Other Hockey Games - Friday Conference Tourneys
Our game @ FYS is Sat @ 8 PM ET on BTN, but there are other games today:
ECACT
St. Lawrence (#45 PWR) 0, Quinnipiac (#7) 0, end of one.
Dartmouth (#26) vs Cornell (#15), 7:30 PM
HET
UMass (#12) 1, BC (#1) 1, late 1st.
Maine (#6) vs BU (#2), 7:30 PM
NCHCT
NoDak (#3) vs UNO (#11), 5 PM
Denver (#4) vs St. Cloud St (#16), 8:30 PM
CCHAT
MTU (#35) vs Bemidji St (#31), 8:07 PM
What's a Bemidji? Is it related to Benji?
According to Minnesota Geographic Names, its name derives from the Ojibwe Buh-mid-ji-ga-maug (Double-Vowel orthography: bemijigamaag),[8] meaning "a lake with crossing waters"
Per Wikipedia.
Yet in the Souix family of languages it meant "place of people with incontinent bowels"...
Then again the Souix and Ojibwa did not get along all the time.
Do we have preferences?
Maybe Quinnipiac losing today? They're @ #7. Their losing means a bid stealer from ECAC. But is that bad if we then lose tomorrow? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
[Edit] But otherwise everyone below us can go ahead and lose.
[Edit 2] If Cornell should beat Quinnipiac in the final tomorrow, they could be a high enough seed that it's not a bid steal? ECAC would get two bids?
It depends on your definition of “bid steal.” The only way Cornell gets in is by winning the ECAC, and that reduces the remaining at-large spots by 1. They’d be higher-seeded than an at-large team, but it’s still kind of a bid steal.
in any case, looks like QPac is going down today, so Colorado College is going to be out.
I'd say if they rise high enough to get an at large, then it's not a bid steal. It'd be a bid steal if they were still low enough to be out without the autobid, and another conference team still gets an at large.
Let's define a Michigan bid stealer as an automatic qualifier that finishes in the pairwise behind Michigan. (They would get in before Michigan.) Conversely, should a team currently behind Michigan win their conference but jump Michigan in the process, then let's define that as a non-Michigan bid stealer. A single team presently behind Michigan can push Michigan down one spot by either taking an automatic qualifier spot while finishing behind Michigan or by jumping Michigan whether they win their conference tournament or not. A single team can't push Michigan down two spots.
A team behind Michigan is still alive in all 5 of the other leagues (all but the B1G). And the College Hockey News shows Michigan with a 0.7% chance of falling to 12th in their worst-case scenario final pairwise.
https://www.collegehockeynews.com/ratings/probabilityMatrix.php
Fortunately, the pairwise probability has Michigan 100% in. From this, we can infer that Michigan falling to 12th would have to involve a team currently behind Michigan winning their tournament to jump Michigan in the simulation. Which means at most there can be four Michigan bid thieves pushing any 13-16 at-large team out of the NCAA tournament.
The other real world possibility is that the 7,632 Monte Carlo simulations weren't enough to generate a tournament champion in all 5 leagues from teams behind Michigan. (There are sure to be 2 as the CCHA and Atlantic Hockey leagues have only teams behind Michigan.) But this would be entering a literal "So you're saying there's a chance" territory.
I think the one "local" team that might be a little worried would be Western Michigan.
I'm most scenarios, they're in (I believe I saw 91% earlier this week, with 30 % chance of getting the final 3-seed). But they have to be a bit nervous after seeing Omaha beat N.Dakota.
% Matrix says WMU 100% in, 19% to fall to #13.
Thanks, which game result(s) locked the Broncos in?
Probably Umass losing to BC. I think UMass is now the bubble team, but they can only be knocked out by St. Cloud.
EDIT: I played with the pairwise predictor and found a scenario where Colorado College gets in over UMass, but in any case, it seems like Western is safe, and probably in the 12 spot unless Cornell wins the ECAC.
Thanks for the info. Although my favorite college hockey team is Michigan, I'm a Western alum and occasionally take in a WMU game.
I guess UMass losing, dropped from #13 to 14.
FYI, CBS Sports Network has both NCHC games today on cable. NESN has the Hockey East games, and everything else, you're out of luck.
St. Lawrence scored in 2nd, 1-0 them, mid 2nd.
UMass 1, BC 2, early mid 2nd.
St. Lawrence scored again, 2-0 over Quinnipiac, late 2nd.
BC rolling, 4-1 over UMass, late 2nd.
[Edit] BC 5-1, later 2nd. NoDak scored 1-0 over UNO, late 1st.
[Edit 2] UNO on the board before 1st ended, 1-1, end of one. Qpac has 0 after two, needs to get going.
Don’t want to play Quinippiac three years in a row. Hope we get a different matchup
Qpac still trailing 0-2 getting late in 3rd. BC scores more, 7-1 early mid 3rd.
UNO & NoDak tied 1-1 early mid 2nd. [Edit] After update UNO 2-1.
Down goes Quinnipiac! Down goes Quinnipiac! Down goes Quinnipiac! 3-0 final.
Still an at large, though. Currently #9.
So we are playing one of Maine, Denver or UND in the first round then. I’m sure the committee would love for UND to win the NCHC and set up a UND-Minnesota-Omaha regional in Sioux Falls, but I don’t think it’s going to happen. If UND loses tonight I think we will play them in the first round unless Cornell wins the ECAC and gets to the 3 seed band.
March 22nd, 2024 at 10:22 PM ^
Impressive: St. Lawrence has a chance to make the tournament with a ranking of 40 in the pairwise. Before the ECAC tournament started they were at 51.
Did BC use up its goals? 8-1 win. UNO up 3-1, late 2nd.
[Edit] NoDak scored, UNO 3, NoDak 2, end of two.
Went to see the Wings beat the Isles last night. Great to see Larkin come back from injury and score two goals. Andrew Copp was the number one star. Compher was good as well. How blessed are we to watch these Wolverines at the terrific Yost Arena and see the start of some great NHL careers.
Copper on the door step. #LGRW pic.twitter.com/VqvMCbSLM8
— Detroit Red Wings (@DetroitRedWings) March 22, 2024
— Detroit Red Wings (@DetroitRedWings) March 22, 2024
DYLAN LARKIN!!! #LGRW pic.twitter.com/R5UE3uPSXF
— Detroit Red Wings (@DetroitRedWings) March 22, 2024
Love to C it. pic.twitter.com/TalhsIKyLa
— Detroit Red Wings (@DetroitRedWings) March 22, 2024
Copper with his second of the night! #LGRW pic.twitter.com/zpDG2FIP5w
— Detroit Red Wings (@DetroitRedWings) March 22, 2024
That's our Cap. #LGRW pic.twitter.com/mfAQn74fci
— Detroit Red Wings (@DetroitRedWings) March 22, 2024
Love those garbage goals! Larkin's empty netter was a nice shot too.
I love that reverse angle shot showing the gaping empty net, and Copper has time to bring the puck from the side to in front and scoop it in.
UNO scores early in 3rd, 4-2 over NoDak.
[Edit] Each score, 5-3 UNO, late mid 3rd.
Omaha now leads N Dakota 5-3 with just 5 minutes remaining.
[Edit: now 6-3, empty net goal]
Dammit, NoDak, you had one job!
So UNO ties us in PCWs, we're still slightly ahead in RPI. If we lose, then I think we swap places.
[Edit] 41% for us to fall a spot. But UNO could still lose tomorrow to Denver-St. Cloud St winner.
Does it really matter though? We're essentially locked into a 3-seed, and can only play non-B1G 2-seeds anyway, so it doesn't seem like being 10 or 11 makes much of a difference...
Dartmouth 1, Cornell 0, late 1st. Maine 0, BU 1, late mid 1st.
What kind of degenerate Michigan hockey fan would tune in to St. Cloud State/Denver on Friday night?
Me.
Can’t wait for tomorrow night. Go Blue!
So QPac blowing it means the ECAC is highly likely to have a bid stealer right? Cornell is right on the cut line
Looks like UMass is in sweating now after losing to BC
Cornell has its work cut out for itself, down 3-1 to Dartmouth [late mid 2nd].
[Edit] And still 3-1 after two.
BU up 2-0 over Maine, end of two. St. Cloud St & Denver tied at 2, late 1st.
MTU 2, Bemidji St 1, mid 2nd.
So, not following college hockey as a whole, I missed the news from last summer that ASU is joining the NCHC effective this July 1st.
Wow, St. Cloud St scores early in the period again, lead 3-2. Can Denver respond like in the 1st?
[Edit] Yes, PPG, 3-3. (Early mid 2nd)
Cornell scored in 3rd, down 3-2, early mid 3rd.
Maine scored, down 2-1 mid 3rd. [Edit] Then BU scores, 3-1.
Alternating goals continue, St. Cloud St PPG, 4-3.
Oops, St. Cloud St bad hit, under review, 10:31 left in 2nd. 5 min major for Checking from Behind.
[Edit] Big kill, but can SCSU break the pattern and score the next goal?
March 22nd, 2024 at 10:05 PM ^
Wow, big 3rd for Cornell, 4 goals so far, now up 5-3, late 3rd.
March 22nd, 2024 at 10:07 PM ^
And Denver equalizes late in 2nd, 4-4.
March 22nd, 2024 at 10:10 PM ^
BU 4-1 over Maine, final. Cornell 6-3 over Dartmouth, final.
[Edit] 5 goals in 3rd for Cornell. Talk about doing what it takes to keep your season going. But did they score too many? Still need to beat St. Lawrence.
[Edit 2] % Matrix <oops, updated again>
March 22nd, 2024 at 10:28 PM ^
Watching this SCS/Denver game, it occurs to me that (big) IF first round NCAA tournament games were played on home ice, a conference ‘final four’ tournament weekend at a neutral site would be kinda cool.
March 22nd, 2024 at 10:29 PM ^
MTU 2, Bemidji St 1, final.
March 22nd, 2024 at 11:00 PM ^
SCSU & Denver 4-4, going to OT.
March 22nd, 2024 at 11:27 PM ^
Denver breaks the pattern with OT winner.