When Last We Saw Them

This will live inside Crisler Center forever and wow does it look beautiful #GoBlue 〽️ pic.twitter.com/7E2dJKwaTY

— Michigan Women’s Gymnastics (@UMichWGym) January 15, 2022

Pretty, pretty good.

Michigan’s women’s gymnastics team, the hegemonic leader of the Big Ten for three decades, finally broke through for their first national championship in program history in April. Michigan was not the favorite heading into the Finals, but they defeated defending champion Oklahoma by less than a tenth of a point on the strength of a program record score of 198.250. The competition came down to the last routine of the entire season, with Abby Heiskell bringing home the hardware.

The title represented the culmination of a dominant home stretch of the season, in which Michigan led wire-to-wire from the second rotation of the Regional Semi-Finals all the way through Regional Finals, National Semi-Finals, and eventually National Finals. They put up program record scores four times in the final six weeks of the season, winning another Big Ten regular season title along the way. Inside Gymnastics Magazine did a fantastic video recap of the 2021 season which I highly recommend.
 

Chalk Monster

Amidst all of the very loud goings-on with the football team and the men’s and women’s basketball teams, Michigan’s only defending national champion has quietly gone about assembling a juggernaut. A flipping, spinning, toe-pointing Kaiju. Instead of resting on their laurels, Michigan women’s gymnastics chose violence. Graceful, well-choreographed violence, to be sure… but violence nonetheless.

As a warmup act, they opened the season with a win over traditional national power Georgia with a fantastic score of 197.750*, a score only six other teams in the country have put up at any point this season. Having knocked any tiny bits of rust off, they jumped straight into as fine a streak of four meets as you’ll find. They scored a 197.95 in a win over Arizona State, 198.025 in a road win over Minnesota, 197.925 in a win over Michigan State, and 198.525 in a defenestration of Rutgers. For comparison purposes, Michigan hadn’t eclipsed 198.000 in its entire program history until this past March. Only Oklahoma, Florida, and LSU have put up team totals equal to the lowest of those four scores this season, and those three teams have combined for 13 of the 16 champions and runners-up over the last 8 seasons. Michigan is swimming with the big fish this season, and is, as the youths say, stunting on ‘em.

The Rutgers meet was particularly eye-opening. Michigan’s 198.525 is the highest score in the country this season by 0.275 points, and was the sixth-highest score in NCAA history. Not Michigan history, mind you, but NCAA history. Their vault score of 49.875 was the second highest in NCAA history, with Reyna Guggino, Natalie Wojcik, and Abby Heiskell leading off the rotation with three straight perfect 10.0s (followed by a 9.975 by Naomi Morrison that absolutely should have been a 10.0 as well). Overall, Michigan put up four perfect 10s on the evening, with Gabby Wilson grabbing one on floor to go along with the three on vaults.

[Oprah voice] YOU get a 10.0… YOU get a 10.0… EVERYBODY gets a 10.0…

This past Sunday, Michigan rested some athletes and tallied a pedestrian score (by their newfound standards) of 197.600, which would still be enough for a #3 ranking nationally if Michigan put that number up every week.

Michigan is currently ranked #1 nationally with an average of 197.963, leading second-place Florida by 0.325 points. They’re ranked #1 on vault and floor, #2 on bars, and #5 on beam. Individually, Michigan has 2 athletes in the top 10 in the All Around**, 4 of the top 11 on vault, the #2 athlete on bars, 2 of the top 10 on beam, and 3 of the top 10 on floor. Vegas currently has Michigan as the betting favorite to repeat as champions… or at least they would if they put out lines on such things.

*For those unfamiliar with college gymnastics scoring, each team performs six routines on each of the four events (vault, bars, beam, and floor). The lowest of the six scores score on each event is dropped, with the remaining 20 scores being added together for a total team score out of a possible 200 points. The easiest way to think about team scores is “how far away from 50 points was this rotation score” and “how far from 200 points was the total score.” So winning 198.000-197.000 is actually a very healthy margin despite being a ‘one point win’, as it means racking up 33% fewer deductions.

**All Around isn’t a separate competition, but is rather a composite score for individuals who compete all four events in a given meet. Only meets in which an athlete competes on all four events counts towards these standings.

The Roster

Michigan is led by… well… that’s a good question, and one that hints at why this team is so good.

Senior Natalie Wojcik set the Michigan single-meet All Around scoring record in the above-referenced Rutgers Explosion meet with a 39.825 (with a 10.0, two 9.95’s, and 9.925), and is probably Michigan’s best and most consistent gymnast. Wojcik won an NCAA individual title on beam in 2019, and has put up at least a 9.95 on every event this season. She has performed 21 routines, and 16 have scored a 9.90 or higher. She’s a machine.

Wojcik: very good imo [David Wilcomes]

But alongside Wojcik are three (!) 2021 first team All-Americans, in Sierra Brooks, Gabby Wilson, and Abby Heiskell. There are few gymnasts in the country with a ceiling quite as high as Brooks, who in addition to being an All-American in the All Around, was first team on bars, beam, AND floor in 2021. Thus far this season she has put up at least a 9.95 on each apparatus. Gabby Wilson has possibly the best single routine of anyone on the team, with her floor routine *averaging* a 9.96 (with a 10.0 and four 9.95’s). Wilson has hit a fantastic stride in recent weeks, scoring at least a 39.625 (i.e. averaging better than a 9.90) in the last three meets in which she competed in the All Around. Heiskell hasn’t been quite as consistent as she was last season, but is still putting up big scores on a regular basis. Any of the three can home better than a 39.600 (i.e. a 9.90 average) on any given night.

Naomi Morrison is Michigan’s fifth all-arounder, and has been extremely reliable; of her 19 routines this season, 16 have been at least a 9.825. She also wins the Price Is Right award for Best Routine Without Going Over, scoring 9.975 FOUR different times -- the highest mathematically possible score short of a 10.0, and meaning half the judges for each of those routines gave her a 10.0 -- but has yet to be take home a perfecto. But that’s only a matter of time, especially because Morrison is only a sophomore.

In terms of event specialists, sophomore Reyna Guggino has been in every vault and beam lineup this season, and has appeared regularly on floor. Abby Brenner has been Michigan’s highest scoring non-Wojcik bar routine, and has been a fixture on floor as well. Underclassmen Jenna Morrison and Jacey Vore would probably be competing in the All Around for every Big Ten team other than Michigan and Minnesota, but at the moment Michigan has the luxury of working them in slowly.

The Big Ten Picture

Michigan women’s gymnastics wins the Big Ten. It’s tautological. Axiomatic. Damn near a priori. Michigan has 24 Big Ten titles since 1992. The rest of the Big Ten combined has 5 titles in that span. And given Michigan’s newly ascendant status, one would not expect a lot of competition in this of all years. However, Michigan does face a legitimate challenger for throne.

Getting so cluttered they’re gonna need to call Marie Kondo

Minnesota has long been the best non-Michigan team in the Big Ten, and they actually defeated Michigan in the Big Ten Championship Meet last season (think ‘Big Ten Championship Tournament,’ but one in which Xavier Simpson would be a giant). This season, the Gophers are ranked #6 in the country with an average of 197.313. They have two of the top 7 All Around gymnasts in the country in Lexy Ramler and Ona Loper, either of whom could easily come home as national All Around champions this season. They put up a season-high 197.650 against Michigan on January 24th, posing far and away the stiffest competition Michigan has faced; it was the only time this season that the outcome was at all in doubt entering the final rotation, and the only meet in which Michigan’s margin was less than 1.15 points. But as Nebraska Football reminds us on a regular basis, close doesn’t count, and Michigan prevailed by a healthy if close-fought 0.375 points.

With Minnesota (and to a lesser extent #14 Michigan State) vanquished, Michigan’s path to the regular season crown appears minimally impeded. They have a Big Five meet tonight against #17 Iowa, #22 Ohio State, #26 Illinois, and #39 Maryland, but it is exceedingly unlikely that Michigan will face a real threat; none of those teams have cracked 197.000 on the season, and only Iowa has posted a score that is within 1.000 point of Michigan’s lowest score (and even then, they only did so once). Michigan also has a layup against Nebraska, but realistically, finishing higher than Iowa tonight sews up the regular season crown. However, a rematch with Minnesota in the Big Ten Championship Meet looms. If Michigan and Minnesota both stumble, Michigan State has an outside shot at grabbing that title. MSU just set a program record 197.425 last week, and while they don’t have the scoring upside of some of the top teams, they have made great strides under head coach Mike Rowe to become a solid middle-class program.

The National Picture

At the top levels, NCAA women’s gymnastics is a sport of Haves and Have-Nots because of the way scoring is structured. With Olympic-style scoring, you can get a huge score from someone like Simone Biles and ride that to a win. In NCAA scoring (where everything is capped at a 10.0), a team’s fifth best routine in a given rotation carries as much weight as its best routine. So between injuries and event specialists, a team realistically needs eight or nine elite-level gymnasts to be nationally compete, and these schools only have twelve scholarships to work with. It is EXTREMELY difficult to accrue the depth of talent necessary to put six competitive routines out on every event.

Fortunately, Michigan is emphatically a "Have.” They have at least six quality routines for every event, and in most cases they have at least one quality routine on the bench at any given time. That puts them in he very select group who can realistically hope to win a title.

Exhibit A [via mgoblue.com]

Michigan’s chief competition comes from the usual suspects. #3 Oklahoma has 4 championships and 3 runner-up finishes in the last 7 seasons. They lost 2021 NCAA All Around, Vault and Floor champion Anastasia Webb to graduation, but they still have a ridiculous wealth of talent.  #2 Florida, led by Trinity Thomas, has made 8 of the last 9 NCAA Finals with three titles in that span. They are currently ranked in the Top 4 on every event. We already mentioned #6 Minnesota, but they are a contender to make their first-ever Final. #4 Utah and #5 LSU are always strong, and #7 Auburn boasts possibly the best gymnast in college gymnastics in Olympic star Suni Lee (fellow Olympian Jade Carey, if you’re curious, is currently leading the NCAA in All Around average for #13 Oregon State).

The four team national final will almost certainly consist of four of those top seven teams, with an outside shot that a team like Alabama or Cal might grabs a spot of things go pear-shaped ahead of them in the semifinals.

So?

What do you mean “So?”

You know.

I really don’t.

Are they gonna win it again?

No earthy idea.

C’mon. You made me read this entire thing, and you’re not going to make a prediction about how it ends?

Not a chance.

It’s a crapshoot. Florida was the #1 team in the country in 2021 entering the Finals, but they had to count a fall on bars in their first rotation of Finals and never had a shot to recover. Michigan won the title, but was one tiny wobble away from finishing second and one medium wobble away from finishing 3rd. Alabama missed out on making the finals by .025 points, which is literally the difference of a wobble so small half of the judges didn’t see it. Gymnastics be like that.

So what CAN you tell us?

Let’s talk about National Qualifying Scores.

 

For those who have been wondering, the NQS (women) this year will be the same formula typically used in years past (top 6 scores, 3 must be away, drop high, avg remaining 5 scores). The first rankings to be ordered by NQS will be released on Feb 21st.

— RoadToNationals.com (@RoadToNationals) February 12, 2022

NQS is how the NCAA ranks teams for postseason competition. It’s something like the NET for basketball. It matters for Michigan less this year because they’re almost certainly going to finish among the top couple of scores nationally, but it’s there. If anything, finishing #3 might actually make Michigan’s path to Nationals moderately easier than being #1 (Being #1 requires you to finish higher than either #8 or #9, whereas being #3 means you just have to finish higher than #6 or #11). Regardless, Michigan will be the heavy favorite to reach Nationals (i.e. the Elite Eight) out of their region.

Enough math. This whole thing had so much math. Use words.

Fine, let’s talk about what Michigan has going for it:

• Vault – Michigan is ranked #1 in the country by a LOT. Vault is, on average, the lowest scoring event for elite teams, and Michigan is #1 by 0.229 points. For some perspective, the gap between Michigan and #2 Florida is the bigger than the gap between #2 Florida and #13 Cal. One reason is that Michigan is able to put out six vaults that start out of a 10.0, whereas most programs (including some elite programs) have some vaulters that start out of a 9.95 or even a 9.90. Having a dominant event like that can make a big difference. I mean, this is ridiculous.

Ask and you shall receive!

All ✋ scorers from our historic vault rotation.#GoBlue 〽️ pic.twitter.com/c4dHg2KnMU

— Michigan Women’s Gymnastics (@UMichWGym) February 5, 2022

• Depth – As mentioned above, Michigan is very deep. They’ve also been relatively healthy, despite losing Carly Bauman to a season-ending injury shortly before the season opener. That depth also allows Michigan to rest athletes from time to time, and to manage workloads for athletes who might be banged up. It also gives Michigan options if an athlete starts to struggle, which happens from time to time in this insane physically, mentally and emotionally demanding sport (see: Biles, Greatest American Athlete Ever Simone).
• Experience – Rings, son. Rings.
• Championship Bump – Gymnastics remains a judged sport, and judges remain human (at least until Elon Musk gets into the game, at which point scores will be judged by robots that will take 23 minutes to assign wildly inaccurate scores and will accidentally impale three gymnasts per year). Many people in gymnastics will tell you that judging is biased in favor of the top teams, and while “biased” may be a loaded term, it’s undeniable that top teams occasionally get the benefit of the doubt in scoring. As the defending national champion, Michigan might get the slight tailwind of some favorable – or at least not disfavorable – scores, especially at the Regional level.

And what Michigan has going against it:

• Beam – A 49.300 average is very, very good, and being #5 nationally in your weakest event is the definition of a First World Gymnastics Problem, but nevertheless, beam has been Michigan’s lowest score in every meet thus far this season. Out of 24 rotations this season, Michigan has only had 5 rotation scores below a 49.400, and all five have come on beam.  Also, the beam is very, very narrow. Some would say unreasonably narrow.
• General Bloodymindedness of the Universe – Injuries happen, random bad meets happen, COVID happens. The Big Ten Championship Meet can be lost with a couple of bad routines, and getting through four rounds to win a National Championship requires two solid meets, one great meet, and one phenomenal meet. Kaiju or no, that’s daunting.
• Cracks in the Armor – Remember how I said you drop one score from every rotation? Well, Michigan has had the luxury of dropping five different falls through six meets. They’ve gotten away with it because they haven’t occurred in the same rotation, but they haven’t been perfect.

Pictured: elite athlete, stupidly narrow piece of wood [Madeline Hinkley]

So you’re saying that Libya is a land of contrasts

I told you, you can’t predict this stuff. All I can tell you is where they’ll be and what they’ll try to do.

After the Big Five meet and a dual with Nebraska, Michigan will travel to Norman for a massive dual meet with #3 Oklahoma, which will serve as a nice dress rehearsal for the end of the season. They then return home on March 12 for a three-way Senior Night meet with Auburn and West Virginia, which I *highly* recommend attending. The next week is the Big Ten Championship Meet in… ugh… Columbus.

After that, Michigan will be a part of the NCAA tournament (I.e. the Round of 32) as one of the top seeds, likely in Champaign. There are four Regional meets. The Regional Semifinal has a morning and an evening session, each with four teams. The two highest scores from each session advance to the Regional Final, and the two highest scores from the Regional Final advance to Nationals. The same process repeats at Nationals, with two sessions reducing the field from eight to four, and the National Finals being a winner-take-all. No scores carry over from round to round, so each day is a fresh opportunity/horror.

Big Tens are March 19. Regionals are March 31/April 2. Nationals are April 14/16. They will all be televised. Prepare your fingernails accordingly.