Previously: Part 1

We're back for the second half of our breakdown of the NCAA Hockey Tournament Pairwise field at the midway point of the season. In the first piece we covered teams 1-8, this piece will cover teams 9-14, as well as Michigan and then give a mid-season prediction on the tournament field. First, #9: 

 

Pairwise #9 - Massachusetts Minutemen

Conference	GP	Won	Lost	Tied	G/Gm	GA/Gm	SH/G	SHA/G	PIM/G	PP%	PK%
Hockey East	16	11	4	1	3.7	2.9	29.3	28.2	12.4	23.4%	79.4%

Top Offensive Players

Name	POS/YR	GP	G	A	PTS	PTS/GM	SHOTS	SH%	PIM	PPG	SHG	+/-
Scott Morrow	D/Jr.	16	5	15	20	1.25	53	9.4%	11	3	0	7
Jack Musa	F/Fr.	16	7	11	18	1.13	36	19.4%	2	5	0	5
Ryan Ufko	D/Jr.	16	5	9	14	0.88	44	11.4%	10	3	0	6

Goalies

Name	Year	GP	W	L	T	GA	MIN	GAA	SO	SV	SV%
Michael Hrabal	Fr.	12	7	3	1	30	674	2.67	1	286	.905
Cole Brady	Sr.	6	4	1	0	14	283	2.97	0	113	.890

On paper, UMass looks like a middle-of-the-pack team that’s found a way to grind out a number of wins. They’ve held their own within the very competitive Hockey East Conference and have also earned wins against some tough non-conference opponents, including Michigan. Helping their Pairwise is the fact that two of their four losses have come in OT against conference rivals.

Junior defensemen Scott Morrow and Ryan Ufko drive the offense for the Minutemen and freshman goalie Michael Hrabal, who wasn't the starter to begin the season, has taken over the #1 duties and has given them the chance to win most nights. UMass is in a good spot right now, but their position is far from a lock and if they can't get more scoring from their forwards and their goaltending doesn't hold up, look for them to be one of the teams on the outside looking in at Tournament time.

[AFTER THE JUMP: the rest]

 

Pairwise #10 - Providence Friars

Conference	GP	Won	Lost	Tied	G/Gm	GA/Gm	SH/G	SHA/G	PIM/G	PP%	PK%
Hockey East	16	9	5	2	3.2	2.2	33.4	23.2	13.8	19.7%	84.9%

Top Offensive Players

Name	POS/YR	GP	G	A	PTS	PTS/GM	SHOTS	SH%	PIM	PPG	SHG	+/-
Nick Poisson	F/Sr.	16	5	9	14	0.88	39	12.8%	16	2	0	8
Jaroslav Chmelar	F/So.	16	5	9	14	0.88	33	15.2%	27	0	0	8
Tanner Adams	F/Fr.	16	4	8	12	0.75	25	16%	0	1	0	4
Chase Yoder	F/Sr.	16	5	6	11	0.69	34	14.7%	16	1	2	1

Goalies

Name	Year	GP	W	L	T	GA	MIN	GAA	SO	SV	SV%
Philip Svedebäck	So	16	9	5	2	34	957	2.13	1	335	.908

Providence is another of the Hockey East teams that has had a good first half of the season and it's reflected by their Pairwise ranking. The Friars are a team that relentlessly grinds the opposition and never seem to be out of a game, with 10 of their 16 games being decided by one goal and another two by two goals. They’re a lower scoring team, with only 5 players registering more than 10 points and only two of those scoring at more than 0.75 per game.

Sophomore goalie Philip Svedebäck has been steady and solid as he was during his freshman season and is capable of stealing a win or two on his own. Providence's remaining schedule against Hockey East opponents will be tough, but the key for them to stay in the hunt for a Tournament berth is to make sure they win the games against non-conference rival Alaska and also take care of conference opponents lower than them in the standings.

 

Pairwise #11 - New Hampshire Wildcats

Conference	GP	Won	Lost	Tied	G/Gm	GA/Gm	SH/G	SHA/G	PIM/G	PP%	PK%
NCHC	13	8	4	1	3.1	2.5	28.8	25.4	10.4	20.8%	80.9%

Top Offensive Players

Name	POS/YR	GP	G	A	PTS	PTS/GM	SHOTS	SH%	PIM	PPG	SHG	+/-
Ryan Conmy	F/Fr.	13	6	9	15	1.15	54	11.1%	2	2	1	6
Cy LeClerc	F/So.	13	7	7	14	1.08	32	21.9%	7	2	1	7
Colton Huard	D/Jr.	13	2	7	9	0.69	35	5.7%	4	2	0	4

Goalies

Name	Year	GP	W	L	T	GA	MIN	GAA	SO	SV	SV%
Jakob Hellsten	Sr.	7	4	2	1	13	425	1.83	1	146	.918
Tyler Muszelik	So.	6	4	2	0	19	362	3.15	1	151	.888

With New Hampshire playing the fewest number of games amongst all the Pairwise teams in this list, they've made significant strides in their overall record compared to last year, but they are one of the teams that has the greatest likelihood of falling out of the list that will qualify for the Tournament. One problem for the Wildcats is they have nine Hockey East games still to play against teams ahead of them in the standings and in Pairwise. Freshman Ryan Conmy has come in and provided an offensive spark, but he won't be a surprise to opponents anymore.

Junior defenseman Colton Huard has been providing offense from the backend, but after him the group is average at best. The big surprise for the Wildcats has been goalie Jakob Hellsten who has put up a solid .918 save percentage and 1.83 goals against average. The transfer from North Dakota played in a career high 13 games last year, so it will be interesting to see if he can handle the load of a number one goalie throughout the rest of the season. At this point they look like one of the teams most likely to regress in the second half and their schedule won’t help them.

 

Pairwise #12 - Western Michigan Broncos

Conference	GP	Won	Lost	Tied	G/Gm	GA/Gm	SH/G	SHA/G	PIM/G	PP%	PK%
NCHC	16	11	4	1	4.0	2.2	37.2	25.8	12.1	27.6%	86.7%

Top Offensive Players

Name	POS/YR	GP	G	A	PTS	PTS/GM	SHOTS	SH%	PIM	PPG	SHG	+/-
Luke Grainger	F/Sr.	16	7	18	25	1.56	37	18.9%	17	0	0	8
Dylan Wendt	F/Jr.	16	13	11	24	1.50	47	27.7%	6	5	0	11
Sam Colangelo	F/Gr.	16	11	8	19	1.19	58	19%	19	5	0	6
Ethan Phillips	F/Gr.	14	7	10	17	1.21	25	28%	8	1	0	11

Goalies

Name	Year	GP	W	L	T	GA	MIN	GAA	SO	SV	SV%
Cameron Rowe	Sr.	16	11	4	1	35	960	2.19	2	378	.915

Western Michigan is looking to punch their ticket to their 3rd straight NCAA Tournament and are leaning on the most veteran team in this list, and one of the most experienced in college hockey. With the departure of a number of top players from last year's team, the Broncos went shopping in the portal and landed Sam Colangelo from Northeastern and Ethan Phillips from Boston University, the latter of whom has already surpassed his career high in goals. Senior captain Luke Grainger leads the team in scoring and is without a doubt the heart and soul of the team. Junior winger Dylan Wendt has already surpassed his career total in goals and points and is a threat to score on every shift.

The defense was stabilized with the return of 5th year player Zak Galambos and Carter Berger and senior goalie Cameron Rowe seems to have regained the form he demonstrated as a freshman at Wisconsin, posting a .915 SV%. Their experience is reason to believe they can continue on this pace and make the NCAAs, but we'll get to see how good the Broncos are, and if they are contenders or pretenders in the NCAA, in the second half of the season when they travel to Denver, St. Cloud State and North Dakota in February and early March.

 

Pairwise #13 - Minnesota Golden Gophers

Conference	GP	Won	Lost	Tied	G/Gm	GA/Gm	SH/G	SHA/G	PIM/G	PP%	PK%
Big 10	18	9	5	4	3.3	2.7	31.6	32.1	8.1	26.4%	82%

Top Offensive Players

Name	POS/YR	GP	G	A	PTS	PTS/GM	SHOTS	SH%	PIM	PPG	SHG	+/-
Bryce Brodzinski	F/Gr.	18	10	9	19	1.06	51	19.6%	6	4	0	2
Rhett Pitlick	F/Jr.	18	9	9	18	1.00	57	15.8%	10	2	1	0
Jimmy Snuggerud	F/So.	18	11	5	16	0.89	76	14.5%	25	4	0	-1
Jaxon Nelson	F/Gr.	18	5	9	14	0.78	42	11.9%	2	1	0	2

Goalies

Name	Year	GP	W	L	T	GA	MIN	GAA	SO	SV	SV%
Justen Close	Gr.	18	9	5	4	47	1098	2.57	2	529	.918

Although still a good team, Minnesota has shown a noticeable letdown after their stunning overtime defeat in last year's Frozen Four Championship to Quinnipiac. In the offseason they lost star Matthew Knies, who signed with the Toronto Maple Leafs, as well as last year's leading scorer Logan Cooley, who signed with the Arizona Coyotes. Losing the 102 combined points that Cooley and Knies provided has hurt the offense, but probably the biggest loss for the Gophers were defensemen Jackson LaCombe, Ryan Johnson, and Brock Faber. That was half of the starting six and not only their best puck movers, but arguably their best defenders.

Nobody (other than those in Gopher land) are shedding a tear for Minnesota as they still have a bounty of riches in players such as Jimmy Snuggerud, Oliver Moore, and Sam Rinzel but it’s not as talented or experienced a team as the one they had in the last two years. As a result, the supporting cast has to step up. Minnesota surrenders, on average, more shots per game than they take, but 5th year goaltender Justen Close has been giving them a chance to win every night. Still, with some tough Big 10 road games ahead at Michigan State, Wisconsin, and Notre Dame along with a pair of home games against Michigan (who ALWAYS plays well at Mariucci Arena) Minnesota may end up being one of the teams who will be seeing an inferior AHC or CCHA Champion going to the Tournament while they stay home.

 

Pairwise #14 - St. Cloud Huskies

Conference	GP	Won	Lost	Tied	G/Gm	GA/Gm	SH/G	SHA/G	PIM/G	PP%	PK%
NCHC	16	9	5	2	2.9	2.3	29.9	26.0	10.8	19.7%	86.4%

Top Offensive Players

Name	POS/YR	GP	G	A	PTS	PTS/GM	SHOTS	SH%	PIM	PPG	SHG	+/-
Veeti Miettinen	F/Sr.	16	10	4	14	0.88	64	15.6%	0	5	1	2
Kyler Kupka	F/Gr.	16	7	6	13	0.81	31	22.6%	4	2	0	7
Dylan Anhorn	D/Gr.	16	2	11	13	0.81	35	5.7%	24	1	0	6
Adam Ingram	F/So.	16	3	9	12	0.75	28	10.7%	10	0	0	3

Goalies

Name	Year	GP	W	L	T	GA	MIN	GAA	SO	SV	SV%
Dominic Basse	Sr.	15	9	5	1	32	865	2.22	3	334	.913

St. Cloud State has been showing the college hockey world that their winning the NCHC Playoff Championship last year and advancing to the 2nd round of the NCAA Tournament wasn't a fluke. After a slow 2-4 start to the season, the Huskies ripped off 6 wins in a row in November before Michigan came to town and slowed their momentum with a win and a tie in their 2-game set. Senior Veeti Miettinen, 5th year Kyler Kupka and sophomore Adam Ingram are the most consistently dangerous forwards for St. Cloud, with veteran defenseman Dylan Anhorn leading the defense.

Senior goalie Dominic Basse, whose mechanics have been improving each year, is using his 6'6" frame to make the saves to give the Huskies a chance to win every night. Like most teams who are teetering on the edge of Pairwise, the 2nd half of the season will test the mettle of St. Cloud. Their schedule will be highlighted with 4 games against Denver, travel to Colorado College for 2, host North Dakota for 2 and also host Western Michigan who will be looking to avenge their 2 home losses to St. Cloud in November. SCS is firmly a bubble team and it’s anyone’s guess if they stay in the picture.

 

Michigan - NCAA Tournament Probability

As we talked about at the beginning of this article, Michigan is currently 15th in Pairwise as of this writing and despite injuries, illness and at times inconsistent play, are still in a good position to qualify for the NCAA Tournament.

Pairwise #15 - Michigan Wolverines

Conference	GP	Won	Lost	Tied	G/Gm	GA/Gm	SH/G	SHA/G	PIM/G	PP%	PK%
Big 10	18	8	7	3	4.0	2.9	35.3	30.8	14.0	31.1%	75.4%

Top Offensive Players

Name	POS/YR	GP	G	A	PTS	PTS/GM	SHOTS	SH%	PIM	PPG	SHG	+/-
Seamus Casey	D/So.	18	4	19	23	1.28	60	6.7%	8	2	0	10
T.J. Hughes	F/So.	18	9	13	22	1.22	56	16.1%	4	5	0	4
Dylan Duke	F/Jr.	18	8	12	20	1.11	51	15.7%	24	3	0	4
Gavin Brindley	F/So.	18	10	8	18	1.0	47	21.3%	20	4	1	6

Goalies

Name	Year	GP	W	L	T	GA	MIN	GAA	SO	SV	SV%
Jake Barczewski	Gr.	16	7	6	3	43	947	2.73	1	449	.913
Noah West	Sr.	3	1	1	0	7	139	3.03	0	53	.883

So, having looked at the 14 teams in front of Michigan in PWR, how do we feel about Michigan’s ability to move up into comfortable tournament position by the end of the season? As imperfect as the season has been, there’s a lot of reason for optimism that Michigan can make that jump, because they sit right on the edge of the bubble with lots of upside to tap into in the second half. First and foremost, there’s the great news that Rutger McGroarty will be back healthy after the World Juniors, having missed the last three weekends of the regular season with an injury that left people wondering if he would be back at all this year.

Another welcome addition back from injury will be defenseman Ethan Edwards who has not played yet this season. Edwards will be looked at to help stabilize a defense that has struggled from inconsistent play throughout this season. Mark Estapa is also expected to return to the lineup, which brings back a physical presence and helps strengthen the bottom 6. Estapa is also an important faceoff man for Michigan. His 63% success rate ranks him 4th in the nation in terms of players who have taken more than 100 faceoffs.

Getting the team healthier can improve the strengths of the team, while also mitigating some of the weaknesses. Michigan has had one of the best powerplays in the nation throughout the first half of the year, and with McGroarty and Edwards back, may even be better in the 2nd half. The secondary scoring, which has been an issue, will also get a bump with improved health. The team will need to improve defensively, especially on the PK, which will take better coaching, but having Edwards back will bump one of the weaker defensemen out of the lineup, which should also help. 

The difficult B1G schedule will offer opportunities for Michigan to bolster their PWR positioning in the second half of the season. The fact that they're 15th despite all the injuries while playing a tough schedule (three different non-conference opponents are currently in the field) suggests that the Wolverines should find themselves in the tournament yet again with a healthy and solid second half. But you have to play the games to get there. 

 

My 'Crystal Puck' Pairwise Tournament Projections

My projections are nothing but a guess based on the data I have available to me combined with the 'eyeball test' of seeing the teams play. There are so many factors that cannot be accounted for when making these projections, but I'm going to go out on a limb and give my picks on what teams will make the NCAA Tournament in March and where they will be playing. Odds are I'm going to be way off, but using the old line, 'even a blind squirrel finds a nut' I may get a few right.

2024 NCAA Tournament 'Projections'

East Regional - Providence, RI	West Regional - Sioux Falls, SD	Northeast Regional - Springfield, MA	Midwest Regional - Maryland Heights, MO
Host: Brown	Host: Omaha	Host: Massachusetts	Host: Lindenwood
Boston College	North Dakota	Quinnipiac	Boston University
Maine	Michigan State	Umass	Wisconsin
Providence	New Hampshire	Western Michigan	Denver
Minnesota	Michigan Tech	RIT	Michigan