It's been about a month since this site last checked in on Michigan Softball, which came in early February, just before the start of the season. That was our season preview piece and in it I opined that much of what the team hopes to accomplish in 2022 hinges on what was going to happen in the early season non-conference portion of the schedule. We are now through the meat of that section of the schedule, so I felt that this week would be a good time to check in and see what's going on with the squad and how they fared in a Softball Roundup:

 

How Michigan Fared 

The Wolverines got the season started in Tampa and it was pretty disappointing. Though they did go 3-2, Michigan was unable to beat either of the good teams there, USF or Florida, putting up just one combined run in the two games. The USF game was sullied by a strange decision to start freshman Lauren Derkowski in the circle rather than one of Michigan's ace pitchers. Derkowski gave up three runs in the first and Michigan was never able to dig back in the game against superstar Georgina Corrick. 

In Clearwater, Michigan banked a couple quality wins against LSU and UCF, but were dismissed easily by Oklahoma State. The chance for a marquee win against FSU was again damaged by the decision to start Derkowski, who gave up an early run that ended up being crucial in a 2-1 loss. Things began to turn for the better once Michigan headed down to North Carolina, as they were able to split a two game set with a very good Duke team, and then pounded Northern Kentucky (x2), Elon, and UNC. The bats continued to heat up in Lexington, with Michigan slapping #10 Kentucky around in the first game, before dropping the second to the Wildcats as UK battered Meghan Beaubien. Michigan did beat Kent State and Drake, which concluded their early season non-conference tournament portion of the schedule. 

As the Wolverines head home for this weekend's series, they sit at 13-6 overall. In the four major softball polls, they are ranked between 15-19, a pretty consensus view of this team. It's a little below expectations, but because of reasons I will explain in the next section, there is reason to be more optimistic than that ranking, as the offense is rounding into shape and Michigan has the biggest asset any NCAA Softball team can have: an unbelievably dominant starting pitcher. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: SoftballBullets]

 

Kristina Burkhardt is the offensive MVP so far [JD Scott]

Takeaways from the Early Season 

- Kristina Bukrhart is a stud. I was a big fan of adding her out of the portal in the season preview and right now it looks like one of the biggest additions of the offseason for any team. The outfielder is currently hitting a scorching .484 with a 1.265 OPS (!) and though she doesn't have any homers, she has 13 doubles and a pair of triples in 19 games, plus six steals and only four strikeouts. Wowza. And it's worth remembering that this is the difficult part of Michigan's schedule when it comes to opposing pitching.

- Some nice signs from veteran players. I was hoping for some internal improvement, but I wasn't getting my hopes up too high. Luckily there are some very positive indicators from second, third, and fourth year hitters. Lauren Esman is off to a nice start when it comes to players I wanted to see more from. She's just a shade below a 1.000 OPS, with a couple homers and five doubles, and an OBP north of .400. Hannah Carson isn't getting on base enough, but when she is getting on, she's getting extra bases. 7 of Carson's 13 hits are of the extra base variety, including a team-leading three homers, and her OPS currently sits at a career-best .895.

The last stunning development is the breakout of Sierra Kersten. I was pretty harsh on Kersten in the season preview, but I noted that if she improves a lot at the plate, she should be in the lineup. Well, so far, it looks like she's improved a lot at the plate. Kersten has gone from Michigan's worst everyday bat last year to one of their more dangerous ones, with three homers and three doubles already. Strikeouts are still a bit of an issue, but if she swats three jacks every thirty at-bats, I will gladly take high strikeouts.

Lauren Derkowski has had her flashes so far [JD Scott]

- The freshmen are ok so far. Two freshmen have been regulars in the lineup, infielders Annabelle Widra and Ella McVey. They have both been... fine? Each sport batting averages above .300 and OPS clips above .700. Not meat of the order players, but both have shown enough speed and on-base ability to keep them in the lineup. Defense has been a bit shaky from Widra (3 errors), though I'm grading on a bit of a curve with freshmen. As for the arms, Lauren Derkowski has looked the most college-ready, even if she wasn't quite ready to handle elite, top five lineups. She's battling command issues but the 1.71 ERA through the tough part of the schedule is a decent starting point. Widra has also pitched a bit and looked good in those limited innings, while Emerson Aiken has been rough so far. 

- Michigan's offense has a chance to be quite good, if they can get the 2021 stars going. The last few seasons, the question for Michigan Softball has always revolved around their ability to hit against good pitching. While I don't think that has been totally settled yet, and the first two weekends were pretty rough, we're starting to see the bats heat up. As we noted in an earlier point, it has mostly come from surprising sources, and not who we thought it would. Lexie Blair and Taylor Bump, Michigan's two best returning hitters from last season, have both have been pretty disappointing so far. Lexie has been mediocre, .283 average and .729 OPS, far off from her .400 average and 1.000+ OPS of last season, while Bump has been dreadful, .175 and .640 OPS, looking frighteningly more like the hitter she was from 2018-20 and not the one she grew into last season. 

If Michigan wants to round into a truly good offense, they're going to need those hitters to come on line. But the rest of the team has shown encouraging signs, and the offense is improving. After scoring just 13 runs in the team's first six games (2.2 per game), they have scored 77 runs in their last thirteen games (5.9 per game). Quality of competition is roughly the same in those two samples, as the first six included a few good teams (Florida/OKST) and a few not as good ones (UMKC x2/Illinois St.), while the latter thirteen saw Michigan play ranked teams seven times in between mid-major opposition. This is good news. 

All of this is to say that if Michigan can get Lexie Blair back to the kind of hitter she's been in her career, and get Taylor Bump going again, this could be a pretty good offense. Burkhardt is a stud, you're getting power contributions from Esman and Carson, on-base ability from the two freshmen, and development from Kersten. Hitting with RISP is still a bit of an issue (encapsulated by their 1-0 win in eight innings over Drake last weekend), but I'm decently optimistic about this offense rounding into form and being potent. 

Michigan needs more out of Meghan Beaubien [JD Scott]

- Alex Storako is the ace and there's nobody close. This will partially bleed into my next point about Meghan Beaubien's struggles, but right now, this isn't a 1A/1B situation with Michigan's starting pitchers. Storako is the #1 and Michigan should be prepared to ride her hard when it's time to face Northwestern, or time for the NCAA Tournament. Storako made it through the toughest portion of the schedule with a 0.75 ERA, a 0.77 WHIP, and a 11.7 K/7 inning ratio (!). Stupid good. Opponents are hitting .138 off her and it was her performance in the circle that gave Michigan every single one of their non-conference top 25 victories, allowing 5 earned runs in 32.2 innings (1.07 ERA) against top 25 teams. We saw last season how one unstoppable arm could take unseeded JMU all the way to OKC (Oddici Alexander). As much as Hutch likes to have options, right now the path for Michigan to make it to the WCWS involves Storako annihilating teams and the offense doing enough to get there. 

- On the flip side, this has been very disappointing from Meghan Beaubien. I questioned in the season preview whether there was a higher level of play that Beaubien could reach in her fifth year, but I didn't think this level of regression from her was feasible. Beaubien's 1.15 WHIP is not bad, but it's also the highest of her career, and the more concerning part is the ERA, which sits at 3.23. For context, she's never had a season with an ERA higher than 2.00. Her numbers will inevitably improve because the schedule is about to get a lot easier, but the concerning part is that Beaubien was once a reliable arm who could shut down great offenses. This year she's been touched up by nearly every good team she's faced.

Her one inning in relief of Storako against Kentucky was the lone highlight in the quality competition matchups, because in totality Beaubien has been lit up for 13 ER in 15 IP against top 25 teams (6.07 ERA). Compare that to Storako's sparkling ERA against those same teams and you get why I deemed Storako as Michigan's undisputed ace. You can ride one dominant pitcher a long way, but it would do wonders for Michigan if they can get MB to round back into form during B1G play. 

 

The Wildcats are very good [JD Scott]

Where is Michigan at in achieving its goals?

In the season preview, I noted that Michigan got eight games against preseason top 25 teams and wanted to go 4-4 in those games. As it turns out, the number of top 25 games they played was actually nine, with UCF jumping into the rankings by the time Michigan saw them. In those nine games, Michigan went 4-5, beating UCF/LSU/Duke/Kentucky while losing to Duke/Kentucky + the three top five teams. I said they wanted to win one of those top five games, and Michigan was unable to do so. I also said they wanted to be near-perfect in the non-top 25 games and Michigan did do that, only losing to USF. So in total, it was not a disastrous non-conference, but also not quite what I was hoping for. Still, they did enough to give them a shot to host a regional depending on how conference play goes. 

The biggest development that has aided Michigan's ability to host a regional down the line is Northwestern's emergence. I said in the season preview that the only B1G team I could see rising up to challenge Michigan were the Wildcats and they look like they're back with a vengeance. The 'Cats are 15-4, with wins over #5 UCLA, #11 Oregon, #17 Clemson, and #7 Washington, rocketing up to the top ten in two of the polls out this week. All of the sudden, Michigan can pick up quality wins in conference play by beating Northwestern. It was the strength of the B1G at the top (Minnesota & Northwestern being very good) in 2019 that helped Michigan host a regional, and that's probably part of the equation this season too. 

The rest of the B1G is only alright. Minnesota is 11-8 with wins over UCF and Arizona State but they haven't managed to scratch out any other big wins and have some unsatisfactory losses on the resume. Wisconsin is 8-6 with wins over Clemson, Notre Dame, and UCF, with no bad losses. Neither of those two are going to be top 25 teams but both could make the tourney. Ohio State is 9-3 with no top 25 wins, but did pick up some victories over UNC, South Carolina, and Louisville, typically decent power five opponents. All of Minnesota, Wisconsin, and OSU are on the schedule in conference play and all seem to have shots to make it in the NCAA field.

The Big Ten is not as strong as it was in 2019 but also seems to be not as weak as it was in 2021, and the presence of a seemingly elite Northwestern will be a big hand to Michigan's pursuits to host a regional. Doing so probably requires dominance in the B1G and taking 2/3 from the 'Cats in early April. Michigan went 22-1 in conference play in 2019 and something along those lines is probably the start here of what needs to happen to host a regional. Going 21-2 in the B1G while being perfect against the MAC opponents would leave you at 42-8 ending the regular season. With that record, you'd definitely have a shot to host a regional. 

 

Nebraska is first up in B1G play [JD Scott]

The Road Ahead

Michigan is now in a period where things will get a bit softer for a while. They host Kent State this weekend (doubleheader today), then get a week off where there are only periodical MAC teams filling in the gaps. It is not until the weekend of March 25-27 that B1G play gets going when Nebraska comes to town. The Huskers are a decent team, 11-6 so far this season and they went .500 in conference play a year ago, actually taking one game off Michigan down in Leesburg, FL. Still, the Wolverines want to go 10-0 over the remainder of March to then set up the marquee battle with Northwestern at the start of April. 

Over this next period before the huge clash with the Wildcats, I'm looking for a few things. For one, I'm seeing if Beaubien can string together a series of danger-free starts. As it stands right now, Storako is going to start at least two of the three games against Northwestern in my mind, but if Beaubien can regain confidence, I might be okay with her starting one of those three. Secondly, I'm looking to see the freshmen pitchers more. I don't think they're going to factor in much during the postseason, but they do represent the future of Michigan Softball and this is the part of the schedule when they should get to play more heavily. Lastly, I want to see a firm lineup solidify. Michigan has 13 players who have gotten at least 16 ABs this season, with a core group of regulars but also a cast of rotation players. Which of those players (Livingston, Tholl, Kersten, Voss, LeClair) seize everyday jobs is worth keeping an eye on, even if there will still be plenty of shuffling against easier opposition.