Attempting to Evaluate the OL and Running Game Using Statistics

Submitted by MichAero on

Reading all of the debate about the offensive line and the running game, I decided to do some research about the matter. I looked at the 2013 and 2014 YPC and adjusted them against the opponents YPC allowed. I also looked at sacks allowed, and compared them to the opponents average.

Note: I used YPC as a way to control for tempo, and it helps to find a common link between each game. For reference, I added the opponents rushing YPC rank along the y-axis. They are chronological-- CMU is the top and KSU is the bottom of 2013, and App State is the top for 2014.

To start with, I looked at Michigan's total YPC against each team. I then took this number and subtracted each opponents YPC allowed. I outputted this information into a graph, below. Values above 0 are good, values below 0 are bad. 

The previous graph shows that out of our 13 games, we rushed better than the opponents average 6 times, and worse 7 times. However, only 2 times did we rush over 1 YPC more than the opponents average. On the flipside, 5 teams held us to 1 YPC less than their average or worse, with 2 teams obliterating us. It appears, IMO, that UCONN found our weakness and other teams after were able to capitalize.

Additionally, Minnesota (at 90th) and Indiana (at 117th) were poor run defense that shut us down. The final 2 games are a bit surprising. OSU can be chalked up to a rivalry game, or so I thought, but even with our backup QB we rushed decently against KSU (though only on 15 attempts).

The following graph shows the same data, but for this year. Some caveats apply: Only 6 games played thus far, with a large portion against poor teams, for instance.

From here, we can see that 2 teams have done better against us than their average, but not by nearly as much as 2013. Additionally, we have done a better job against the defenses we should, and even have an above average performance against what appears to be a good run defending team (Utah).

These numbers are subject to change throughout the season, but there appears to be a window for at least some hope.

Next, I looked at sacks allowed by our OL. Again, I subtracted the defenses average sacks from this number (adjusting it by taking out sacks against us). I did this here to get a view of how we stacked up against their other opponents.

Note: I also did these same graphs without adjusting (by taking out our sacks), and the charts are still roughly the same. The numbers skew a bit, but the trend is still there. Also, the numbers along the y-axis are the opponents rank for sacks per game.

The following graph is from 2013. Here, numbers below 0 are considered good, and numbers above 0 are considered bad.

Similar to the YPC chart, we started better and finished better, but struggled hard in the middle. We gave up an above average amount of sacks against teams ranked 100 and 103, and our best performance was against a team ranked 48. It is understandable to give up some sacks to Nebraska (20), but the amount is concerning. UCONN was the 100th team, by the way, again suggesing that they exposed a huge weakness.

The 2014 chart is next. This is subject to change much more, as the competition and small sample size make a more complete picture.

Thus far, the line appears to actually be doing a much better job of avoiding sacks, compared with how the opponents are playing against other teams. This is even against the 1st and 8th best teams as far as average sacks go. Utah, for instance, is averaging 5.6 sacks per game against everyone, and we "held" them to 4. Rutgers is averaging 4, and we "held" them to 3. Notre Dame is the lone exception this time, and I would contend that is more a product of having the lead that they did and didn't have to worry about us running nearly as much.

And lastly, I looked at a combination of the above. I took the sacks out of the rushing stats, and recalculated both our YPC and the opponents YPCA. The 2013 graph is shown below.

This actually looks worse to me. Now, we only have 4 performances above the average, and one just barely. 

The 2014 one is next:

Here instead, we are now below average only once. Our rutgers performance is a bit weaker now, as is Utah, but the other performances are better than in the previous graph.

You are free to draw your own conclusions from these. There is obviously a lot more football to be played, but the early numbers are looking decent. We are running better against better defenses, and actually performing better than average against a couple aggressive defenses. I think the sacks above average might start getting closer to 0 as we move into conference play, but that will be something to keep an eye on.

If you have any suggestions, comments, criticism, etc., please feel free to share. If there is interest, I will try and update this post as the season continues (assuming I have the time to do so).


UPDATE: I have added in a similar analysis using sack percentage. Thank you for the suggestion. I have also done an analysis on YPC, and sack % after the first 6 games from last year as a comparison.

The first graph is for the 2013 sack percentage above average. Negative numbers are good while positive numbers are bad.

As you can see, we still have 6 good performances and 7 poor performances. Unfortunately, all games against an opponent worse than 100 we did poor against. And again, it looks like we had some flaws exposed, but this time it suggests we might actually have done something at the end to fix them. Whether that is scheme, or players just producing and developing, I cannot say.

The numbers so far for 2014 are shown now.

Here, we see that our Rutgers performance was worse than the first analysis shows, and the Minnesota numbers become average. I'm not worried about the average Minnesota numbers because it was just one sack. The Rutgers number scares me a bit more, but if you look at the context I'm not sure it should. We were playing a night game on the road, like against ND. This time, though, we allowed just one sack in the second half, and that was on our opening drive of the 2nd half. Yes, we don't want to give up 3 sacks on those few passing attempts, but just throughout the game we saw some improvement IMO.

Next, I looked at the sack percentage from 2013, but looked at just how our first 6 opponents faired in their first 6 games.

We can see from this that the trends stay mostly in line, surprisingly. The CMU game and the Akron games look better here than they end up, and the UCONN game looks worse. The other games stay about where they are.

Finally, I did the same YPC analysis above, where I took out sacks, and looked at the first 6 games.

What we see is that the first 2 games look better here (CMU and ND), as do the last 2 (Minnesota and PSU). The middle two stayed roughly the same. The game against ND shifted by about 1.25 YPC.  I think that this shows that this isn't quite as good as it looked initially, but I don't want to make any sweeping conclusions here.

I wanted to add that I used data from cfbstats.com, and I got the rankings from teamrankings.com.

Comments

UMaD

October 8th, 2014 at 12:04 AM ^

This is fantastic. It disagrees with my arguments in the other thread but I have no problem backing off when presented with good quality information.  While not necessarily conclusive, it is vastly to superior to looking at RB YPC.

Great work.

One thought/suggestion: it would be nice if the sacks were also adjusted by pass attempts.

MichAero

October 8th, 2014 at 11:02 AM ^

I added a new section taking your suggestion about sack percentage into account. I additionally added a graph looking at the first 6 games for adjusted ypc and sack percentage. I didn't have time to do a full analysis of it yet, and I'm not sure what exactly can be drawn from it yet, but it is there to look at.

UMaD

October 8th, 2014 at 12:19 AM ^

Last year we were average (within .5 ypc) in 2 games, above average in 2 games, and below average in 2 games. No relationship to quality of opponent, we were just inconsistent.

This year we were average (within .5 ypc) in 4 games, and above average in 2 games.  The 2 games were were above average were our two cupcakes (App State and Miami)

Tentative Theory:

I think what we're seeing with the running game is some burgeoning competance. We can dominate a lesser opponent in ways we could not last year. That's where our talent can overcome inexperience and lack of cohesion. Against 'normal' competition we are average, playing below our talent level.

UMaD

October 8th, 2014 at 12:25 AM ^

Early season scehdules are full of cupcakes, for everyone.Even App State beat something (someone?) called 'Campbell" 66-0. As the season moves on these outliers will be filtered out and the opponent averages will normalize.  Right now, Michigan is the 2nd or 3rd best team Utah has played, so our numbers look relatively good.  By the end of the year we will be the 7th or 8th and the numbers will look a lot less good.

You Only Live Twice

October 8th, 2014 at 8:29 AM ^

You must actually BE a rocket scientist :)

and it is interesting to contemplate.  Anything that gives hope of a win this Saturday!

mlax27

October 8th, 2014 at 9:36 AM ^

Would love to see how this changes from week to week.  I think the early season numbers could be skewed by using having played a couple bad OOC teams, and our BCS opponents having their numbers inflated due to playing a number of bad teams as well.  Over time as the conference schedule gets going that should move our opponents average. 

But it is good to see some progress quantified, which is about all the hope I have left for this season.

ST3

October 8th, 2014 at 10:38 AM ^

It's worth noting that Jack Miller was the starting center in the first four games of 2013. I know he got bashed for getting pushed back too often, but maybe he's pretty good at making the line calls. When they replaced him at center, the first chart highlights that's really when the problems started.

This is a really nice analysis.

MichAero

October 8th, 2014 at 1:36 PM ^

I hadn't thought about that effect. I think a lot of us were excited at the time based on UFR score difference between Miller and Glasgow, but that doesn't, as far as I know, take the line calls into account. It is certainly possible that in trying to be more physical, they actually hindered the offense.

SeattleChris

October 8th, 2014 at 11:56 AM ^

Got the same feel from watching how things have progressed and reading the UFRs. Learning a new system and getting comfortable with a coach's rhythm in calling plays and learning what works with the players (especially QBs as different in style as Shane and DG) takes time and apparently spring ball and fall practice wasn't enough, but in those practices you focus on "your stuff" and not as much on the different fronts and coverages that opponents will throw at you week to week and the game planning chess match.

Unfortunately we didn't have much of a luxury with this year's early opponents looking better than we thought, my view having watched Rutgers in person vs. WSU was it was always going to be a tougher game than anticipated, given the environment and Utah is better than advertised, although they seem to be an enigma losing to WSU then beating UCLA. Both teams we should beat by the M standard as referenced ad naseum here on mgoblog.

The Minnesota game is the one thing I just can't figure out. That team is not good, but I'm curious to know what the "sitting Devin" issue was, as it seems like something deeper than the yips and turnover issues. In all the interviews (e.g. Norfleet and Clark) the players and coaches allude to something he did though we'll probably never know what. Even without the program drama and Devin's issues these look like risky/poor decisions by the coordinators: bet the D scheme on Peppers along with hope for a pass rush we've never really had and too much tight formation manball and waggles on O. This alone doomed us from a scheme and RPS POV, but maybe that was Coach Brandon (that will be my own baseless internal narrative), at any rate it just piles up to a Mt. Everest of suckiness and ennui.

Would really love a candid interview with Nuss to compare the atmosphere and position coaching/player development between 'Bama and UM. Maybe we'll get that after this season.

Sucks that this is the situation, hopefully they team learns and can pull an upset or two out of this trash heap of a season while the program moves on to better days under a new regime. Would be nice to beat PSU, but then again I thought we would take it to Rutgers.