Will the Wisconsin game change your expectations?

Submitted by ldevon1 on

Mine, not so much. I expect a win, not sure we score 45+ pts, but I do expect to be undefeated for the MSU game. I expect they (MSU) might have a change of expectations by the time we play. I think they might lose this weekend in a shoot out with Indy, and make a QB change, either during the game or soon thereafter. It might make them hungrier (if possible) for our game, because it might revert back to the past, where that game is their whole season, and that scares me a little. My expectations (1 loss) and play in the B1G championship. I can never expect to go undefeated. I hope and pray, but never expect it. 

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myislanduniverse

September 28th, 2016 at 12:52 PM ^

As others have posted, the more I think about it, the more the Wisconsin game is looking like it was going into last year's Northwestern game.
 
Northwestern came into the season off everyone's radar, but after beating a Stanford team nobody expected, and then shellacking Minnesota in their B1G opener, they had the #1 scoring defense and the #6 defense per S&P+.  Michigan had the #3 ranked S&P+ defense coming into that week, and #2 scoring defense. It was never even close, though.
 
Wisconsin, like NU last year, has the #1 scoring defense and #6 ranked S&P+ defense, with signature wins against a top-5 LSU and top-10 MSU. But we've seen that both of these teams have struggling passing attacks and had to play into Wisconsin's defensive strength on the ground. To Northwestern's credit, 2015 Stanford finished 12-2 and finished #3 in the AP -- and while Minnesota finished a ho-hum 6-7, all of its games were competitive (hell they almost beat us). By the end of the season, I don't think LSU or MSU look like as big a victory as they do now, nor as big a victory as that Stanford win was for NU coming into Ann Arbor.
 
My read is that our strengths line up particularly well against their weaknesses: they have a plodding but consistent run game with accurate passes to keep the chains moving; I think this is the kind of offense that Don Brown's defense is designed to disrupt by forcing them into 3rd and long situations often. Against this defensive line, they're going to have to lean even more heavily on freshman QB Hornibrook's arm, and with Charlton, Gary, and Wormley menacing the backfield, and Lewis on an island, I don't see that happening. The big plays this year on us have (mostly) come from loss of contain on the edge against extremely mobile rushers. I don't expect much of that this weekend.
 
Against Wisconsin's defense, I don't see Michigan's offense having much success between the tackles. Wisconsin's run defense looked pretty solid last week, and they have an 80.5 YPG average allowed on the ground so far this season, good for 15th in the country. They come in at 51st in the nation for passing yards allowed, though, with an average of almost 200 YPG.
 
Peppers is the difference-maker in this game, by creating short fields on punt returns, and by taking some offensive snaps that produce enough on the ground to open the passing game up on top for Darboh and Chesson.
 

At 45 points, I'll take the under on this one, but I believe Michigan will cover the -10.5 spread. Let's call it 27-12, Michigan. But if the ground game finds some lightning in a bottle, it could be higher. If that's the case, I think national perception will change a lot, and my expectations for the season go up considerably. I still think we would need an incredibly difficult win in Columbus for a CFP game.

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Michifornia

September 28th, 2016 at 2:05 PM ^

I personally think MSU was overrated and now because Wisconsin demolished them, Wisconsin is overrated.  Are they a good team?  Yes.

But I don't think we'll have too much trouble with them.  Then again, at this point, I'll take a WIN any way we can get it.  Beats a flukey loss...

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Bb011

September 28th, 2016 at 2:06 PM ^

It very easily can change expectations, and anyone that says otherwise is lying. If we come out and destroy them like we did PSU, people are going to start getting even more hyped. If we come out and lose by a decent amount, people are going to bring the expectations down a bit. I think we are going to win by about 17 points, which will keep my expectations (and most people's) right at the same level.  

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elhead

September 28th, 2016 at 2:43 PM ^

that, if we blow these guys out, then we'll know that we have a much better team than what many have thought up to this point. Given our schedule, and given the ups and downs facing so many teams in the B1G and around the country, it's really hard to judge.

Not unlike last year, no? A lot of folks thought that the NW game was going to be a tough one, and then we shut them down completely. I have the same kinds of feelings this year, but we won't know much until this game is underway on Saturday where we stand with regard to Wisconsin. Win this one comfortably and we should be in great shape the rest of the fall.

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UMProud

September 28th, 2016 at 3:48 PM ^

Not really...nothing would surprise me except losing this game.  I wanna think we'll blow W out but I was also shocked by how well CO did out of the gate.  Time after time we see teams come to play Michigan like it's the freaking SuperBowl and we get their A game.  If we blow out W I won't be surprised cause we make good teams look bad.  If we get an MMA cage fight from W I won't be surprised either cause that seems to happen as well.

But I think it will be a fun ass ballgame!

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WSU to Blue

September 28th, 2016 at 5:55 PM ^

I definitely think it's a perception changing type of game. Considerable Big Ten opponent, top 10 matchup, and our toughest opponent yet. Wisconsin is in the top third of the most difficult teams we'll play this season along with MSU, Iowa, and OSU. If we don't win this our road to winning the Big Ten (and a Nat'l Championship if you wanna go that far) will only get that much more difficult. Not to mention, you need to be top 4 to get playoff consideration and although a lot can happen, an loss midseason might not bode well for us even if we win out the rest of our games. Flip it the other way, we win, Louisville is on upset alert, and we still have OSU to go. With a depleted MSU defense, and Iowa team that hasn't lived up to the hype between us and them. This could very well be the most difficult task until OSU. Plenty of reason to think it's a perception changer.

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drzoidburg

September 28th, 2016 at 8:40 PM ^

Uh how could it not? This is the first real challenge we face (unless Colorado ends up winning the PAC or something). I consider Wisconsin good enough to beat Ohio and make the playoff. If they win, they will surely make the CCG and it would be tough to beat them then, so my expectations would be 2-4 losses for us again. If Michigan wins though, could go undefeated. It would also tell me Michigan football is back. This would be IMO the most impressive win since i dunno, 2006?

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