What Is This? The Rooting Guide is baaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaack! A couple of year ago, I wrote about the depths of college hockey and how they will impact Michigan in the stretch run to the NCAA Tournament. Since March 2018, they have mostly been irrelevant, as Michigan basically needed to win anything and everything to have a chance…UNTIL NOW! Well, kinda. They still might need to win the B10 Tournament in order to get into the NCAAs, BUT they are technically 16th in the Pairwise Ranking and if the NCAA decides to not give the AHA an auto bid (this won’t happen), then they’re technically in right now! Since the AHA will get an auto bid and Michigan is .0079 out of 12th and .001 ahead of 19th, maybe we should look at these minute details. First things first: the Big Ten Tournament.

Michigan/Michigan State Corsi Table

So, what do we make of all of this? There are three 50/50 games and one MSU even-strength domination. Michigan controlled Game 1 at Yost back in November and then collapsed in the last 20-30 minutes, and the Spartans came roaring back for an improbable win. Games 2-4 were mostly multiple-score games that were never particularly close. State won at Munn in Game 2, and Michigan shredded the Spartans with great finishing in Games 3 and 4 (at Munn and LCA, respectively). Michigan has been a more consistent team in 2020, so they should be favored at home next weekend. Still, let’s check out the Eight Factors.

[After THE JUMP: Eight Factors!]

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Double hockey kick! [Coller]

Michigan/Michigan State Preview

Whew! This is really tight, basically like second through sixth in the B10 Standings. It’s almost like there are two wild and crazy teams at the top and bottom of the conference and five teams shuffled within three points in between them. Special teams stats are identical. The goalie play has been very high from both Mann and Lethemon. Michigan has a bit more talent outside the crease, though, and they tend to control play in even strength situations. So, it sounds like Michigan should…

1. Keep the Game at Even Strength. Yeah, I know Michigan scored a few power play goals in the last “series” against the Spartans a few weeks ago. However, Michigan is 0/8 in their last two weekends…since they played State, actually. The Wolverine power play has gotten better at times, but it still remains inconsistent. Michigan State looked their most dangerous against Michigan when they were on the man advantage. If this series is mostly played at 5v5, I think that benefits the Maize and Blue next weekend. Having the game at Yost should also provide a boost for them.

2. Forecheck. State, like Michigan (and multiple other teams in the conference) has a defense-oriented forcefield. They are happy to play clear, dump, repeat for 50 minutes and hope to catch you on a bad change or taking a bad penalty. While there is some risk to pressing, forechecking their defensemen and keeping play in the Spartan end will ensure Michigan’s even-strength dominance and most likely give their more talented forwards increased chances from the House/Slot area. Michigan’s defense corps has also been a lot more positionally sound in the last few months. That should provide support to their attacking forwards by not getting beaten back in transition. Employing this strategy would be much riskier against Notre Dame or Ohio State, both of which are more capable beating the Wolverines back down the ice. Michigan State might actually be the best matchup for the Wolverines in the conference.

3. Hope Mann wins the Duel. Strauss Mann has a strong argument for MVP of the conference. His numbers are phenomenal, and the eye test says he’s stolen a number of points for the Wolverines this season (the defense has improved by leaps and bounds, too, though). Regardless, Lethemon has been a rock in net in East Lansing, as well, and this series could come down to who blinks first again. Mann was great in February, and Lethemon probably wishes he’d had another shot at a few of the goals that he surrendered. I do expect Michigan to carry most of the play, especially at even strength. Michigan has gotten kinder bounces since the turn of the year as well. It’s hard to see MSU overwhelming Michigan with goals and most likely shots (despite Game 4), but in a defense-fest with no ties, I’m still taking Strauss over anyone else.

The Rest of the B10 Tournament.

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As of this writing there are like no images of this, so yay for Snipping Tool [collegehockeynews.com]

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I am you, and you are me. We are they, and they are we. [collegehockeynews.com]

Michigan won the tie-breaker with Minnesota due to regulation wins in conference play. They lost the tie-breaker with Ohio State due to head-to-head points. They also missed winning the conference by one regulation win. How many second-half leads did they blow in the first half of the…oh, never mind. Wisconsin finished a distant seventh, but they arguably have the most talent (and Turcotte is playing again) in the conference with multiple first-round/potential first-round picks. In some ways, it might be better for Michigan to finish third and not play them in the quarterfinals. We’ll see. Michigan finished the season with the best goal differential in the conference. Also, Michigan was seventh at the beginning of January. They had a tremendous back half of the season.

(5) Notre Dame at (4) Minnesota. The Gophers are JUST behind the Wolverines in Pairwise (spoiler alert). So, there is a reason to root for the Irish, for sure. However, are you excited about potentially facing the Irish in a one-game, winner-take-all with the NCAA tournament berth on the line? Ummmm. I think I personally prefer the Minnesota matchup, despite the Gophers being a potentially more talented team. I’m not sure there’s a correct answer here. Puck drop for Friday and Saturday looks to be an hour after Michigan’s.

(7) Wisconsin at (2) Ohio State. Wisconsin winning this series would send them to Hockey Valley for a one-off with Penn State. It would also mean that Michigan would theoretically host the winner of the Minnesota/ND matchup. Want to go to Columbus? Or host? I think I’m in the boat for hosting. Michigan has also taken three of four from Wisconsin and taken eight of twelve points from Penn State (in a potential B10 Championship Game). Both teams will bring more offensive firepower, but they’ll both potentially leak a few goals, too. With Mann in net, I’ll opt for facing a leakier defense. 

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The top half of college hockey [collegehockeynews.com]

What Is Safe? There are six auto-bids that will go to the winners of the conference tournaments. Atlantic Hockey is going to take one. Their highest ranked team in PWR is 23rd. The WCHA has two teams in the top ten. Unless Minnesota State or Bemidji win their tournament (which is likely to happen, anyway), the WCHA will take a spot. The rest of the conferences (aside from the B10, but Michigan is the third team) have three teams inside the top 14. So, right now, it looks like 14th is probably in the tournament. I’m guessing that 13th will be pretty safe come Selection Sunday. Michigan is right in the middle of seven or so teams that are vying for about three spots. Let’s look at what those teams will be doing this weekend!

12. Arizona State. The Ice Devils have completed their regular season. They have no conference or tournament. It looks like they’ll be able to chill in the desert until they’re most likely selected for their second consecutive NCAA Tournament.

13. Mass Lowell hosts the #32 UConn Huskies on Friday. They only play one game this weekend. UML losing to a team in the bottom half at home would definitely drop them heading into the Hockey East Tournament. UConn do it, Huskies!

14. Quinnipiac has a bye in the ECAC Tournament. They are the #3 seed.

15. Maine hosts #21 Providence as the single game return weekend after last week’s loss in Rhode Island. Losing to the Friars Tuck would certainly maul the Black Bears at-large chances.

16. Michigan hosts the #25 Michigan State Spartans. I believe we’ve covered this previously in this post. I’m impressed you made it down this far in order to prove my redundancy, though!

17. Minnesota hosts the #20 Notre Dame Fighting Irish. The ideal situation is whomever you prefer to face? I think this series going three games is choice. Then, choose your desire for Sunday evening. I think I’m going with Minnesota.

18. Northeastern hosts and visits #30 Boston University. This should be a dog fight. BU Terrier-izing the Huskies is the preference in this case. BU isn’t making the tournament unless they win the Hockey East Tournament. The Fighting Craig Ross-i are only .006 behind the Wolverines.

19. Western Michigan host the #42 NTM Not Enrico Blasi’s. Miami has fallen off a bit since we’ve last engaged with them. Perhaps they can come up big for Michigan in Kalamazoo by knocking off the Brooooncos.