The dawn of the Tracy Smith era in Ann Arbor is nearly upon us. After Erik Bakich exited the program in favor of Clemson, Warde Manuel turned to former Indiana and Arizona State head coach Tracy Smith to lead the Wolverines into the future. It was a bumpy transition at first, with plenty of players entering the portal, but Smith did alright keeping a lot of the roster together, minus graduation/MLB guys he was bound to loss. As a result, a reasonable chunk of production returns from last season's Big Ten Tournament Champion roster. There are plenty of questions, though, uncertainty on the mound, sizable holes in the lineup, and a fresh new coaching staff. Let's get acquainted with all of them: 

Who is Tracy Smith? Who are these new coaches?

Things are a bit different at the top and the Bakich --> Smith transition is the most important. I covered Smith back when he was hired in July, but the first thing to know is he's a much older and more veteran coach than Bakich was when he arrived in Ann Arbor. Smith was a solid coach at Miami (OH), winning the MAC a couple times, and then was hired to coach Indiana in 2005, where he replaced a former mentor Bob Morgan. At IU, Smith was an excellent coach, turning them into the no-doubt best-in-the-conference program by his last few seasons in Bloomington, finishing 2nd, 1st, 1st in the last three years. He won two B1G regular season titles and two B1G Tournament titles, taking Indiana to the CWS in 2013 and snagging the #4 national seed in the 2014. 

The reason Smith was available for Michigan to hire is what happened after he left Indiana, a disappointing tenure at Arizona State. Despite exceptional recruiting, their on-field results were underwhelming, falling short of expectations repeatedly and never finishing higher than 3rd in the PAC-12, also never making it out of the regional in the NCAAs. There were reports of locker room problems, something that the ASU AD alluded to in his decision to fire Smith. It was not what you want from a coach that is coming to Michigan, and my feeling at the time of the hiring is it's all about which Tracy Smith this is. Indiana Tracy Smith would be a terrific coach... the ASU Tracy Smith would be a disaster for Michigan. 

Still, this is a fresh start for Smith and as I wrote in July, maybe he just got out over his skis recruiting blue chip players at a national program like ASU and he's more suited to coaching in the B1G/Midwest, where his background is. It's too early to know anything about Smith at Michigan, but it is a very early decent sign that he was able to fetch several of Michigan's players out of the portal, convincing them to stay. Retrieving Jimmy Obertop and getting him to come back, for example, was massive. I'm willing to hope for the best as there is a wide range of legitimate outcomes with Smith. He needed to bomb out at ASU to be a candidate to come to a program like Michigan, but it's also not too often you get to hire a coach with multiple B1G regular season titles on his resume (something that Bakich never achieved). 

[AFTER THE JUMP: Assistants, hitters, pitchers, expectations]

[Michigan Athletics]

A big question for me with Smith was the coaching staff he'd be assembling, in particular his choice for pitching coach. Had Bakich returned, the plan was already to make a change at pitching coach, given the team's disastrous pitching performances last year (more on that later), so this is an area of emphasis for year one of the Smith era. For pitching coach, he turned to Brock Huntzinger, Boise State's pitching coach and a former Smith disciple. Interestingly, Huntzinger never played NCAA baseball, going to the minors straight out of high school and playing 10 years of minor league baseball, topping out at AAA. He was an undergraduate assistant under Smith at both IU and ASU before going to Boise. I don't know too much about him, but the Michigan press release from his hiring has positive quotes from Chris Fetter, among other respected Baseball Men, so consider me intrigued. 

To fill out the coaching staff, Smith got the band back together in hiring Ben Greenspan as Associate Head Coach and Recruiting Coordinator. Greenspan spent last year at Cal Poly as an assistant, after spending years as Smith's right-hand man. He was the recruiting coordinator for ASU when they cobbled together the elite recruiting classes and was also an assistant at IU when Smith was there, having a hand in those great Hoosiers teams of the early 2010s and coaching players like Kyle Schwarber. It's hard to imagine Smith's leadership without Greenspan and Michigan fans won't have to. Smith also hired Tyler Graham to be Volunteer Assistant Coach and Hitting Instructor, following time as a private MLB hitting instructor and an assistant at Oregon State (a good program) and in the minors with the Nashville Sounds. 

[Paul Sherman]

Returning Hitters

Thanks to Smith's efforts after being hired, Michigan did manage to return a decent chunk of their vaunted lineup from last season, though the biggest pieces have departed. Clark Elliott was drafted 69th overall by the Oakland A's, while Joe Stewart and Matt Frey were out of eligibility as grad students. The only transfer loss was Riley Bertram, who followed Bakich to Clemson, but he was an often-inconsistent offensive player, so it's not the biggest loss in terms of hitting. Everyone else of note is back. 

That includes big bopper Jimmy Obertop, whose 15 HRs were second on the team and will be expected to be a massive piece in the middle of the order. His .891 OPS has him tops among Michigan hitters and the lineup will revolve around Obertop. Unfortunately, the Michigan Daily is reporting that he is out to start the season with an injury, so speedy recovery to Obertop. He's joined by his fellow seniors Ted Burton and Tito Flores. Burton had a somewhat disappointing 2022 season, dealing with high strikeouts, but he's got a solid amount of power and draws a lot of walks. Flores hit 11 HR and posted an .878 OPS, earning ABCA/Rawlings NCAA Division I All-Midwest Region Second Team honors as a DH. Burton, Obertop, and Flores' experience will make Tracy Smith's life a lot easier and likely make up the meat of Michigan's order when all are healthy. 

Michigan had several players fill the final two starting spots in the lineup last year, one of which being football player Joey Velazquez, whose availability will be limited to start the season with spring practice. Joey V never had much of a role in his first two seasons at Michigan, but emerged as a real piece last season, .891 OPS and hitting 5 HRs in just 94 ABs, playing a real role in the OF for the Wolverines in the regional. Once he's released by Jim Harbaugh to join the baseball team full time, I'd expect Velazquez to play a real role. Among the other names, Jake Marti has totally been unable to hit in three seasons at Michigan, but maybe there's a senior explosion waiting for him. Jordon Rogers was a revelation in 2021 but flopped last season, so it's not quite clear what Michigan has there. JoJo has positional versatility as a catcher and outfielder but he strikes out a ton. As a RS Sr, it will be curious to see which Rogers shows up.

Jack Van Remortel finished the year with a .756 OPS but was pushed out of the lineup for the most part late in the season. It was his first year as a regular contributor for Michigan and he chose to come back for a fifth year for a chance at another year as a main piece in the B1G. He did manage to differentiate himself as a master sacrifice bunter last season, so if nothing else, that's a skill that Smith can draw upon. Dylan Stanton saw his first collegiate action last season, going 17/50 in his ABs, swatting a couple HRs but not hitting for a ton of power otherwise. The other names are players who haven't seen the field much at all, so I can't offer much insight, players like Trevor Kilinski, Ian Kennedy, Casey Buckley, Cam Hart, Joe Longo, Cameron Gasser, and Cody Hultink. 

[University of San Diego Athletics]

New Hitters

So what about the ~4 spots in the lineup that don't have obvious returners to fill them? Welcome to the youth movement (and two transfers)! The transfers are at C and SS, Cody Jefferis from San Diego and Gabe Sotres from MSU. Jefferis was a multi-year starter at short for USD, better in 2021 than he was in 2022 but a competent hitter on a decent program, one that made the tournament last year. He profiles as an obvious plug-and-play replacement for Riley Bertram. As for Sotres, he's favored to start behind the plate with Obertop out, a bit of an unknown quantity but a guy that is an upside play. Sotres was a talented in-state recruit out of Brother Rice who redshirted in 2019, barely got to play in the COVID-canceled year in 2020, before starting to earn more regular time in 2021, when he hit .272 across 28 games. Last season was supposed to be a possible breakout campaign, but it ended before it started, as Sotres missed the year with a preseason injury. It's hard to know what Sotres will be exactly but 2021 suggests he could be an acceptable starter until Obertop is back.

The recruiting class that Michigan reeled in is very solid, even if it lost a few pieces to Clemson and Bakich. As of right now, three freshmen are reported to have inside tracks to starting right away. Mitch Voit received praise from Tracy Smith at preseason media availability and appears to have a job at 3B replacing Matt Frey, as well as replacing Willie Weiss at the back-end of the bullpen. The two-way freshman will have a big role for this team and he was a nationally rated recruit coming out of Whitefish Bay, WI. Jonathan Kim of Brookfield, WI, received a 9.5/10 rating from Perfect Game as a recruit, while in-stater Greg Pace Jr. from Southfield was a 9/10. Both are slated to earn playing time according to The Daily, with Kim scheduled for RF and Pace for CF, replacing Elliott and Stewart, respectively. 

The remaining freshman haven't been talked about as much, but they are INF Marc Willi (8.5/10), OF Robert Pitts Jr. (NR) and, C Nate Voss (9/10). A solid crop, and I assume at least a couple will get a chance to get ABs given that they'll be competing with the likes of Marti and Rogers for chances, both of whom struggled last season. There are plenty of spots up for grabs on this team and with a solid freshman class, there is a decent chance we will see plenty of new faces getting into the action. 

[Paul Sherman]

The Pitching

While last year Michigan was an excellent hitting team, the pitching was a calamity. It is frankly a miracle that the Wolverines were as close as they were to a Super Regional appearance given that the team had a 7.00 ERA(!!) that ranked 244th in the country. If nothing else, it shows how damn good the lineup was that it carried the pitching so far. As mentioned earlier, coaching changes were coming to the pitching staff regardless if Bakich had decided to stay, as the drop-off from the post-Chris Fetter era was painfully apparent last season. Michigan had precisely two pitchers who could get outs with any degree of consistency last year, SP Cam Weston and RP Chase Allen. As you can tell from the bolding decision, Allen returns while Weston was drafted by and signed with the Baltimore Orioles. 

The good news for this Michigan team is that most of its innings from last year return. The bad news is that those were largely terrible innings. Allen's return is nice but he wasn't a true starter last year, more of a multi-inning reliever who can sometimes be a long-man or opener (though he did have a couple 5 inning starts). Beyond that the list of pitchers we know can get outs are [404 Not Found]. They add some freshman pitchers, but it's far from a guarantee that a freshman pitcher will make a contribution right away, and otherwise only nibbled on the transfer market. For the most part, Michigan is going to need Brock Huntzinger to get better results out of these same players to improve. 

Lefty Jacob Denner is one name that figures to be in the rotation. He was a solid starter in 2021, not incredible but a respectable arm who, as a sophomore, seemed on track to keep getting better. Then he massively regressed in 2022, with the ERA exploding to 6.38. His strikeout rate stayed the same but opponents hit .304 off him and bludgeoned him with power. Canadian lefty Connor O'Halloran is currently pegged to be the Friday "ace" starter, better than Denner a year ago but not substantially so- a 5.44 ERA and 1.48 WHIP is far from desirable. O'Halloran is a year younger than Denner, so should have more room to improve and it goes without saying that both guys will have to take steps forward if Michigan wants to be in the upper tier of the B1G.  

[Marc-Gregor Campredon]

The rest of the staff is incredibly uncertain. If Allen is in the pen, I'm not sure who the #3 starter would be. Michigan didn't bring in too many freshman pitchers, with football/baseball player Brandon Mann not being the most highly touted and Kurt Barr having a solid recruiting profile and again, freshman pitchers are nothing to be relied upon. The only other freshman pitcher is the aforementioned Mitch Voit, who Smith has said will be in the bullpen as a later inning option. That leaves us with all the other returning pitchers + one transfer who will make up the back end of the rotation (#3 and midweek) as well as the bullpen. 

Sophomores Jake Keaser and Avery Goldensoph were both terrible in limited time last season but are perhaps a reason for hope, as the freshman --> sophomore jump is typically a big one. Beyond that, Noah Rennard was the best returner (best is relative, 5.27 ERA/1.70 WHIP) and figures to have a sizable role somewhere on the staff. Logan Wood, Ahmad Harajili, and Ryan Zimmer are juniors who were flat out terrible last season in limited work, but maybe there is more to unearth there. Walker Cleveland returns for a fifth season but he has an ERA north of 6.00 in four seasons at Michigan so it feels like he is what he is at this point. Finally, Smith did add local kid Eamon Horwedel, who played at Ann Arbor Skyline HS, as a transfer from the Ohio Bobcats. Horwedel is a side-armer who only has 80 career innings in four seasons, but did post a sub-4.00 ERA last season so you have to think he'll get a shot somewhere on the staff. 

I know this is incredibly grim and it is. It was last year. But this is a new season and will be watched over by a new pitching coach, who hopefully will propose fresh solutions that the previous regime did not have. To me a big measuring stick for the Tracy Smith era will be what degree of improvement his staff can get out of the pitchers, as well as the impact the freshmen can have at the plate. If this pitching staff as a whole can see substantial improvement, from atrocious to let's just say "below average", that will be a step in the right direction. No one is expecting this to be a murderer's row of arms like they had under Fetter in 2019-20, but there has to be improvement. That's the bare minimum for year one of the Smith regime. 

[Brad Carlson]

Feelingsball and Expectations 

Last season I walked through the schedule and talked about the conference but I don't think it's as necessary this time since expectations are modest for this team. The Wolverines got hot last season and did big things in the postseason but they were a .500 club in the regular season. For the season they still finished just 34-28 and were 28-25 going into the B1G Tournament. They were a middling team because the despicable pitching results balanced out the mashing hitters. This year you subtract three of the top hitters, one of the two decent pitchers, and bring a new coaching staff in. There's a reason to keep expectations in check. 

However, I don't expect Michigan Baseball to be terrible in 2023 and if they are, that's a bad sign for the Tracy Smith era. Again, it's hard for the pitching to be any worse, so you expect reversion to the mean improvement. The hitting will likely take a step back but with the Flores/Burton/Obertop trio back + a pair of transfers, there's a solid core to build around and the freshmen are talented and ready to play. It's reasonable to believe the hitting takes a step back but if the pitching gets that upward mean reversion, the two balance each other out, and this team is more or less where they were last year entering the postseason, straddling .500.

Michigan was 5th in the conference last season, but a ways back from the top four, and this year prognosticators seem to be pegging them in the middle, 7-8th roughly. That seems fair to me. This season is less about being in a win-now situation and being measured by what can be achieved immediately and more about getting a feel for the new coaching staff, seeing improvement from the pitchers and freshmen hitters, and feeling like there's a sustainable model in place so that when the remaining Bakich upperclassmen depart, the program won't fall into the dark ages. Smith's teams at ASU chronically underperformed expectations so merely hitting expectations in year one will be a good sign, as tepid as that sounds. Like with the softball preview last week, this year is a semi-rebuild with a new coach, one where the main objective will be scanning for signs of a young core to lead the team into the future.