilein as MAAR's proven to be a valuable starter on an NCAA tournament team.
- Aubrey Dawkins (committed 4/28/14) - prep schooler stolen from Dayton after he couldn't get into Stanford. Considered a 3&D wing player who lacked guard skills beyond shooting and dunking. Surpassed expectations in some ways (occasional starter as a freshman turned into a 6th man who had the best 3-point shooting on the team in Big Ten play over the last 2 years) and disappointed in others (D was awful even for an underclassmen). Didn't reach his substantial potential at Michigan, but will still be playing college ball in 2019(!).
Beilein has had fantastic success and production from his late additions. That's reason for optimism. None came with any accolodes. All were overlooked by major programs. All became valuable contributors in one way or another. From the scrap heap Beilein's gotten an excellent backup PG, a scoring SG, an impact 2-way wing, and 3-point shooting specialist. All in their freshman year. Beilein's used older prep school kids capable of contributing immediately and he's grabbed young (for their class) projects with upside.
Whoever Beilein gets, they'll probably be a solid contributor, at worst, and they may very well help right away. I'd rather get a grad transfer for '16-17 if given the choice, but have to respect to the track record.
*Novak, Horford**, Wilson and Wagner were added pretty late in the cycle too (recruiting began in Fall or Winter) but there's a significant difference between committing late and beginning your recruitment in Spring, only weeks before graduation. Robin Benzig was another Spring signing but he was supposed to sit a year. All of them also panned out in one way or another (pending whatever Wilson will do), though not always for Michigan.
**The examples of Horford and Bielfeldt (not to mention Donnal) should be all you need to be patient with Wagner, Wilson, Teske, and Davis. Beilein's bigs tend to be a lot better as upperclassmen, if they make it that far.
EDIT: I forgot Colton Christian. Adjust Beilein's Spring "batting average" to 5/6.
This will go over well
...and by "hater" you mean WD? Hopefully he doesn't spend much time reading Diaries and will overlook this.
Nice writeup and cause for optimism.
Hopefully Beilein can find two Leverts to add to this years class.
FWIW, Wagner also committed in April last year- and is another potential late recruiting success story.
In that Michigan was recruiting him by early November of the previous year. It just took a little while to set up the visit from Germany.
http://www.umhoops.com/2014/11/08/john-beilein-recruiting-german-forwar…
Blake McLimans, Colton Christian, etc.
But I guess I should have expected that from a guy who think's JB's record matches up well with Izzo's over the last 10 years.
He should be on the list. He signed in May and became available late after the coach at Tulane left and he decommitted.
http://www.umhoops.com/2010/05/11/colton-christian-to-michigan/
I ommitted him because so does the list of Rivals commits I was using for reference.
McLimans was a standard fall signing. http://www.umhoops.com/2008/10/28/blake-mclimans-to-michigan/
Over the last 6 seasons (since 2010) Beilein win % is 67% vs Izzos 73%. 1 final 4 and 1 final 8 for both of them.
The difference basically boils down to a Caris Levert injury.
We can contort the record however we want, but the bottom line is that Izzo's teams continue to be in the thick of the conference race, while we haven't been for two years now. State probably will be there again this upcoming season. Will U-M? We'll see.
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6 years is arbitrary. So is 2 years.
At least with 6 we have a large enough sample size that can't just be chalked up to attrition and bad luck.
I'm not necessarily arguing Beilein is better than Izzo, but nobody is talking about Izzo's job being on the line (nor should they.) These two are lot closer than people think right now. Izzo has a better resume, without a doubt, but recent performance isn't far off.
We'll see about next year. MSU lost a ton (Valentine, Forbes, Costello, Clark) and will rely on freshman and grad transfers more than Michigan. If their talented freshman hit they could be better than Michigan. If they struggle, M will be better.
top end talent is already pretty weak, and we're gonna lose walton and irvin. We're hopefully set at pg and there's promise at the 5, but we need star-potential recruits at the 2, 3, and 4. adding another spike, maar, beilfeldt, or dawkins level player (assuming they are game-ready right away) will help with this years depth problem, but it will not get us past mediocrity moving forward.
Have to hope that between Wagner, Simpson, Watson, Poole, and whatever other recruits they end up with in '17 we will have a couple.
came due to unexpected attrition (e.g., early NBA entries or transfers), as is the case this year.
I don't think any of us want Beilein to start oversigning to a degree that players are being forced off the team.
Is that Beilein's probably had comparable success with 2-star no names in April/May as he has had with middling 3-star types in October/November.
Sure, we need NBA caliber talent and have to land more top 100 players, but it's good to know that if Plan A falls apart Michigan doesn't necessarily have to scramble to fill a spot quickly OR, alternatively, they can afford to be patient if there are high profile recruits who want to extend their recruitments late in the cycle.
Yes, but I like to believe it came from unexpected success and Beilein having to learn how to manage a roster in a way that he never had before because he couldn't successfully recruit those players. He always recruited 3 or 4 year players before. This year was a result of a large recruiting class where he took some risks that didn't work out and had some bad luck.
There is, obviously, another way to look at this.
Caris Levert is a huge success story. No need to debate that.
On the other hand, Dawkins, MAAR, and Spike as underclassmen all had the kinda same profile:
1) Older players - two were from prep programs, and the other was literally the oldest he could be and still be in his graduating class - and already very developed for their class.
2) Thrust into larger than optimal roles on mediocre teams because of a badly mismanaged roster. Spike, for all his dramatics and NCG performance, was below average efficiency and scoring 2.6 PPG before being forced to become the leader of the team his junior year when he was far more suited to a bench/role player spot.
3) Generally lowly recruited because of being very limited players. So far moments of appearing to rise above those limitations have not come to fruition.
that they've been generally effective contributors despite the still-evident limitations. Beilein fits players into his system with discrete skills (shooting, ball-handling, driving for Dawkins, Albrecht, Rhakman respectively). That players llike this (and I think I'd include Duncan Robinson too) can start on high major teams that make the tournament is a testament to his coaching ability and vision to see past deficiencies.
It's something the Dallas Mavericks and Rick Carslile excel at as well. The number of players with significant limitations that they've successfuly brought on is quite long (and varied). I see a similar trait in Beilein.
I don't particularly disagree, just think you are overstating it. Yes, Beilein is good at identifying kids who can immediately come in and provide non-disaster minutes.
Out of those late adds, excluding Caris, only MAAR started on a tournament team, and he had the tenth highest efficiency and usage rate on a team that was in a play-in game. I also don't know yet whether any of those players are going to produce beyond their limitations.
Did Beilein correctly identify diamonds in the rough, or did most staffs at schools of Michigan's resources and regard correctly manage their roster so that they didn't need to use up a multi-year roster spot on guys like Dawkins and Spike.
No doubt it's not a reliable source of necessary star players. Thos have to come earlier in the cycle. It's impressive enough to get contributors.
The point I think you're missing is that we didn't whiff on better recruits to land these guys, these guys are coming in to fill unexpected openings due to NBA early entries and (now) transfers. Remember that Beilein oversigned this year (for the first time) by 1. Did you actually want him to oversign by 3? Did you want Beilein to recruit 4-year players instead of Trey, Tim, Nik, GR3, and McGary? If that's bad roster managment, we could use some more.
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I think it's fair to say Rhakman, Bielfeldt and Albrecht produced well beyond their limitations. Rhakman put up a respectable 3% in his sophomore year. Albrecht used smarts and timing to become a passable defender and consistent threat to drive to the basket, and Bielfeldt played inside and rebounded at an acceptable rate despite being generously listed at 6'6.
Good recap, but I don't really agree with your analysis.
1. Caris: Far beyond what could be hoped for from a player at this time of the year. Still, he was a late bloomer that people actually were fairly high on when he signed, and we benefited from Groce leaving.
2. Spike and Rahk: Very different players but both guys who have been able to contribute in a meaningful fashion. They wouldn't be considered recruiting "hits" necessarily, except given the time of year. Nevertheless, Beilein beats the odds here.
3. Biefeldt and Dawkins: These are relatively expected trajectories for late signings. Not misses given the time of year, but nothing special in terms of recruiting success stories.
4. Colton: Miss.
No question Beilein is outperforming expectations, but expecting or even hoping for Caris-type results I think is foolish. Also, I appreciate the dates because you'll note only one of these came in May. Add in a survey of players actually available and I haven't heard anything beyond the kid from Dallas. So realistically, I think best case scenario here for a late signee (not including grad transfers) is simply, "able to contribute as a true freshman."
We are desperate enough at wing that anyone that could feasibly contribute next year is probably worth one scholarship on. I would not burn both (not counting grad transfers).
I think that when you sign a 2-star type kid who is being recruited by the likes of Dayton, App State, or Ohio you expect them to be like Matt Vogrich or Blake McLimans - fringe bench players who aren't really in the rotation. Anything more counts as a 'hit'.
Dawkins was the 6th man on a tournament team, occassional starter, and arguably the team's most effective 3-point shooter as a freshman and sophomore. Bielfeldt was the 6th man of the year by his final season. I'd call both clear successes relative to reasonable expectations for guys with their recruiting profiles. They performed at what you'd probably expect for a generic 3-star recruit rounding out a 'normal' class. If you look at somebody like Ibi Watson: being a rotation player is an "average" outcome for him. Yes, he could blow-up and be an all-conference starter, but he could also not play in the rotation, get passed by younger players, and eventually transfer out. The latter is probably more likely than the former for most recruits.
As for May vs April - there's not much difference this time of year. Very few recruits are making decisions this late in the cycle, so the available pool is the same. By January/February, the vast majority of HS kids are set with where they will go and after that there is mostly status quo pending a few transfer decisions, NBA draft decisions and those type of fringe moves that affect only a tiny fraction of the overall D1 scholarship pool.
I would argue Beilein has been below average at landing blue chip prospects, even adjusting for the poor state of the program when he arrived. His recruiting hasn't elevated much beyond what Amaker brought in in terms of prestige/hype/talent, despite far greater on-court success.
However, I would also argue that Beilein has been above average in landing contributors from the scrap heap -- a situation he's been forced into due mostly to great success from early NBA entrants (going back to Harris and Morris).
The point of this post was essentially to say; there's a silver lining here in that Beilein's pretty good at making the most of this kind of tough situation.
Solid article, and I agree with you most of what you state except 2 minor points leading to a major point about Beilein's recruiting.
1. I don't think Amaker recruits McGarry, GRIII, or Irvin (who was a 5 star). It's possible because Amaker's problem wasn't so much recruiting as it was developing high level talent to play in B10. (see Harvard).
2. Levert was a star except for injuries. It could be argued that his slim body projected for that, and that was part of the reason he was a 3 star, but I doubt it.
The BIG point, Beilein was unprepared for the early exists becuase he had never experienced it before. He had rarely if ever coached players with that type of potential before. In other words, he's learning on the job. As for the haters, go take a hike.
Dion Harris, DeShawn Sims, and Manny Harris were all top 50 recruits under Amaker. Like Irvin, all ranked in the 30s nationally according to Rivals.
Yes, Amaker didn't land anyone like McGary (who was a top 10 recruit for a time), but neither has Beilein (besides McGary himself). GR3 was a late-riser in the rankings and his recruitment was more like a borderline 4-stars than a 5-stars.
As I've said in other posts, I think of the Ellerbe-Amaker-early Beilein era as the floor of the Michigan program, not the baseline. Considering Amaker was dealing with sanctions and Beilein wasn't, I think it's fair to say that Beilein hasn't recruited to the level of talent that Michigan is capable of recruiting.
Attrition does excuse some of it. Getting guys this late in the process is tough and Beilein has excelled, but the frequency of 3-star type recruits within the normal cycle and the many whifs on Top 50 players has been underwhelming.
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