2021-22 Michigan Hockey Season Preview Part 4: Opponents, Predictions, and Wrap
Previously: Part 1 (Centers and Maybe Centers), Part 2 (Wingers), Part 3 (Defense & Goalies), Season Preview HockeyCast
Over the past week and a half I've been slowly rolling out my Michigan Hockey Season preview. Over the first three installments we were breaking down the roster, and today we come to the final piece of the puzzle. In this article we will instead be focusing on the rest of the conference, as well as Michigan's schedule more broadly. Then, at the end, we will make a few predictions, and wrap up the preview. Let's start by analyzing the B1G, which I have broken down into tiers:
Tier I: The Contenders - Minnesota and Michigan
Michigan
The rest of the preview articles have covered Michigan extensively, so no need to go in depth here.
Minnesota
Last season: 2nd in B1G, 24-7 (16-6), lost in NCAA Regional Final
Additions: Chaz Lucius, Matthew Knies, Rhett Pitlick, Aaron Huglen, Tristan Broz
Subtractions: Sampo Ranta, Scott Reedy, Brandon McManus, Colin Munson, Cal Burke
Minnesota was a terrific team last season, finishing 16-6 in the conference and 24-7 overall, losing out on the B1G regular season crown but they snagged the BTT title before being awarded a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. They flicked Nebraska-Omaha aside but then were blanked by in-state rival Minnesota State to come up a game short of the Frozen Four. Most of that team’s core returns, and they add some real talent to the mix.
The Gophers had a great defensive corps and goaltender last season and everybody in that group returns. Old Friend/New Enemy Jack LaFontaine returned to school and he was marvelous last season, posting a .934 SV% and winning B1G Goaltender of the Year honors. The defense in front of him is talented and veteran, with all six starters returning and that includes NHL first rounder Ryan Johnson (BUF) and second rounders Jackson LaCombe (ANA) and Brock Faber (LAK). Throw in a pair of late rounders in Mike Koster (TOR) and Ben Brinkman (DAL), and you’ve got a defense with six returning starters and five NHL draft picks. They’re seasoned, athletic, and can play in both ends of the ice.
The forward corps lost some real pieces, bidding adieu to their #1, #5, and #6 scorers from last season in Sampo Raanta, Scott Reedy, and Brandon McManus, which will definitely hurt, but the recruiting is good enough that there’s reason to believe they can fill the holes adequately. The Gophers bring in the most talented non-Wolverine to play in the B1G this season, Chaz Lucius, a goalscoring centerman who slipped out of the lottery but was still a solid first rounder of Winnipeg. They also bring in Toronto’s second rounder, Matthew Knies, a scrappy around-the-net winger, and Pittsburgh’s second rounder, Tristan Broz, a creative playmaking forward. Oh, and two additional late rounders, Rhett Pitlick and Aaron Huglen, join the program. The talent is flowing into Minneapolis.
That crop of good freshman join what remains from last season’s top six, notably Sammy Walker, Blake McLaughlin, and Ben Meyers. There was a considerable drop off from the top six to the bottom six last year, so Minnesota will need some of those young guys to step up and plug those holes or else there may be offensive problems. That’s probably the biggest question with this team.
The Upshot: Minnesota is Michigan’s lone competitor for the B1G crown. I think Michigan is a better team than Minnesota, but the presence of Minnesota means Michigan can’t afford to mess around like they did last year. This Minnesota team has such a high floor by returning its defense + JLF. They’re going to rack up wins on a consistent basis. I have some questions about the offense, particularly in replacing an electric presence like Sampo Raanta was, but this is a team with the talent, experience, and coaching to hang with the Wolverines, and win consistently enough to make the regular season chase interesting. Bob Motzko is a great coach and Minnesota should have a great team. Not talented on Michigan’s level, but should Michigan slip up, Minnesota will be right there to zip past them. A top two seed in the NCAA Tournament is likely for the Gophers.
[AFTER THE JUMP: The teams in the conference get worse]
Tier II: Not a Contender, but Contending for a Tourney Bid - Notre Dame
These guys are still annoying [James Coller]
Notre Dame
Last Season: 4th in B1G, 14-13-2, (11-8-3-2), made NCAA Tournament
Additions: Jack Adams, Chase Blackmun, Adam Karashik, Matt Galajda, Justin Janicke, Hunter Strand
Subtractions: Dylan St. Cyr, Alex Steeves, Colin Theisen, Michael Graham, Matt Hellickson, Nate Clurman
Last season was not the best Notre Dame team under Jeff Jackson, or one up to the caliber that we are used to seeing in South Bend. They were still solid, finishing 14-13-2, but they never seriously challenged for the conference title. The NCAA gave the Irish a generous tournament bid, but then karma gave it right back, as like Michigan, ND saw their tourney berth wiped out by a COVID-19 outbreak before the first game could begin.
Notre Dame’s defense and goaltending were not up to the program standard in 2020-21, allowing well over 2.5 goals per game despite playing their usual defensive style. The Irish leaned on Dylan St. Cyr in net, but he was not able to replicate Cale Morris’ dominant presence, though the diminutive goalie posted solid statistics. Offensively they were alright, but offense is never going to be a Notre Dame team’s strength.
Jackson headed into the offseason looking to plug some holes and he hit the portal with a vengeance. The most immediate hole is the one in the crease, with St. Cyr departing, leaving Ryan Bischel as the lone option in net. Bischel posted dramatically worse numbers than St. Cyr, and Jackson knew another option was necessary. He went out and got Matt Galajda, who was the starter for Cornell from 2018 to 2020, posting three >.920 SV% seasons before the Ivies canceled last season. His numbers were unquestionably inflated by playing in the ECAC and for a team like Cornell, but the style of play between the Irish and the Big Red is similar and Galajda would appear to be the same as St. Cyr at worst, and potentially an upgrade.
ND lost a pair of regular defensemen in Matt Hellickson and Nate Clurman, but they reeled in Chase Blackmun and Adam Karashik from UMass-Lowell and UCONN, respectively. Both were regular players at those schools and bring with them solid experience, likely to slot in as starters. Returning Nick Leivermann and Spencer Stastney helps, too, and this team should be rock solid on the blue line.
The forwards saw leading scorer Alex Steeves exit, as well as Colin Theisen and Michael Graham. Finding a replacement for Steeves is difficult, but forward depth should be solid, with ND adding Jack Adams, who was a good player for Union before injuries hit, and two freshmen, Justin Janicke (7th rounder of Seattle) and Hunter Strand (good in the USHL). Both Slaggerts return, as does most of their scoring production, but the Steeves exit looms.
The Upshot: Overall, I like Notre Dame’s ability to be a defensive iron press like usual, and perhaps better than last season. They return four of their top six defensemen and add two veterans who should fit the system and add a veteran goalie with lots of quality production in his past. My question: can this team score enough, and do they have an offensive go-to guy? Alex Steeves wasn’t a star, but he was a >1.00 PPG player who landed a pro contract. More crucially, he was the only player to score more than eight goals on last year’s team (15). I can’t help but think this Notre Dame team might lose a lot of 2-1 games. Or they could win a lot of 2-1 games, because low scoring games are pretty random, something Jeff Jackson has known for a long time.
Ultimately, I see a team that does fine against easier foes, but they don’t have an offense to hang with Minnesota and Michigan, while not having a defense that’s noticeably better than either of those two teams. I think they’ll straddle .500 or be slightly above it, like last season, and maybe they’ll get another fortunate NCAA Tournament bid.
Tier III: Decent rebuilding teams – PSU and Wisconsin
Losing Caufield is a big blow for Wisconsin [JD Scott]
Wisconsin
Last Season: 1st in B1G, 20-10-1, (16-5-1-2), lost in NCAA Tournament first round
Additions: Corson Ceulemans, Daniel Laatsch, Zach Urdahl, Brayden Morrison, Jake Martin, Liam Malmquist, Cayden Brown
Subtractions: Cole Caufield, Dylan Holloway, Linus Weissbach, Ty Pelton-Byce, Ty Emberson
Tony Granato finally converted on all that talent in winning the regular season title last year and snaring a #1 seed in the tourney, but the players who made last season special are, in the words of Rick Pitino, not walking through that door. The Badgers lose 55% of their goals from last season and that understates the impact that two players like Cole Caufield and Dylan Holloway had on this team. Those were elite, line-driving players who were NHL lottery picks. Caufield left Wisconsin and went straight to the NHL, where he had an instant impact and scored huge goals in the Stanley Cup playoffs, helping Montreal shock the world and reach the finals. Replacements for players like that don’t grow on trees.
For the record, they brought in a solid recruiting class. Corson Ceulemans went in the late first round to Columbus, and Daniel Laatsch was a late round pick. They also bring in a pair of guys with NHL pedigree, Brayden Morrison, son of Michigan great Brendan Morrison, and Cayden Brown, son of NHLer Jeff Brown. Neither were draft picks, though. The problem is that a recruiting class I call “solid” is not good enough to immediately patch the holes that have opened in losing the talent they did, and therefore it’s difficult to see Wisconsin as a threat in the B1G this season.
I think the defensive side of the ice should be pretty good. Losing Ty Emberson hurts, but Ceulemans and Laatsch should solve any problems, and I’m very high on returning goaltender Cameron Rowe, who was a quietly huge part of Wisconsin’s season last year. Tyler Inamoto also returns as a veteran leader on the back end. It’s strange to think that two years after playing all-out 1980s firewagon hockey, Wisconsin could be a defensively-minded team this season.
Offensively, there are still a few solid players for the Badgers. Tarek Baker, Owen Lindmark, Jack Gorniak, Brock Caufield, and Roman Ahcan all scored more than 10 points last season and filled out key roles in the top nine. The problem is that those were all complementary players, players who made Caufield and Holloway better, but it was the two big dogs who drove the offense and now they’re not around anymore. I like the opportunity for Matty De St. Phalle and Sam Stange to take steps forward, but the chance that those two players are line-drivers in year two is not high, either. Figuring out where the offense for Wisconsin is going to come from is a difficult question right now.
The Upshot: Wisconsin looks like a .500 team to me. They have some talent and some experienced players. The Badgers should have a good goalie and fine coaching, but this team is not on Michigan or Minnesota’s level, and I think a notch below Notre Dame, honestly. They lost a ton of impact players, including all of the stars who were responsible for last season without any obvious replacements. It’s a rebuilding year of sorts, but they also shouldn’t be abject, and not a team you can take the night off against.
Penn State: not as good as they used to be [JD Scott]
Penn State
Last season: 5th in B1G, 10-12-0 (5-10-2-1), missed NCAA Tournament
Additions: Carson Dyck, Simon Mack, Ryan Kirwan, Ben Schoen, Danny Dzhaniyev, Ben Copeland
Subtractions: Alex Limoges, Tim Doherty, Aarne Talvitie, Evan Bell, Sam Sternschein
2020-21 represented a significant fall for PSU from the lofty standard recently established under Guy Gadowsky, going from tourney competitor to a sub-.500 team in conference. Some of that was predictable attrition after key players graduated in the spring of 2020, and last season represented a rebuilding season. Surprisingly, this season appears to be another rebuilding year, as PSU loses three of their top five scorers from 2020-21 in Alex Limoges, Tim Doherty, and Aarne Talvitie.
Last season was characterized by poor offense, unusual for a team with normally great scoring that bases its strategic game around generating a high volume of chances. They weren’t a bad offense, merely pedestrian, and when combined with the usually leaky defense, that spelled trouble. Losing three important scorers won’t help and it’s not clear who the line-drivers on offense will be. They add Ben Copeland from Colorado College, but he’s simply a solid top six option, not an impact forward. None of their incoming freshmen forwards were drafted. That doesn’t mean they won’t find productive players out of their additions, but it does raise questions about the ability to quickly plug and play and see a considerably improved offense.
I do like the prospect that the Nittany Lions could improve defensively. It took them a little while to land on Oskar Autio as their starting goalie, but he was clearly better than the other options. A full year with him as the unquestioned #1 will be good, even if he’s not on Peyton Jones’ level in terms of saving the Grade A chances that their playing style cedes. An improving Autio along with a defense that rolls over Mason Snell and Jimmy Dowd Jr. is a reason for optimism.
But does this have the complexion of a team that’s in the upper group of the conference? Doesn’t feel like it to me. Alex Limoges is a big loss, the only Lion to score goals in double figures last year, and again, they aren’t bringing in the kind of players you’d want to see to expect considerable improvement. It’s reasonable to hope for progression from Kevin Wall and Connor McMenamin, who were underclassmen last season and now are moving into their junior year, but it’s going to take a big leap for PSU to move into the position of a team seriously contending for a B1G crown or a tourney bid.
The Upshot: Another rebuilding year of sorts. Some of their young forwards show flashes and the defense does improve more, but they finish in the 20-30 range in PWR and never challenge Michigan or Minnesota for the B1G crown.
Tier IV: Bad rebuilding teams – MSU and OSU
Not many pucks were going in the net for MSU last year [JD Scott]
Michigan State
Last season: 7th in B1G, 7-18-2 (3-15-2-2), missed NCAA Tournament
Additions: Griffin Loughran, Tanner Kelly, Jesse Tucker, David Gucciardi
Subtractions: Charlie Combs, Tommy Apap, Brody Stevens
I’ve talked about some teams that had offensive problems last year already, but hoo boy, none had problems anywhere close to what the Spartans went through last season. They scored 40 goals in 27 games. Let me say that again: 40 goals in 27 games. That’s 1.48 goals per game, which even in the depths of the Dead Puck Era is an incredibly low number for a hockey team. Their leading goalscorer had 6 goals. Horrifying.
So how are the Spartans solving this problem? They bring in a competent forward who was productive at Northern Michigan in Griffin Loughran, and a couple decent recruits from the USHL in Tanner Kelly and Jesse Tucker. Otherwise, they’re just hoping for internal improvement. Most everyone on the team is back, though Charlie Combs exits, and he was one of the only Spartans who knew how to shoot the puck. Mitchell Lewandowski looks far less fearsome without Taro Hirose and Patrick Khodorenko, but he’s a decent player in the top six. The options after that become pretty grim based on last season. The hope probably lands on players like Jagger Joshua and Mitchell Mattson making late-career steps forward.
The tough thing for MSU is that they don’t need great offensive play to be respectable given the style they play and the strength of their goalies. Drew DeRidder has been a very good netminder for years now and Pierce Charleson looked great when we got to see him last season. They want to grind you down and win 2-1, but last year they could barely score one. The back end should be tough to score against again, with both Krygier brothers back there, in addition to veteran leader Dennis Cesana. But it bears repeating, where is the scoring coming from? Beats me.
The Upshot: I have MSU in the bottom tier until they show they can generate offensive chances with any remote degree of consistency. They’ll scratch out some wins, because playing that low event style allows you to win games you shouldn’t, but this isn’t as good of a team as they were a few years back, which has to be the question for Danton Cole. He got this program out of depravity, but they’ve yet to take the step towards being a tournament contender, and if that step doesn’t come soon, when is it coming? This is a roster with a good bit of experience and improvement is a reasonable expectation, but it’s a stretch to see them in a real hunt for postseason relevancy.
Ohio State's 2020-21 in one picture [JD Scott]
Ohio State
Last season: 6th in B1G, 7-19-1 (6-14-2), missed NCAA Tournament
Additions: Jakub Dobeš, Cam Thiesing, Reilly Herbst, Cole McWard, Mason Lohrei, Georgii Merkulov
Subtractions: Layton Ahac, Austin Pooley, Collin Peters
An underrated subplot in B1G Hockey last season was Ohio State plummeting through the floor. We had come to expect good play from the Buckeyes under Steve Rohlik, having made three straight tourney appearances and they were likely to make a fourth when COVID-19 hit in 2020, but then the bottom fell out last season. OSU was the conference’s worst team, unable to score in a way not unlike MSU (1.96 goals for per game), but also unable to stop the opponent from scoring, unlike MSU (3.74 goals against per game). There wasn’t anything that Ohio State was able to do well last season and the road back to relevancy has to start this campaign.
The good news (or I guess bad news) is that the Buckeyes get a lot of the same cast of characters back. Travis Treloar was splendid as a freshman, and Mark Cheremeta also returns at forward. That’s 2/3 of a good first line. But where does the rest of the help come from? Dudes like Tate Singleton, Quinn Preston, and Gustaf Westlund are not line-driving impact players at this point in their career. With top offensive blueliner Layton Ahac departing, OSU will need their forwards to improve as a group.
The one area that sees considerable attrition is in the crease, where Tommy Nappier and Evan Moyse exit, though both were not great last season. Returner Ryan Snowden and NHL Draft pick freshman Jakub Dobeš are probably the favorites to give the Buckeyes stability in the crease, but it may take some time for them to sort that out. The bulk of the defensive group (save for Ahac) from last season returns, and they do add a couple freshman, Cole McWard (once a Michigan commit) and Mason Lohrei, a second-round draft pick, who seems like a decent replacement for the once-drafted Ahac. Toss in grad transfer Will Riedell from Lake State, and at this point in time the prospect of patching up the defensive issues from last season seem far greater than the probability of fixing offensive impotency.
Altering the latter probably comes down to some of the names I already mentioned, Treloar and Cheremeta notably, taking huge steps forward. Patrick Guzzo, another ex-Michigan commit, is another player who the Buckeyes need to get more out of this season. They do add transfer Eric Cooley, who had a productive career at Niagara, but the problem remains that this team lacks impact scorers, guys like Tanner Laczynski and Mason Jobst, who terrorized the B1G in Columbus in years past. Until someone steps up to fill those holes, OSU seems destined for the bottom tier of the B1G again.
The Upshot: This team will be bad again. Defense should improve a bit, and maybe the roster getting a year older helps them score more too, but it’s very, very difficult to go from a -48 goal differential in 27 games to suddenly contending for a B1G title or a tourney bid in one offseason. Digging out of a crater that large is a multi-year process and I’d think the coaching staff in Columbus knows that. Baby steps will be welcome signs of progress and anything other than a last-placed finish in the conference is probably a successful season as OSU tries to return to the proud tourney team they were just a couple seasons ago.
The Non-Conference Foes
Defending champs UMass headlines Michigan's non-con schedule [UMass Athletics]
Michigan has a really difficult non-conference schedule, which is exactly what I wanted to see. If the Wolverines want to win a national title, they need to be tested and there doesn’t seem to be many teams that will test Michigan in the B1G outside of the four meetings with Minnesota. That’s where the non-conference comes into play and Mel Pearson loaded up the schedule in style. Here’s a quick run through of the teams on the schedule and what to expect:
- Lake Superior State: The Lakers made the tourney last season for the first time since the 90s and Michigan brings the in-state opponent to Yost to kick off the season this Friday and Saturday. The bad news for Lake State is that they lost a lot in the offseason, as their magical 2020-21 campaign was a lot like Wisconsin’s: a banner year that then sees most of the pieces responsible for the banner year depart. Michigan is a big favorite in both games, in your author’s opinion.
- #6 Minnesota-Duluth: Michigan was robbed of the opportunity to face Duluth in the tourney, and the Bulldogs subsequently upset North Dakota and made the Frozen Four because of course. The rabbit’s foot they’ve been using to magically win every tourney game for years finally lots its use against UMass, but Duluth remains as good a college hockey program as you’ll find anywhere in America. The Bulldogs do lose their top three scorers from last season, but there’s enough talent back, including goalie Ryan Tanti and defenseman Wyatt Kaiser, to believe this team will be back in the tourney. This game, coming in the second weekend, will be Michigan’s first test of the year.
- Either #5 Minnesota State or #12 Providence: This is the second game of the Icebreaker tournament, where Michigan gets either Minnesota State or Providence. Both are perennial tourney teams, though Providence did miss the mark last year. Minnesota State, on the other hand, made the Frozen Four. If it’s Minnesota State, Michigan will be facing an incredibly defensive team with the best goalie in college hockey, Dryden McKay. If it’s Providence, Michigan will be getting a team that was on the bubble last season and who returns 9 of its top 10 scorers from last season, and its goalie. Either way, Michigan will be tested. That second weekend, getting Duluth and then either of these teams, will tell us a lot about where the Wolverines are at.
- Western Michigan: The Broncos were close to .500 while playing in a solid conference (NCHC) a year ago. They have been a team that’s typically close to the bubble and Michigan actually gets them three times, twice in late October, and then again on the second-to-last day of 2021 in the late December event that represents the carcass of what was once the GLI. WMU wasn’t a great team last season but they return the vast majority of their production from a year ago and figure to be a frisky bubble team, certainly far from a pushover and better than a handful of teams Michigan will see in conference. To back this point up, WMU beat OSU in their exhibition game, 3-1.
- Niagara: This is Michigan’s lone layup series in the non-conference. Niagara went 7-12-3 last season while playing the majority of their games in college hockey’s worst conference (Atlantic Hockey). The Wolverines should blast the Purple Eagles on Thanksgiving weekend.
- Michigan Tech: The other team Michigan sees in the Not The GLI Anymore late December series is Tech. The Huskies finished just outside the poll in the preseason, finishing third in the “Receiving Votes” column. Tech has been a team that’s always right around being in the tourney ever since Mel resuscitated the program before coming to Michigan and that seems like a likely projection for this year’s team. Tech went 17-12-1 last season and they roll over almost everybody from last season. They’re in a similar boat to WMU as a good team that should be on the cusp of the tournament, and not one you can sleep on.
- #1 UMass: Michigan brings preseason #1 to Yost in January in the form of the top-ranked UMass Minutemen, the reigning National Champions. There’s definitely some attrition on this team, as you’d expect when you win a title, but UMass should 100% be back in the tourney, and probably in a top three seed. UMass is a program that knows how to win, and uhat’s a challenge for the Wolverines. UMass is probably not the best team in the country (NCAA Hockey preseason rankings have a hard bias towards last year’s results), but I’d have them in my preseason top 10, so this will be a stiff test to begin the new year.
Predictions
I'm betting on a big year from Brendan Brisson [JD Scott]
I have a rule to never make predictions, because it’s an easy way to make yourself look stupid, but I’ve gotten this far, so why the hell not? After sizing everything up, I think Michigan edges out Minnesota by a few points for the B1G regular season title. There will be some bumps in the road, because hockey is a sport with a high degree of randomness, but the Wolverines are the best team in the conference. By the end of last season, the gap between themselves and the Gophers was marginal, if one existed at all, seen through the three really tight games that the two teams played against each other in March.
Michigan lost less than Minnesota did in the offseason, and the two teams added similar recruiting classes, not to mention the fact that Michigan should see more growth in the offseason, given how young their offense was last year. That puts the Maize & Blue ahead of the Maroon & Gold in my book, but the presence of Minnesota right on Michigan’s heels should make this a fun conference chase and will make Michigan a better team because of it.
Michigan has 36 regular season games scheduled, so I’m going to predict 27-7-2 for the regular season, earning the Wolverines a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Predicting either the Big Ten Tournament or the NCAA Tournament is a way to make yourself sad, and it’s mostly a crapshoot, so I won’t do that. In lieu of that, I will leave you with these #HotTakeish predictions (opportunities to look stupid):
- Brendan Brisson scores 25 goals
- Thomas Bordeleau scores 55+ points and is a Hobey Baker finalist
- Philippe LaPointe surprises us and notches 8 goals
- We wonder by the end of the season if Luke Hughes is the team’s best defenseman
- Erik Portillo posts a higher SV% than Strauss Mann did last season
This should be a fun year [James Coller]
Wrap
Well, that does it on this year’s Michigan Hockey season preview: four articles totaling ~20,000 words, as well as a (long) podcast. I’ve linked it all in this post so you can check out any part/all that you want. I want to thank everyone for reading and hope you’ll follow along as the season progresses, and hopefully it’ll be as fun of a year as I think it will be. David and I plan to have a weekly HockeyCast and I’ll have weekly columns (probably bi-weekly in October and November during football season and then more regular after that) as the year progresses, in addition to David’s post-game articles. We’re committed to bringing you the best hockey coverage this site has ever provided, and I hope we can deliver.
Enjoy the fun, and support the team, because this will probably be the last ride for a lot of players whose names you’ll be hearing in the NHL for years to come. If you live in Ann Arbor or southeast Michigan, be sure to stop by Yost at some point. Hope for a Frozen Four but remember to enjoy the ride, even if it comes up short. Sincerely yours and Go Blue.