2014-2015 Michigan State Basketball Preview
Michigan State:
I am higher on the Spartans than most people on here. I think that somehow Izzo is going to get this team to win games. I think that Valentine and Dawson are going to be two very good players. Michigan State loses Dan Chapman, Adreian Payne, and Keith Appling to graduation. In addition, Gary Harris is leaving for the NBA. Also, Russell Byrd is foregoing his final year of elgibility. Losing these players means losing:
45% MPG
58% PPG
36% RPG
47% APG
48% SPG
37% BPG
Now this is quite a lot to lose but it could be worse. They could have three players going pro like other teams in the conference. Here is the catch, Alex Gauna has not decided if he is going to take his fifth year. And although he is not a starter, he is an important role-player. Here is what they lose if he leaves.
50% MPG
59% PPG
38% RPG
47% APG
48% SPG
40% BPG
Not only do they lose some real minutes, they lose valuable experience. This player is not going to be all B1G but losing him means losing serious depth. Here is what their roster looks like:
# Name HT WT YR POS
15 Keenan Wetzel 6-4 210 RS.SR SG
Only played 22 minutes all of last year, will not play.
2 Alex Gauna 6-9 250 RS.SR C
Played 7 minutes a game last year. He will get about 10 minutes a game this year unless he decides not to take his fifth year.
20 Travis Trice 6-0 170 SR. PG
The starting Point Guard, candidate for "alien of the year". He averaged 22 minutes a game last year when Keith was being tough and he will get about 30 this year. He should be their 3rd option to score this year.
22 Branden Dawson 6-6 225 SR. PF
Branden is arguably their best player. He may not be a scorer but he is a man on the boards and a very good defender. He will start at Power Forward. If Dan Dakich does not break Dawson's hand again then he should be on track for all B1G.
41 Colby Wollenman 6-7 225 RS.JR SF
Will not play.
45 Denzel Valentine 6-5 225 JR. SF
The starting Small Forward, will be their go-to scorer. If he plays to his full ability he could be a lock to go to the NBA. Frontrunner for the "Needs Braces" team.
10 Matt Costello 6-9 240 JR. C
The starting Center, could be pretty good next year and a more than servicable starter.
13 Trevor Bohnhoff 6-7 215 JR. PF
Will not play.
30 Kenny Kaminski 6-8 225 RS.SO PF
A three point shooter, will pick up odd minutes at the 3-5.
34 Gavin Schilling 6-9 225 SO. C
An uber athletic fouling machine. He picks up 8 fouls every 40 minutes, which is good for him fouling out in 25 minutes. Not good. He will pick up minutes.
3 Alvin Ellis III 6-4 195 SO. SG
The biggest mystery on their team, he only played 7 minutes a game last year. I think he will start later on in the year. Early in the year I think Valentine will slide down with Dawson at the three and Kaminski at the 4.
Lourawls Nairn 5-10 170 FR. PG
A four star, the #15 Point Guard in this class. He will be the back-up 1 this year.
Javon Bess 6-5 195 FR. SG
A three star, the #20 Shooting Guard in this class. He will back-up Ellis at the 2.
Marvin Clark 6-7 219 FR. PF
A three star, the #40 Power Forward in this class. He will be the back-up 3.
Projected Starting Lineup:
Point Guard: Travis Trice
Shooting Guard: Alvin Ellis III
Small Forward: Denzel Valentine
Power Forward: Branden Dawson
Center: Matt Costello
Losing Gauna would make this team worse than Michigan, but with him, MSU barely has the edge. I think State will go 4th in the B1G and 12-6 in the conference.
Next up... Ohio State
I still like us better. Dawson has never been a creater for scoring and Valentine is off and on. He seems to always play bad against us.
He's a good player, but a lock for the NBA if he plays to his full ability?!?
Draymond Green was the absolute best case scenario for a 6"6 point forward who isn't very athletic. Valentine has the same skill set, but is half as good right now. Green was a second round draft pick who is carving out a nice niche. So, if Valentine can become harness every last drop of skill and become an All-American and POY candidate, he might have a shot in the late first round.
A nice player. May be All-Big Ten, but I don't see the NBA upside. He'll need to develop into Draymond Green to have a realistic shot.
They are going to be better than most people expect, IMO Anywhere from the 2nd - 3rd place Big Ten team to challenging for the title. They are (almost) a guarenteed tourney team.
Loosing 2 first rounders to the NBA (Harris and Payne) will hurt. Appling was as much of a liability as an asset the second half of the year. They were better with Trice running the show.
How good they will be will all depends on how their development is over the offseason. Injuries mean a lot too, because they won't be deep.
Trice is underrated. Dawson is a beast on the boards. Valentine has a lot of potential, but played very sloppy and out of control at times.
Their weakness will be they don't have a true scorer on the roster.
Thank you, I will adjust accordingly if Gauna leaves. Right now, I think they will tie with Michigan. If Gauna leaves, Michigan jumps over them. I may be overrating them, but 14 minutes a game is crucial.
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