THE ESSENTIALS

THE OVERVIEW

The Big Ten isn't bad this year; they're gaming the system. The NCAA Tournament committee likes signature victories, win totals, and most of all "Quad 1" victories, which means beating a top-25 team at home, top-50 at a neutral site, or top-75 on the road. The Big Ten has one team putting together a signature resume, one awful team to pad everyone's win totals, and a dozen NIT-caliber outfits just good enough to qualify as Q1s if you beat them on the road. Even bottom-feeding Minnesota has a Q1 this year. They're all over the place!

Michigan is refusing to comply. In their last six Big Ten games they denied Maryland, Penn State, and Northwestern resume victories at Crisler, and managed to dodge three golden opportunities to grab one on the road. Since Pitt was a neutral site game and is up to #50, Michigan does have a (bare minimum) Q1 interrupting their otherwise clear Tournament ledger. They've also dropped to #76, so even if bottom-feeding Minnesota pulls off the upset, they won't be able to do anything with it.

The Gophers are the other conference team Michigan managed to slaughter already this season, way back on December 8th at The Barn, when Dug McDaniel was making his first start. That blowout might be some fool's gold since Michigan's shots were falling—they were 10/18 from three in that game—and Minnesota turned it over 16 times.

Like Maryland, Minnesota's big Q1 victory right now is a recent one over Ohio State. Yes, Ohio State is on a five-game losing streak, including another stinker at Nebraska that put the Buckeyes one game ahead of Minnesota for last place in the conference standings. But that streak also has a 2-point loss to Purdue and fall in OT at Rutgers in it.

So if "Ohio State is in freefall" is your reasoning why a team ranked 8 spots behind Lipscomb can't do the same to Michigan, keep that confidence to yourself.

THE US

My graphic [click to embiggen]:

faq for these graphics

Jace had a concussion during practice this week so I'm guessing he's still going to be held out one more game.

THE LINEUP CARD

My graphic [click for big]:

Freshman winger Jaden Henley was starting at shooting guard earlier in the season but has been moved to the bench for Taurus Samuels. Braden Carrington, a just-a-shooter, suffered a recent leg injury that's expected to hold him out until mid-February.

THE THEM

Here's the link to the last Minnesota preview but I got a request to just quote myself so you're not going back and forth. Fine!

Morehead State transfer point guard Ta'Lon Cooper is still better at contested threes than free throws.

It's not often you see a guy shooting worse from the FT line (47%) than three (57%!). Last year those numbers were 66 and 35, FWIW, so this is not the most insane basketball player in the history of the world. Cooper defies HBCU transfer stereotypes by being quite big at 6'4", but his finishing at the rim is poor. He was at 60% last year in the SWAC and is at 50% here. He has a massive assist rate and will be running the show but his TO rate in A+B Kenpom games is 24, which is enormous.

Updated slash line: 42/56/48, so no, Cooper has not cooled off from three. He's now 24/45, after canning 7/11 in his last four games. More impressively he's hit 13/25 off stepbacks. Part of that was being guarded by PGs when Minnesota was rolling out four guys at 6'7" or taller. Kobe Bufkin did a fair job of running him off the line last time. Cooper's high free throw rate (he took nine) vs Michigan were an aberration; he's had just seven attempts from the stripe in the last eight games.

Shooting guard Taurus Samuels is no longer on the bench, but it's hard to tell. He will sometimes attempt to go inside the arc but the results this year have been atrocious. He's a senior, when he's on the court the defensive breakdowns aren't as severe, and he'll make enough of his open threes that you can't ignore him entirely. You can stash Dug on him, however.

Freshman wing Joshua Ola-Joseph…

the #223 freshman on the composite, gets 16 MPG and has been a reasonably efficient slasher. He does not have a jumper, it appears (1/5 on threes, 7/15 from the line) and should be played to drive at all times.

has seen an uptick in minutes and usage lately, but it's come with a precipitous drop in efficiency. He was able to get to the rim against Nebraska well enough, but his five turnovers against Michigan were not an aberration. His four offensive rebounds weren't either; JOJ has more baskets this year on putbacks (10) than all jumpers (9). 

Their other wing is stretch four Jamison Battle, the lone familiar-ish face. He

…missed the first four games with a foot injury and may still be struggling through the after-effects of surgery, as his early numbers are down. He's shooting 35/31 after a 53/37 junior season, and his defensive rebounding numbers are way down. Here's what you have to know about battle: he will shooty shoot shoot. He's the definition of a finesse big but last year he was a stunning 49% on long twos, which are two-thirds of his output inside the arc. Any catch and shoot look from him is very bad, and Battle is very good off the bounce as well. He doesn't get to the rim, but a combination a 49% other twos clip with just a third of those assisted is eyepopping. He puts a high floor on Minnesota possessions… if he's all the way back.

Except that high floor hasn't worked out—he's 2/11 on late shot clock attempts and Average or Below Average at all shot types.

All of these non-entities at the wings leave a lot of the offense to go through junior center Dawson Garcia…

once a highly touted recruit out of Minnesota who opted for Marquette and then transferred to North Carolina last year. He had a major role at Marquette, where he was an effective, high-usage player. He shot 53/36 from the floor, got to the line, rebounded well, and kept his turnovers in check. At UNC he was a relatively high-usage starter before he had to leave UNC and return home with multiple family members in serious ill health. He was not particularly effective in the early going there but that's mostly a big dip in 2PT% that looks like a statistical fluke.

So far at Minnesota it's been pretty rough. His three pointer isn't falling and he's been poor on the boards and can't get to the line except against meatballs. He is clearly Minnesota's best player by some distance even so and will pose a stiff test to Hunter Dickinson, who has historically had some problems defending stretch fives. Garcia is a three-level scorer with a good jumper and reasonable back-to-the-basket game, but his jumper just isn't falling so far this year. Garcia plays the four a lot, FWIW. He's been splitting his time between the 4 and 5 about equally even before Treyton Thompson went out.

Garcia doesn't just take unguarded triples—he's a true stretch—and makes about 30% of them. He's kept his rebounding and free throw rates high into Big Ten play, but the Big Ten doesn't have many 6'11"+ guys this year; Hunter Dickinson gave him his second-worst game of the season. Zach Edey gave him his worst.

The bench:

Center Pharrell Payne is getting 25 minutes a game so Garcia can step out to the four. He…

is a 6'9", 255 beneath the rim banger who is your usual dunks-and-putbacks lower tier big. He's incredibly efficient; he creates none of his own shots.

He's 7th in the conference in block rate and has shown an aptitude for creating opportunities for others. He'll be an interesting player to watch as he develops.

Freshman winger Jaden Henley was still a starter at the two when last we saw him. HOWEVA…

it's a lot to ask the composite #193 to step into a Big Ten starting lineup and it shows. His TO rate is 30 despite meh usage and he's shooting 41/25 from the floor. Rebounds and assists? No.

Via Synergy Henley is an incredible 5/10 on unguarded threes and 1/14 when they're contested. If he could be a Just-a-Shooter they could work on his defense and use his size to give Cooper matchups on the Dug-sized people of the world, but he's taking twice as many twos because his shot takes so long to get off.

If they need an extra center they'll bring in sophomore Treyton Thompson…

a seven footer who manages to be close to invisible on the boards and has a fairly negligible block rate. He's shot more threes (32% clip) than twos in his career. If he's available he's just a big body to bang with Dickinson.

But Thompson's all but disappeared from Minnesota's lineups in Big Ten play—he got just 1 minute of garbage time in the last matchup.

THE TEMPO FREE

They only take a lot of free throws because they're one of the worst teams in the country (361st) at making them (59%). A lot of that's on Cooper and Payne—Garcia is actually okay. They also turn the ball over a lot and miss their shots a lot because they're freshmen and Just-a-Shooters who aren't given the opportunity to be that. They don't foul a lot because they don't go for a lot of blocks. They're also liable to get pushed around on the offensive glass.

THE KEYS

Have an answer for 2-3 zones. I'm sure Minnesota watched the Maryland game, and now they have a much better idea of how to play McDaniel. Maybe have Kobe run point a bit since he can get to the rim.

Run Cooper off the arc. Bufkin had an excellent game against Cooper, and that was the main cause of Minnesota's issues scoring. The five-out looks and size games are all there to get Cooper better matchups.

Hunter be your (old) usual self. He had 19 points on a clean 7/11 from the floor and 4/4 from the stripe last time. This can't be another one of those sleepy home games where he's not taking advantage of his matchup.

Go ahead, attack the glass. Michigan usually bails after the shot to set up their defense, but Minnesota has struggled to box even more than Michigan.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by 14.