Expectations

Week 5 Conference Wins Update

Preamble

“Break their hearts my pride and hope, break their hearts and have no mercy.”
    - Miss Havisham (Charles Dickens’ Great Expectations)

Five weeks now into the season finds us comfortably in the thick of in-conference play, with (still) only one OOC game remaining to be played conference-wide. The statistical bases have grown out of the subjectiveness of preseason broad brush characterizations, and are now founded on hard, objective data. At this point and from here on out, the ratings are as meaningful as they are going to be.

The impetus of this diary is the desire to characterize the competitive landscape of the Big Ten Conference through the synthesis of total win probability distributions for each of the teams. The distributions are derived from the relative expected points ratings from Bill Connelly (S&P+), ESPN (FPI), and occasionally Ed Feng (The Power Rank). The key is that the ratings are mapped into expected points, which can be further translated into win probabilities. Each of these three ratings are generated from their respective advanced statistical analyses and metrics. In doing so, they achieve varied results ... some more pleasing than others depending on your point-of-view.

Anyway, here you will find further ruminations on said statistics into still more statistics as a means for enabling further discussion, jumping to conclusions, flying off of the handle or goading your rival. Also included in this round is another look at the all-important head-to-head win-differential probability distribution for the matchup between a select pair of contenders in the B1G East.

Schedules, Spreads & Win Probabilities

Now that the OOC segment of the season is in the rear view, it’s time to dive into the analyses of the Big Ten Conference segment of the schedule.

B1G East Schedule Rundown

The table of schedules below shows the overall schedules for all seven teams in the B1G East based on the Bill Connelly’s S&P+ weekly ratings. The last table simply shows a rank-ordering of the B1GE teams based on their  expected in-conference win totals, it’s not a projection of divisional standings based on projected wins, losses, and tie-breakers.

After resting up to weather its big tussle with Rutgers, the Buckeyes’ maintain their claim to being the only team in B1G East that is favored in all of its remaining games. OSU clings to its lead over U-M not only in the S&P+ ratings (in which U-M was #1 two weeks ago) but also in total expected wins, still edging the Wolverines by less than 0.2 wins. The only game U-M is not a favorite in is in Columbus at the end of November.  Both U-M and OSU expect to have nearly 8 B1G wins. What had appeared to be potentially tough road games for OSU - at Wisconsin, Penn State & Michigan State - have continued to soften like so much melting slush, now ranging from a double-digit margin against Wisconsin to three-score margin versus Sparty. In light of Indiana’s defeat of MSU, the Spartans’ prospects for B1GE contention have all but disappeared, and at this point it will be a struggle for Sparty to qualify for bowl eligibility, finding itself an underdog in four of its remaining B1G games. Remaining strong in the bowl-eligibility frame are Indiana, PSU and Maryland, all of show expected winning records in the B1G. Of that group as of now, PSU is an underdog in only two more games; Indiana, three; and Maryland, five. As such, five of seven teams in the Big Ten East may well become bowl eligible.

Here is a link to a similar table of schedule win probabilities based on FPI Ratings and the Power Rank-ings.

The FPI results differ slightly, with Michigan closing to within OSU by 0.04 wins - both just shy of 8 B1G wins. As with S&P+, FPI results also show OSU to be favored in all of its remaining games; U-M is an underdog only in The Game. The second tier of bowl-contenders in the FPI rundown has three teams: PSU, Maryland and possibly Indiana. PSU is an underdog in only one more game. Maryland and MSU are each underdogs in four remaining games. That would be sufficient to send Maryland bowling, as well as keep Sparty home. Indiana is an underdog in six games, so that loss to Wake Forest could do the Hoosiers in. Their best chances are to pick off Maryland or Penn State.

Of the 3 fancy-stats sources analyzed here, The Power Rank favors the Buckeyes the most. It estimates better than 8.2 wins for OSU, ahead of UM by nearly 0.8 wins. The 2nd tier of bowl-eligible teams are the same for PR, with Indiana on the bubble. Meanwhile, Sparty may be in for a bit of a competition with Rutgers to see which team finishes in last place in the B1G East. As of now the two are separated by less than 0.2 expected wins at the bottom of the division.

B1G East Expected Overall Wins

The bar plots below show the expected total overall wins distributions for teams in the B1G East, in alphabetical order. Noted above each bar is the probability for that number of wins (you may need to click & embiggen to read it). The bar with the highest value is the most likely outcome (the mode). Also flagged on each plot is the expected overall win total (the mean). The last line plot is just an overlay of the same data from the other seven bar plots.

What this round of distributions shows is that Michigan and Ohio State are tied for the highest modes at 8 wins, with OSU tilting toward and undefeated 9 wins, and Michigan leaning toward 7 wins. The next highest modes are Penn State, Maryland and Indiana, all at 5 Big Ten wins, followed by MSU with 3 and Rutgers with 1-win modes. Clearly, U-M and OSU are the most significant contenders to win the division by a wide margin. OSU now has the edge for the best chance of having an undefeated season at 32.3% (up from the 2.0% before beating the Sooners) or about 2:1 odds, followed by Michigan with an 18.8% likelihood (9:2 odds). At this point, the overlaid S&P+ distributions show the groupings of the Big Two and the second tier of bowl-contenders. Lagging behind are Sparty and the Black Sheep... er… Knights. Rutgers is the only team at this point registering any significant likelihood of going winless in the Big Ten at 33.7%.

Here are links to similar plots of conference win distributions based on FPI ratings and the Power Rank-ings.

The FPI results have reverted back to favoring OSU to a slight extent as mentioned  above, but not enough to separate modes. Both teams register a mode of 8 wins with OSU tilting slightly toward 9 wins; UM to the lower side. UM registers a 20.1% chance to win out (which is actually less than before playing Wisconsin), whereas OSU chance to go undefeated have increased to 27.6% after an already-certain win over Rutgers. From there, a clear separation of 3 wins exists to the next closest contenders, Penn State and Maryland, with modes of 5 wins, followed by Indy with a 4-win mode. MSU claims the sixth place mode of 3 wins.

The Power Rank results are a bit more disconcerting for M-fans, which show the Buckeyes standing alone atop the B1GE with a mode of an undefeated 9 wins, followed by the Wolverines at 8 wins. What’s more, the UM distribution is skewed to the lower side of 8 wins. As such, OSU has a 43.8% chance to go undefeated, while UM has a 9.5% chance. Beyond that, Maryland holds sole possession of the 3rd place mode of 5 wins, followed by PSU and Indy at 4 wins. MSU seems locked into the 3 win mode, and shows a distribution virtually indistinguishable from that of Rutgers. Woe is Sparty! What will they do when everyone else is benefitting from the extra practices for their hard-earned bowl games? It seems like it would be a good time to take up the practice of omphaloskepsis...

B1G West Schedule Rundown

The next table of schedules shows the overall schedules for the B1G West based on the Bill Connelly’s S&P+ weekly ratings. Again, the last table simply shows a rank-ordering of the B1GW teams based on their  expected win totals - it’s not a projection of divisional conference standings per se.

The  S&P+ results have the contenders in the B1GW, in order of overall expected wins, as Nebraska, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Iowa. Nebraska and Wisconsin have separated out from the others, and are within 0.3 wins of each other despite Wisconsin’s loss to UM. Minny and Iowa lag behind by about 1 win. No team is favored in all of its remaining games. Wisconsin is an underdog in only one remaining game, whereas Nebraska is an underdog in 2 games. Minnesota is an underdog in 3 remaining games, however, Iowa is an underdog in five, including a near toss-up with Nebraska to end the season, as well as their next matchup with Minnesota in this year’s installment of the battle for Floyd of Rosedale.

With its win over Iowa last week, Northwestern has managed to get a reprieve from resuming its long-lost role as doormat for the Big Ten. But still only favored in 2 remaining games, the Wildcats hopes of a bowl-bid remain ethereal. There’s still Illinois and Purdue, whom the Cats are favored to beat. Likewise, Illinois is favored in only 2 remaining games. Meanwhile, Purdue is favored in none of its games for the remainder of the year, its position as cellar-dweller unthreatened at this point, trailing all others by more than 2 wins.

Here are links to similar tables of schedule win probabilities based on FPI ratings and the Power Rank-ings.

FPI also expects only Nebraska, Wisconsin and Iowa to have winning B1G records.  Nebraska is the leader per FPI, showing a nearly 0.8 win edge over The Badgers. Iowa is another 1.0 wins back. Northwestern has creeped back up ahead of the Gophers - the Cats are now 0.3 wins behind the Hawkeyes. No team is favored in all of its games. Wisconsin, however, is an underdog in the fewest remaining games: one. Nebraska is a two-game dog. Iowa, Northwestern and Minnesota are all underdogs in four remaining games.

The Power Rank rundown of expected wins has Nebraska, Wisconsin, Iowa and Northwestern in order, with the Huskers and Badgers about 0.2 wins apart and ahead of the Hawkeyes and Cats by another 1.2 games. This top four is expecting winning records in the Big Ten. Similar to S&P+, Wisconsin is a one-game underdog and Nebraska, two games. However, Iowa is an underdog in only 3 games per the Power Rank, and it’s Minnesota that is the 5 game underdog.

The bottom line remains that the B1GW race will remain very competitive. The consensus at this point is that Nebraska and Wisconsin are evenly matched teams within about 0.5 games of each other, with Northwestern, Minnesota and Iowa lurking lurking another game or 1.5 back.

B1G West Expected Overall Wins

The bar plots below show the expected overall win distributions for the B1G West teams, in alphabetical order.

The story here is how virtually indistinguishable the distributions of Nebraska and Wisconsin remain, both with a mode of 6 B1G wins, tilting slightly to the low side. Minnesota and Iowa follow closely behind with modes of 5 wins, and then Northwestern at 4 wins. It appears highly unlikely that any team will have an undefeated season. Nebraska has the best chance of a one-loss season at 6.6%, followed by Wisconsin at 2.8%.

Here are links to similar plots of conference win distributions based on FPI ratings and the Power Rank-ings.

The FPI results tell a similar story, but with a modest amount of separation between Nebraska and Wisconsin. Both have the same mode of 6 wins, with the Huskers distribution leaning toward 7 wins, and the Badgers leaning back toward 5. Iowa, with its loss to Northwestern, drops back to the same tier with the Cats, holding onto a mode of 5 wins leaning toward 4, with the Cats showing a mode of 4 wins leaning toward 5. Meanwhile, Minny is straddling perfectly the 3 and 4 win modes. As such, those five teams are at least hopeful bowl-game qualifiers. The other two do not have promising post-season prospects.

The Power Rank results show more clearly evident stratification in the B1GW. It’s Nebraska and Wisconsin at the top with modes of 6 wins and almost indistinguishable and perfectly balanced distributions. Similarly, Northwestern and Iowa are matched up on 5 win modes that lean toward 4 wins. Minnesota is showing a 3 win mode leaning toward 4 wins, that is on the hairy edge of bowl eligibility.

Michigan vs. Ohio State Wins Differential

The win-differential distribution simply shows the likelihood of one team (Michigan) finishing with a conference record that is some number of games better or worse than another team (Ohio State). Keeping in mind that in the event of a tie, the winner of the head-to-head match up determines the tiebreaker … the probability of a tie in conference records (i.e. a win differential of zero) is then pro-rated in proportion to the win probability of the head-to-head game. The same principle also applies to the probabilities of either team having a one-game lead going into the head-to-head (i.e. win differentials of +1 and -1). This is because a team trailing by one game would still clinch the tie-breaker by winning the final head-to-head game. Thus, the total likelihood of Michigan finishing ahead of Ohio State is the sum of all the maize-and-blue shaded bars (i.e. U-M wins two or more games than OSU), plus a proportional split of the -1, 0 and +1-differential bars. It’s worth noting that this total likelihood does not indicate the likelihood of making it to the B1G Championship, as it says nothing about how other teams in the B1G East do, or even how Michigan or Ohio State do in the absolute sense. For example, if both teams were to finish tied in the B1G at 6-3, which means that UM and OSU would be losing 3 games each, other teams are clearly winning those games - and so another team may well be the B1GE representative in Indy.

S&P+

So, beginning with the results of the S&P+ analysis, the chart below shows that the most likely outcome (41.4% likelihood) is that U-M will finish in a tie with OSU heading into Columbus. Thus, as in days of yore, The Game would decide who plays for the B1G Championship. Looking at the tie-breaker scenario, OSU is favored with a win probability of 67.2%, so it collects 27.8 points of the 41.4 points for the likelihood of winning coming in tied (and finishing ahead one game). U-M collects the remaining 13.6 points.

The second most likely scenario, with a 25.9% likelihood, is that UM comes into Columbus one game ahead of OSU. Of this, OSU collects another 17.4 point share for the likelihood of winning coming in behind by one game (thus finishing in a tie, but OSU winning the tie-breaker).

The next most likely scenario, with a 19.4% likelihood, is that UM comes into Columbus trailing by one game. Of this, UM collects a 6.4 point share for its likelihood of winning (thus finishing in a tie, but UM winning the tie-breaker).

The other outcomes are relatively straightforward in that either team would have already clinched finishing the season ahead of the other team. In total, OSU has a 62.6% likelihood of finishing the season ahead of UM, or about a 5:3 chance.

FPI

Continuing on, here is the same chart based on the FPI ratings following the week 5 results. This shows a somewhat tighter race to the B1GCG between U-M and OSU, with the most likely outcome also being that the teams head into Columbus with the same record. In the head-to-head matchup, OSU’s home field advantage gives them a 64.8% likelihood to win the game, and so the tie-breaker modes are apportioned accordingly. The sum it up, according to FPI, OSU has a 59% likelihood of finishing ahead of UM in the standings, or about a 3:2 chance.

The Power Rank

Last but not least is The Power Rank, which seems to be more smitten with the Buckeyes’ win over a 2-2 Oklahoma team (PR #8, AP #20) than the Wolverines’ win over a 4-1 Colorado team (PR #43, AP #21). The end result is that OSU is a heavy favorite (78.6% likelihood) to beat UM in Columbus. That’s a 12.3 point margin, folks! As such, despite the most likely outcome being that the teams are tied going into Columbus, UM doesn’t stand much of a chance says the Power Rank. In all, Ohio State has a 77.1% likelihood to finish ahead of Michigan, or about 7:2 odds.

So there you have it. The Big Ten East is as competitive as ever, and Michigan football remains poised to make a serious run at a Big Ten Championship for the first time since well, last year. With the current numbers, it seems like to proverbial puncher’s chance, which means in football parlance, if the underdog can manage to hang around into the fourth quarter, it’s anybody’s game. Until then, it's the competition that will be looking to elevate its game to meet Michigan's, and in that way, things are right in world.

Yours in football, and Go Blue!