goblu330

February 28th, 2023 at 11:45 AM ^

I have to say, I don't know 1-1 with one BTT win is going to do it.  I feel like they need to win a semi in the BTT to really feel secure unless they sweep these last two.

Palm is an outlier.  Michigan is only on 6 brackets in the matrix I believe.

Joined: 01/07/2022

MGoPoints: 32325

goblu330

February 28th, 2023 at 12:03 PM ^

I know.  I am just more looking at who is in front of us.  There are a couple of games that absolute have to go our way.  ASU has to lose to UCLA.  Clemson has to lose to UVA.  Wisconsin has to lose to Purdue.  Even then, I am not sure winning at unranked Illinois is going to be enough.  It is really starting to look to me that Michigan may have to win out in the regular season or make the BTT final.

Joined: 01/07/2022

MGoPoints: 32325

bronxblue

February 28th, 2023 at 12:12 PM ^

I agree about Palm but the Bracket Matrix "works" because it aggregate general sentiment but that sentiment tends to herd.  If you look at the actual entries in the matrix you see a lot of clustering, with a couple of the bigger-name prognosticators putting out their brackets and then a lot of the lesser-named ones seemingly copying them nearly (or whole) hog.  Some of that is because there is a correct consensus forming around teams, but some of it is also that there's little incentive to not be with the group and it is, frankly, pretty difficult to accurately analyze 100-ish teams for various ballots.  A great example is how many of these places all have the exact same auto-qualifiers from one-bid conferences.  They don't honestly keep track of who's the be Ivy team; they just go by what Palm/ESPN/KenPom say and that's it.

So yeah, I don't think people should be hyper-excited about Palm putting UM in but I also wouldn't be shocked if in a day or two UM snuck into a bunch of brackets without actually doing anything beyond Jerry Palm liking them.

Joined: 11/22/2008

MGoPoints: 172170

Monday Morning…

February 28th, 2023 at 5:23 PM ^

With the auto-qualifiers from the one-bid leagues, the way I've always done it is to simply slot in whoever's in first place at the time - in most cases, anyway. It's really not worth the time to compile data on a bunch of teams who will only make the tournament if they win their conference tournament. So you just do that at the end when those tournaments resolve and figure out where to seed the team.

Joined: 10/08/2017

MGoPoints: 2730

Hairbaugh Maximus

March 1st, 2023 at 9:29 PM ^

This Michigan team has grown up a lot over the last few weeks. Defensive growth  has made the difference. Yes, it took a Hail Mary to keep us in the Wisconsin game. But we were also playing without Jett. Most important of all, Bufkin is playing lights out and so is Dug. We are playing well enough to make the tournament without having to be a play-in team. Book it!

Joined: 01/12/2021

MGoPoints: 56

jmblue

February 28th, 2023 at 12:13 PM ^

If we finish 12-8 in the Big Ten and win a BTT game, I can't see us being left out.   We would have added either two Q1 wins or a Q1 and Q2, and the losses wouldn't be bad.

12-8 with a BTT opening loss would be extremely bubbly.

If we get swept this week, we may need to win the BTT.

Joined: 11/07/2008

MGoPoints: 103093

abertain

February 28th, 2023 at 12:24 PM ^

I hope they make it in, but it's a down year for the BIG, and they didn't win any significant non-conference games. It strikes me as really fair that they are on the bubble this year, and they just won a game on a last second heave against a team in the 60's on KenPom...I mean, this team isn't all that good. I hope they win it all! Go Blue and all, but I think it's okay to take off the maize colored glasses. 

Joined: 10/24/2009

MGoPoints: 4912