It's been almost a full calendar year since Michigan Softball last played a game, but hope is on the horizon: the 2021 Michigan Softball season starts this Friday down in Leesburg, Florida. I have been told by media sources that every game this weekend will be streamed on BTN+, in addition to live stats being provided, so there will be plenty of ways for fans to follow along. With the season now just a few days away, I decided to pen my Michigan Softball 2021 Season Preview, covering the roster, the schedule, and what to expect in this ever-so-unusual campaign. 

A Very Young Roster

The timing of the COVID-19 pandemic meant we got about 1/3 of the way through last year's softball season and the result is a Michigan roster massively lacking in experience. Many of last year's freshmen barely played at all and as a consequence, this year's team more or less has two freshmen classes. The Wolverines have 16 players who will probably get action at the plate in 2021, and just 7 of them have more than 80 career at-bats (!!). This is a very young and inexperienced team, though that will be the case with most teams in NCAA Softball this year, simply because of when last season's shutdown happened. Teams across the country will be dealing with inexperience, roster turnover, and uncertainty in a season unlike any other. Thus, with so many moving pieces on the roster, I've divvied this up into a few sections: mainstays in the batting order, the question mark hitters, and the pitchers. 

The Mainstays at the Plate 

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Lexie Blair will be among Michigan's most important hitters in 2021 [JD Scott]

This category comprises players who I expect to see in the lineup regularly AND who have significant experience to talk about. First up is Hannah Carson, who I anticipate will be Michigan's everyday catcher this year. She had a stellar freshman campaign back in 2019 as a back-up for Katie Alexander and then stepped into the starting role during last year's abridged season. She's been just south of a .300 hitter but with normally solid power and a decent OBP as well, in addition to looking competent behind the plate. She's a breakout candidate in 2021 and one who the Wolverines will need to lead the middle of the lineup. 

Then there's Lou Allan, who's gonna slot in somewhere, maybe at DP but potentially at 1B as well. Allan has had a long and winding career at Michigan, entering as an elite recruit but then was plagued by injuries her first two seasons in Ann Arbor. She entered 2020 finally healthy and had an OPS north of 1.100 against excellent pitching in the non-conference before the season was cancelled. Michigan Softball fans are hoping that 2021 is the year where Lou finally puts it all together and emerges as a dominant offensive threat, drawing walks, hitting for contact, and knocking the softball around. 

Lexie Blair and Haley Hoogenraad anchor 2/3rds of the outfield. Lexie is a superstar in the making, as she was the first Michigan freshman in at least 20 years to hit .400 in a season (not even Sierra Romero did it!) when she hit .406 in 2019 and then was in the process of breaking out of an early season sophomore slump last year before the season was postponed. Now in her third year in the program, Blair should be 1st team All-B1G with ease, hitting north of .350 with speed and occasional power. Hoogenraad has rounded into a solid starter, sporting always great defense and a respectable bat that has a touch of power to it. HH was one of the Wolverines' more consistent hitters during the small bit of last season that happened, and as a 5th year player, she's the most veteran starter in the Michigan lineup. 

The middle of the infield should be patrolled by the tandem of Natalia Rodriguez and Julia "JuJu" Jimenez. NatRod is now entering into her fourth year as a starter at Michigan and it's more or less been the same story every year: she's a prototypical slap hitter who is asked to sac bunt a lot, use her speed when she's on base, and play a clean defensive shortstop. Jimenez was one of Michigan's best players as a freshman last year, and thus she has just 76 career at-bats under her belt. I chose to include her in this section, though, because she showed enough in that short time to make me believe she will be a fixture of Hutch's lineup. She had 8 extra base hits among her 20 hits, and was a spark plug when Michigan needed it. As a former blue chip prospect now beginning her sophomore campaign, I see big things from JuJu in year #2. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: the rest of the roster, B1G, and feelingsball]

The Question Marks

The rest of the hitters on the roster are pretty much a group of total or partial unknowns, who will likely be required to supply three spots in the batting order. The players we know something about include Taylor Bump and Thaís Gonzalez, who are now in their 4th and 5th years in the program, respectively, but have never been able to differentiate themselves as starters. Both got shots at it in 2020 but simply didn't show enough in my mind to think they are for sure starters in 2021. Bump has a ton of power in her 5'10" frame, but she's struggled to unlock it in her collegiate career, struggling at times with the strikeout. She actually walked more than she struck out last year, but she still had a batting average below the Mendoza Line. Meanwhile Gonzalez has been a solid replacement defender and pinch runner, but has never been able to hit well enough to stay in the lineup. And in a lineup that is lacking power, adding the light-hitting Gonzalez may not be the best answer to what the team is missing. 

There are four sophomores who played almost no softball last year and as a result are essentially freshmen in that we don't have much way to know what to expect from them. Many of them have gaudy recruiting profiles, though. They are Audrey LeClair (OF), Lexie Voss (OF), Lauren Esman (UT), and Jessica Garmen (C). Esman and Voss offer real power, and both were top 100 recruits out of high school. Esman swatted 21 HR's as a junior in high school in Kalamazoo, and Voss hit 19 HR's at the same age in the Chicagoland HS softball circuit. For a Michigan lineup that has lacked power basically since the Sierras walked out the door in 2016, if either can provide consistent power, that would be a massive breath of fresh air. Voss got just two AB's last season while Esman got 21, though the latter did make one of her's count: a grand slam to seal a Michigan win. LeClair presents a more athletic/contact hitting/defense mold as an outfielder who was also a top 100 recruit, while Garmen was a late addition to the class, brought in as a local kid depth catcher. 

As for the actual freshmen, there are four of them in what was roughly the nation's 20th best recruiting class. The two blue chips are Keke Tholl (C) and Ryleigh Carricaburu (C/3B). If Keke Tholl's last name looks familiar to you, it's because it is: she's Michigan assistant coach Bonnie Tholl's niece. She was a first team All-American as a junior in HS, another product of the Chicagoland area who hit for average and power (16 HR's). Though she's probably blocked by Carson from getting real playing time at catcher as a freshman, there will be room for Tholl if she can hit consistently. The same can be said for Carricaburu, who boasts a name your author is ecstatic about having to spell for four years. She also comes to Ann Arbor with a Michigan connection, having been coached by former Wolverine Lauren Sweet. Carricaburu boasts a nice mix of speed, defense, and power and is a similarly highly touted recruit. She can play multiple positions and thus would give Hutch decent flexibility if she can find her way into an everyday role. 

The other two freshmen are Kaylee Rodriguez (IF) and Sierra Kersten (UT). Both seem to be multiple positional players who there isn't as much information on and thus I wouldn't expect them to be immediate contributors. Still, there are some interesting things to note, as Kersten was a Gatorade Player of the Year nominee for the state of Michigan in 2019 while in HS, hitting 13 HR's and compiling an impressive batting average. Rodriguez was a late addition to the recruiting class, a multi-sport athlete from the Miami area who was third in the Florida HS home run chase in her shortened senior season. Again, I wouldn't expect much from them early on but they could be intriguing developmental pieces to play a role later in the season. 

A Lineup Guess

​Hutch will have a lot of decisions on her mind about how to set up Michigan's lineup [JD Scott]

Since previews are supposed to have fun predictions, here's my stab at the Michigan lineup this weekend: 

1. Jimenez, 2B 

2. Blair, LF 

3. Allan, 1B 

4. Carson, C

5. Bump, DP 

6. Esman, RF 

7. Hoogenraad, CF 

8. N. Rodriguez, SS

9.  Carricaburu, 3B 

This is not based on a ton of knowledge, obviously, since so much is unknown. Some of it seems pretty predictable. Jimenez/Blair/Allan at the top seems like a beginning I can be comfortable with, and has the potential to be lethal. Hannah Carson will be in the middle somewhere, and should be fine. HH will be somewhere in the bottom third most likely, and NatRod will be in the 8/9 hole. It's the other three spots that are vexing. I like Esman to snag one of those. At least one of the LeClair/Voss/Esman group is going to get a starting spot, I think, and Esman seems the most likely since she was the lone one of the three to start last year and her big HR against Louisville should give Hutch some confidence. I have to think Taylor Bump will get one last shot to start the season, but Michigan will either need a huge senior year from her or for someone else to step up and take that slot. Finally I predicted one freshman to start since there normally seems to be one per year: two years ago it was Lexie, last year it was Jimenez. My guess this year is Carricaburu, but hey, what do I know? 

The Pitchers 

​For the fourth straight year, Meghan Beaubien will lead Michigan in the circle [JD Scott]

Michigan brings a lot more experience to the circle, but there are still some questions in this facet of the game too. If there is one player on the team who isn't a question, it's Meghan Beaubien. An ace since her first day as a freshman back in 2018, the now-senior lefty is one of the NCAA's top pitchers. She was a dominant ace as a freshman, with a 1.16 ERA and a 0.67 WHIP, then fought through an up-and-down sophomore year to put together her (at this time) magnum opus in the 2019 NCAA Tournament against JMU: an impeccable 12 inning shutout with 12 K's. She was the same Beaubien in the small nugget of last year that we got, and that Beaubien is good enough to be an ace in any NCAA Softball lineup. Her mix of speed and spin is nasty and to quote erstwhile MGoBlog contributor and longtime Michigan Softball aficionado Morris Fabbri, "Beaubien is unhittable when her change is cooking". I can't wait to see what MB can do in year four as a Wolverine. 

The key to softball at the collegiate level nowadays is that you need two aces to reach the Women's College World Series. Michigan has a shot to have that this season. Alex Storako has been a steady #2 starter but has yet to reach that ace level. The 5'11" righty brings a more strikeout focused approach to the circle, which makes her an effective contrast to Beaubien. Storako's spin-heavy style made her a solid starter as a freshman in 2019 and she returned in 2020 to post truly ridiculous strikeout numbers. Storako was striking out over 13 batters per 7 innings in last year's shortened season, but her achilles heel remained: the HR. She continues to give up hard contact at alarming rates, which has resulted in a higher ERA than her WHIP would suggest. Simply put, she's gotta figure out a way to cut down on the long ball if she wants to reach the "ace" threshold. 

The other candidate to be Michigan's second ace is Chandler Dennis. A blue chip, elite recruit in last year's class, Dennis entered college not really ready to start at the NCAA level. Carol Hutchins said as much in media interviews and as a result Dennis only pitched 2 innings in 2020 (they didn't go well). But we can't judge her off of that, and Dennis' sterling recruiting rank speaks to her talent. The hope is that after a full year of working with Jen Brundage, Dennis is ready to contribute. While it can't be a reasonable expectation, there is a possibility that Dennis goes from not ready-to-play to ace-caliber in one (elongated) offseason. Even if she doesn't reach that level, Dennis will play a big role given the condensed schedule the B1G is playing (more on that later). Three good arms may be needed to navigate the season and end up with another conference title in the trophy case. 

Finally there's Sarah Schaefer, who is still in the program as a senior. Schaefer hasn't pitched much over her career, serving as the #3 in each of 2018-19 before an injury sat her out for what ended up being the entirety of 2020. Outside of one perfect game on her birthday in 2018 against Robert Morris, Schaefer hasn't shown much to suggest she will be a factor in 2021. But the fact she remains on the roster speaks to the fact that the coaching staff sees some untapped potential in SS. I also should note that the aforementioned Lauren Esman, featured prominently in the hitters section, is a dual-threat and can pitch if necessary too. With so many pitchers on the roster, though, it's hard to see Esman getting a ton of innings. 

What about the B1G?

Assessing the conference is a similarly difficult task in the same way that assessing Michigan is hard: so many unknown players, not to mention the fact that zero conference games were played last season. The last time we saw the B1G in session was nearly two years ago, when the rosters were very different. Entering last season the top tier of the conference was seen as a trio of Michigan, Minnesota, and Northwestern, with Wisconsin and Ohio State lurking below that. Minnesota is still an excellent program that made the WCWS the last time it was held, but like every team, they look a bit different than they did in 2019. The ever-dangerous Makenna Partain and Natalie DenHartog are still around, but they've turned over a lot in the batting order. Amber Fiser is the ace in the circle for the Gophers, helped by sidekick Autumn Pease. They're still probably Michigan's biggest competition in the league. The other option is Northwestern, who were a very young team when they made the Super Regionals back in 2019 and due to the layoff, they have now gained a few years of age, but not nearly as much experience. The lineup is still almost completely intact and they have former B1G Freshman of the Year Danielle Williams in the circle as an ace. 

Wisconsin was a scrappy team back in 2019 but is likely due for a step back after losing the 2019 B1G Player of the Year, slugger Kayla Konwent. They also have turnover in the circle, but the Badgers have a solid program so they can't be totally written off. Ohio State was the only other team from two years ago that was remotely competitive with the big dogs but they also have seen a major shake-up in their roster. They've lost their only three >.300 hitters from 2019 in Lilli Piper, Emily Clark, and Bri Betschell, as well as the entire pitching staff from that team. With all of these teams it's so hard to get a handle on what they'll look like because of the uncertainty. Therefore I routinely am left to rely on the track records of the programs and coaches to an uncomfortable degree, but therefore I am left with Northwestern and Minnesota being the most likely B1G contenders besides Michigan. No other team had a winning conference record in 2019 but it wouldn't be surprising to see someone else emerge. 

The Schedule

Michigan will see all 13 B1G opponents this year, MSU included [JD Scott]

With the COVID-19 pandemic still wreaking havoc, Michigan Softball's schedule has been turned upside down. Typically the schedule consists of six weeks of non-conference tournaments in warm weather areas (Florida, California, Texas, etc.) where Michigan gets to face some of the elite teams in the sport like Florida, UCLA, and Washington, followed by a return to the Midwest in mid-March where the B1G slate commences, with some MAC opponents mixed in. This year will be a B1G-only schedule, which obviously is totally different. The first two weekends (Feb. 26-28 and Mar. 11-14) will be played in Leesburg, FL, where all the B1G teams will have temporarily relocated. Those weekends will include lots of doubleheaders, with Michigan getting two against Purdue, Iowa, Illinois, and three against Wisconsin and Nebraska. After that second weekend the team will return to the Midwest like usual, and then will play four game series against the remaining eight B1G opponents, four of which at Alumni and four on the road. In total Michigan will play 44 games- all of which are in the conference. There will be no conference tournament and so the regular season champion will get the conference's autobid into the NCAA's. 

All of this has some interesting implications for the Wolverines. For one, it will be very difficult to know how good this Michigan team is until the NCAA Tournament. In the normal schedule we get a pretty good sense of how good Michigan is because of their non-conference schedule, playing a bunch of the perennial national contenders early on. But this year we won't get any of those opponents and it will be very hard to compare the B1G to other conferences. 2019 was a high tide for the B1G in recent years, snaring three regional hosts and putting two teams into the Supers, but again it'll be hard to know if that's true for 2021 until postseason play. Another consequence is that Michigan will play every B1G team unlike most seasons, which is decently cool. A side effect though is that because the B1G is traditionally not a deep softball conference, the Wolverines should be able to rack up a lot of easy wins. Michigan went 22-1 in the conference in 2019 when they didn't play either Northwestern or Minnesota. A lopsided record like that should be true this year too, except for when they play the Gophers/Wildcats. 

General Feelingsball

So how does this all stack up? Honestly, I have no real idea because of all of the aforementioned uncertainty. I feel pretty good that Michigan should have a dominant pitching staff with now upperclassmen arms in Beaubien and Storako, not to mention Dennis in year 2. The lineup has some pieces that I feel decent about: I have high hopes for Lou Allan, Julia Jimenez, and Hannah Carson, Lexie Blair should be great like usual, and Haley Hoogenraad and Natalia Rodriguez will likely be their steady selves. The make it or break it factor of this team comes down to who can fill those other three holes. If some of the now-sophomores or freshmen come through and become impact bats, that raises Michigan's ceiling dramatically. Moreover, clutch hitting and power will be themes as they have been every year since the Sierras left. 

Because this is a Carol Hutchins team and because Michigan has a ton of talent, it feels pretty easy to peg Michigan in the top three of the conference. Anything beyond that is hard to do, because we don't know a ton about Michigan and we know even less about the competitors in the conference. And good luck extrapolating that to the national picture. What I can reasonably guess is that if Michigan wins the B1G crown, they'll probably be in line to host a regional. But that's about all I can give you in what should be a weird and fascinating softball season.