100% weird randomness

This is Why They Stayed (David Wilcomes)

Michigan is heading to Boston for it's NCAA-leading 26th Frozen Four, hoping to add to its NCAA-leading nine National Champions banners. Since I started closely following Michigan Hockey back in my freshman year of 2003-04, the Wolverines have made it to the final weekend just three times. In April 2008, Michigan was the best team in the country, flying through the CCHA and Albany Regional, led by Hobey Baker winner Kevin Porter and his winger Chad Kolarik. Everything Porter touched that season turned to goals. Unfortunately, Billy Sauer never really got the hang of playing at the Pepsi Center and the best team in the country came up a little short in OT to (surprise) Notre Dame. 



A few years later in 2011 a scrappy group of seniors led by Carl Hagelin, Matt Rust, and Louie Caporusso...not to mention Mighty Mite Super Goalie Shawn Hunwick...fought and clawed their way to St Paul through a two goal deficit and overtime winner again Nebraska-Omaha and then held on in a tight nail-biter against Colorado College. Shawn Hunwick earned the nickname "Tiny Jesus" for his 40,000 save, 2-0 shutout performance against behemoth super giant North Dakota, giving Michigan their first shot at a National Championship since 1998. Unfortunately, the Wolverines spent most of that game in the penalty box after using their legs just to make it to Saturday night. Goals from Bottom Six forwards Ben Winnett and Jeff Rohrkemper were not enough as the Wolverines experienced the beginnings of the Overtime Dark Arts of Minnesota-Duluth.

In the spring of 2018, Mel Pearson took his inaugural team back to St Paul after a late season run gained Michigan a tournament selection in Massachusetts. Cooper Marody, Josh Norris, and Quinn Hughes led the Wolverines through home state heroes Northeastern and Boston University. The roller coaster ride of Hayden Lavigne dipped against old Frozen Four foe Notre Dame, as Michigan blew a two goal lead and lost in the waning seconds of regulation. ​While that team was fun at times, they got hot at the right time, but were probably never good enough to win it all.



Now here we are, not too dissimilar to 2008. Michigan is the #1 overall seed, dripping with speed, skill, and future NHL stars. They beat their Automatic Qualifier Reward of AIC. They crushed...and then outlasted...the fiesty, experienced Quinnipiac Bobcats to give themselves a chance to go for glory. There are no lay-ups, cream puffs, or look-aheads. Just chalk. But as they say..."To be the best, you have to beat the best." Whomever does that next Saturday night...will have surely earned it.

 

[David Wilcomes]

The Four in Boston

(1) Michigan, (1) Minnesota State, (2) Minnesota, (1) Denver: The knock on this tournament is the randomness of single-elimination hockey...and lack of butts in seats in neutral arenas. That was not and will not be the case this weekend. If you could hand-pick four teams to battle it out for the national championship...it would be these four (sorry, not sorry Western Michigan).

  • Michigan is...well, Michigan. Locked and loaded with no real weaknesses, except the fact that anything can happen in 60 minutes of hockey. In any length series, they win. Against anyone. Book it. (But we'll never truly know because why do anything that makes sense?).
  • They play Denver. Who is basically Michigan. Their non-con schedule was not quite as good, but maybe their conference schedule was stronger? They're talented, fast, and explosive. Sounds familiar.
  • Minnesota State is also almost untouchable. In fact, since Michigan beat them back in October (when Michigan Football was just 6-0 and no one had danced in the snow of November 27th or the confetti of December 4th) the Screaming Eagles have lost just *three* times. Wut. Their numbers are incredible. They have no weaknesses, just maybe not quite the elite talent of the three other teams. Still, they may be the toughest out of all.
  • Their opponent is a team the Wolverines have seen five times, Minnesota. Yikes. Despite all of Michigan's success, it was Minnesota who won the Big Ten regular season– despite losing their starting 12th year starter in net– and sending multiple players to the Olympics. Have I mentioned they also beat Michigan twice? The Gophers can skate, score, and defend with Michigan and are getting surprisingly stellar goaltending from Justen Close. There will be no surprise national champion in 2022.

 

(1) Michigan vs (1) Denver

Team

Corsi Rank

PP%

PK%

Players Drafted

Skaters >.75 ppg

GAA

Save%

Record in last 5 games

KRACH Prob of winning

Denver

3 25% 80% 12 9 2.16 .909 5-0 38%

Michigan

6 27% 83% 12 7 2.13 .926 5-0 62%

[Zoey Holmstrom]

Things Michigan Needs to Do Against Denver (because David is trying to steal parts from the full preview on Thursday):

1. Take Shots. This seems obvious and unnecessary to reiterate, but it probably is the one slight difference between these two teams. Magnus Chrona hasn't been poor, but he has been susceptible to an eye-roller or two. For all of Erik Portillo's blood pressure raising wanderings, he's been very solid in the crease, not giving up many terrible goals. In a game that seems like it will feature wide open offense, Michigan should have the slight advantage in net. Get as many pucks on net, and see if you can steal a bad goal or two. That could be the difference.

2.  Don't Take A Major. This will be a thing until this year ends. Could it be negated by not having to deal with Big Ten referees? Possibly, but enough of those were also on the players. We've reached the point in the tournament where everyone is going to have a dangerous power play and you cannot spend 1/12 of the game defending an All-You-Can-Eat power play. Michigan hasn't committed a major power play in post-season hockey, so I don't think it will be a problem... but still!! Don't do it!

3. Don't Stop. No lead is safe. Both of these teams are firewagons and can rally from deep deficits. All gas, no brakes. I expect this game to open up, and away we'll go. This has the feel of the team with the puck last (or the goalie who makes the crazier saves) will win. Good for hockey, television rating, and neutrals... not for blood pressure and ulcers!

Final Thoughts: This is going to be fun. It would be better if it were a series, though. Both teams are basically mirror images of each other. They want to attack, shoot, score...and do it again. Then, they want to throw their defensemen into the fray and shoot and score even more. Michigan may have a slight advantage on special teams and in net. Has Portillo given up 10 bad goals this year? Denver is weirdly maybe a tad deeper (lolwut) in scoring depth. Denver wants to try to tie Michigan for total title banners; Michigan wants to extend their breathing room over the Pioneers. In the end, Portillo outshines Chrona, and Michigan wins a barn-burner.

Alex's Take: I like Michigan's chances in this one, but predictions for these sorts of games are mostly meaningless. Denver presents an extremely interesting challenge as a team who can pressure Michigan with their forecheck, and they've got skill that very few other teams have. If Erik Portillo isn't on his game, the Pioneers can shovel in goals. But the same could be said the other way around. Two teams that want to play a high scoring game, but in that context, I take the team with the better goalie and the one with (at the end of the day), more talented players. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: The game that doesn't involve Michigan]

obligatory [Marc-Gregor Campredon]

1/25/2020 – Michigan 62, Illinois 64 – 11-8, 2-6 Big Ten

Ha ha no not really. I would never threaten a puppy just because my favorite basketball team has been hit by a frying pan over and over again. I find this all funny, actually. I want you to know that.

I am personally unaffected by Michigan basketball's month long run towards a football held by a Lucy so diabolical that it put Franz Wagner, to date an 87% free throw shooter, at the line late. Wagner clanged both free throws to cap an 0/5 run on FTs. Ayo Dosunmu canned a tough runner over Simpson, his 10th make on 4 attempts in the midrange. Loss.

Dosunmu, a 29% three point shooter entering the game, hit two of three with both makes off the dribble.

I am not collecting these facts so I can print out a brick worthy of brandishing at the sky. I do not plan to rend my garments and moan "whyyyyyyyyyyy?" as I brandish the brick of outrageous items (Trent Frazier hit two threes from thirty feet! Michigan had two turnovers and lost!) at the sky. I think this is all funny.

Michigan had ten offensive rebounds and two turnovers and 21 free throws and did not score a point per possession. I am not looking up proper usage of the word "yeet," which appears to be something that addled teens use to beg powerful entities to erase them from existence. All of this is part of life's rich pageant. One must take the good with the bad.

Isaiah Livers lasted 20 minutes before appearing to re-injure his groin in a potentially season-crushing moment. I am… AAAARGH FUUUUUUUUU-

[After THE *UMP: still no letter that comes after i]

Hello Kip. Harbaugh Twitter Summer continues unabated.

This fall Gedeon answers press conference questions by saying things are getting pretty serious and stating that he loves technology. Bank on it.

Finally. #M00N makes Erase This Game. The Funchess butt fumble is not even mentioned. That's how #M00N #M00N was.

M00N is a sad game, and some of that tragedy comes from the advantage of hindsight. Winning didn't save Michigan's season or Brady Hoke's job, as they followed this with a home finale loss to Maryland. Losing didn't inspire Northwestern to a turnaround; even though they beat Notre Dame a week later, the Wildcats missed bowl eligibility by losing to a depleted Illinois team in their last game. That's the bad news.

The good news is every astronaut gets astronaut ice cream. Let's check out today's flavors.

I have been eating Cookies 'N Ennui for a long time now.

Okay. Former TE/DE Keith Heitzman is at Ohio for his final year of eligibility. The Dispatch has an article that's trying to rake up some muck on a standard practice in college:

Keith Heitzman understood that big changes were in order after Jim Harbaugh was hired to replace Brady Hoke as Michigan football coach just hours before the New Year.

What staggered Heitzman was that he might have been one of those changes. Every player going into his fifth year of eligibility, he was told, would have to audition for his job during spring practices.

Heitzman, degree in hand, opted out. That's fine for him and fine for Michigan.

The worst thing you can pin on Harbaugh is a lack of tact. We will put this evidence of Harbaugh's lack of tact in the extradimensional bag of holding. There it can mingle with its fellows and not fill the universe stem to stern.

For perspective, over the years I've read plenty of articles that reference Notre Dame's policy in this department. They come at it from the other direction, wondering not who might be departing but who might be coming back:

The future for the remaining 14 seniors on the roster, all of whom are eligible for a fifth year, is less certain. … At the most, half of them will return. Notre Dame’s 2015 recruiting class sits at 21 verbal commitments, which, if all 21 sign letters of intent in February, will give the Irish 78 scholarship players of the 85 the NCAA allows.

All of ND's seniors walk on senior day, even if they have another year of eligibility. That's how much of a non-story this is.

"It happens," said the jaded boat owner. SCUFFLE KERFUFFLE ON THE WATER

The Border Battle played a role in getting two people arrested and locked up at the Ottawa County Jail.

A Michigan-Ohio State football argument on the Jet Express allegedly prompted a fight that resulted in assault charges.

Witnesses say the rivalry argument turned physical between two couples with a woman pulling another woman’s hair and the two men throwing punches at each other.

1. The "Jet Express" is so well known in Ottawa County that there is no explanation of what it is. There is a picture of a boat.

Jet Express1[1]

I assume it's the boat. Ottawa County readers are boggling at my ignorance right now. The Jet Express is Ottawa County.

2. This was undoubtedly issued with a grim sigh.

"It happens,” says Todd Blumensaadt, owner of the Jet Express. “They get very passionate about their teams."

You see a lot of things when you own a boat. Most of them are stupid.

3. This man is either named "Larry Money" or "Larry Mahoney"—the article is uncertain—and has a hot take.

"Sports are good, but when it reaches that point, obviously it's way overboard."

Good point, Larry Money Mahoney. OR SHOULD I CALL YOU ADAM MONEY JACOBI?

4. Ace grabbed a "Money" Mahoney screenshot:

image

"sparty fan"

Is he Carl Monday's brother? That's not generally how names work but we've already established that Gary Money Mahoney is not beholden to your "rules" about nomenclature, man.

5. This reporter may have had to scrounge up quotes for this dumb story, wondering the whole time how she was ever going to pay off her Princeton J-school student loans, but at least she's not working for Gawker.

6. I may have spent too much time on this.

1977 pep rally. Featuring Bo! He guarantees a win! They burn an OSU player in effigy! They wear 70s clothes! The reporter's jacket!

Michigan won 14-6. Harbaugh was probably at the pep rally and knew Bo had zero basis for getting mad at him when he issued his guarantee.

Surprise. That CSG survey they did in the middle of the general admission fiasco makes the WSJ because it appears to be the first serious attempt to figure out what the kids actually want at football games. A company has just confirmed that with a much larger survey that somehow surprises the author:

The most recent support for this surprising result comes from a new survey by the National Association of Collegiate Marketing Administrators and Oregon’s sports marketing center. It asked almost 24,000 students across the country to rank the factors that influenced their decision to attend games. By far the most important was a student’s interest in that sport. By far the least important was a stadium’s cellular reception or wireless capability.

The study is so counterintuitive that it seems like it must be an outlier—except that it is supported by similar polls in places where college football is massively popular.

At Michigan, when the student government asked undergraduates why they go to football games, what they found clashed with conventional wisdom: Michigan’s students simply didn’t care that much about mobile connectivity. In-game Wi-Fi wasn’t as essential as lower ticket prices or better seat locations. Among the seven possible improvements to the game-day experience, in fact, students ranked cell reception last.

I'm not sure where that notion came from, other than the sort of gentleman who talks about social engagement and uses hashtags# like coffee dad. And it's not like they even fixed mobile connectivity at Michigan despite thinking that was the most important thing they could do.

Gonna get paid. I don't think Jim Delany has much to do with it, but Lost Letterman points out that the Big Ten is likely to get paid when their contract—the last to get renegotiated for a long time—comes up:

Since launching FOX Sports 1 two summers ago, FOX has been waiting for its chance to put a huge monkey wrench in ESPN’s world dominance of sports. This is that chance.

The Big 10’s 10-year, $1 billion contract with ESPN and six-year, $72 million deal with CBS for select basketball games and six-year, $145 million pact for the Big 10 Championship Game all expire after the 2016-17 season and a new, gargantuan deal will be struck within the next 12 months.

The only two legitimate TV players for the conference’s Tier 1 football rights (best games) are Disney (ABC/ESPN) and FOX, as CBS already has the Tier 1 rights to the SEC and NBC is content airing Notre Dame home games.

The only thing we know for certain is that the Big 10 is about to get paid.

Delany will get the credit for being the camel herder who sat down on this particular patch of oil again, when literally anyone could sit in a room and watch FOX and ESPN go blow for blow. The Big Ten will use this money to hire more MAC coaches.

Best make your money now, though: ESPN is 20th(!) on the list of a la carte channels people would pay for. Barking Carnival has an excellent article on the coming cord cutting that touches on points I've made and continues with them.

Etc.: Michigan's schmancy new dorm. When I was in college the dorms were made out of mildew and we liked it. Predicting Michigan's win total with SCIENCE. Extremely early Utah preview from SBN's Ian Boyd. Someone has to make the tough decisions like "let's play a game in Dubai." Harbaugh antics.