Hardaway Versus Harris
FIGHT
[note: this post and the BWS post were written before the Northwestern game.]
A hearty thanks to Burgeoning Wolverine Star for showing men of pessimism what pessimism really is in his post on Michigan basketball's immediate future. Whereas I'm content to downplay Michigan's chances at making the tourney this year, BWS wants you to know that Michigan isn't making the tourney next year, the year after, or ever again.
I kid. I think so, anyway. But the thing that struck me as true Keyser Soze-level pessimism was when BWS downplayed the possibility Hardaway will blow up by comparing him to Manny Harris:
Hardaway's measurables and stats are remarkably similar to Harris' throughout his career at Michigan:
PPG RPG APG FG% 3P% Harris 07-08 16.1 4.2 2.7 38.10% 31.80% Harris 08-09 16.9 6.8 4.4 41.50% 32.70% Harris 09-10 18.1 6 4.1 42.10% 30.80% Hardaway 10-11 12 3.8 1.5 37.50% 32.60%
Not that adding Manny Harris to this team wouldn't be beneficial, but Hardaway's production and body type--to say nothing of his predilection to take bad three pointers--are things Beilein has had to play with in the past. With any luck, Hardaway will avoid the general apathy and combativeness with the coaching staff that Harris showed toward the end of his career at Michigan, but regardless, seeing Hardaway turn into an unstoppable force is a little optimistic IMO.
The thing about Harris is that he didn't get much better, as the above chart suggests. None of those percentages have anything to do with frequency. Harris's usage rates as a sophomore and junior were almost identical, he took as many threes, as many twos, etc. The main difference between the two years was a considerable drop in assist rate that the team mirrored, dropping from third to 21st in percentage of shots assisted. Since the only losses from the team were two walk-on guards and the Grady buried behind them you can argue that Harris actually got worse between his sophomore and junior years. Also, Manny collapsed every Big Ten season as defenses collapsed on him.
BWS uses this as a cautionary tale about projecting Hardaway down the road, but I think that's backwards. Players improve as they age and they improve a lot when they are young. Manny not improving at the same time he was getting suspended, sitting on the bench for OT against Iowa, etc., says more about Harris specifically than Beilein's ability to deal with a Harris-type player.
Even if Beilein's inability to cajole Harris into learning how to use his off hand or not jack up strange three-pointers multiple times per game suggests Hardaway's fate, Harris still improved radically after his first season. There will be graphs. Meanwhile, Hardaway has a much better offensive efficiency mark than Harris as a freshman with nearly as much usage. He's almost reached Harris's sophomore and junior marks because of one glaring difference between the two players: turnover rate*. Harris was at 22% as a freshman and only got down to 16.5% as a junior; Hardaway is 14th nationally at 9.3%.
Now, there are lots of reasons for this that have nothing to do with the relative merits of the players. They can be summed up with the words "Darius Morris," who has a Harris-like 18.8 TO rate that no one's complaining about because he's fourth nationally in assist rate. Hardaway does not have to be the primary ballhandler. He doesn't provide the assists Harris did. He has a lower TO rate than anyone on the team, three-point specialists included, despite using more possessions than anyone except Morris. He should learn what shots are good and which are not as his career progresses, something Harris didn't want to or couldn't because he didn't have the butter—[strangling sounds] version of Darius Morris next to him or anyone who could shoot ever.
While I don't think Hardaway is as good as Harris was as a freshman or will be as good as Harris was as a sophomore, he doesn't have to be in the context of this Michigan team to be more efficient than Harris could ever dream of being. Chart? Chart. Chartzzzz.
[These are adapted from the excellent Big Ten Geeks study from a couple years back that showed the general path of improvement as players age. Kenpom has not updated individual numbers from last night yet so these are a tiny bit out of date. Hardaway went 5 of 11—3 of 8 from three—was 4 of 4 from the line, and had four assists to two turnovers, so these are slightly pessimistic.]
Shot%
Harris maintained an epic usage level his entire career; Hardaway has started off at nearly the same rate.
eFG%
Due to the high usage both are below average. Harris was less efficient, likely because very few of his buckets were assisted. Hardaway should not expect to improve as much but should at least equal Harris next year; average is within reach.
TO%
Harris was slightly above average for the duration of his career but these numbers include a lot of stone-handed post players and are not targeted towards guards; I don't have any data but eyeballing it those numbers seem thoroughly mediocre.
Hardaway's numbers are remarkably good for anyone, even players who believe the ball is radioactive. He's the only freshman on the list until you get to #38, and the first frosh playing outside the Dakotas you find is #44 Jared Sullinger. The guys above him are folks like Wisconsin's Tim Jarmusz (9.5 usage rate), Illinois's Bill Cole(11.5), and… uh… Jordan Taylor (best point guard in the country unless you're an idiot).
His numbers are so good that we can expect him to regress next year, especially if he starts driving more aggressively. They're also too good to be a fluke given his usage.
ORtg
Since Hardaway doesn't have to be the primary ballhandler he is crushing Harris and the average for freshmen. Improving shot selection, reducing usage, increasing assist rate, and general improvement should send this higher next year—higher than Harris ever achieved.
What would have happened to Manny Harris if he had an awesome point guard next to him? What about awesome point guard + conscience? What about awesome point guard + conscience + actually liking his head coach? These are the questions we're about to find out as we watch Tim Hardaway, Jr., go from maddening but efficient-for-a-freshman to something between a good second banana and a ninja.
SIDE NOTE: These numbers brought home another point: Darius Morris is a better player than Harris ever was, full stop. Literally the only thing Harris has on Morris is a few points of 3PT% and a slight edge in free throw rate**. Morris is shooting far better than Harris ever did from within the arc, assisting on damn near everything he's not scoring, and maintaining an acceptable TO rate.
Freshman, Minutes, And Improvement
To further dispute BWS, he mentions later that people are pointing towards the extreme youth of the team as a reason they will improve considerably:
The biggest source of hope is that Michigan's team is once again one of the youngest in the country. Much like in 2009, Michigan's team is at a serious disadvantage in terms of college experience. This was one of the biggest points of optimism for the 2010 season that ultimately saw the team flame out spectacularly and lose close games in agonizing fashion.
Even before the season it was clear Michigan was overrated at the #15(!) team in the country after finishing the year 50th in Kenpom. People expected them to get better and got worse, something I'd again argue was a chemistry problem largely brought on by Harris. That problem won't be around next year and even if it did the overall percentage of freshman minutes then was far lower than it is this year. In 2009 freshmen played 31% of Michigan's minutes. This year it's 44%.
What's more, the second and third highest usage guys on the team are freshmen who play at least 60% of minutes. In 2009 Douglass and Novak had low usage and Laval Lucas-Perry was a mid-year transfer who only played 33.% of Michigan's minutes. The percentage of possessions used by freshman this year is vastly higher. Two years ago: 26%. Now: 45%. That plus being on the same page should yield a significant improvement in 2011-12.
Yes, Mr. Gaerig, you are too pessimistic about basketball, but you already came to that conclusion yourself.
*[The percentage of possessions used that end in a turnover.]
**[Harris has an individual edge in rebounding but this year's team is much better in that category than they were the last couple years so how much of that is actually meaningful is in question unless you're David Berri. Also Morris doesn't play the three, Hardaway does.]
February 10th, 2011 at 1:00 PM ^
We all love Manny. The context of the Hardaway improvement vs. Harris's career debate has more to do with their surrounding players than Tim v Manny as individual players/people. I do think Hardaway seems more coachable but can totally understand Manny's frustration his junior season. When teammates are missing open looks and your center can't catch your passes you end up trying to do too much yourself. Hopefully that's not a reality Hardaway will ever encounter.
February 10th, 2011 at 11:55 AM ^
Harris as a freshman was capable of more across the board than Hardaway is. However, the skills in which Harris is better than Hardaway are things that Hardaway can measurably improve at: ball handling, strength, and defense (if you choose to say Harris was a better defender than Hardaway is now which I think isn't significantly true).
The one thing that Harris will never have on Hardaway is the jump shooting ability. Hardaway has an excellent jump shot, and that combined with the athleticism and basketball IQ gives him a higher overall ceiling than Harris had, in my opinion. Also, as Brian and everyone else has pointed out, Hardaway's got a much better supporting cast and he has the ability to be far more efficient in his role on the team. This is largely because we are now in Beilein's 4th season and he has had the time and ability to come closer to constructing his ideal team. Harris and Sims weren't HIS guys. We had a nice run with them in 2009, an ugly year last year, and I am really appreciative to Manny's contributions as a Wolverine because he was the major reason we ever sniffed the NCAA tournament again.
That all being said, whatever you want to say about our tourney chances this year (not dead by any means), there are many more legitimate reasons to be optimistic about our prospects for next year than there were for any of the Manny Harris Michigan teams.
February 10th, 2011 at 12:01 PM ^
both Darius Morris and Tim Hardaway are better than Manny Harris. Both aren't the athlete that Manny is and both have better overall team around them than Manny. Manny was asked to score when there's no one beside Sims, who can give you great games and disappear in other games, on the team who can score on a consistent basis. Most of his ill-advised shot are a direct result of lack of scoring around him IMO. Manny would be more efficient and take less shot if he has teammates who can knock down shots, but when they keep missing open shots, it gives Manny incentive to try to score all by himself.
Granted, Hardaway is off to a nice start, but to say that he's better than Manny is premature IMO.
Hardaway does a better job of taking care of the ball like you said, but his role is different than Manny. Hardaway's role is to be a complimentary scorer along with Morris, not to be a primary scorer.
Morris may have higher assist rates but Manny also would have higher assist rate if his teammates can knock down wide open shots. Manny's assist rate is 27.7% which is excellent considering that he is asked to be a primary scorer and playmaker much like Morris. I realized that Morris is a PG and his job is to run the offense and have a lot of assists. Manny's ability to pass the ball is an underrated aspect of his game since he is known for scoring. Manny also has lower turnover rate than Morris at 16.5% compared to Darius Morris's 18.8%. Manny has the ability to draw fouls and is a very good free throw shooter (Darius is also good in this department but not quite as good of FT shooter than Manny).
With that being said, this year team as whole is better than last year. There are more players who can contribute as opposed to having to rely on two players(Harris and Sims) to score every night in order to win. Manny did lead Michigan to NCAA tourney berth and you can't take that away from him.
February 10th, 2011 at 12:01 PM ^
I think a huge point that isn't being mentioned is the fact that Tim Hardaway Sr. was a sucessful NBA player. Having that time of mentor in Jr.s life probably will pay huge dividends. I am assuming Tim has more access to coaching and great NBA players than Manny ever had.
February 10th, 2011 at 12:20 PM ^
Worst case, I'm glad that I'm optimistic this late in the season. I thought I'd be in "let's see how the kids are developing mode" right now, but I'm starting to think that we'll at least have a chance to blow it by losing early in the Big10 tourney. That's probably technically pessimistic, but it's better than I thought after the IU and NW road games.
As far as seeing how the kids are developing, it's great to see THJ grow with every game, regardless of whether it's at home or on the road.
February 10th, 2011 at 12:24 PM ^
If BWS is concerned that Beilein may never turn us into a Final Four contender like OSU and MSU, then I think he's got a point. There are valid reasons to be skeptical that he'll ever be able to recruit or have a scheme that will compete at that level. But aside from a 5 year period 20 years ago, when have we ever been at that level?
If you want to have a program that will be a 5/6 seed in the good years and at worst a bubble team in the bad years, I think there's plenty of reason for hope - as Brian points out.
Hardaway has the potential for a bright future....and so did Harris. Morris is already a border-line star. And quietly Morgon has been a solid B10 center as a freshman. Who knows what he could accomplish in three more years.
The development of Smotrycz and whoever will play the "shoots open threes" position over the next 2-3 years will determine how high the ceiling for this program is.
February 10th, 2011 at 1:14 PM ^
I know it's hard to imagine at this point, but Michigan was a Final Four "contender" for not 5, but over 30 years. We won Big Ten titles in the 70s and 80s, before the period you even mention. And made 3 Final Four appearances before that era. Only about a dozen teams have appeared more, and that's with 15 wasted years. So if you mean annual Final Four appearances, then no; but no one does that. But you're hoping in a GOOD year that we break into the top 20...when the beaten down standards of the program certainly don't reflect it's history. A program that fights to get into the Tourney every other year isn't a good one (it's actually not that hard, and it should be odd to miss it, not make it). Now whether that's the ceiling under Beilein remains to be seen. But it's certainly not for the program.
February 10th, 2011 at 2:50 PM ^
Since when has college sports ever been about saying "Our rivals are too good. Just give up. We'll never do what they do."
February 10th, 2011 at 1:11 PM ^
"His numbers are so good that we can expect him to regress next year, especially if he starts driving more aggressively. They're also too good to be a fluke given his usage."
This sums it up. Next year his TO% will increase but he'll more than compensate by getting to the line a bunch a la Manny.
February 10th, 2011 at 1:42 PM ^
,The younger fans should check the past BB did not begin with the Fab 5. Campy,Cazzie, Rudy T, Ricky G, Phil H ,Tim M, Glen R, man the list goes way past that, my apologies to all I have cheered for these past 40 some years and not added I was just making a point. By the way who remembers Dave Baxters huge Afro bouncing when he brought the ball up the court, makes me laugh just thinking about it.
February 10th, 2011 at 4:17 PM ^
I was just a babe when Cazzie Russell played, and still too young when Rudy Tomjanovich did. Unfortunately, I don't remember Dave Baxter's afro, but rather Rickey Green's soaring high when he dunked.
February 10th, 2011 at 2:37 PM ^
In sadder news, look at how far our jerseys have fallen under Adidas. Maize has turned into neon yellow on our jerseys and licensed apparel.
February 10th, 2011 at 2:39 PM ^
What the hell is our excuse to NOT be in the tournament next season? We should be in it and as a higher seed (#10) than we were in 2009.
Just the way the roster shapes up, I think we will finally have a litmus test on whether or not Beilein's style is ever going to work here or not.
February 10th, 2011 at 2:40 PM ^
Not only should the team significantly improve next season and most definitely make the NCAAs, but if you look at the other rosters in the Big Ten, Michigan will probably be one of the most experienced teams while still being relatively young. OSU will lose Diebler, Lauderdale, Lighty, and most certainly Sullinger. Wisconsin loses Lauer and Nankivil, two of their three players averaging more than 6 ppg and their best bigs. Purdue will be saying goodbye to Johnson and Moore, their two best players with Hummel hurt. And even Illinois will graduate McCamey, Tisdale, and Davis. While it's way too early to make any definite statements, don't be shocked if next year's Wolverines are at least competing for the Big Ten title.
February 10th, 2011 at 2:59 PM ^
I have to say i was one of those who thought Beilein should go. Every game they are proving me wrong.These kids are fun to watch play.
February 10th, 2011 at 3:09 PM ^
talent, especially his scoring ability, I never really felt as though he dominated games or that his scoring ever really directly corresponded to the team's success. His good games were random, Manny would have 8 points and the team would win and then he would have 24 and they would get smoked. But he never really became anything more than a scorer, so I really don't know what he was. He was a good scorer on a team that needed more from him than scoring.
Hardaway seems like he has the capability of being more of a well rounded player than Manny ever was. He seems to have good defensive instincts, he fights hard to the bucket whereas Manny would shoot fadeways from 5 feet, and I think he will become a better passer than Manny was.
I think Hardaway will be better, but I really never felt that Manny was all that great to begin with.
February 10th, 2011 at 8:19 PM ^
Good post. While I think it is still too early to reasonably compare Hardaway to Harris, the future is certainly bright. Manny had his flaws no doubt, but it is obvious that he didn't have nearly the help that Hardaway currently has.
Either way, next year is going to be fun. Anything good that happens from now till March is gravy. A nice run in the NIT would serve as some great momentum and invaluable extra game/practice time.
February 11th, 2011 at 11:39 AM ^
Hardaway is a better athlete than Harris also. He is more of a team guy and guards his position way better now than Harris ever did. As overall players Hardway's upside is much bigger than Harris' was, especially Manny wanted to do things his way.
The team next year will be different than 2010 simply because of Novak and Douglass being seniors and very good leaders.
Comments