​The last words I wrote from the Denver Breakdown were "But I'm fairly certainly they'll never have a team like this ever again." Last year was supposed to be THE YEAR. It was not. This year is not THE YEAR. Or is it? Last year Michigan had seven (!) first round draft picks, surrounded by multiple other draft picks, supported by multiple super seniors that had been through wars. This year Michigan has four first round draft picks (plus two more who will be in July, including a top two superstar), surrounded by multiple other draft picks, and a few contributing upperclassmen.

The difference is experience. Last year, only three of Michigan's top fifteen point-getters were freshmen, and their stars were mostly all in their second season. This year, six of Michigan's top nine scorers are freshmen...the other three are sophomores. That's a lot of youth. But what did Paul tell Timothy? "Let no man despise thy youth"? Alright. Sold.

Plus, a week's worth of Teeth Jokes...

 

The Field

Michigan’s Regional (Allentown, PA )

(1) Michigan, (2) Penn State, (3) Michigan Tech, (4) Colgate : Wow. If you really squint, you might be able to see last year's Allentown Regional. Thanks to HOCKEY CHAOS, Michigan again draws an autobid ranked in the 20s in Pairwise. Colgate de-plaqued two top ten teams to whiten their chances of making the Tournament. They play the role of AIC. Penn State is the lowest two seed, but must be in this regional thanks to hosting the hosting rule. Michigan has seen them plenty this season and has played very well against them 2-3 times. The Ice Lions sound a little like last year's St Cloud team. Run 'n Gun and hope not to give up as many. Finally, Michigan's three seed is ALEX'S NEMESIS! The last time Michigan saw Michigan Tech...no one scored a goal...including overtime. Woof. Pun intended! The Huskies don't score very much, and they give up even less. Lol Quinnipiac! Is this 2022 or 2023? New sweaters, same teams.

 

(1) Michigan vs (4) Colgate

Team	Corsi Rank	PP%	PK%	Players Drafted	Skaters >.75 ppg	GAA	Save%	Record in last 5 games	KRACH Prob of winning
Colgate	34	21%	84%	2	2	2.31	.918	5-0	18.4%
Michigan	15	22%	77%	13 (11+2)	7	3.08	.907	4-1	81.6%

[David Wilcomes]

Things Michigan Needs to Do Against (because David likes stealing Alex's thunder from the full preview on Friday):

1. ATTACK! Did I take the same three bullets from last season? Maaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaybe. But, if the regional is the very similar, then the points of emphasis will be as well. Don't let the game shorten and get even more random. Michigan is loaded with NHL shooters and puck movers. Move the puck and shoot! Go get the game and drill the Flossers Raiders early and often. Michigan took the game to AIC last season and it was all but over in the second period. Don't let Carter Gylander Goalie you. He's been fine this season and is coming off very good performances against Quinnipiac and Harvard. If you can get an early goal or two, you can create a cavity and their defense won't be able to root around him, elongating the uncertainty.

2. Play With Underdog Intensity. Again, Michigan has taken a couple of weaker opponents a bit too lightly at times (Wisconsin, Notre Dame). However, they came out ON FIRE against Ohio State and it completely changed the trajectory of the game. Once they took the fight to Minnesota in the second period, the game changed as well. This seems to also be constant narrative with Michigan. Play hard and take the game to the opponent. While this seems simple and easy, it hasn't always been for this team this season.

3. Don't Take A Major...or other penalties. Lol. This is just a constant. When Michigan stays out of the box -like the last two games- they've played much better. Also, the Tooth-Cleaners have good special teams numbers and Michigan has had issues on the penalty kill at times. If this game is mostly played at 5v5, it takes away a potential advantage for the underdog. Plus, uh, a five minute power play and losing a skater for the game is not a great idea when the season is on the line. Michigan has done a much better job of that lately. Keep it up.

Final Thoughts: This is single elimination hockey. The reality is that you need to play well and not be super unlucky...especially when you get a favorable draw. Michigan has played their two best games of the season in their last two games. They HAWT. There's always nits to pick, but this team looks ready. It looks like they have the bracket. On paper, this is a walk-over. But..."That's why they play the games!" Do these things and Michigan should be crowned with a tournament win.

Alex's Take: Getting the first goal is always so big in this kind of game. You don't want to play from behind on a team that's simply gonna try to win 2-1, hoping they survive a shooting gallery. If Michigan takes a 2-0 lead, hard to see Colgate coming from behind in that situation (and this analysis applies to Michigan Tech too in a regional final). Get the first goal, force Colgate to loosen their defensive screws due to score effects, and then toast them with your superior skill and skating. Let your shooters do the work... you'll have chances, just gotta finish 'em. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: All of the games that don't involve Michigan]

 

[Bill Rapai]

Michigan’s Other Regional Game:

(2) Penn State vs (3) Michigan Tech

Team	Corsi Rank	PP%	PK%	Players Drafted	Skaters >.75 ppg	GAA	Save%	Record in last 5 games	KRACH Prob of winning
Michigan Tech	23	13%	86%	2	2	1.99	.929	3-2	45%
Penn State	8	15%	77%	2	2	2.52	.913	2-3	55%

David’s Take: Penn State is going to bring folks. And then add more. They're going to stuff the place with WE ARE PENN STATE. If they score early, it's going to get tough on Michigan Tech. If Blake Pietila holds the crease, the Ice Lions have a tendency to melt. The first period is key. Either way, Michigan gets an interesting draw. Good goalies are the scariest thing in single elimination hockey. Michigan Tech has the difference. Are you ready for this, Alex?

Alex’s Take: I think I'm on the same side as you, PSU is a decent team, we've seen them before. They were also 10-10 in regulation with 4 OT/SOLs (no OTWs) in the B1G, and a negative goal differential in those games. They're here because they know how to game PWR by scheduling a cupcake non-conference and then they ran the table against that non-con. Michigan Tech is the opposite, an easy conference schedule and a tougher non-con, they got bombed by WMU but beat BU and MSU, a team that tied PSU in the conference standings. I think these are pretty equivalent squads so I'll side with Tech and their goal prevention, which I like to withstand the quantity over quality approach to offense from PSU. 

Regional Winner - David: All things considered, this is a very nice draw for Michigan. Penn State needs Michigan Tech's goalie, and Michigan Tech needs Penn State's offense. Unfortunately for both, neither is possible. Michigan is the best team in Allentown. We'll see if they are in Tampa.

Regional Winner - Alex: I like doing this section of each region for every team besides Michigan because at the end of the day it doesn't really matter to me and I know predicting this cursed tournament is a mostly hopeless endeavor. But when it comes to Michigan, I have to balance emotion, desire, and my inclinations to be as accurate as possible when dealing with the team I cover. I don't love the matchup I've drawn up with the Wolverines vs. the in-state MTU Huskies... they're a lot like a Notre Dame team that has given Michigan trouble over the years, and even gave them trouble this very season. It will force the Wolverines to dig deep but after watching the past two weekends, both the way the team played but also Erik Portillo, I think they have it in them. After the Wisconsin weekend I was probably going to pick Michigan to flame out in this event early, but I've seen enough to believe, so let's go with it. Back-to-back Frozen Fours!!!

 

[David Wilcomes]

Bridgeport, CT Regional

(1) Quinnipiac, (2) Harvard, (3) Ohio State, (4) Merrimack: Team that Ain't Played Nobody, but Beats Errybody They Play will face the last at-large bid in the tournament that had BU on the ropes. It's the Return of the 'Mack for their 3rd appearance ever and first since 2011. The recently vanquished Buckeyes draw the Sports Nerds from Ha'vahd. Ohio State is good at everything, but not quite elite. The Crimson have been great all year, but have struggled with Michigan and...Colgate. Interesting.

(1) Quinnipiac vs (4) Merrimack

Team	Corsi Rank	PP%	PK%	Players Drafted	Skaters >.75 ppg	GAA	Save%	Record in last 5 games	KRACH Prob of winning
Merrimack	30	13%	82%	3	2	2.20	.916	4-1	27.4%
Quinnipiac	2	23%	85%	2	6	1.52	.929	4-1	72.6%

David’s Take: The Monitor Haters have been using a true alternating goalie routine. Each guy has played two of the last four games. If the rotation holds, it will be Zachary Borgiel. His numbers are slightly better than his partner's, Hugo Ollas. The Bobcats have won 30 (!) games this season. Before visiting the dentist last Friday night, they hadn't lost since mid-January. Another streak starts. Quinnipiac sinks the Merrimack.

Alex’s Take: Last tournament 1s went 4-0 against 4s for the first time since 2005. There's normally always a 1v4 upset. In fact, the rate of 4s beating 1s is higher than the rate of 3s beating 2s(!!) over the past eight tournaments (since the inception of the B1G). I feel like I have to pick an upset somewhere, and this is the one I'm going with. Quinnipiac has the cartoon stats from playing in the conference they compete against, sure, but you have to pare beyond that and examine the non-ECAC games. QPac played five games against Hockey East opponents, going 3-1-1 with a +5 goal differential. Those games were against Maine x2, BC, UMass, and UCONN and Merrimack is better than all of those teams, significantly so for everyone besides UCONN. Merrimack's got a veteran team, they play in a power conference, and have a pair of goalies that are very solid. It's their first tournament appearance in 12 years and third ever... a generational moment for this program and we shouldn't underestimate that. Warriors to the Regional Final!!

 

Where you belong!! [Bill Rapai]

(2) Harvard vs (3) Ohio State

Team	Corsi Rank	PP%	PK%	Players Drafted	Skaters >.75 ppg	GAA	Save%	Record in last 5 games	KRACH Prob of winning
Ohio State	6	22%	90%	3	3	2.33	.918	2-3	51.7%
Harvard	9	24%	82%	15	6	2.05	.925	4-1	48.3

David’s Take: Wow. Game of the first round? Harvard is the loser in the Penn State Hosts at Allentown saga. They numerically deserve Michigan Tech, but draw the team that has given both Michigan and Minnesota fits all year. Both teams are aces on special teams. Both teams have gotten good goaltending. Ohio State has played better competition, but Harvard is stacked with NHL selections. I'm not picking Ohio State. Roll Crimson Not Tide!

Alex’s Take: Harvard has to be doing a lot of preparation for this game, focusing on how they can beat the Buckeyes' offensive zone forecheck. They don't have the most veteran defensive group, but it is a very talented one. The Crimson also may well have an edge in net, with Mitchell Gibson opposing Jakub Dobeš. The biggest matchup is probably OSU's penalty kill against Harvard's PP and if the Crimson can find a way to get a goal or two by Dobeš on the man advantage, they have a great chance to win this game. I'm fading the ECAC hard as a principle, but Harvard is only somewhat of an ECAC team, with lots of talent (Matthew Coronato and Sean Farrell are awesome) and they play a tough non-conference schedule. I'll throw our ECAC friends a bone and pick Harvard here. 

Regional Winner - David: Alex says he's the #1 QPac Disrespector. I'm not quite there, yet. Harvard has scored one goal against the Pollsters in two clear losses. Is it Revenge Time for the boys in red? No, but if you don't think that the Q-Cats aren't looking for revenge in a potential National Semifinal rematch against Michigan, you're crazy. They'll get their shot. 

Regional Winner - Alex: In a surprising Regional Final of Harvard and Merrimack, the northeast is guaranteed to have a Frozen four team after going 0fer last year. I think Merrimack will be spent after pulling the big upset in the previous round and I like betting on talent here, so let's go with Harvard. They ride their three 20+ goalscorers to solve Merrimack's goaltending and punch their tickets to Tampa. 

 

[David Wilcomes]

Fargo, ND Regional

(1) Minnesota, (2) St. Cloud State, (3) Minnesota State, (4) Canisius: Minnesota is the best team in the country (though they don't have QUITE as strong a claim as they did before Saturday night). They are 2022 Michigan. No real holes. NHL talent mixed with plenty of experience at the blue line and in net. They are also loaded with NHL-bound freshmen. This is their THE YEAR. St Cloud was unstoppable in the first half of the season...and then very stoppable in the second half. They will score goals! Minnesota State doesn't have Dryden McKay anymore, but they still are an experienced, well-coached team that will give anyone fits. Canisius...will also be there. But good for them! This is their second time ever. Go Griffs!

(2) St. Cloud State vs (3) Minnesota State

Team	Corsi Rank	PP%	PK%	Players Drafted	Skaters >.75 ppg	GAA	Save%	Record in last 5 games	KRACH Prob of winning
Minnesota State	1	28%	83%	0	4	1.81	.916	5-0	46.6%
St Cloud State	28	25%	76%	4	6	2.06	.920	4-1	53.4%

David’s Take: If OSU/Harvard is the best matchup of the first round, this is 1A. Minnesota Not So Nice? Probably not. They're all nice. Even though the Screaming Eagles don't play nobody, they've been hot in the second half and had to rescue their season by scoring TWO goals with the Extra Attacker just to make it here. St Cloud might be more impressive, especially with whom they have played and beaten, but Hayden Fox's crew just seems to do everything right. Purple and Gold move on!

Alex’s Take: St. Cloud State has become a perennial tournament team in the past decade, this being their ninth tourney appearance in ten seasons, only missing in 2017. They transitioned from the Motzko era to Brett Larson very well and just keep chugging along in the NCHC. The one thing that has remained prickly for them is tournament success, with three successive legendary chokes as the 2nd, 1st, and 1st overall seeds, losing improbably in the first round each time. But, they did make the title game in 2021, so it's not all #narrative. I like this team a lot, I like that they took the season series from Denver, I like that they have a .920 goalie in a power conference, I like that all six of their top scorers are upperclassmen. And they're coming in hot. 

Minnesota State is a team that's hard to get a feel for (as always) due to strength of schedule. They have talented players who are among the most sought after UDFAs once the season ends and plenty of pedigree coming off back-to-back Frozen Fours. However, this is still a team that was two goals in the final three minutes on Saturday from being out of the tournament entirely. Their biggest weakness is also a goalie. I like the Mavericks, but I'm going to take the team with the better goalie and who won both H2H matchups between these teams back in October. St. Cloud to the Regional Final! 

 

 

[Marc-Gregor Campredon]

(1) Minnesota vs (4) Canisius

Team	Corsi Rank	PP%	PK%	Players Drafted	Skaters >.75 ppg	GAA	Save%	Record in last 5 games	KRACH Prob of winning
Canisius	41	23%	80%	0	2	2.43	.925	4-1	8.7%
Minnesota	17	25%	83%	14	4	2.02	.927	4-1	91.3%

David’s Take: Even Cinderella is like "Ummmmmmmmmm." Sure, Plink-O and randomness. Somewhere, Rick Moranis is yelling "ONE TIME." My grandfather rooted for Canisius. I went to Canisius games when I was a kid. They'll always hold a special place with me. This is only their second time in the tournament. They'll be absolutely ready for this game. But...no. It's not happening. It probably won't even be close. Minnesota.

Alex’s Take: I'd put the probability of Canisius winning this game at 5% or under, even more lopsided than the KRACH probabilities. Canisius was 4th in Atlantic Hockey, they got swept pretty solidly by Penn State. They could win in the sense that anything is possible but it's one of the most lopsided games in the tournament on paper in a long time. Minnesota cannot lose this game and in all likelihood, they won't. 

Regional Winner - David: As much as I do admire Minnesota State and respect how much they've done and the program they've built, last year was THE YEAR for them. They got so close, but could not light the cigar. Similarly, they will give Minnesota everything they want, but the Gophers dig holes way too deep. Minnesota's dream doesn't die in Fargo.

Regional Winner - Alex: Minnesota vs. St. Cloud State would be a dream final to me, one where the narratives write themselves. It would also be a rematch, as the teams split (though Minnesota's win was in OT) back in early January. The Gophers did control those two games in terms of shot attempts, though Jaxon Castor's shutout in the first game provides a clear roadmap for St. Cloud to win. I wouldn't be surprised at all if either team won, but I'll stick with the best team and the one with the better underlying numbers, the Golden Gophers. 

 

[Patrick Barron]

Manchester, NH Regional

(1) Denver, (2) Boston University, (3) Western Michigan, (4) Cornell: The defending champions don't look like they've fallen off much, if at all. Boston University has clearly taken up the mantle of Wizard Sorcerers from the departed Duluth Bulldogs, coming back from the dead throughout the Hockey East tournament...and even before that. Western Michigan was stampeding to a strong season before some Tigers caught their toes hooves. Cornell is the third at-large bid for the ECAC?! They can't be TOO bad, then...can they? This regional looks pretty stacked.

(2) Boston University vs (3) Western Michigan

Team	Corsi Rank	PP%	PK%	Players Drafted	Skaters >.75 ppg	GAA	Save%	Record in last 5 games	KRACH Prob of winning
Western Michigan	13	24%	76%	3	5	2.45	.907	2-3	42.9%
Boston University	11	20%	80%	12	8	2.51	.912	5-0	57.1%

David’s Take: Western is really solid team, but I think they can be had on the back end. BU has dudes a-plenty, both young and old. If the Broncos drew a different 2 seed, it might go better for them. No way that Duluth passes the Magic Hat to a team that does claim at least one tournament win. Terriers get the bone.

Alex’s Take: This is a toughhhh draw for Boston U. As the 5th overall team, they ought to get the last 3 seed, which by PWR was Western Michigan, but I'd argue they're a much better team than you'd expect to get in this slot. WMU was 10th with a very real chance of getting on the two line entering the NCHC Tournament. Then they crashed hard and got swept at home by Colorado College, but I think the Broncos are a much better team than that. WMU finished 2nd in the NCHC, ahead of St. Cloud, a team I talked up earlier. They're good! And now they have to face Boston U, who is also good.

The Terriers didn't get a ton of style points in winning the Hockey East Tournament, but they got it done. I love their mix of future NHL players (how about the year that Lane Hutson is having?) with upperclassmen who have thrived within the program. The only thing that worries me a bit is the goaltending, as Drew Commesso's .912 is fine, but not particularly inspiring. Vinny Duplessis hasn't been a ton better. Thankfully, Cameron Rowe of WMU has a .907, so expect some scoring. I actually think this one is going to OT, where BU yet again pulls it out of the hat. 

 

These guys again [David Wilcomes]

(1) Denver vs (4) Cornell 

Team	Corsi Rank	PP%	PK%	Players Drafted	Skaters >.75 ppg	GAA	Save%	Record in last 5 games	KRACH Prob of winning
Cornell	4	26%	82%	2	3	1.76	.913	4-1	30.7%
Denver	7	27%	78%	12	6	2.19	.915	4-1	69.3%

David’s Take: I know the rule states that Not All One Seeds Shall Advance...until last year. So, here we are. Will it be two years in a row? It kinda feels like it. The Massive Maroon had a nice season, but didn't do as much when they played better teams (though they did knock off QPac once, 4-0). Denver has been a very good team all season. They have the scorers, defenders, and experience. Could a bad bounce bite them? Sure. But they will most likely be too far ahead for it matter. Pioneers make it to weekend.

Alex’s Take: Denver is heating up at the right time. I know that they got upset by Colorado College on Friday in the NCHC Frozen Faceoff semifinals, but the Pioneers had won six straight prior to that and have won 11 of 13, all in regulation. They're the defending national champions, with quite a few of the same characters from last season, plus a transfer in Casey Dornbach, who has had a great year. Jackson, MI, native Carter Mazur is a killer with 22 goals and Magnus Chrona has improved over last season in net. I like this team a lot, including their coach David Carle. Cornell is in a conference I don't like and got swept by Duluth, a team Denver went 3-1 against. Denver's played the tougher schedule and has better metrics than Cornell against that schedule. I think the Pioneers go sailing through to the next round here. 

Regional Winner - David: Michigan/Penn State and Minnesota/Either Other Minnesota School would also be intriguing matchups, but Denver/BU seems potentially like the best game of the entire weekend. There are no wrong answers on where to go in this contest. Both teams are pretty even, however I look at it. I want to say that maybe Denver is a little better, so fire up the spells and enchantments! Boston U does some ritualistic ridiculousness in Salem between games and cackles their way to Florida to face...Minnesota? What is this, '76? Bring back O'Callahan and McClanahan!

Regional Winner - Alex: Denver vs. BU is one heck of a star-studded clash. That's a fun regional final between two really good teams, two squads from power conferences, control play, have solid special teams, similar goaltending, and similar levels of talent. Not much separates these two right on down the line, but Denver would be favored in KRACH probabilities. I think Denver is probably the better team but you know what, I think their tournament win streak has gotta come to an end at some point. BU hasn't been to the Frozen Four since Jack Eichel was there in 2015 and it's about time they get it done. Terriers are going sunbathing in Tampa!