Previously: Last year's profiles.

West Bloomfield, MI – 6'3", 192
[David Nasternak]		24/7	4*, #225 overall #20 S, #5 MI
		Rivals	4*, NR overall #18 S, #8 MI
		ESPN	4*, #231 overall #14 S, #5 MI
		Composite	4*, #243 overall #25 S, #6 MI
		Other Suitors	OSU, ND, PSU, MSU, Purdue, UK, Iowa, Wisc
		YMRMFSPA	Jarrod Wilson
Previously On MGoBlog	Hello post from Ace. Future Blue Originals from Adam and Dave.
Notes	Twitter. Early enrollee, for as much as that matters.
Film
Senior Year: FBO every-snap from the Oak Park game:

The annual kickoff of this series doubles as a survey of the State of The Recruiting Industry, and Makari Paige's coverage is an excellent example of it. 24/7 and Rivals continue to chug along. At this point ESPN's rankings are mostly so they don't have to reference 24/7 and Rivals on television. Makari Page is a four star in ESPN's top 300, and this is the sum total of content on his profile:

SCOUTING REPORT

ESPN Analyst
Updated 12/18/2019

One wonders what the update consisted of. It wasn't text.

No one in this class cracked the top 100 on the composite; therefore everyone is outside of the range where ESPN is going to say one thing. We're all the way back to ~10 years ago when Scout and Rivals were the only games in town.

Anyway: Paige is that variety of defensive back who's skinny and tall and pretty athletic but not five-star athletic and is therefore pigeonholed as a deep safety. Allen Trieu in fact pulls out the quintessential Boring Deep Safety in recent Michigan history:

COMPARISON: Jarrod Wilson

rangy … Very long limbs. Excellent ball skills and natural athleticism. Center-fielder type … Able to come down into the box and is a solid tackler. Also can blitz off the edge and has shown the ability to play man-to-man coverage. Long-legged, so must continue to work on shortening his transitions and can still get faster in a straight line.

Paige is a legitimate 6'3" and garners praise for his football IQ and ability to swat balls with his long arms; the other aspects of safety play—change of direction—are more of a question.

[After THE JUMP: a world class Fred Jackson Quote from Ron Bellamy]

Touch The Banner's evaluation brings up various details that make him sound like a future Boring Safety:

… long, lanky frame … does a good job of throttling down when coming up to support the run and matching shin angles with opposing ball carriers. … You can tell that his coaches have adopted a more modern style of tackling rather than teaching guys to go for kill shots. He can make up a lot of ground in coverage and his size makes him a nice matchup guy against taller slot receivers and tight ends, if necessary. … takes good angles, has solid speed, and seems to understand how he fits into the run game.

...needs to add weight. …susceptible to getting run through … room to work on his coverage technique and can play a little high, which slows down his change of direction.

Our third item that makes the trend is Adam and Dave's Future Blue Originals on Paige. Adam:

….speed to stick with most receivers as well as the cautious approach to angles to stay in front of runners. …fit[s] runs well … quickness to erase large swaths of space in a hurry while maintaining the patience to read the back or receiver’s hips before coming up to close. Between the cautious angles, the correct reading of plays and players’ movement, and the quick-twitch response in tracking ball carriers, Paige is the kind of safety that can prevent explosive running plays. … If there’s one reason to play Paige deep it’s his propensity for getting way over the top of runs and taking an angle that guarantees no breakaways.

Paige's numbers join the chorus, with 199 tackles and 8 TFLs over his final two seasons along with 11 PBUs, four of them interceptions. Lot of downfield tackling going on as Paige cleans up for the sins of others. Josh Helmholdt said "there were stretches when you didn't notice [Paige]" that's a fair critique.

Projecting a guy's ability to process information at an elite level is always the most difficult part of scouting a guy. Nonetheless, this series is usually willing to make some hand-waving gestures in that direction. Paige sounds like he should be on the plus end.

"Instinctive" is a word that pops up in most of his evaluations, and while that's a thing that analysts sprinkle in like candy because it's irrefutable this Notre Dame scout of Paige—made when it was clear Paige was trending away from the Irish—is meaty enough to take seriously:

…exceptionally long … long arms and legs that really stand out. … You will see Paige play all over the field. He’ll play center field in a single high look, he’ll play the alleys from depth, he’ll play the alleys up tighter, he’ll come off the edge, he’ll play in the box and he’ll line up outside in man coverage.

… smart and instinctive player. He makes good decisions against the run game, shows good run-pass recognition, and what really stands out is how well he can make reads on what is about to happen based on the opponents formation and/or motion. He is either really smart and studies, or he’s the luckiest player you’ve ever seen, because I’ve seen snap after snap where Paige is running to a spot even before the back gets the ball, he is that locked in.

Adam gathered a similar impression on a full-game scout. Bellamy:

"High football IQ, high character kid, loves football. Really good student. He’s a diligent student in the classroom."

Bellamy also called him "very inquisitive" and a "student of the game."

The downsides are relatively modest but do point to certain limitations. The most frequent one is the most addressable thing in football: he's too skinny. Okay. Moving on.

Paige got measured praise when he attended various 7 on 7s ("held his own his own on the outside … so long … got beat sometimes"; "commander in the secondary … didn't let anything get behind him") and his Opening Regional ("long, athletic defender with good ball skills"). He did not get picked for the Opening proper, and given the nature of these things that suggests he didn't pop out in a format that is almost exclusively man-to-man. Trieu:

For a kid who had not been asked to play tons of man to man, I thought he had good results at The Opening Regionals when he was asked to cover wideouts on an island in a whole lot of space. His length was a big part of that.

Trieu also mentioned he "did not run or scratched his 40" at the regional; his posted shuttle time of 4.38 is fine for most purposes. It's not ideal for sliding down on a Giles Jackson-type slot or trying to keep up with the dread crossing routes.

Paige has versatility. Helmholdt:

"Paige is the total package at safety, one who can play with range in coverage and also roll into the box and be an asset in run support … I have seen Paige man-up receivers at the line of scrimmage and play off coverage equally as well, so he really does provide all the skills you look for out of that safety position."

But it's matchup versatility, not Dax Hill "I can do everything as well as you need" versatility. The FBO referenced above was against Oak Park and Maliq Carr, a Funchess-esque WR/TE chonky boi. Paige was frequently tasked with man defense on Carr. That went well:

Paige was covering Carr, and though Carr’s an excellent prospect he’s a fly runner, not a route artisan. Paige can go step-for-step against guys with good straight-line speed and he has the timing on his jams down, so I think he will fare well when tasked with walking down and covering slot fades. He also has very long arms, and though I don’t think the one play he had the opportunity to high-point the ball is enough to judge his vertical we did see Paige carry in-breaking routes with ease and thus stay in position to get his arm across a receiver’s. Paige was very smooth in his transition from backpedaling and his well-timed flip of the hips and use of his hands allowed him to maintain the leverage he had pre-snap and keep receivers pinned outside. He's a plus player in coverage.

Slot fades are particularly relevant to bring up: if Paige is over the slot he's going to be shading guys and the thing that makes sense to shade them to is the fade.

The unspoken (or vaguely gestured towards) issue is that when you have matchup versatility certain opposing offenses are going to have bad matchups for you and they will try their darndest to get those matchups.

FWIW, Pursuit by Midwest powers was seemingly genuine. Paige took a few different visits to OSU and fielded Crystal Ball picks from OSU insiders at one point in his process. ND and PSU also hosted him and almost certainly had committable offers on the table.

Paige enrolled early, and while that doesn't mean as much as it usually does since spring practice was cancelled he should still have something of a head start. He's also aided by the fact that West Bloomfield runs something close to Michigan's defense. Bellamy:

"We run a variation of Michigan’s defense. He has had a bunch of success playing the free safety position, the rover, (and) the viper. It would be an easy transition for him with the terminology being the same and him having a pre-existing relationship with the defensive coaches.”

Michigan brought in a couple other safeties who are neater fits for rover and viper; I wouldn't expect Paige to play anything except free safety for the duration of his career.

Etc.: Ron Bellamy is approaching Fred Jackson territory with some of these quotes:

“He’s a guy that reminds me of Tyrann Mathieu of LSU, though he’s much bigger than the Honey Badger is,” said Bellamy.

"Honey Badger, but a half-foot taller" makes me want to sit down with several different beverages and do spit takes from all of them.

Why Jarrod Wilson? It would be pure contrarianism to suggest anyone else. Paige is in the same rankings range, has the same physical profile, and is the same kind of guy who will come up and make all the tackles without blowing anyone's mind in the process.

Other comparables include Jeremy Clark, who struggled with being in the right spot as a safety but made a pretty dang good press corner, and Earnest Shazor. Shazor's a guy who's hard to bring up in these contexts because his career was so erratic. Bellamy referenced Shazor, presumably meaning the times where he hit guys very hard and not the times he chased them into the endzone.

Guru Reliability: High. West Bloomfield did a camp and 7 on 7 circuit, and 7 on 7 is very useful for evaluating cover guys. Paige was also a long-term starter on a prominent team who projects to the same spot in college.

Variance: Low. Needs to fill out a little; is otherwise as projectable as anyone. High floor player.

Ceiling: Moderate-plus. I have concerns about big centerfielder type safeties in 2020, when so much of the game is defending horizontally near the LOS. Paige is so long that he obviates some of this, but not all of it.

General Excitement Level: Moderate-plus. Michigan needed a high floor guy in this class and Paige is it. It's hard to see him being a star or getting drafted until the tail end of proceedings; it's hard to see him not becoming a useful starter.

Projection: The starting safety spots are going to be occupied by Brad Hawkins and Dax Hill; even so Paige is probably going to see the field early. Safety types are often useful on special teams. Meanwhile the depth chart past the starters is a series of question marks. The third-year players were seemingly behind two walk-ons, and 2019 recruit Quinten Johnson lost his freshman year to injury.

That means the two deep is wide open. The trio of freshman safeties should audition for Hawkins's job as freshmen. Paige is the most natural fit as a deep safety next to Hill and is probably a nose ahead out of the gate after enrolling early.