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Gavin Brindley's Offensive Eruption Since The WJC Comment Count

Alex.Drain February 8th, 2023 at 9:00 AM

We're one month into the second half of the 2022-23 Michigan Hockey season and so far predictions that the Wolverines would heat up in the second half, as they did under Mel Pearson, have been proven largely correct. Michigan is 5-1 in regulation since the holiday break and 6-2 overall, climbing the B1G standings and putting together a resume that is threatening for a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Perhaps the biggest factor powering Michigan's second half improvement has been the sudden emergence of Gavin Brindley, whose snakebitten first half has given way to an offensive explosion in the second half. Since playing for Team USA at the World Juniors, Brindley has scored a 5-7-12 line in eight games, scoring more points in those eight than he did in the 14 games he played in the first half. What's going on here? Let's take a look, by analyzing different areas of his game: 

 

Shooting

The biggest change in Brindley's game compared to the first half of the season is the finishing, so that is a decent starting point for this piece. Brindley's first half was brutal from the shooting department, and out of step with how he was marketed as a recruit. He wasn't known as a sniper or anything, but scouts did like his shot as a whole, something I noted back in the season preview: 

Brindley is considered more of a playmaker than a goalscorer, but scouts do like his shot, and as a whole, you have a well-rounded prospect

That assessment proved correct in the first half in the sense that he was indeed more of a playmaker than a goalscorer, but I don't think there were any scouts who thought his shot was going to translate to just one goal in the first half of the season. When Michigan convened for the Christmas break, Brindley had just one tally on *52* shots, which comes out to a 1.9% shooting percentage. Anyone familiar with how shooting percentages in hockey for forwards work knows that that is a comically low number that was highly unlikely to hold up, especially with the shot volume Brindley was generating (3.7 shots per game). You expect a forward to be shooting in the 10-12% range unless they are an exceptional (or exceptionally poor) shooter, and even then the extremes generally can only get up to ~20% and as low as 5% unless something crazy happens. Brindley's 1.9% was never going to stand. 

But it's also reversed in a HURRY, perhaps faster than anticipated. Brindley's shot volume has largely stayed the same (actually ticked down slightly, to 3.1 per game), but a lot more are going in. Since the second half began, Brindley has scored five goals on 25 shots, a 20% shooting percentage. At first glance, that number screams "unsustainably high", pulling his season numbers all the way from the disastrous 1.9% clip up to 7.8% after potting three goals on the weekend against Wisconsin. The important thing for Brindley, though, is that when I look at the goals he's scored in the second half, I don't think he's getting much good finishing luck, with three of his five goals being excellent shots that showcase real NHL shooting talent. 

His most recent goal is perhaps the greatest example of this shooting talent, a bomb from the left wing with his right-shot positioning the body inside-out towards the net: 

NHL watchers will recall very well that this is the part of the ice we call Alex Ovechkin or Steven Stamkos' office, two of the great one-time shooters of all time, both of whom are also right-shots like Brindley. It's a pretty comfortable spot on the ice for a shot like Brindley's and this particular release is a missile. Brindley gets it out all in one motion, very Ovechkin/Stamkos-esque if we had to make a comparison, and the velocity is so great the puck is blown by the glove of Jared Moe before he has much of a chance. That shot is the farthest thing from a fluke. 

The second goal I want to highlight from the Wisconsin series is this one on the PP: 

I've been a big fan of the way Michigan has been using its PP recently, with a trapezoid 2-3 set up, allowing them to pass in a high-danger area along the goal line. Here Brindley gets the pass across from Fantilli and he's got a yawning cage with Moe yet to slide across. In theory that sounds easy, but look at the angle Brindley is stationed at: that is not the most obvious shot for the net if we're being frank, and if he double clutches it at all, it would give time for Moe to get over. The shot needs to be a one-timer and needs to be on point at a difficult angle, but Brindley has no trouble doing that. Again, far from puck luck. 

Finally, there's this shot from Minnesota 

Adam Fantilli makes the play here, stripping a Gopher of the puck behind the net and then flipping it in front, but we are treated to another display of pure finishing talent from Brindley. He walks right up the slot and unleashes a tricky one-time shot that beats Justen Close as he's sliding over. What we've seen over these three clips is how Brindley's one-timer has a smooth release, allowing him to get it out in a hurry and catch goalies on the move when there's a change-of-sides pass setting him up. The quick release has its advantages and then the ability to put pace and accuracy on the shot makes all three of these goals attributable to Brindley and not mere puck luck. These are talents that should continue to translate for Brindley over the remainder of the season and as he continues to move forward in his hockey career. From this perspective then, Brindley's eruption is very much real. 

 

Playmaking

Gavin Brindley's goalscoring has taken a lot of the focus, but he remains a solid playmaker with flashes of brilliance at the NCAA level. Brindley's best play of the second half undoubtedly is still one jaw-dropper he made against Minnesota to set up Adam Fantilli for a goal:  

This is an incredibly high level play, first the aggressiveness on the forecheck to take the puck away, let alone from an older and bigger defenseman, but then also the vision and patience to cut around the net, wait to draw in the defense, and then slip a cross-seam pass to the far side and hit Fantilli. I raved about it at the time and it is still an excellent play that will be atop his NHL Draft highlight reel this summer.

We're still waiting to see the vision displayed in that clip from Brindley appear on a more regular basis, but one trait showcased there comes up frequently in his playmaking skill, and that would be his work ethic. Internet scouts have raved about it for some time and it shows up on the tape. Brindley is a high motor player who outworks opponents, allowing him to be an effective forechecker even against larger opponents. It creates opportunities for his team, and sometimes he finishes these off himself. It's gotten him a couple greasy goals in the last few weeks, including one against Wisconsin: 

We get a quick flash of vision here from Brindley in making the pass to the open wing for Edwards, but then his motor takes over. Brindley crashes the net and despite his 5'9" size, he sticks his nose in the scrum in front and is able to get a piece of the puck and collect a goal for himself. The tenacity and intensity he shows in giving every shift his all is his greatest playmaking trait right now besides his skating (see next section), and they will continue to serve him well as his passing ability improves. 

Another asset in what is helping to pile up assists for Brindley is the shot we mentioned in the previous section. Even when the goalie gets a piece of it, the speed Brindley has on his shot can often help produce fortuitous rebounds for his team: 

This is another one-timer for Brindley that Moe is able to get across to and make a save on, but it is another shot that is just ripped by Brindley. That handicaps Moe's ability to catch it cleanly and the loose puck is waiting there for Samoskevich. Counts as an assist all the same for Brindley. 

 

Transition Game

The final area to talk about with Gavin Brindley's hot second half is his transition game. An undersized forward like Brindley is going to need to be able to outskate his bigger opposition and thankfully he's one of the better skaters on this Michigan team. The scouting community was mixed on Brindley's skating coming into the year, some praising it and others having concerns they wanted cleaned up. Now look, Brindley is not Jackson Hallum in terms of a burner, but he is plenty good enough as a skater to be a major weapon in transition at the NCAA level, and he's created a couple goals for Adam Fantilli based on his ability to get out in the rush and skate + his willingness to take the puck to the net. 

Brindley anticipated a breakout well to get out ahead of the play and get the lead feed for a breakaway on Friday against the Badgers: 

Rutger McGroarty snags the puck in the Michigan defensive zone and Brindley very quickly realizes what's going on here. He begins a hard charge forward and when the Wisconsin defender at the line falls over, it's a true breakaway chance. He is unable to stuff it by Moe but the rebound is left on a platter for Fantilli to scoop up. This play is an example of the assets that Brindley brings to the table in transition, the ability to play high in the offensive zone and be ready to get off to the races if the puck is turned over. It places pressure on the opposition and makes their defense think long and hard about rotating down into the zone or pinching hard at the line. 

That was a clean breakaway, whereas this next play is an example of Brindley doing damage in a true 2v2 rush and showing his total range of mobility as opposed to just straight-line speed: 

Brindley gets the first pass from Fantilli and exits the zone 2v2. Minnesota is sagging off and not playing a tight gap, giving Brindley plenty of space to work with, a big mistake. Brindley and Duke criss-cross and as Brindley swoops outside, he shows off the strength and power he gets on his edges as he makes the turn around the defenseman. It is the clearest example of Brindley being an NHL-level skater, being able to turn the corner on a defender while on the rush. His skating creates the chance, setting him up all alone in tight on Justen Close and though Brindley runs out of real estate, the rebound is again left for a waiting Adam Fantilli. Drive the net into a high-danger area and good things will happen. 

 

Conclusion

After looking over the clips I've presented, I do not think that Gavin Brindley's second half eruption has been a fluke. While I'm not willing to say he's going to continue scoring at 1.50 points-per-game, because that's a very lofty pace, I will say that what Brindley has demonstrated is that his increased production is all related to positive, repeatable habits. He has gotten goals and assists because he is a tenacious competitor who works hard every shift. That is going to continue, because it's been a feature of his game for years. Brindley has also gotten goals through terrific shots, which, when you watch his shooting motion, seem repeatable. The shooting talent is there, he just had bad luck putting them in the right spots.

Brindley also creates goals because of how his skating ability translates into the transition game, and again, that is a feature of his profile. His skills are leading to points, and he's not running up secondary assists where pucks are bouncing in off bodies. Of his 12 points in the second half, nine are primary points! When you watch the tape, that shows up, and now that Brindley's starting to find a groove and build confidence, it only feels like he's going to grow further and carry these attributes forward. An impact player blossoming before our eyes, much like Mackie Samoskevich did in the second half last season. The impact Brindley can make the remainder of the season will say a lot about how deep Michigan can go into the B1G and NCAA Tournaments this year. 

Comments

stephenrjking

February 8th, 2023 at 1:15 PM ^

It was a small play, but when Michigan was choking out the PSU Saturday win, Brindley had a terrific moment on the forecheck where he poked the puck past a PSU player on the halfboard and spun to get around him and gain control of the puck. 

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