Patrick Barron, the Milk Way Galaxy [Patrick Barron, wsg the Milky Way Galaxy]

Stargazing: December 2020 Comment Count

Seth December 22nd, 2020 at 10:46 AM

It's time for our quarterly review of relevant recruiting rankings. Why? Because big moves can mean as much as where they're ranked. Ratings are on a curved 5-star scale that averages all available data. Remember that players will tick downwards as a class progresses so dropping from 150th to 158th in a three-month period is nothing. Further explanation of all this here. Updated roster data are here.

Interactive chart?

Interactive chart! If you want to switch to defense there's a button under the position labels. Mouse over, click around, have fun. It's best on a desktop.

[After THE JUMP: Data that haven't changed since September. Honestly, you can just look at the chart more.]

CLASS OF 2021

QB J.J. McCarthy (IMG via IL)

  March 2020-> June 2020-> Sept 2020-> Dec 2020
Rivals 6.0 (#5 PRO), #31 OVR (4.67*) 6.0 (#5 PRO), #33 OVR (4.67*) 6.0 (#5 PRO), #30 OVR (4.67*) 6.0 (#4 PRO), #41 OVR (4.70*)
ESPN 88 (#2 DUAL), #24 OVR (4.80*) 88 (#2 DUAL), #24 OVR (4.81*) 88 (#2 DUAL), #23 OVR (4.81*) 88 (#2 DUAL), #23 OVR (4.81*)
247Sports 95 (#3 PRO), #28 OVR (4.69*) 95 (#3 PRO), #26 OVR (4.69*) 95 (#3 PRO), #33 OVR (4.67*) 95 (#3 PRO), #35 OVR (4.67*)
Composite 0.9898 (#2 PRO), #15 OVR (4.90*) 0.9898 (#2 PRO), #15 OVR (4.90*) 0.9893 (#2 PRO), #16 OVR (4.89*) 0.9877 (#2 PRO), #22 OVR (4.88*)
Avg Stars 4.77 4.77 4.76 4.76

SUMMARY: No change.

McCarthy has been the same guy for the length of his recruitment, dropping a few spots on the overall Rivals board (but moving up the Pro ranks because someone got requalified as a Dual-Threat). This is what steady looks like. For what it's worth he was #11 overall to Rivals, #19 overall to 247, and not yet rated on ESPN a year ago.

RB Donovan Edwards (MI)

  March 2020-> June 2020-> Sept 2020-> Dec 2020
Rivals 5.9 (#2 RB), #59 OVR (4.70*) 5.9 (#2 RB), #61 OVR (4.70*) 5.9 (#2 RB), #65 OVR (4.69*) 5.9 (#3 RB), #74 OVR (4.65*)
ESPN 86 (#4 RB), #67 OVR (4.67*) 86 (#4 RB), #67 OVR (4.67*) 86 (#4 RB), #66 OVR (4.67*) 86 (#4 RB), #66 OVR (4.67*)
247Sports 95 (#2 RB), #23 OVR (4.70*) 95 (#2 RB), #22 OVR (4.70*) 95 (#2 RB), #24 OVR (4.69*) 95 (#2 RB), #29 OVR (4.68*)
Composite 0.982 (#3 RB), #38 OVR (4.82*) 0.9818 (#3 RB), #37 OVR (4.82*) 0.9810 (#3 RB), #37 OVR (4.81*) 0.9793 (#4 RB), #44 OVR (4.79*)
Avg Stars 4.72 4.72 4.72 4.70

SUMMARY: No change.

Edwards too stayed virtually in the same spot throughout the year's evaluations, drifting down slightly as the sites shot a few guys into the top-50.

RB commit Tavierre Dunlap

  March 2020-> June 2020-> Sept 2020-> Dec 2020
Rivals 5.7 (#23 RB), #44 TX (3.89*) 5.7 (#24 RB), #47 TX (3.87*) 5.7 (#27 RB), #51 TX (3.83*) 5.7 (#29 RB), #75 TX (3.76*)
ESPN 78 (#37 RB), #106 Midlands (3.70*) 78 (#35 RB), #100 Midlands (3.72*) 78 (#37 RB), #110 Midlands (3.69*) 78 (#37 RB), #116 Midlands (3.69*)
247Sports 90 (#20 RB), #299 OVR (4.01*) 90 (#18 RB), #44 CA (3.96*) 91 (#14 RB), #220 OVR (4.13*) 91 (#15 RB), #238 OVR (4.11*)
Composite 0.8889 (#25 RB), #359 OVR (3.89*) 0.8843 (#26 RB), #394 OVR (3.84*) 0.8883 (#22 RB), #374 OVR (3.88*) 0.8859 (#19 RB), #405 OVR (3.86*)
Avg Stars 3.87 3.85 3.89 3.85

SUMMARY: Dunlap was a 4-star who became a higher 4-star over the summer to 247, and a 3-star who remained such to Rivals, dropping 24 spots in the Texas rankings in their final evaluations.

Dunlap's numbers came down a bit from his dizzying 10.3 YPC/20 TD junior year, but he still had over 100 yards in eight of Del Valle's nine games this season. His trip through those in-state rankings on Rivals is wild:

image

About a quarter of that drop can be explained by Rivals shooting other guys up, but most of this was their opinion on Dunlap. ESPN never really reevaluated him over the cycle. It'll be interesting to see if 247, the outlier, is right about this one.

WR commit Xavier Worthy (CA)

  March 2020-> June 2020-> Sept 2020-> Dec 2020
Rivals 5.6 (NR WR), #NR CA (3.60*) 5.6 (NR WR), #47 CA (3.69*) 5.9 (#10 WR), #57 OVR (4.61*) 5.9 (#11 WR), #65 OVR (4.59*)
ESPN 84 (#22 WR), #125 OVR (4.47*) 84 (#22 WR), #125 OVR (4.47*) 84 (#22 WR), #124 OVR (4.47*) 84 (#22 WR), #124 OVR (4.47*)
247Sports 93 (#24 WR), #147 OVR (4.34*) 93 (#24 WR), #141 OVR (4.35*) 93 (#11 WR), #94 OVR (4.44*) 93 (#13 WR), #98 OVR (4.44*)
Composite 0.9185 (#39 WR), #208 OVR (4.19*) 0.9193 (#40 WR), #209 OVR (4.19*) 0.9662 (#11 WR), #71 OVR (4.66*) 0.9648 (#12 WR), #76 OVR (4.65*)
Avg Stars 4.15 4.18 4.55 4.54

SUMMARY: Rivals finally came around last summer around the same time 247 acquiesced to a ratings bump.

This is the guy we thought should have been a five-star, and we were astounded at where Rivals had him that late in the game. He then wound up ranked higher overall on Rivals, as the second bump from 247 didn't arrive before signing day. There's still time.

WR commit Cristian Dixon (CA)

  March 2020-> June 2020-> Sept 2020-> Dec 2020
Rivals 5.8 (#32 WR), #175 OVR (4.20*) 5.8 (#32 WR), #175 OVR (4.20*) 5.8 (#32 WR), #186 OVR (4.19*) 5.8 (#35 WR), #201 OVR (4.16*)
ESPN 84 (#26 WR), #140 OVR (4.42*) 84 (#26 WR), #143 OVR (4.41*) 84 (#26 WR), #142 OVR (4.41*) 84 (#25 WR), #140 OVR (4.42*)
247Sports 93 (#46 WR), #30 CA (4.14*) 87 (#96 WR), #59 CA (3.66*) 87 (#95 WR), #60 CA (3.66*) 87 (#105 WR), #60 CA (3.65*)
Composite 0.9289 (#33 WR), #178 OVR (4.29*) 0.9175 (#38 WR), #210 OVR (4.18*) 0.9160 (#37 WR), #210 OVR (4.16*) 0.9144 (#38 WR), #221 OVR (4.14*)
Avg Stars 4.26 4.11 4.11 4.09

SUMMARY: A solid top-200 guy who was dropped to the middle 3-stars by 247 last spring.

Dixon struggled to get passes in his junior season after transferring to a loaded program with two other 4-star prospects, and 247 took that as a sign to dump him into 3-star range. The other sites stood firm. His senior season didn't happen so the information here is scarce.

WR decommit Markus Allen (OH), committed to Wisconsin

  March 2020-> June 2020-> Sept 2020-> Dec 2020
Rivals 5.7 (#NR WR), #NR OH (3.80*) 5.7 (#76 WR), #18 OH (3.78*) 5.8 (#44 WR), #10 OH (4.09*) 5.8 (#43 WR), #242 OVR (4.09*)
ESPN 78 (#86 WR), #60 MW (3.76*) 78 (#86 WR), #60 MW (3.76*) 78 (#92 WR), #64 MW (3.74*) 78 (#95 WR), #70 MW (3.73*)
247Sports 86 (#117 WR), #20 OH (3.65*) 86 (#118 WR), #21 OH (3.64*) 86 (#118 WR), #25 OH (3.63*) 89 (#54 WR), #15 OH (3.90*)
Composite 0.8709 (#83 WR), #507 OVR (3.71*) 0.8709 (#88 WR), #533 OVR (3.71*) 0.8783 (#68 WR), #454 OVR (3.78*) 0.8894 (#61 WR), #364 OVR (3.89*)
Avg Stars 3.73 3.72 3.81 3.90

SUMMARY: Rivals and then 247 made him a 4-star.

I included Allen, who signed with Wisconsin, because his pattern did not fit that of the kind of guy who gets squeezed out of a class by better prospects, though that's apparently what happened when East Lansing's Andrel Anthony chose Michigan. Allen was shortly after named a 4-star to Rivals, and recently jumped to the lowest 4-star rung on 247.

WR commit Andrel Anthony (MI)

  March 2020-> June 2020-> Sept 2020-> Dec 2020
Rivals 5.7 (#71 WR), #15 MI (3.69*) 5.7 (#81 WR), #15 MI (3.67*) 5.7 (#80 WR), #16 MI (3.66*) 5.7 (#77 WR), #16 MI (3.67*)
ESPN 77 (#101 WR), #75 MW (3.60*) 77 (#102 WR), #76 MW (3.60*) 77 (#111 WR), #81 MW (3.58*) 77 (#115 WR), #86 MW (3.57*)
247Sports 87 (#99 WR), #12 MI (3.66*) 87 (#100 WR), #12 MI (3.66*) 87 (#102 WR), #13 MI (3.65*) 87 (#78 WR), #13 MI (3.68*)
Composite 0.8721 (#82 WR), #495 OVR (3.72*) 0.8721 (#87 WR), #519 OVR (3.72*) 0.8721 (#87 WR), #544 OVR (3.72*) 0.8755 (#81 WR), #523 OVR (3.76*)
Avg Stars 3.67 3.66 3.65 3.67

SUMMARY: Started the cycle ranked a high 3-star and had a slight rise late.

The jump up the receiver boards from Rivals and 247 recently is interesting, even if neither came with a move into 4-star territory. Those slight moves have to be considered against the fact that a guy ranked in the 500s in the composite should be dropping about 70 spots as that many more guys got evaluated.

TE commit Louis Hansen (MA)

  March 2020-> June 2020-> Sept 2020-> Dec 2020
Rivals 5.9 (#4 TE), #66 OVR (4.54*) 5.9 (#4 TE), #68 OVR (4.54*) 5.9 (#4 TE), #70 OVR (4.53*) 5.9 (#5 TE), #82 OVR (4.49*)
ESPN 77 (#18 TE-Y), #83 East (3.54*) 77 (#20 TE-Y), #84 East (3.54*) 77 (#23 TE-Y), #85 East (3.56*) 77 (#24 TE-Y), #89 East (3.53*)
247Sports 88 (#15 TE), #4 MA (3.73*) 88 (#17 TE), #3 MA (3.74*) 88 (#21 TE), #3 MA (3.71*) 88 (#26 TE), #3 MA (3.70*)
Composite 0.9075 (#10 TE), #251 OVR (4.08*) 0.9073 (#10 TE), #256 OVR (4.07*) 0.9070 (#12 TE), #254 OVR (4.07*) 0.9054 (#11 TE), #273 OVR (4.05*)
Avg Stars 3.97 3.97 3.97 3.94

SUMMARY: No change.

Weirdly for a guy with such a wide disparity in his rankings, nobody changed their minds over the cycle, probably because there was no season to change one's mind over. Rivals is the one banking on this program's record with tight ends out of New England. 247 is hedging by putting Hansen near but just under their 4-star line. ESPN's rating is significantly lower than the others, but that's not an evaluation so much as a lack of one. Weird that the Connecticut-based company can't bother to scout Boston.

C/G commit Raheem Anderson (MI)

  March 2020-> June 2020-> Sept 2020-> Dec 2020
Rivals 5.8 (#2 OC), #149 OVR (4.30*) 5.8 (#2 OC), #149 OVR (4.30*) 5.8 (#2 OC), #155 OVR (4.29*) 5.8 (#2 OC), #166 OVR (4.27*)
ESPN 82 (#3 OC), #238 OVR (4.21*) 82 (#3 OC), #238 OVR (4.21*) 82 (#3 OC), #237 OVR (4.21*) 82 (#3 OC), #242 OVR (4.21*)
247Sports 89 (#3 OC), #10 MI (3.93*) 89 (#3 OC), #10 MI (3.93*) 89 (#4 OC), #10 MI (3.87*) 90 (#4 OC), #11 MI (3.91*)
Composite 0.9184 (#3 OC), #209 OVR (4.18*) 0.9171 (#3 OC), #212 OVR (4.17*) 0.9163 (#2 OC), #208 OVR (4.16*) 0.9177 (#3 OC), #210 OVR (4.18*)
Avg Stars 4.16 4.15 4.13 4.14

SUMMARY: No change except a rating bump from 247.

The rating bump is interesting because you would expect a guy as well-scouted as Anderson—he was the starting center all four years at Cass Tech—to be fairly set. He was a very early 5-star because people knew about him that long ago, but once he settled into a top-200ish spot they left him there. 247 did not put Anderson in their top-247, but he might have been really close. I think they roll those ratings down over the course of the cycle, so that 90 really means he held onto his spot as other guys got evaluated.

C/G commit Greg Crippen (IMG via MA)

  March 2020-> June 2020-> Sept 2020-> Dec 2020
Rivals 5.9 (#5 OG), #136 OVR (4.47*) 5.9 (#7 OG), #136 OVR (4.43*) 5.9 (#6 OG), #145 OVR (4.44*) 5.9 (#8 OG), #163 OVR (4.37*)
ESPN 80 (#15 OG), #297 OVR (4.01*) 80 (#15 OG), #297 OVR (4.00*) 80 (#15 OG), #295 OVR (4.01*) 80 (#15 OG), #297 OVR (4.00*)
247Sports 88 (#6 OC), #73 FL (3.76*) 88 (#6 OC), #72 FL (3.76*) 88 (#6 OC), #69 FL (3.77*) 88 (#7 OC), #77 FL (3.74*)
Composite 0.9098 (#4 OC), #243 OVR (4.10*) 0.9089 (#4 OC), #247 OVR (4.09*) 0.9077 (#4 OC), #252 OVR (4.08*) 0.9053 (#6 OC), #275 OVR (4.05*)
Avg Stars 4.08 4.07 4.07 4.04

SUMMARY: No change.

Here's another guy who's been around so long nobody's changing their views on him. The view of 247 has been dimmer all along; Rivals might be slightly dinging him with the slide out of the top-150, but when you look at who they bumped up, e.g. DE/OLB Dallas Turner, it's probably just a matter of Rivals cleaning up some badly underrated guys, IE they haven't changed their mind about who Crippen is.

G target Drew Kendall (MA), committed to Boston College

  March 2020-> June 2020-> Sept 2020-> Dec 2020
Rivals 5.9 (#3 OG), #63 OVR (4.60*) 5.9 (#4 OG), #65 OVR (4.58*) 5.9 (#4 OG), #67 OVR (4.58*) 5.9 (#5 OG), #76 OVR (4.54*)
ESPN 81 (#13 OG), #257 OVR (4.08*) 81 (#13 OG), #257 OVR (4.08*) 81 (#13 OG), #256 OVR (4.09*) 81 (#13 OG), #263 OVR (4.08*)
247Sports 94 (#5 OG), #78 OVR (4.51*) 94 (#5 OG), #81 OVR (4.51*) 93 (#12 OG), #153 OVR (4.34*) 93 (#11 OG), #158 OVR (4.31*)
Composite 0.9529 (#5 OG), #110 OVR (4.53*) 0.9522 (#6 OG), #106 OVR (4.52*) 0.9423 (#9 OG), #130 OVR (4.42*) 0.9397 (#8 OG), #131 OVR (4.40*)
Avg Stars 4.43 4.42 4.36 4.33

SUMMARY: Slight drop last fall.

This was a weird recruitment that Michigan fell out of when Kendall looked at a depth chart and COVID locked that depth chart's eligibility. The other thing of note was 247 deciding that Kendall couldn't put on enough weight to really be a top-100 guy. Rivals stood firm, and ESPN kept Kendall low because New England.

OT commit Giovanni El-Hadi (MI)

  March 2020-> June 2020-> Sept 2020-> Dec 2020
Rivals 5.9 (#8 OT), #49 OVR (4.63*) 5.9 (#9 OT), #51 OVR (4.62*) 5.9 (#10 OT), #54 OVR (4.59*) 5.9 (#13 OT), #90 OVR (4.49*)
ESPN 84 (#18 OT), #137 OVR (4.38*) 84 (#18 OT), #137 OVR (4.39*) 84 (#18 OT), #136 OVR (4.33*) 84 (#18 OT), #134 OVR (4.38*)
247Sports 94 (#15 OT), #85 OVR (4.51*) 94 (#15 OT), #87 OVR (4.50*) 94 (#16 OT), #87 OVR (4.50*) 94 (#13 OT), #86 OVR (4.51*)
Composite 0.9672 (#9 OT), #66 OVR (4.67*) 0.9666 (#11 OT), #67 OVR (4.67*) 0.9662 (#11 OT), #70 OVR (4.66*) 0.9619 (#12 OT), #85 OVR (4.62*)
Avg Stars 4.55 4.54 4.52 4.50

SUMMARY: No change.

The weird thing about El-Hadi is that he popped up into the various sites' top-50 -100 or -150 around the time he committed to Michigan, and more or less held on. The drop in OT rankings to Rivals is so small as to be virtually meaningless. This is NOT SUPPOSED TO HAPPEN with offensive tackle recruits. Normally these guys jump into initial rankings because they're huge early, and then drop 200+ spots (which is never enough) over the course of the year because they were just guys who got huge early. Think Alex Mitchell, who was a 5-star tackle prospect when they first came out with his class's rankings, and was still a solid 4-star on signing day. That is not El-Hadi, who popped for his athleticism. I don't know how to interpret that except maybe the sites are getting better at identifying who's a Jalen Mayfield.

OT commit Tristan Bounds (MA)

  March 2020-> June 2020-> Sept 2020-> Dec 2020
Rivals 5.5 (#NR OT), #5 CT (3.50*) 5.5 (#NR OT), #5 CT (3.50*) 5.8 (#28 OT), #2 CT (4.00*) 5.8 (#26 OT), #2 CT (4.01*)
ESPN 78 (#53 OT), #76 East (3.69*) 78 (#51 OT), #72 East (3.70*) 78 (#53 OT), #72 East (3.70*) 78 (#59 OT), #74 East (3.68*)
247Sports 88 (#37 OT), #3 CT (3.77*) 88 (#39 OT), #2 CT (3.81*) 88 (#46 OT), #2 CT (3.79*) 88 (#44 OT), #2 CT (3.80*)
Composite 0.8567 (#59 OT), #650 OVR (3.57*) 0.8628 (#56 OT), #662 OVR (3.63*) 0.8850 (#33 OT), #400 OVR (3.85*) 0.8850 (#36 OT), #419 OVR (3.85*)
Avg Stars 3.63 3.66 3.83 3.84

SUMMARY: A generic 3-star bumped to a high 3-star after committing to Michigan.

The interesting thing about Bounds isn't that he was an unknwon to Rivals until they slapped a 4-star on him in their summer evaluation period. It's that he's a northeast prospect who moved UP to ESPN. Granted it was merely two spots up the OT rankings and he would give back those and six more. But you don't normally see ESPN say "Actually I like this guy more now" about a player in their backyard.

DT target Rayshaun Benny (MI)

  March 2020-> June 2020-> Sept 2020-> Dec 2020
Rivals 5.9 (#14 OT), #83 OVR (4.48*) 5.9 (#15 OT), #86 OVR (4.47*) 5.9 (#16 OT), #90 OVR (4.45*) 5.9 (#14 OT), #97 OVR (4.47*)
ESPN 79 (#36 OT), #41 MW (3.83*) 79 (#36 OT), #40 MW (3.84*) 79 (#36 OT), #43 MW (3.83*) 80 (#19 DT), #30 MW (4.03*)
247Sports 91 (#21 OT), #192 OVR (4.16*) 91 (#21 OT), #198 OVR (4.15*) 91 (#21 OT), #196 OVR (4.15*) 91 (#15 DT), #214 OVR (4.14*)
Composite 0.9239 (#20 OT), #191 OVR (4.24*) 0.9227 (#20 OT), #194 OVR (4.23*) 0.9224 (#19 OT), #186 OVR (4.22*) 0.9211 (#16 OT), #194 OVR (4.21*)
Avg Stars 4.18 4.17 4.16 4.21

SUMMARY: Benny got a bump into 4-star status on ESPN and was finally moved to DT on ESPN and 247; he remains ranked as an offensive tackle on Rivals.

The weird move up the composite rankings over the summer was actually out of a slight bump on 247 at the time, a bump that was nearly imperceptible because it came at the same time they added some OTs to the rankings. His commitment to Michigan State, which appears to have been rather fluid, probably precipitated the rate ESPN reevaluation. Benny is Michigan's best shot to add an impact player to this class.

DT target George Rooks (NJ)

  March 2020-> June 2020-> Sept 2020-> Dec 2020
Rivals 5.9 (#8 SDE), #123 OVR (4.45*) 5.9 (#8 SDE), #123 OVR (4.45*) 5.9 (#10 SDE), #129 OVR (4.41*) 5.8 (#13 SDE), #225 OVR (4.16*)
ESPN 83 (#22 DE), #207 OVR (4.21*) 83 (#22 DE), #207 OVR (4.21*) 83 (#22 DE), #206 OVR (4.22*) 83 (#22 DE), #208 OVR (4.21*)
247Sports 88 (#21 DT), #6 NJ (3.93*) 88 (#23 DT), #6 NJ (3.91*) 88 (#23 DT), #5 NJ (3.94*) 88 (#28 DT), #6 NJ (3.88*)
Composite 0.9207 (#12 DT), #202 OVR (4.21*) 0.9207 (#14 DT), #202 OVR (4.21*) 0.9199 (#14 DT), #196 OVR (4.20*) 0.9069 (#18 DT), #259 OVR (4.07*)
Avg Stars 4.20 4.19 4.19 4.08

SUMMARY: Rooks slid down the Rivals rankings after holding steady the entire cycle.

Michigan probably is out for this one but I found the recent shift interesting. Rivals had Rooks in their Top 125 forever while 247, the only site to rate him as a tackle, was putting him high 3-star range. He had a slight slip there too but Rivals dropped him nearly 100 spots recently. They're still high on him but no longer an outlier.

DT commit Dominick Giudice (NJ)

  March 2020-> June 2020-> Sept 2020-> Dec 2020
Rivals 5.4 (NR SDE), NR NJ (3.20*) 5.4 (NR SDE), NR NJ (3.20*) 5.4 (NR SDE), NR NJ (3.20*) 5.4 (NR SDE), NR NJ (3.20*)
ESPN 72 (#115 DE), #150 East (3.36*) 72 (#122 DE), #159 East (3.33*) 72 (#163 DE), #199 East (3.19*) 72 (#189 DE), #222 East (3.10*)
247Sports 80 (#82 WDE), #43 NJ (3.03*) 80 (#95 WDE), #43 NJ (3.01*) 80 (#107 WDE), #45 NJ (2.99*) 80 (#106 WDE), #45 NJ (2.98*)
Composite 0.8161 (#71 WDE), #1400 OVR (3.16*) 0.816 (#83 WDE), #1509 OVR (3.16*) 0.8160 (#94 WDE), #1817 OVR (3.16*) 0.8160 (#94 WDE), #1833 OVR (3.16*)
Avg Stars 3.19 3.17 3.13 3.11

SUMMARY: Low-ranked recruit never interested sites.

Giudice is a major sleeper. Even after committing to Michigan no site decided he was more valuable than the modern equivalent of a 2-star. He had a lot of sacks as a junior so that was the moment. He also gained a bunch of weight and nobody took him up on that either. All the sites still have him at DE even though Michigan's told him he's an Anchor/3-Tech. At this level a drop of 100 spots as other guys get ranked isn't uncommon. Rivals never even ranked him.

DE decommit Quintin Somerville (AZ), UCLA signee

  March 2020-> June 2020-> Sept 2020-> Dec 2020
Rivals 5.8 (#5 WDE), #151 OVR (4.39*) 5.8 (#5 WDE), #151 OVR (4.39*) 5.8 (#7 WDE), #160 OVR (4.32*) 5.8 (#16 WDE), #5 AZ (4.06*)
ESPN 84 (#12 DE), #107 OVR (4.53*) 84 (#12 DE), #107 OVR (4.53*) 84 (#12 DE), #106 OVR (4.53*) 84 (#12 DE), #106 OVR (4.53*)
247Sports 93 (#9 SDE), #104 OVR (4.42*) 90 (#18 SDE), #4 AZ (4.01*) 90 (#19 SDE), #4 AZ (4.00*) 88 (#29 SDE), #10 AZ (3.72*)
Composite 0.9557 (#9 SDE), #102 OVR (4.56*) 0.9348 (#14 SDE), #152 OVR (4.35*) 0.9336 (#14 SDE), #151 OVR (4.34*) 0.9149 (#16 SDE), #219 OVR (4.15*)
Avg Stars 4.47 4.32 4.30 4.12

SUMMARY: Typical early 5-star who drops as the rest of his class catches up, probably not far enough.

Somerville definitely wasn't processed, but he was 100% a Shawn Nua guy and with Nua's job not likely to continue Somerville flipped to UCLA. He'll be a good one to point to as an example of how the sites don't like to drop a guy they were initially high on. 247 slowly plinked him into 3-star range and Rivals dropped him out of their top 250 after hanging on for awhile.

DE commit Kechaun Bennett (CT)

  March 2020-> June 2020-> Sept 2020-> Dec 2020
Rivals 5.8 (#13 WDE), #1 CT (4.15*) 5.8 (#12 WDE), #1 CT (4.16*) 5.8 (#13 WDE), #1 CT (4.15*) 5.8 (#13 WDE), #1 CT (4.15*)
ESPN 80 (#39 DE), #49 East (3.97*) 80 (#39 DE), #50 East (3.97*) 80 (#41 DE), #48 East (3.97*) 80 (#40 DE), #48 East (3.97*)
247Sports 89 (#25 SDE), #1 CT (3.93*) 89 (#26 SDE), #1 CT (3.92*) 89 (#27 SDE), #1 CT (3.92*) 89 (#24 SDE), #1 CT (3.93*)
Composite 0.8932 (#21 SDE), #324 OVR (3.93*) 0.8925 (#21 SDE), #329 OVR (3.93*) 0.8925 (#22 SDE), #333 OVR (3.93*) 0.8925 (#22 SDE), #349 OVR (3.93*)
Avg Stars 3.99 3.99 3.99 3.99

SUMMARY: Held steady at just about 4 stars the whole way.

The SDE rankings on 247 are a bit misleading because they moved a few of them to defensive tackle. Still, everyone is pretty tight on where they see Bennett, with Rivals standing a bit higher because they see him as a rush end.

DE commit TJ Guy (MA)

  March 2020-> June 2020-> Sept 2020-> Dec 2020
Rivals 5.5 (NR SDE), #8 MA (3.36*) 5.5 (NR SDE), #9 MA (3.34*) 5.5 (NR SDE), #8 MA (3.36*) 5.5 (NR SDE), #7 MA (3.38*)
ESPN 76 (#86 DE), #106 East (3.43*) 76 (#88 DE), #109 East (3.42*) 76 (#103 DE), #115 East (3.41*) 76 (#105 DE), #119 East (3.40*)
247Sports 87 (#31 WDE), #5 MA (3.59*) 87 (#33 WDE), #5 MA (3.59*) 87 (#33 WDE), #5 MA (3.59*) 87 (#35 WDE), #5 MA (3.58*)
Composite 0.8553 (#44 WDE), #784 OVR (3.55*) 0.8552 (#49 WDE), #817 OVR (3.55*) 0.8552 (#47 WDE), #863 OVR (3.55*) 0.8552 (#50 WDE), #927 OVR (3.55*)
Avg Stars 3.48 3.48 3.48 3.48

SUMMARY: Low-rated recruit did not change minds.

Guy, like Giudice, did not climb or get ranked by Rivals among his position group. This was despite the Rivals recruiting guy for Michigan, EJ Holland, swearing up and down that Michigan's found another Kwity Paye, or possibly even a guy who can grow into a tackle. Nothing yet has changed in his evals, and as low as he's ranked there's going to be a good 50 new players who pop above him.

(NOTE: I never got enough snapshots of LB decommit Branden Jennings to be worth including him)

Junior Colson

  March 2020-> June 2020-> Sept 2020-> Dec 2020
Rivals 5.9 (#4 OLB), #80 OVR (4.61*) 5.9 (#3 OLB), #83 OVR (4.64*) 5.9 (#2 OLB), #87 OVR (4.66*) 5.9 (#5 OLB), #94 OVR (4.58*)
ESPN 83 (#18 OLB), #84 OVR (4.31*) 83 (#18 OLB), #184 OVR (4.22*) 83 (#18 OLB), #183 OVR (4.22*) 84 (#16 OLB), #142 OVR (4.33*)
247Sports 92 (#13 OLB), #182 OVR (4.22*) 93 (#9 OLB), #158 OVR (4.31*) 93 (#8 OLB), #156 OVR (4.32*) 93 (#6 OLB), #100 OVR (4.43*)
Composite 0.9448 (#10 OLB), #126 OVR (4.45*) 0.9476 (#8 OLB), #116 OVR (4.48*) 0.9473 (#9 OLB), #123 OVR (4.47*) 0.9586 (#5 OLB), #95 OVR (4.59*)
Avg Stars 4.40 4.41 4.42 4.48

SUMMARY: Steady movement upwards at 247, a bit of up and down to the other two.

Here's a Southern recruit that ESPN paid attention to while ignoring the guys above. There was a drop of 100 spots last spring, which I thought might be attributable to the SEC schools cutting off their 5-star pursuit. ESPN popped him back up again recently, and I read that as a recruiting thing not a film thing, IE as soon as Michigan looked bad the SEC calls came in again. The slow rise up 247's OLB rankings was subtle enough to be missed if they didn't sneak him into their top-100 there at the end. Colson is a bit of a tweener and could start his career at Viper, and 247 is usually loathe to put those guys too high in their LB rankings because the pros don't use hybrids as much. But Colson's allaying fears by gaining weight—he's now around 225, which projects to a reasonably sized inside linebacker.

LB commit Jaydon Hood (FL)

  March 2020-> June 2020-> Sept 2020-> Dec 2020
Rivals 5.7 (#38 ATH), #72 FL (3.73*) 5.7 (#35 ATH), #70 FL (3.74*) 5.7 (#15 ATH), #56 FL (3.89*) 5.8 (#6 ATH), #223 OVR (4.29*)
ESPN 83 (#5 ILB), #191 OVR (4.31*) 83 (#5 ILB), #191 OVR (4.31*) 83 (#5 ILB), #190 OVR (4.29*) 83 (#5 ILB), #193 OVR (4.31*)
247Sports 88 (#17 ILB), #52 FL (3.83*) 88 (#16 ILB), #54 FL (3.83*) 88 (#19 ILB), #53 FL (3.81*) 88 (#21 ILB), #69 FL (3.77*)
Composite 0.8981 (#12 ILB), #292 OVR (3.98*) 0.8981 (#11 ILB), #298 OVR (3.98*) 0.8981 (#12 ILB), #300 OVR (3.98*) 0.9089 (#14 ILB), #246 OVR (4.09*)
Avg Stars 3.96 3.97 3.99 4.11

SUMMARY: Big riser this year on Rivals.

The biggest surprise of signing day was Hood signing before he visited. With Miami (YTM) coming hard, Hood felt very wobbly this year. While ESPN has remained very high on Hood, Rivals gave him two big bumps this year despite a rough transition year at his new school. 247 dropped him in their in-state rankings, so now there's a large disparity between them and the other two sites. Hood is a running back-sized LB so 247's tendency to favor pro projections might be at play here, but both Lorenz and Sam on recent MGo-collab podcasts made a point of mentioning Hood's struggles earlier this year. I deduce that they've had conversations with the 247 people about Hood and that getting benched earlier this year played into the evaluations. Meanwhile it's not hard to see Rivals chasing the Miami heat.

LB commit Tyler McLaurin (IL)

  March 2020-> June 2020-> Sept 2020-> Dec 2020
Rivals 5.7 (#27 OLB), #11 IL (3.79*) 5.7 (#30 OLB), #12 IL (3.77*) 5.7 (#30 OLB), #12 IL (3.77*) 5.7 (#38 OLB), #12 IL (3.74*)
ESPN 78 (#44 OLB), #54 MW (3.72*) 78 (#44 OLB), #55 MW (3.71*) 78 (#48 OLB), #58 MW (3.70*) 78 (#51 OLB), #53 MW (3.69*)
247Sports 88 (#37 OLB), #11 IL (3.76*) 88 (#37 OLB), #11 IL (3.76*) 88 (#35 OLB), #13 IL (3.75*) 88 (#36 OLB), #13 IL (3.75*)
Composite 0.8776 (#27 OLB), #426 OVR (3.78*) 0.8776 (#28 OLB), #443 OVR (3.78*) 0.8776 (#28 OLB), #465 OVR (3.78*) 0.8776 (#30 OLB), #493 OVR (3.78*)
Avg Stars 3.76 3.76 3.75 3.74

SUMMARY: No change.

The only interesting thing here is ESPN moved McLaurin up a few spots in their regional rankings. He's tough to project as a Wisconsin-style linebacker who could become anything from a McCray-like WLB to a Winovichian DE.

LB decommit Casey Phinney (MA), signed with Boston College

  March 2020-> June 2020-> Sept 2020-> Dec 2020
Rivals 5.5 (NR ILB), #7 MA (3.38*) 5.5 (NR ILB), #8 MA (3.36*) 5.5 (NR ILB), #7 MA (3.38*) 5.5 (NR ILB), #6 MA (3.41*)
ESPN 74 (#31 ILB), #141 East (3.29*) 74 (#32 ILB), #149 East (3.27*) 74 (#44 ILB), #171 East (3.22*) 74 (#50 ILB), #182 East (3.16*)
247Sports 85 (#30 ILB), #7 MA (3.49*) 85 (#31 ILB), #7 MA (3.49*) 85 (#35 ILB), #7 MA (3.47*) 85 (#39 ILB), #7 MA (3.46*)
Composite 0.8444 (#39 ILB), #1036 OVR (3.44*) 0.8444 (#41 ILB), #1078 OVR (3.44*) 0.8444 (#49 ILB), #1183 OVR (3.44*) 0.8444 (#54 ILB), #1253 OVR (3.44*)
Avg Stars 3.40 3.39 3.38 3.37

SUMMARY: No change.

I kept the data so might as well update it. I figured there might be a drop when he got dropped from Michigan's class and flipped to BC, but he's been basically ignored.

S target Daymon David (MD), signed with Oregon

  March 2020-> June 2020-> Sept 2020-> Dec 2020
Rivals no profile (n/a*) 5.4 (NR S), NR MD (2.50*) 5.8 (#22 S), #12 MD (3.95*) 5.8 (#27 S), #13 MD (3.91*)
ESPN no profile (n/a*) no profile (n/a*) no profile (n/a*) 82 (#12 S), #238 OVR (4.22*)
247Sports no profile (n/a*) 88 (#47 S), #19 MD (3.68*) 88 (#45 S), #17 MD (3.69*) 92 (#13 S), #204 OVR (4.20*)
Composite no profile (n/a*) 0.7909 (#NR S), #1161 OVR (2.91*) 0.8900 (#22 S), #346 OVR (3.90*) 0.9131 (#15 S), #232 OVR (4.13*)
Avg Stars n/a 3.03 3.85 4.11

SUMMARY: Huge leap up the rankings.

Just torturing myself here. Michigan was in on David and close to getting him until Oregon appeared out of nowhere. The sites barely knew he existed either but as soon as they saw him he rocketed up to 4-star status everywhere. It'll be interesting to compare his career to that of Quintin Somerville, who wound up in about the same range.

S commit Rod Moore (OH)

  March 2020-> June 2020-> Sept 2020-> Dec 2020
Rivals 5.7 (NR S), NR OH (3.80*) 5.7 (#22 S), #15 OH (3.90*) 5.7 (#31 S), #16 OH (3.83*) 5.6 (#50 S), #26 OH (3.63*)
ESPN 78 (#28 S), #49 MW (3.85*) 78 (#28 S), #49 MW (3.85*) 78 (#28 S), #52 MW (3.84*) 78 (#33 S), #56 MW (3.81*)
247Sports 89 (#21 S), #10 OH (3.98*) 89 (#29 S), #11 OH (3.92*) 89 (#28 S), #13 OH (3.90*) 90 (#26 S), #12 OH (3.98*)
Composite 0.8809 (#22 S), #388 OVR (3.81*) 0.8809 (#29 S), #408 OVR (3.81*) 0.8809 (#31 S), #429 OVR (3.81*) 0.8768 (#37 S), #499 OVR (3.77*)
Avg Stars 3.86 3.87 3.85 3.80

SUMMARY: A late evaluation that wound up with some significant disagreements.

You don't often see one site bumping a guy up while the other drops him unless the sites are coming together. But Rivals hates Moore, moving him out of their high 3* range into their middling pile. Meanwhile 247 gave him a 4th star. ESPN is splitting the difference and has been since they saw him the first time. Weird.

CB target Ceyair Wright (CA)

  March 2020-> June 2020-> Sept 2020-> Dec 2020
Rivals 5.9 (#5 ATH), #100 OVR (4.54*) 5.9 (#3 ATH), #100 OVR (4.58*) 5.9 (#6 ATH), #95 OVR (4.53*) 5.9 (#5 CB), #102 OVR (4.60*)
ESPN 84 (#8 CB), #109 OVR (4.57*) 84 (#8 CB), #109 OVR (4.57*) 84 (#7 CB), #108 OVR (4.59*) 84 (#6 CB), #108 OVR (4.60*)
247Sports 94 (#7 ATH), #67 OVR (4.54*) 94 (#8 ATH), #71 OVR (4.53*) 94 (#7 ATH), #69 OVR (4.53*) 94 (#7 ATH), #76 OVR (4.52*)
Composite 0.9633 (#7 ATH), #82 OVR (4.63*) 0.9654 (#5 ATH), #71 OVR (4.65*) 0.9663 (#5 ATH), #69 OVR (4.66*) 0.9645 (#6 ATH), #77 OVR (4.65*)
Avg Stars 4.57 4.58 4.58 4.59

SUMMARY: A near consensus.

There have been subtle movements with Ceyair because he's such a famous prospect—he is playing LeBron's son in the new Space Jam movie—and such a good one. Rivals finally switched him to CB, but 247 still lists him as an athlete for some reason. He's committing on January 2 and people seem to think USC leads and Notre Dame is #2. Michigan is probably third, has a couple of his friends on the team, has a weirdly deep history of winning battles with these top-150 California cornerbacks, and REALLY REALLY needs this.

CB commit Ja'Den McBurrows (FL)

  March 2020-> June 2020-> Sept 2020-> Dec 2020
Rivals 5.7 (#27 CB), #58 FL (3.85*) 5.7 (#30 CB), #66 FL (3.82*) 5.7 (#35 CB), #65 FL (3.78*) 5.7 (#36 CB), #68 FL (3.78*)
ESPN 76 (#62 CB), #310 SE (3.55*) 76 (#64 CB), #322 SE (3.54*) 76 (#75 CB), #383 SE (3.49*) 76 (#82 CB), #420 SE (3.46*)
247Sports 85 (#90 CB), #117 FL (3.53*) 86 (#62 CB), #89 FL (3.62*) 86 (#66 CB), #89 FL (3.61*) 88 (#36 CB), #62 FL (3.79*)
Composite 0.8633 (#46 CB), #628 OVR (3.63*) 0.8667 (#46 CB), #604 OVR (3.67*) 0.8667 (#51 CB), #633 OVR (3.67*) 0.8734 (#43 CB), #549 OVR (3.73*)
Avg Stars 3.64 3.66 3.64 3.69

SUMMARY: Upward mobility entirely coming from 247.

The guy our recruiting people and Miami (YTM)'s recruiting people think is underrated, it's hard to say McBurrows around any of these people without getting an earful about earnest Ohio State and Alabama interest. McBurrows isn't NFL-sized so it's doubly interesting that 247 is taking an increased liking to him, though they didn't let him near a 4th star. The other sites don't seem to think much of him, and have been sliding others ahead as they find them.

P commit Tommy Doman (MI)

  March 2020-> June 2020-> Sept 2020-> Dec 2020
Rivals 5.5 (#NR K), #NR MI (3.60*) 5.5 (#NR K), #NR MI (3.60*) 5.5 (#2 K), #NR MI (3.52*) 5.5 (#2 K), #NR MI (3.52*)
ESPN no rating (n/a*) no rating (n/a*) no rating (n/a*) 76 (#3 K), #116 MW (3.47*)
247Sports no rating (n/a*) 80 (#2 P), #64 MI (2.97*) 80 (#2 P), #64 MI (2.97*) 80 (#2 P), #66 MI (2.97*)
Composite no profile (n/a*) 0.8165 (#1 P), #1507 OVR (3.17*) 0.8165 (#2 P), #1811 OVR (3.17*) 0.8317 (#2 P), #1588 OVR (3.32*)
Avg Stars 3.60 3.25 3.22 3.32

SUMMARY: Is punter.

The shift in his composite is because ESPN ranked him. The sites' rankings for scholarship specialists are weird.

-----------------------------------

CLASS OF 2022

I've started tracking 54 targets in the 2022 cycle, but I won't report those until I have at least two data points. Here's the one guy on offense.

TE commit Marlin Klein (GA)

  March 2020-> June 2020-> Sept 2020-> Dec 2020
Rivals (no data) (no data) 5.7 (#40 WR), #34 GA (3.87*) 5.7 (#21 TE), #43 GA (3.74*)
ESPN (no data) (no data) (no rating) (no rating)
247Sports (no data) (no data) 88 (#18 TE) #32 GA (3.80*) 88 (#18 TE), #28 GA (3.82*)
Composite (no data) (no data) 0.8789 (#18 TE)#371 OVR (3.79*) 0.8789 (#20 TE), #404 OVR (3.79*)
Avg Stars (no data) (no data) 3.83 3.78

SUMMARY: Rivals moved Marlin to the tight end rankings and 247 ranked their Georgia prospects and 247 moved him up four spots in their Georgia rankings.

DT commit Alex VanSumeren (MI)

  March 2020-> June 2020-> Sept 2020-> Dec 2020
Rivals (no data) (no data) 5.8 (#9 DT), #173 OVR (4.33*) 5.8 (#10 DT), #182 OVR (4.31*)
ESPN (no data) (no data) 81 (#10 DT), #242 OVR (4.21*) 81 (#10 DT), #246 OVR (4.21*)
247Sports (no data) 90 (#21 ATH)#193 OVR (4.11*) 90 (#18 ATH)#232 OVR (4.07*) 90 (#16 ATH), #230 OVR (4.07*)
Composite (no data) (no data) 0.9192 (#18 ATH)#221 OVR (4.19*) 0.9177 (#16 ATH), #223 OVR (4.18*)
Avg Stars (no data) 4.11 4.20 4.19

SUMMARY: Commence solid 4-star cycle.

AVS got some big-time interest from Alabama and Georgia, and I think that's what prompted 247 to keep him in the top 247 when they added a bunch of guys to the class recently. They're the relative low-man (not by much) and also have him as an Athlete not a DT.

LB commit Tyler Martin (MA)

  March 2020-> June 2020-> Sept 2020-> Dec 2020
Rivals (no data) 6.0 (NR ILB), #100 OVR (4.60*) 5.9 (#3 ILB), #106 OVR (4.55*) 5.9 (#3 ILB), #115 OVR (4.54*)
ESPN (no data) (no data) 80 (#7 ILB), #290 OVR (4.11*) 80 (#6 ILB), #292 OVR (4.11*)
247Sports (no data) (no data) 85 (#24 ILB), NR OVR (3.55*) 85 (#23 ILB), #5 MA (3.56*)
Composite (no data) (no data) 0.9037 (#10 ILB), #272 OVR (4.04*) 0.9021 (#9 ILB), #278 OVR (4.02*)
Avg Stars (no data) 4.50 4.06 4.06

SUMMARY: Very early guy with an apparent ceiling.

Rivals was first with a profile on this guy, and EJ Holland seems to have a strong connection with Martin and family. They dropped him out of their high 4-star range already but he's still just outside their top-100. 247 and ESPN came in over the summer with their evals. While ESPN sees a solid 4-star, 247 is in Casey Phinney range with this one. They did move him up a spot in their ILB rankings while other guys got moved around, but there's a big discrepancy here and I wonder where it goes. I am sort of expecting a Somerville situation where Martin falls out of the top-250 before this time next year but is still a 4-star or near to it.

Comments

DoubleB

December 22nd, 2020 at 12:56 PM ^

Looks like more of the same problem:

Better offensive players who don't have a consistent scheme or plan to get the most out of them.

Worse defensive players who can't run the consistent scheme they do have.

 

GoingBlue

December 22nd, 2020 at 2:23 PM ^

Would love to see the star rating compared to college accomplishments, like All-Conference teams, all-american teams, all the awards. To see what positions Michigan has developed the best, recruited the best, the worst, or whatever the data shows. 

M-GO-Beek

December 23rd, 2020 at 9:24 AM ^

I agree. If Seth is ever starved for content, I would love to see the above request but also at this point, we have to have enough data to suggest one of the sites is better at ranking than the others or if there are specific position groups that sites are more trustworthy at.  I know one of them is projecting more to the NFL, but that doesn't mean their college record can't be looked at.