Stanford vs ND: Situational Analysis
So, that was a somewhat scary final minute in which ND might have pulled it off. It could have easily been prevented.
Stanford had a 1st and Goal from about the 3.5 with 1:00 left on the clock (stopped for ND time out). ND had one time out remaining.
Harbaugh had two options:
Pound it in, guaranteed on first play, cutting about 1 second off clock. He did this.
OR
Kneel on first down, drawing Weis's last time out, or running clock down to :30ish. Kneel on 2nd down, after which Weis will HAVE to use his TO if he didn't already. Run on 3rd down, leaving at MOST 15 seconds on the clock. Call a quick TO yourself if somehow you are kept out of the end zone (unlikely because it's ND). Boom, limit ND's last drive to 15 seconds.
Thoughts?
November 28th, 2009 at 11:29 PM ^
How is this for a situational analysis:
Option 1- Add thoughts to one of the two existing treads on this game or
Option 2- Start another useless thread?
Thoughts?
November 28th, 2009 at 11:30 PM ^
easy like sunday morning
November 28th, 2009 at 11:31 PM ^
Double Ms. I was thinking the same thing... it was a chip shot and they could have run the clock down and won it then...there is no such thing as a sure thing.... and in a way, it was sweeter to win by stopping ND in the end...let your defense step up, which they did..
so, IMO...the strategy could have worked but you play to win... you dont play not to lose so I dont blame them for doing what they did. It worked.
November 28th, 2009 at 11:36 PM ^
I could picture Harbaugh thinking of it in a punch-in-the-gut sense like he did to USC:
"I'm sitting on your 3, with a 7.2 YPC running back. I have 3 TO's and 4 downs, there's a minute left... how can I make you suffer most through the last few minutes of your career?"
November 28th, 2009 at 11:30 PM ^
It's not a bad idea to go with the second option, but I'd guess at least 95% coaches won't do it. Going for the sure score eliminates any chances of something going wrong.
November 28th, 2009 at 11:48 PM ^
recently, and i'd suspect that made it a no brainer for him to go the "conventional" play call
November 28th, 2009 at 11:49 PM ^
That's the first time I recall seeing a defensive team allow a gimme TD like that. I think it was the right call; I just don't remember seeing it before.
Nice to see ND get the U-M treatment when trying to snap with 12 Cardinal on the field -- no call + sack = fun.
November 28th, 2009 at 11:55 PM ^
The Packers did it vs. the Broncos in the Superbowl almost 12 years ago...they let Terrell Davis walk in so Favre could get the ball and have time...and it almost worked as Favre took them down close but the drive ended.
November 29th, 2009 at 12:31 AM ^
Illinois was up 28-27 and in position to run the clock down to maybe ~10-15 seconds if we held them to fourth down. Mich calls timeout on 2nd. Next play, touchdown Illinois, putting the Illini up eight, 35-27 with ~1 minute to go.
Tom Brady promptly marched us to the Illini 20. On first down, a diving David Terrell couldn't quite haul in the TD catch as the ball grazed off his outstretched fingers. On second down, Brady threw an INT (which was ruled a safety).
Had the Illini RB gone down past the sticks, the game was OVER, for sure. By scoring, he gave Mich a very realistic shot at a comeback.
November 29th, 2009 at 1:20 AM ^
I remember that. (It was the possession immediately after the wild shotgun snap that killed our previous drive when we were in FG range.) I think there would have been more time left than that if we'd stopped them on 3rd down, but I'm not certain. I'm pretty sure we didn't let him get the first down on purpose, but once he got it, he raced untouched the rest of the way to the endzone. It's possible that we were coached to let him score if he got the first, but I suspect we really just caught a break.
In the 2005 OSU game, we were faced with almost exactly the same situation as ND tonight: OSU had first and goal with about a minute left. We probably should have let them score right away. We didn't - we stopped them on first down, and then gave up the TD on second down, leaving us with 25 or so seconds left to go the length of the field.
November 29th, 2009 at 1:21 AM ^
The big potential downside to your proposal is that it increases the likelihood of the possession ending in a field goal. (Keep in mind that when you take a knee, you lose yardage.) If you only get a FG there, you could lose in regulation - it's not likely, of course, but it could happen. If you get the auto-TD, you're basically guaranteed overtime (unless the opposing coach is super ballsy and wants to go for two after a score).
The other issue is just that weird things can happen on placekicks, and coaches generally (and probably rightly so) try to avoid having games come down to them if they can. You could get a bad snap, or protect poorly, or the kicker could slip . . . whatever. Imagine if a coach were to take two knees, go for the TD on 3rd down and fail, and then have his kicker miss the ensuing 25-yard FG. He'd be roasted alive.
November 29th, 2009 at 8:57 AM ^
Maybe not kneel and then lose yardage, but run and then land squarely on like the 1/2 yard line intentionally... QB sneak that won't make it, or something.
November 29th, 2009 at 2:21 AM ^
when I read this was a flashback of first-and-goal from the one in the M-Illinois game a few short weeks ago.
November 29th, 2009 at 10:18 AM ^
*shudders* i had that blocked from my memory.