Member for

9 years 11 months
Points
11800.00

Recent Comments

Date Title Body
06/22/2018 - 1:24pm He is limited to playing a…

He is limited to playing a hybrid LB/S position which many defenses don't have, or don't use in the same way as Brown does.  Hudson had a bit more flexibility and even then, PSU didn't want him when he committed to Michigan. 

06/18/2018 - 10:07pm And the coaches don't have…

And the coaches don't have guys on staff who do the same thing?  You're either arguing in bad faith or a moron.  Michigan has a staff of guys who do nothing but watch film, scout prospects, and relay the information to the coaches.  These are people who have usually played or coached at a relatively high level and want to move up in the football coaching world.  Besides watching 18 year olds play football and go to camps, what experience do the recruiting site analysts have?  Maybe they played in college?  I don't know that any of them have actually coached.  Do they do the homework on finding out from the recruit's family and coaches what type of person they are?  How hard a worker they are?  How likely they are to get in trouble? 

And on top of that, these 7 on 7s and other camps aren't exactly the best judge of football talent.  How much can you tell about a QB wearing shorts who doesn't have to worry about contact, a tackle who is just going 1 on 1 with a DE, a WR running a quadruple move on a safety?

06/18/2018 - 8:00pm It still is, the very last…

It still is, the very last line of the article.

 

Not all recruits can handle Michigan State’s hard-working atmosphere, but if he wants a program that’s always in the spotlight, Ann Arbor may just be the perfect fit.

06/14/2018 - 5:38pm In his first couple of years…

In his first couple of years, Harbaugh put a lot of emphasis on improving the walk on program and they got a bunch of guys who were FCS or D3 caliber to instead walk-on.  Also, these guys usually go unnoticed but are an important part of the team and a mention by the head coach is a great reward for their hard work.

06/14/2018 - 4:42pm People are going way…

People are going way overboard on the RB roster problems.  In the 2017 class, Michigan was pretty sure they were getting Najee Harris, who was a day 1 player along with Samuels who needed a couple years to be college ready.  Once they were blindsided by his Alabama commitment they didn't have much time to fill the spot.  In the very next class, they addressed the lack of depth by going after 3 guys they really like in Turner, Haskins and Barrett.

None of those guys have practiced yet so they can't be on the depth chart.  Come September, there will be 7 RBs on the roster, only 1 of whom will be out of eligibility after this year. 

06/06/2018 - 10:28am Michigan was in his top 3 a…

Michigan was in his top 3 a month ago and now out of it?  Maybe there's more to it than just not having Michigan in his top 13?  And it really doesn't matter, because right now he clearly has a top 1, so Michigan being 2, 13, or 50th doesn't matter.

Win some games, beat some rivals and things like this will change quickly.

06/01/2018 - 3:33pm It's likely no more than he

It's likely no more than he developed early and then didn't keep developing as his classmates caught up.  Michigan was after him at one point but they dropped off as they saw more of his classmates and started to pursue guys like Daxton Hill and Lewis Cine.  Plus they took a bunch of CB/S types last class so they can be picky.   His offers from Michigan and ND are likely not committable.

For anyone interested, the 247sports targets page for Michigan is kept pretty up to date by Steve L and those listed as top targets are guys who the staff really wants and thinks they have a good shot with(in the top 3-5).  Those under high choice are guys Michigan would like but aren't likely to get.  Below that are guys Michigan isn't really recruiting or are watching but haven't offered yet.  I don't think it's paywalled and it gives a nice snapshot for those who don't follow recruiting closely.

 https://247sports.com/college/michigan/Season/2019-Football/Targets

06/01/2018 - 9:44am The PSU pick is not Webb.

The PSU pick is not Webb. It's some PSU fan who went on a run of picking 30 recruits to commit to PSU.

05/31/2018 - 2:35pm True, though hopefully the

True, though hopefully the fixes at tackle are already on the roster in Hudson,  Stueber, Honingford, Hayes, and Mayfield.  If Michigan is counting on fixes to the lack of tackles coming from 2019 class we're in for a couple of dissapointing seasons.  With no guards in 2018, they need a few younger guards and they should ride the bench until the 16 and 17 classes have moved on.

05/30/2018 - 1:02pm I love the idea that Al

I love the idea that Al Washington is a pass rush guru and what that means for improvements in Bush and Hudson's game. 

Additionally, thinking about improvements for next year I looked up what Michigan's havoc rate was and even with a young defense that was only 10th, they were #1 in Havoc at 23.7%.  That's a tfl, pass defensed, or forced fumble on 23.7% of plays faced.  Since 2014 (as far back as I can find havoc rate listed) the only team to exceed 23.7% was 2016 Michigan at 23.9% and the only teams above 23% were 2017 Wisconsin(23.6%) and 2014 Clemson(23.2%). 

They will certainly miss Hurst's disruption on the interior, but I could really see this defense setting a new record and maybe even pushing 25%, which would only be 1 more havoc play per game.

05/28/2018 - 1:21pm Because predicting what

Because predicting what teenagers will do is a 100% scientific process?  The nice thing about the crystal balls is they are easier to keep updated than the hot/warm/cool tags that the recruiting sites maintain themselves.  But they aren't a forecasting of the future, things change. You're asking people to forecast 17 year olds making a decision where they have parents, HS coaches, and multimillionaire college coaches(masters of motivation and manipulation) all trying to sway their decisions.

05/28/2018 - 1:17pm Herron is at best 50% to stay

Herron is at best 50% to stay in the class, Hinton is going to outgrow DE, one of Upshaw or Hutchinson likely moves inside, and Welshof is very raw.  The attention paid to hiim by Mattison and Brown indicates he's more than a backup plan, and they want him.  And as Magnus has pointed out here, he has tremendous upside, if they take a lot of DEs, they have room for some guys who are more developmental.

05/28/2018 - 11:39am The staff definitely likes

The staff definitely likes Fletcher, who was all MSU at one point before Mattison and co had him leaning towards Michigan. Now he's trending back towards MSU but he has his official visit in June right before his announcement and that will be a huge recruiting weekend for Michigan that could swing him back. Even though recruiting services have him lower, the staff seems to want him.

05/28/2018 - 1:00am Peppers was hurt by the way

Peppers was hurt by the way he was used to cover up for the lack of athleticism at a lot of positions on the 2016 team.  It was essentially his 2nd season after missing most of 2014, and he was playing a new position in a new defense.  On top of that he had KR, PR, and saw plays on offense.  So while his athleticism allowed him to do a lot, he was lacking in the technique department and it showed in his coverage.  I don't know that you can fully compare the two because Peppers erased the screen game in a way I've never seen before and that doesn't show up on film.

05/27/2018 - 11:26pm Too many question marks to

Too many question marks to give 2018 the nod before the season, but they have the potential to exceed 2016 at a bunch of postions depending on how guys perform.  The theme across the board is the players are more athletic but younger.  2016 was a lot of 4th and 5th year players, 2018 will be mostly 2nd and 3rd year guys.  But QB, WR, TE, DE, S, and CB are all position groups that could be better while RB and LB are already better.  Unlikely that DT will be better because Solomon and Dwumfour are new starters.  And OL is arguably already better at run blocking but is unlikely to pass block as well unless Wariner exceeds the hype.

05/26/2018 - 11:42pm Though I'm not a big

Though I'm not a big basketball fan, I can't stop being amazed at what LBJ does and how long he has been consistantly elite.   It's unbelievable the way he can just take over a game and carry a team.  I don't see how LBJ can't at least be on the same level as Jordan if not better.

One criticism I don't understand is the idea that MJ made his teammates better while LBJ makes his worse considering the assist numbers don't seem to back that up.

05/26/2018 - 12:46am The need on OL is less acute

The need on OL is less acute than many fans think.  The guys to fix it are likely already on the team.  Between Hayes, Mayfield, Honingford, and Stueber they have the young OT bodies they just need to develop.  And there are a plethora of guard types on the roster with a few more commited.  They certainly need a few tackle recruits, but they aren't counting on a true freshman to fix the OL in 2019.

05/25/2018 - 6:20pm So offers from OSU, Clemson,

So offers from OSU, Clemson, and Georgia don't mean anything?  Or is he only a huge get if he has those offers and is highly rated?

Would you consider Devin Bush a huge get?  He was a player the coaches wanted desperately and had offers from Alabama, FSU, Georgia, and LSU but he was outside of the top 300.  

What about Wheatley Jr.?  He had USC, Alabama, and FSU offers but was also outside of the top 300.

And it's not easy to find a 3 star tight end who will be a star, it matters the ones that Harbaugh targets and goes after.   McKeon was the number 45th TE in the 2016 class, the 43, 44, 46, and 47 TEs have 3 catches combined.  Michigan didn't offer them, but they offered McKeon for a reason.

05/25/2018 - 3:35pm As one of the coaches top

As one of the coaches top targets at TE I'd say so.  And considering Harbaugh's track record at TE, it is foolish to trust recruiting services over him.  

05/25/2018 - 2:45pm You're right for once.

You're right for once.

05/25/2018 - 8:31am Considering that Hill and

Considering that Hill and Long could easilly go pro this year, and it's Kinnel's last season, there is clearly a need for DBs to refill to roster in 2019.  Plus, they have done plenty of 3-3-5 and nickel where they need 5 DBs on the field at once.

05/24/2018 - 1:44pm Better not, that's probably

Better not, that's probably an NCAA violation.

05/22/2018 - 1:11pm I thought there was chatter

I thought there was chatter during the spring of Paea moving to OL but I don't remember where I read it.  And I'm pretty sure the plan for Upshaw was always as an interior guy.

Maybe I'm still haunted by the Hoke and RR years but it always seems Michigan is not recruiting enough of the WDE types or the ones they do recruit outgrow the position.  I know we have Villain, Paye and Winovich this year, but they didn't take any last year and DiCosmo and Herron both seem iffy at this point.  I know they have Newburg committed who has been compared to Winovich, but I'd hope they can get another commit who is solid to stick to the class.

05/19/2018 - 12:51pm Notre Dame would benefit just

Notre Dame would benefit just as much, Washington, UCLA, and USC would to a lesser extent for academics kids who want to stay on the west coast.

05/19/2018 - 9:38am And there were similar

And there were similar results at the end of the 2018 cycle with Friday, NPF, and Reese.  You can just claim it was because of certain recruiting practices but winning and narrative matters.  Kids rarely say it, but they want to play for winners.  You can't always tell with individual kids but the only year Michigan had a great January/February was the 2016 class with Gary, Long, and Asiasi.  Get beat by Florida in that bowl game and Gary may have looked at that Clemson offer more closely.  2017 was good but should have been better based on what was being reported, and 2018 was terrible. 

Win big this year, and none of it matters.  Names not even on the board right now will suddenly pop up and be interested.

05/18/2018 - 8:39pm And in November Michigan was

And in November Michigan was either leading for or very close to 1st with Najee Harris, Isaiah Wilson, Willie Gay, and there were a few others they were in the top 3 for.  Beat Iowa, OSU and go to the CFP and that class would have been top 3 at least.

05/18/2018 - 1:52pm I don't think Reese was a

I don't think Reese was a viper and as Magnus said, can't be too worried about LB recruiting under Brown.  They will find guys and get them ready.  Won't take long for guys to want to be the next Kaleke Hudson or Devin Bush with the season those guys should have this year.

05/18/2018 - 1:45pm Ending the season strong

Ending the season strong would go a long ways towards helping with those recruitments. Limping to the finish line in 16 and 17 did no favors for those recruiting classes.

05/18/2018 - 1:43pm Neraska has a lot of

Neraska has a lot of territory but I don't know that it's the best position to be in.  Their map looks bigger than it is because many of their territories are very large compared to the ones in the midwest and NE.  Additionally, they have a lot of boarders to defend.  Out of their 21 territories, only 2 don't need to be defended.  Meanwhile, if Michigan takes back Maine, 8 of our 11 territories don't need to be defended.  Florida is in a good position as well with 5 completely safe territories.  

05/17/2018 - 12:38pm No, D&D for sports fans is

No, D&D for sports fans is called fantasy football.

04/30/2018 - 6:14pm Ideally around 7-8. Probably

Ideally around 7-8. Probably 2 each class because they take time to develop and they are rarely sure things. If guys aren't working out they will likely move on. If Newsome can't go, he likely gets a medical after this year. Jbb is a rs senior and will graduate. Runyan is a rs Junior and will probably grad transfer if not starting. Other guys are still young and need to develop.

04/27/2018 - 10:44pm I've wondered before if there

I've wondered before if there are NCAA rules against paying players after their eligibility is expired.  Could Michigan just decide to give all graduating football players $25,000 per year on the team?  Could they say anything about it during recruiting or would they just have to claim they spontaneously decided to give a bunch of dudes who used to play on the football team 1 time cash payments after they graduated?

04/27/2018 - 7:32pm As others have pointed out,

As others have pointed out, Costco treats their workers far better than Sam's club.  They take opposite approaches, and it's a great case study in the benefits of treating your workers well.

Costco pays good wages, supports career advancement and treats their workers well.  They believe that happy employees make stores run better and the low employee turnover leads to saving money on retraining and general new employee issues.

Sam's Club treats their workers like crap, doesn't pay well, and doesn't expect them to stick around long.  They figure that the increased cost of training and new employee mistakes is made up for by the savings in salary.

I've shopped at Sam's club and it was fine, but I prefer to support Costco's method and find their fresh foods superior to Sam's Club.

04/26/2018 - 9:05pm Why did the Bills even need

Why did the Bills even need to trade up 5 spots for a QB? TB doesn't need a QB, Chi took one last year, SF and Oakland also don't need QBs. Maybe Miami grabs one but that would only be one spot ahead of them.

04/25/2018 - 11:16pm The article actually

The article actually discusses the production of RBs by round drafted and found that while yds/g is higher for 1st round picks, yds/c is almost identical across all 7 rounds.  So the only reason to take Barkley is if he is truely a generational talent, and even then top 4 may be a stretch.  

Look at Dallas and Elliott.  They got a ton of production out of Eliott as a rookie, but I recall their secondary really struggled (why they took JD Lewis and that corner from Colorodo in 2017).  Instead of drafting Eliott at 4 they could have had Ramsey the next pick and gotten some a decent FA RB.  No one could have forseen Eliott's suspension in 2017 but in the 2017 season the two backups actually had higher yards/carry than Eliott.

04/25/2018 - 9:03pm It's a commonly held belief

It's a commonly held belief that the majority of the revenue from football/basketball goes to cover other sports and it's just not true. 

There are about 1000 scholarship athletes at Michigan, and many of them aren't on full scholarship but for the sake of making it easy let's assume they are.  The university pays full cost of attendance which is currently listed as $62k for out of state.  I believe an additional stipend was just allowed so lets say they spend $70k per student.  That comes out to only $70 million of the $170 million the athletic department brought in last year.

There is easily money available at a school like Michigan to pay players who bring in the majority of that $170 million, but to make it look like there isn't, athletic departments are spending it as fast as they can.  New facilities, higher salaries, more coaches, more support staff, anything they can think of to prevent a huge surplus from showing up in their books.

When coaches like Jim McElwain, Butch Jones, and Bielema are recieving a combined $20 million in severance, there is money to pay the players.

04/25/2018 - 6:05pm Interesting article on 538

Interesting article on 538 about why spending a top pick on Barkley could be a mistake. 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/heres-why-drafting-saquon-barkley-…

Sure he could be a great RB, but a lot of the value in draft picks is getting great production at a much lower price than a free agent would command.   So it's more valuable to get a pick at a position that commands top dollar like QB or DL.

04/20/2018 - 3:12pm While they take lighter loads

While they take lighter loads during the season, they tend to be on campus all year round taking classes.  So for 120 credits to a degree, most students do 15 a semester and graduate after 8 semesters.  If football players do 12 credits in the fall semester, 16 in the winter and then 8 each half of the summer term, they have 44 credits and are on track for graduating in 3 years.

Additionally, more football players are enrolling early, so they get an extra winter and summer of classes under their belts.  Coupled with advisors who can help them optimize their schedules so they are always making progress towards their degree, it's not hard to fit in a full degree in 3 years.

04/19/2018 - 6:36pm Is the general consensus that

Is the general consensus that Bush will go pro if he plays well this year?  I was hoping that due to his size he'd need a productive senior season to get drafted highly.

04/03/2018 - 4:32pm Good shots that don't go in

Good shots that don't go in are still the correct shot to take.  Letting an opposing player shoot a 25% shot even if he's "hot" is still the correct play.

04/03/2018 - 3:57pm There are a lot of factors at

There are a lot of factors at play.  How is Michigan shooting?  How many guys do you keep in to get the rebound?  How good of a defensive rebounding team is the opponent?  What is the disparity between regular offense and transition offense for the opponent?  

It's a lot to look at, and I doubt the stats are conclusive in either direction.

04/03/2018 - 3:53pm Because Beilein feels that

Because Beilein feels that defense is more important than offensive rebounds.  They had one of the best transition defenses in the country this year and don't want to give up easy points trying to get rebounds.  

04/03/2018 - 2:51pm That's what I was thinking. 

That's what I was thinking.  One of those things that upsets fans but is the right play.  Just like Beilein wanting his shooters to shoot if they get a good look even if they are 0/5 during the game.

04/03/2018 - 2:36pm But that's what I'm

But that's what I'm wondering.  Do you just give him the bad shot in the hopes that he starts missing 75% or pressure him and increase his chances on drives to the basket?

04/03/2018 - 2:11pm I was thinking about the deep

I was thinking about the deep pull up 3s.  I didn't think they were high % shots but I wonder what advanced stats say about a player who is hitting them in a game.  Should you change how you guard him? Should you make it easier for him to drive to the rim, or give him that shot in the hopes that he reverts to hitting them at the 25% they are?

03/23/2018 - 11:30am I read elsewhere that

I read elsewhere that Michigan''s defensive strategy changed a bit in the second half.  They focused on not giving up 3s or letting A&M get FTs to prevent them from getting back into the game.  It was a bit of a bend but don't break strategy because the clock was their biggest ally when up 20+.

03/20/2018 - 11:20am Maybe similar to Furbush

Maybe similar to Furbush where he is often blitzing to act like a 4th DL in the 3-3-5 and keep the other LBs clean on their blitzes. He's listed as 6'3" and 250 so he's heavier than Furbush though a bit shorter.  Should be able to knock some OL back or off balance if he hits them with a running start.

02/13/2018 - 8:21am Just looked up his career

Just looked up his career trajectory, which has been kind of weird.  Went from OSU DB coach to Arkansas DB  to Purdue DB coach before getting the DC job at Temple.  Don't know much about Temple personel but they got 20 spots worse in S&P+ under him.  But just because he wasn't great as a DC, doesn't mean he isn't a solid DB coach and recruiter.  Though it does look like a step down from Coombs.

02/03/2018 - 7:27pm How does a white person get

How does a white person get arrested for weed?

02/02/2018 - 1:05pm One other important item to

One other important item to take from this is how often abusers are people you know and your parents trust. The risks of "stranger danger" are much lower than we are led to believe by the media. The large majority of abuse cases are by family friends or relatives.