KBA's squad comes back en masse [JD Scott]

Women's Basketball Look-Ahead: Run It Back Comment Count

Ace March 20th, 2020 at 1:36 PM

Michigan had another successful season under Kim Barnes Arico, going 21-11 (10-8 Big Ten) with a signature win over a ranked Northwestern squad in the Big Ten Tournament quarterfinals. Had there been an NCAA Tournament, the Wolverines would've made it for the third straight year, likely as an eight- or nine-seed.

While that means Michigan's season likely would've ended in the second round on their opponent's home court for the third straight year, this year still felt like progress. Naz Hillmon emerged as a contender for the best player to ever come through the program. When senior Kayla Robbins tore her ACL and her replacement, sophomore Danielle Rauch, also missed time to injury, freshman Maddie Nolan stepped into the starting lineup and the team kept rolling.


the NCAA granted Akienreh Johnson a fifth year [David Wilcomes]

There's a lot of reasons to be excited about the program heading into next year, beginning with how little they lose from this year's roster. Starting guard Akeinreh Johnson, the team's fourth-leading scorer and leader in steals, was granted a fifth year by the NCAA for her injury-shortened freshman year, so the only player currently expected to depart the roster is Robbins, whose injury occurred too late in the season to save her eligibility.

While Robbins was the team's second-leading scorer in the 18 games she played, Michigan got accustomed to life without her, going 9-5 in her absence despite a tough closing stretch that included three games against B1G co-champion Northwestern (M went 1-2).

The Roster Situation

There's no scholarship crunch here despite a lack of departures and four incoming freshmen. The NCAA allows for 15 scholarships for women's basketball teams, two more than the 13 allotted for men's teams. At the moment, Michigan is slated to have 14 scholarship players on the roster.

Scholarship 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24
1 A. Johnson (RS Sr.) A. Dilk M. Nolan M. Fiso
2 H. Brown (Sr.) N. Hillmon M. Sidor W. Sollom
3 P. Smeenge (Sr.) E. Kiser I. Varejao E. Stuck
4 A. Dilk (Jr.) D. Rauch M. Fiso C. Williams
5 N. Hillmon (Jr.) M. Nolan W. Sollom  
6 E. Kiser (Jr.) M. Sidor E. Stuck  
7 D. Rauch (Jr.) I. Varejao C. Williams  
8 M. Nolan (So.) M. Fiso    
9 M. Sidor (So.) W. Sollom    
10 I. Varejao (So.) E. Stuck    
11 M. Fiso (Fr.) C. Williams    
12 W. Sollom (Fr.)      
13 E. Stuck (Fr.)      
14 C. Williams (Fr.)      
15 (open)      

Barnes Arico can easily open next season with the same starting lineup she used to close this one: senior Hailey Brown and Naz Hillmon in the frontcourt flanked by Nolan, Johnson, and talented junior point guard Amy Dilk. There's some exciting talent from last year's bench and this year's incoming class that could change things up, though.

[Hit THE JUMP for the fresh faces.]

The Newcomers

commit Meghan Fiso is #32 in black

As best I can find, there are two sites—ESPN and Prospects Nation—that do detailed women's basketball recruiting rankings. Barnes Arico has put together ESPN's #15 class, second in the Big Ten behind #8 Rutgers(!) and just ahead of Iowa, Ohio State, Purdue, and Minnesota, which rank 17-20 in that order. Prospects Nation ranks the class 19th, behind OSU (#10), Maryland (#12), and Iowa (#13)—meanwhile, they have Rutgers down at #29. 

There are some wide splits in both the team and individual rankings; ESPN and PN also have different cutoffs for their star rankings. Here is Michigan's 2020 class:

Player ESPN Prospects Nation
Cameron Williams 5*, 97, #4 post, #35 overall 4*, #15 forward, #67 overall
Meghan Fiso 3*, 90, #29 guard 4*, #8 guard, #40 overall
Whitney Sollom 3*, 90, #23 forward 4*, #18 forward, #77 overall
Elise Stuck 3*, 90, #10 wing 4*, NR wing

Depending on where you look, 6'2" Chicago forward Cameron Williams or 5'10" Seattle guard Meghan Fiso is the top player in the class. ESPN appears to have devoted all their high school scouting resources to women's hoops (not a complaint!), as they have scouting reports for every commit, including the two in-staters—Whitney Sollom is from Howell and Elise Stuck hails from Charlevoix.

This is one of five(!!!) in-person evaluations they have of Williams:

USJN-April 2019: Skilled interior performer attacks from the high post, finishes plays in traffic; utilizes either hand to deliver in traffic; battles on the glass, initiates the fast break, superb in transition; quick footwork, versatile defender; superb front court prospect in the class of 2020. (Olson)

While Michigan is pretty loaded up front, she sounds like likely a day-one contributor. The same goes for Fiso, who fits the way KBA likes to occasionally push tempo:

October 2018: Versatile back court prospect with a scorer's mentality; elevates with soft touch in mid-range game to the arc; handles and distributes in transition game; executes in half-court game. (Olson)

Nike Nationals-July 20108: Agile combo-guard manufactures shots to the arc; handles in uptempo game, dishes in transition; knocks down jumpers to the arc; delivers in system setting. (Olson)

Sollom also sounds promising, though again, Michigan is pretty loaded up front for next season:

Under Armour Nationals-July 2019: Agile face up-4 attacks from the perimeter, mismatch creator in the front court; catches in traffic, attacks the glass; face up game extends to the arc; versatile defender. (Olson)

January 2019: Agile faceup-4 prospect breaks down defenders, attacks the basket and finishes plays in traffic; quick, active in the paint, rebounds and handles in transition game; skilled front-court performer. (Olson)

Stuck sounds a bit like Nolan:

The National Championship-July 2018: Agile perimeter prospect attacks in uptempo and finishes plays in transition game; mismatch creator, delivers in mid-range game; manufactures shots, weaves through the defense; active on the glass; skilled, competes on both ends of the floor. (Olson)

That's a strong four-player class that covers the positional spectrum.

2020-21 Outlook

Nazilla returns to terrorize the villagers [Scott]

Consider this somewhat of a blind stab at a depth chart. I'll be the first to admit my depth of knowledge of the women's team isn't on par with what I know about the men's program. Feedback is very welcome.

PG SG SF PF C
A. Dilk M. Nolan A. Johnson N. Hillmon H. Brown
M. Fiso D. Rauch E. Stuck C. Williams I. Varejao
M. Sidor   P. Smeenge W. Sollom E. Kiser

There's a really nice combination of depth and talent across the board.

Dilk should continue to move towards the upper tier of point guards as she continues to cut down on turnovers, an area she improved as a sophomore with plenty of room still to get better. Sophomore Michelle Sidor is a former four-star recruit who can play the point. Fiso may be able to fill that role right away as a change-of-pace lead guard off the bench.

Nolan, Sidor, and Danielle Rauch all saw upticks in minutes after Robbins went down. Nolan, in particular, acquitted herself well, doing all the little things and breaking out as a secondary scoring option late in the season, amassing all three of her double-digit scoring outputs in the season's final five games.

Amy Dilk's continued improvement is paramount for reaching the next level [Marc-Gregor Campredon]

Johnson provides steady scoring and defense on the wing. While I have Stuck as the backup at the three, there's some flexibility with the bench players at the two, and KBA could also go to some big lineups with three forwards.

There's good reason to do so with all the talent up front. Hillmon is a star, a double-double machine and impressively agile defender. Hailey Brown is an experienced stretch big who can protect the rim. Sophomore Izabel Varejao showed a lot of potential as a rim protector, rebounder, and post scorer, and at 6'4" she has imposing size. Fellow sophomore Emily Kiser was a decent rotational player last year, while Williams and Sollom should immediately compete for minutes if they live up to their scouting reports.

This feels like the year Michigan starts to push towards the top of the Big Ten, though catching Maryland at the top is a difficult proposition for anyone, and traditional Big Ten WBB contender Ohio State is loading up for a run. Moving above the 8/9 line in NCAA Tournament seeding and at least threatening to advance past the second round feels like a reasonable expectation.

Comments

Frank Chuck

March 21st, 2020 at 9:01 AM ^

Overtaking Maryland* will be a challenge but I think next year's team** should be the one that allows Arico to seriously contend for her first Big Ten Championship.

* Brenda Frese and Maryland have dominated B1G women's basketball. Since 2014 -15 (first year Maryland joined Big Ten), Terrapins have won 5 of the last 6 regular season titles and 4 of the 6 conference tournaments. To her credit, she won a National Championship in 2006 so her resume is quite impressive.

**Assuming some degree of normalcy returns and (college) sports resume.

OkemosBlue

March 23rd, 2020 at 3:03 PM ^

 The wide variance means relatively little in the woman's game because they can barely scout it, even less than the men's.  ESPN's three 90 ratings mean almost certainly mean they didn't scout the players in any depth, perhaps not at all.  But it's clear Barnes-Arico has taken the program to the next step by recruiting a fair number of tall, athletic players.  Better three-point shooting and more ball-handlers would make this team a B10 contender.  Maddie Nolan, Rauch, and Sidor may provide it.  Perhaps others too.

matty blue

March 24th, 2020 at 8:25 AM ^

i know what you're saying, but the scouting of the women's game is better than you'd expect, certainly at the level that michigan is recruiting.  literally everyone in the top 100-type recruiting lists (and quite a ways beyond) has scouting blurbs similar to those quoted here, usually from multiple sources, and as far as i can tell they're pretty accurate in terms of what a player can and can't do.

i'd probably rate the level of recruiting near where men's recruiting was a decade or so ago - not perfect, but very good when we're looking at the higher levels.