Im at the airport heading home... BUT I did manage to get this uploaded... Hope you guys ENJOY!!!! Ill be at the game on Saturday so if youd like to meet up let me know.
Both Ace and Steve Wiltfong crystal balled to Michigan today.
Here's the next installation of Bill Connelly's Five Factors metrics matchup between UM & Wisconsin. It's a bit busy, but what you see are columns of raw metrics for both offenses and defenses. The Category of the given metric is given in the column at the left. To the right of the team offense and defense metrics are the National Averages for that category. The last two columns are where the rubber meets the road...
The "M Offense vs. UW Defense" column averages those two metrics to gauge the performance of the UM offense against the Wisconsin defense. Likewise, the "UW Offense vs. M Defense" averages the other two to gauge the performance of the Wisconsin Offense. From there, the column with the greater aggregate number has the competitive advantage...EXCEPT, in the three categories with asterisks: "Stuff Rate", "SD Sack Rate" and "PD Sack Rate", which are contra-metrics that gauge the offense's ability to avoid the given categorical description.
Anyway, the numbers showing the advantage are in bold, and as such it appears the matchups tilt in M's favor in all four of the non-turnover Five Factors. Breaking it down further, UM has the advantage in all but four sub-categories, as follows:
- Rushing IsoPPP (rushing explosiveness, measured as pts. scored per successful rushing plays)
- Power Success Rate (percentage of runs on third or fourth down, two yards or less to go, that achieved a first down or touchdown)
- SD IsoPPP (pts. per successful standard down), and the same as against Colorado & PSU...
- PD Line Yards per Carry (bonus yards gained by running on passing downs...a.k.a. breaking contain!). As with the Buffs & PSU, gap integrity is going to be an important discipline for Wolverines success against the Badgers.
The IsoPPP advantage of Wisconsin in both the standard downs and rushing plays will mean the UM must continue to make improvements defensively in order to contain explosive plays, particularly on Standard Downs, which is a weakness of the UM Defense. It's apparent that the most likely means to Wisconsin success against the Wolverines will be through the explosive plays.
In general, however, I would say this matchup looks more promising than I'd expected just based on the what little I've seen of Wisconsin's play and other standard statistics.
|FIVE FACTORS||M Off.||M Def.||UW Off.||UW Def.||
M Off v
UW Off v
3) FIELD POSITION:
4) FINISHING DRIVES:
Pts./Trip in 40
5) T/O MARGIN:
T/O Luck (PPG)
|Rushing Success Rate||44.7%||18.4%||40.8%||30.3%||41.0%||37.5%||29.6%|
|Power Success Rate||87.5%||61.5%||61.9%||33.3%||69.0%||60.4%||61.7%|
|Passing Success Rate||44.7%||23.1%||48.2%||30.9%||40.2%||37.8%||35.7%|
|SD Success Rate||47.5%||25.4%||45.8%||34.6%||45.8%||41.1%||35.6%|
|SD Line Yds/Carry||3.25||1.43||3.16||2.58||2.96||2.92||2.30|
|SD Sack Rate||3.6%||16.7%||3.4%||2.3%||4.7%||3.0%||10.1%|
|PD Success Rate||37.5%||14.9%||39.2%||23.8%||30.3%||30.7%||27.1%|
|PD Line Yds/Carry||2.76||2.49||2.02||1.18||3.4||1.97||2.26|
|PD Sack Rate||3.3%||17.1%||7.6%||9.8%||8.0%||6.6%||12.4%|
Some great stats in this piece put out by 247 today. Really cool to see how we line up against the rest of the country on both sides of the ball. My favorite part:
"There are only three teams scoring more points per game than Michigan. No team has more sacks (17) or tackles for loss (44) than the Wolverines. Like Jabril Peppers, who leads the team with 332 all-purpose yards and is second with 33 tackles while leading the country with 23.7 yards per touch and with 9.5 tackles for loss, Michigan is dominating on both sides of the ball. It has an extremely tough game waiting at the end of the regular season against rival Ohio State. But arguably nobody is in a better position to earn a spot in the Playoff this year than Michigan."
Yes, week 5 caveats and such (also, beat Wisconsin...before anyone else says it). But it's great to see us at the top of so many categories of stats already and looking ahead, should we continue that trend on Saturday, in great position to have a really special season.
OT - I.O.A.N. (In Other Alabama News): Five-star Alabama quarterback to transfer after beginning year as starter
From the starting quarterback of Alabama's season-opener to out the door. That's the path Blake Barnett has chosen, as he's decided to transfer from Alabama. That's according to AL.com, which is reporting Barnett will transfer and has already left the program.
And apparently Nick Saban is aware, but not FULLY aware:
When asked about Barnett's transfer, Nick Saban said he talked to Barnett about his future, and that he wants him to remain at Alabama. He also said that as far as he knew a final decision hadn't been reached yet.
UM recruited him...think Harbaugh would have any interest? He'd obviously have to sit out a year...but what a QB stable we would have!
As for where Barnett will land, he likely won't find himself with a shortage of interested suitors. He was the No. 2 pro-style quarterback in the 2015 class, and the California-native had offers from schools like Notre Dame, Michigan, Ole Miss, Oregon and UCLA just to name a few.
He's a West Coast kid though...maybe he'll take his talents to USC? Maybe Kiffin let him know he would soon follow? #FoilHats
Seriously though, F Nick Saban and all things Alabama.
Down below, I messed up and called Wilton Speight a Junior. This was based on information I got from the MGoBlue site.
Nice to see Michigan well represented. Hoping to see more Wolverines by the end of the season.