THE ESSENTIALS

THE US 

It's Tourney Time everybody! David and I have covered this Michigan Hockey team rather vigorously throughout the 2020-21 season on this blog (you can listen to this week's HockeyCast here!), but I understand that this is the time of year when non-hockey diehards tend to tune in to watch the important games, so I'll get everybody quickly up to speed on the season. 

Michigan came roaring out of the gates with a 4-0 start but skidded into the break to close the first half a disappointing 5-5. Since the start of 2021, it's generally been a pretty fun ride: 10-5-1 with a +36 goal differential over that span. There have still been frustrating letdown moments, but after watching this team play the other elite B1G teams (Minnesota, Wisconsin), there's every reason to believe Michigan can make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament and beat the best of the best on the right day. 

Michigan is powered by their youth and the overwhelming talent of that youth. The Wolverines boast two current first round picks (Brendan Brisson, Cam York; Johnny Beecher, also a first rounder, is OFTY), as well as three players who will go in the lottery of the 2021 NHL Draft (Owen Power, Kent Johnson, and Matty Beniers), in addition to a high second round pick in Thomas Bordeleau. The Wolverines are probably the most talented team in college hockey in terms of pure NHL talent, but as a consequence, are one of the NCAA's youngest teams. They also rely heavily on that young talent, with their top four scorers all being freshmen. Junior Strauss Mann, who could be playing his last games in the Maize & Blue this weekend, has held down the net with another stellar season. When Michigan is playing well, they have a high powered offense, a sturdy defense, and excellent goaltending, with few holes to exploit. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: Scouting the opponent and more thoughts]

THE THEM 

​The Bulldogs have done lots of celebrating over the last few years [Clint Austin, Grand Forks Herald]

You may remember Minnesota-Duluth from the 2011 National Championship Game, when the Bulldogs beat Michigan to claim the national title. At the time it was really the capstone for a program that had spent years summiting the mountain of college hockey glory. In the intervening decade, UMD has stayed atop the mountain. Scott Sandelin is now in his 21st season behind the bench in Duluth and he has transformed a program that was once a low-level WCHA team with occasional tourney appearances in the 80s/90s into a full-fledged powerhouse. They've now made the tournament eight times in the last ten starting in 2011, and oh yeah, are also the two-time defending National Champions (2017-18 and 2018-19). 

As you may guess from that introduction, the Bulldogs' greatest strength is that they know how to win in March/April. Like, to a freakish extent that makes your author consider witchcraft as a possible explanation. It isn't just that Scott Sandelin now has three rings on his hand, it's that Duluth has seemingly defied all of the bad luck that normally comes with playing in a sadistic experiment like a one-game, single elimination hockey tournament. As David stated in our full Tourney preview earlier this week, the Bulldogs are 8-1 in one goal games in the last three NCAA Tournaments and have won 6 straight OT games in the Tourney. Sandelin's winning percentage in the tournament (21-6 = .778) is the best of any active coach with a minimum of at least eight games coached, and oh yeah, he's 9-0 in first round games as a head coach (!!!!!!!!!). Scott Sandelin and Duluth has read your book about reversion to the mean and has promptly thrown that book onto the freeway and watched it get run over by a dump truck. 

So, the project of beating Minnesota-Duluth feels less a matter of beating a hockey team and more a matter of breaking a supernatural aura of good luck that has helped carry an excellent program to outrageous heights. But as a hockey team itself, this Duluth team is quite beatable and one that I think is actually a good matchup for Michigan. For one, this isn't quite the same caliber of team as the one that steamrolled to the national championship in 2019... and most of the roster has turned over. 

The top line for Duluth has three drafted players, with Noah Cates (5-13-18) centering Nick Swaney (13-14-27) and Quinn Olson (3-7-10). That distribution of points across the line is a theme for the Bulldogs, a team with good depth scoring and who scatter their top scorers across three lines. Jackson Cates (10-16-26) centers the second line which features the team's 3rd and 5th leading scorers on his wings, while fourth leading scorer Cole Koepke (13-8-21) is down on the third line. They don't have many big time impact players but have a deep lineup that can score goals for a team that was 5th in the NCHC in goals scored. They're a good and balanced offense- but not a great one. 

Defensively, they lack the high impact offensive talent of past years. Gone are Mikey Anderson, Dylan Samberg, and most pivotally, Scott Perunovich, who could drive play from the back end forward. Instead they've got a bunch of defensemen who defend well and can make the first pass out of the zone, but don't do much in the other end of the ice. Their leading point getter defensively is Wyatt Kaiser who has a 0-10-10 line for a cool 0.39 PPG clip. Their team in 2019 had four defenders scoring at a higher clip than that. Kaiser himself is an interesting developmental prospect with some legit skill as a freshman who was a 3rd round pick of the Chicago Blackhawks, but he's not a big time offensive player yet. Everyone else in the defensive corps profiles as limited puck movers at best and stodgy stay-at-home guys at worst when it comes to offensive ability. That's alright, though, because Duluth defends well, finishing 2nd in the NCHC in goals against. 

SPECIAL TEAMS

This is an area that could be a clear advantage for Michigan. The Wolverines boast a power play scoring at 24% (9th), while Duluth's penalty kill is at a dismal 75% (44th out of 51 teams). Michigan fans may remember how not fun it can be to be a tourney team with a giant weak spot at penalty kill (see: Frozen Four, 2018), and the Wolverines have the tools on offense to exploit Duluth's weakness. On the flip side, second half improvements have gotten Michigan's penalty kill up to 82% (20th), while Duluth's power play sits at a similarly solid 20% (19th). Though this matchup is probably null, the reality is that Michigan's PK is probably even better in the present than that 82% indicates, given how dreadful it was in the fall, so I may go so far as to say the winged helmets may have advantages in both dimensions of special teams. 

GOALIE(S)

Having Strauss Mann between the pipes is a major asset for Michigan [James Coller]

Here's the other area of clear advantage for Michigan. Strauss Mann has been excellent for basically two straight years now, which is why he may well bolt to the professional ranks and sign a contract with an unknown team (he's an undrafted free agent) the moment Michigan's season ends. Though his last time out saw him allow one of the worst goals of his career in a high pressure moment, the full body of Mann's work on the season suggests he's a top tier collegiate netminder capable of making huge, A+ saves in big moments. 

The tandem in the Duluth end of Ryan Fanti and Zach Stejskal is decidedly not that. The dogs of the Iron Range have been tasked with replacing storied goalie Hunter Shepard, who backstopped the team to those two national titles in 2018 and 2019, and have been simply okay. Stejskal's got the decidedly better stats (1.98 GAA, .923 SV%), but Fanti (2.40 GAA, .905 SV%) has played far more often and also played in both NCHC Tournament games for Duluth. I'm guessing it'll be Fanti in net on Friday. 

KEYS

Control play at 5v5. Michigan was an elite Corsi (a metric measuring puck possession) team this season, finishing 6th with a CF% of 56.0%, while Duluth was again solid at 53.3%. Michigan should have the advantage at even strength in terms of dictating play, and the best way to cut down on chances against is simply to control play. 

Strike with the man advantage. As previously stated, Michigan also should have a clear advantage when on the PP. Playoff hockey tends to not give out many power plays, so it's imperative that the Maize & Blue exploit that weakness when they have the chance. 

Get an early lead. Michigan is 12-1 this season when scoring first and generally plays very well with the lead. Get the first goal, control play, and let your goalie do the rest of the work. 

Clog the slot in the defensive zone. Also as previously stated, Duluth's defenders don't add much to the offense, which is why Michigan should devise a defensive plan to make the Bulldog blue line beat them. Take away the slot and the high danger areas down low, and make Duluth try to bomb away from the point, or challenge the defenders to jump up into plays. 

General Feelingsball

Michigan will win if Luke Morgan & Co. score more goals than Duluth #analysis [James Coller]

Overall, I like this matchup for Michigan. Duluth lacks a really good goalie, which generally is crucial for playoff hockey, and their defense will not be like what we just saw from Minnesota in the B1G Tournament. These defenders aren't going to aid the forecheck aggressively, jump up in transition, or have the athleticism to hang with Michigan's forecheckers like those of the Gophers. If Michigan can get that early goal, I like the chances for the Wolverines in this game. Unfortunately, it's also one game of hockey against a Duluth team that is ridiculously hard to beat in the NCAA Tourney, so Michigan could play a perfect game and lose because a Bulldog shot triple doinked and went in. Welcome to the worst postseason in sports, (don't) enjoy it while you can!