2024 basketball roster scramble
george washington III
justin joyner
tre donaldson
Washington (right) is back in [Marc-Gregor Campredon]

Basketball Searchbits: Auburn Out Of Nowhere Comment Count

Brian April 12th, 2024 at 11:45 AM

ALL RIGHT FINE JUST HIRE A GUY OUT OF LEFT FIELD

Michigan's third assistant:

That tweet finishes with "…other Top150 recruits in Jordan Ross, Mikey Lewis and Zion Sensley." Also:

Josh Henschke reports that Joyner is indeed taking one of the three off-campus recruiting slots. That's not quite picking off the top assistant at Tennessee but it's not far off. Congrats to Rod Clark on his raise.

Henschke also reports that the two non-recruiting assistant slots are going to go to a couple of his FAU guys, so this seems like the best of both worlds. You have two guys who are well regarded as P5 recruiters, another guy who's from St Mary's and therefore speaks Australian, and two guys who helped build FAU into a top 50 program.

[After THE JUMP: chair filled, more on the way] 

THIRD CHAIR FILLED

Michigan now has three confirmed scholarship guys:

Washington played sparingly on a very bad team last year but a lot of freshmen get vastly better in year two. As Michigan strives to put together a roster, a chair filled with a reasonably high upside guy who probably isn't breaking the NIL bank seems like a good idea.

FILED UNDER NON-SPECULATIVE RECRUITS

The last post mentioned Auburn PG Aden Holloway in the speculative phone call section because he has deep family ties to Michigan, so let's take a big sip of coffee and check out the latest 24/7 transfer portal predictions:

image

That's the wrong Auburn point guard? Sophomore Tre Donaldson split time down the middle with Holloway this year (nobody on Auburn had more than 62% of their minutes and ten guys played at least a third of the time); Donaldson was lower usage than Holloway but a more efficient shooter (50/41/78); both his TO rate and assist rate were higher than Holloway's. Game sample:

Donaldson was very good as a pick and roll ball handler, very good as a spot-up shooter, and very bad at isolation he was forced into for a relatively large chunk of his shots (11%, which is 87th percentile). Unfortunately, jumpers off the bounce were over 60% of his shots last year. He was okay at these (eFG of 40%), but being just okay on dribble jumpers is inefficient offense.

You could read this one of two ways. One: cannot generate good shots. Two: was still pretty efficient overall despite a Synergy profile that suggests his ORTG should be sub-100. Think of the upside in a Dusty May offense that's been top 50 in eFG the last three years. 

On3's Joe Tipton is also hearing Michigan is likely here, so this is two established national guys asserting this will likely come to pass. There has to be some connection here we don't know about yet. 

Other guys who are setting up visits or have a lead group:

  • OSU CG Roddy Gayle Jr (106 ORTG on 25% usage, 51/28/83 shooting, 20 A rate, 19 TO rate) is setting up visits with Michigan and Georgia.
  • Morehead State PG Drew Thelwell (110 ORTG on 19% usage, 51/34/66, top 100 assist rate, 21 TO rate) has a rough top six with Michigan in it.
  • St Mary's PF Joshua Jefferson (110 ORTG on 23% usage, 54/28/72, DREB monster, elevated steal rate, coming off knee surgery) is setting up a visit in the wake of Michigan hiring Joyner.
  • Tulane SG Kolby King (110 ORTG on 19% usage, 56/37/74, 11 assist rate vs 16 TO rate) is also setting up a visit.
  • 2024 CG Justin Pippen (yes that Pippen) will be visiting this weekend, per 247's Davis Moseley. Pippen is a late riser who's shot up 24/7's rankings while others lag behind.

HAS RECEIVED A TEXT

More long, uh, list:

  • Oregon State PG Jordan Pope (110 ORTG on 26% usage, 50/37/88 shooting, real nice A:TO).

SPECULATIVE PERCENTAGES TIME

  • Vlad Goldin: 95%.
  • Tre Donaldson: off the board –> 80%. Two national guys saying they're hearing Michigan is pretty good.
  • Johnell Davis: 70% –> 60%: Seems like NIL will be a big factor and while May is going to try, I would not assume Davis's personal loyalty will win out when he's got one year to make bank before a pro career that doesn't seem like it'll be in the NBA.
  • George Washington III: 60% –> 100%. Withdrew from portal.
  • Khani Rooths: 60%.
  • Danny Wolf: 60%.
  • Connor Essegian: 50%.
  • Alijah Martin: 40%.
  • Aden Holloway: 40%.
  • Elijah Elliott/Ty Robinson/Lorenzo Cason: 40%.
  • Joshua Jefferson: off the board –> 40%. Joyner connection makes this more likely than most instances where M is in a top five.
  • Terrance Williams: 30%.
  • Dante Maddox: 10% –> 20%. Maddox says he wants to wrap up his recruitment by the end of April, which gives Michigan time to get a visit in. Maddox also mentioned that May recruited him out of high school, so there's a connection there.
  • Roddy Gayle Jr: off the board –> 20%.
  • Drew Thelwell: off the board –> 20%.
  • Kolby King: off the board –> 20%.
  • Justin Pippen: off the board –> 20%
  • Carey Booth: 20% –> 10%. M not mentioned in recent 247 article.
  • Brandon Garrison: 10%.
  • Eric Dailey: 10%.
  • Liam McNeeley: 1%.

SPECULATIVE ROSTER

We can put together something resembling a roster now.

PG: Tre Donaldson (Jr), Durral Brooks (Fr), Elijah Elliott (Fr)
SG: Jonnell Davis (Sr*), Connor Essegian (Jr), George Washinton III (So)
SF: Khani Rooths (Fr), Nimari Burnett (Jr*), Jace Howard (Sr*)
PF: Joshua Jefferson (Jr), Will Tschetter (Jr)
C: Vlad Goldin(Sr*), Danny Wolf (Jr)

That might be good?

Comments

Rufus X

April 12th, 2024 at 3:00 PM ^

Watched the first few minutes of the Tre Donaldson video highlights... Auburn has zero structured offense from what I could see.  All his made shots were with the other 4 guys on offense literally standing around the perimeter every single time.  

It doesn't really say much about Donaldson as a player, just an observation.

Joined: 10/29/2010

MGoPoints: 3997

bronxblue

April 12th, 2024 at 3:01 PM ^

I suspect UM will get a number of these guys but this is also starting to look and sound a bit like head coaching season where guys get their names floated out there but then head back to their current stops (or to new, non-UM stops) with larger NIL paydays.  I don't begrudge any of the players for doing it but I doubt UM gets 7-8 of the top 40 guys on the transfer market.

Joined: 11/22/2008

MGoPoints: 172172

TESOE

April 12th, 2024 at 3:34 PM ^

I won't drop names but there are several football players who can hoop. It's been a while since anyone has tried that, but this might be a good year for a mid to late (hopefully late) season add onto the bench. 

Joined: 09/21/2009

MGoPoints: 8572