Yesterday I supplied an update for softball, and today we will circle back on Michigan Baseball, which I haven't written about much since the season preview back in mid-February. The team is currently 20-15 overall and 6-3 in the Big Ten and outside the fringes of the NCAA Tournament bubble. Just like yesterday, we're going to follow the format of doing a recap of the season up to this point, talk about developments in the season from a personnel standpoint, and then what to watch for the rest of the way: 

 

A Short Season Recap 

Michigan started their season down in Arlington, TX, in the College Baseball Showdown against three Big 12 opponents. In the first game against a ranked Texas Tech team, Michigan held leads of 4-0, 5-1, and 6-3 throughout the game before heading into the ninth with a 6-5 lead. Willie Weiss was tasked with shutting the game down and proved unable to close it out, allowing the Red Raiders to walk it off. Michigan rebounded to hammer Kansas State the next night before dropping the final game of that weekend 6-1 to Oklahoma. It was a bit of an empty feeling only taking one of three, but Michigan showed they could battle. 

From there, the Wolverines handled UT-Arlington, Seton Hall, and FIU before heading to Boca Raton to take on FAU. In the first game against the Owls, pitching faltered yet again to blow a late lead. Michigan led 8-6 in the eighth, but the late inning arms couldn't get it done. They salvaged the series split with a 20-13 (yes, that was the real score) win the next night and then Michigan was off to the Keith LeClair Classic in Greenville, NC. They beat a ranked Maryland team 7-4, but dropped tight games to ECU and Indiana State after falling behind early in both. 

Tito Flores [JD Scott]

Michigan played a couple more P5 opponents on the road before heading home to Ann Arbor. They went to the Bluegrass State to take on Louisville, which included a memorable blizzard mid-game leading to the suspension of the contest. Michigan won the blizzard game 16-7 after it resumed, but dropped the other two. The last stop on the early season tour was Nashville, for a battle with #4 Vanderbilt. That was Michigan's best chance for a marquee victory and once again, they had it in their jaws before pitching fumbled it away. The Maize & Blue led 4-2 entering the bottom of the ninth, but Willie Weiss allowed a two-out double to tie it, and then Vandy won on a walk-off passed ball, 5-4. Not great! 

Back in Ann Arbor a few days later, the Wolverines played host to Dayton in a three-game series and swept them rather easily. A mid-week trip to Xavier ended in an 8-2 loss and after that, B1G play got going. Michigan is 6-3 in the B1G at the moment, losing 2 of 3 to Iowa, but taking 2 of 3 from Nebraska and sweeping MSU in lopsided fashion this past weekend. Those results are mostly fine, but there have been disappointments in the mid-week games. Against two seemingly easy opponents, Oakland and Purdue-Fort Wayne, Michigan dropped both at home, and both by multiple runs. They were also unable to be competitive down in South Bend against #10 Notre Dame. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: Positional Takeaways and the Stretch Run]

 

[James Coller]

How Michigan Got Here 

The Wolverines sit at 20-15 because their offense is still pretty good, but the pitching staff has held the team back. As you may have noticed in that summary, Michigan had multiple games where the offense did enough to win, handing leads against good teams to the bullpen, but the pitchers couldn't finish the games off. In terms of team strengths, the Wolverines are bolstered by a collection of six dangerous hitters: Clark Elliott, Joe Stewart, Jimmy Obertop, Matt Frey, Tito Flores, and Ted Burton. All six guys are hitting .271 or better, have OBPs of .369 or better, and OPS of .833 or better. Those six hitters all rank in the top 65 of B1G hitters sorted by batting average, and the top 59 hitters in the conference sorted by OPS. 

Of those hitters, Clark Elliott has been the story. The junior OF leads the team with a 1.079 OPS, having slugged seven homers and also having stolen seven bases. Three of his longballs came against MSU in one game last weekend: 

The scariest leadoff hitter in college baseball, Michigan's Clark Elliott, hit 3⃣home runs Friday night as #GoBlue took the series opener from Michigan State, 18-6, at Jackson Field. pic.twitter.com/HEP29GAxod

— Michigan Baseball (@umichbaseball) April 16, 2022

Elliott is the story, but Tito Flores and his 10 HRs are valuable. Same could be said for Ted Burton's eight and Matt Frey's seven. Those four are all in the top 25 of the conference in homers, and the team ranks 4th in the B1G in home runs. Michigan is not an elite offense in the B1G, but they are definitely in the upper half of the conference. The bottom of the order has held them back a bit, with Riley Bertram and Jack Van Remortel each starting quite a few games and lacking the same level of power. The final spot in the lineup has seen several candidates rise up to get a shot at it, including Jordon Rogers, Alex Fedje-Johnson, and Dylan Stanton, but all have been quite rough so far. 

While the hitting has been pretty good but not elite, the pitching has been very bad. The team ERA of 5.96 ranks 11th in the conference (out of 13), and opponents are hitting .284 off the Michigan pitching staff, which is 12th. Returning ace Cameron Weston, who was one of the conference's best pitchers last season, has struggled this year to the tune of a 4.63 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP. Strikeouts still look good at 52 in 44.1 IP, but opponents are getting far too many hits off of him. Connor O'Halloran has been a surprise good story in the rotation, with a 3.02 ERA and a decent 1.22 WHIP, filling the hole left behind by the departure of Steve Hajjar. Unfortunately, returning starter Jacob Denner has been battered (6.26 ERA, 1.61 WHIP) and was relegated to relief duty against MSU. 

[Paul Sherman]

If there are bright spots besides O'Halloran, it would be Chase Allen and Noah Rennard. Each has appeared in 16 games, doing whatever Erik Bakich needs them to, as both have closed out games (3 saves each), and also started games (2 starts each). Rennard has given up more hits but has better swing-and-miss stuff, posting a sub-3.00 ERA (with a 1.41 WHIP). Meanwhile Allen has surrendered harder contact but has been better at keeping runners off the bases. These two arms + O'Halloran are the reasons for optimism, as the remainder of the pitching staff is very grim. 

There are not enough pitchers who can get outs for Michigan right now beyond the small nucleus of Allen, Rennard, O'Halloran, and Weston. Walker Cleveland has been a mess (8.72 ERA), Willie Weiss has turned into a pumpkin and is now a walk machine, Logan Wood has surrendered *22 hits* in *12.1 innings*, and the group of Angelo Smith/Jake Keaser/Ahmad Haraji/Avery Goldensoph have all given up more hits than innings pitched as well.

The mid-week games, which tend to be a measure of the depth of your pitching staff, have been grisly (14 runs given up to Oakland, 8 given up to Xavier, 6 given up to PFW), precisely because there is no depth right now. The offense has been good, but not good enough to make up for the games where the pitching staff completely melts down. That has been the culprit thus far, and improvement will be needed to help this Michigan team get into the NCAAs. 

 

[Marc-Gregor Campredon]

The Stakes in the Stretch Run  

As it stands currently, the Wolverines are tied with Iowa for fourth in the B1G at 6-3, three-and-a-half games back from 11-1 Rutgers, who lead the conference. The Scarlet Knights and Wolverines will play three games to close out the regular season, so it remains feasible that Michigan could catch them. The next little stretch is pivotal, as the coming three weekends are nine games against 2-8 Ohio State, 4-6 Purdue, and 2-7 Indiana. If Michigan can run the table (or go 8-1) in those games, they'd have a real crack at the conference crown heading into the last two weekends, when the quality of competition ramps up with 7-2 Maryland and then Rutgers. 

The B1G is typically a 3-5 bid league, so staying near the top of the conference is crucial. Right now, Michigan is on the wrong side of the tourney picture and not immediately on the bubble either. Those ugly mid-week losses to mid-majors have weighed them down, and the strength of schedule is not good. Blowing both the Texas Tech and Vandy games, which would've given Michigan solid victories, has seriously hurt the Wolverines' resume. The B1G is not a power conference and you're not going to pick up meaningful wins beating MSU or Indiana. 

D1 Baseball's tournament projection has the B1G currently with only two teams in the field, Maryland and Rutgers. As stated previously, those two teams conclude Michigan's regular season schedule, and so the Wolverines must do well in those games to have a shot at an at-large bid. And of course, going 4-2 or something across those six games won't get it done if Michigan loses games to the bottom feeder B1G teams, or continues to drop midweek games (they still have Youngstown St and Wright St on the schedule). It's going to take a hot streak the rest of the way to get Michigan into the bubble conversation. 

Of course, the B1G still has its autobid from the B1G Baseball Tournament, which is held over Memorial Day weekend. Eight teams head to Omaha for a double elimination bracket, which Michigan is currently in position to qualify for. Winning that would get the Wolverines into the NCAA Tournament, and for the moment, that seems like a more feasible route to appearing in the big dance than the at-large. Either way, though, Michigan's hitters need to continue to produce and they're going to need to find more pitchers to get outs.