WolInEx's BCS Analysis
Picking up from last year, I'll be starting a weekly analysis on the BCS standings since we're getting close to the time it actually starts to matter and the variables get reduced. First, your updated BCS standings:
1) Oregon
2) Auburn
3) TCU
4) Boise St
5) Utah
6) Alabama
So what this means is:
- Oregon and Auburn / Alabama likely control their destiny. Oregon more so, since they have no real roadblocks on the way to a #1 or #2 BCS ranking. Auburn may jump them at the end if they beat Bama and win the SEC, but the Ducks got a slot if they keep winning.
- I still think Alabama will jump all the non-AQ teams if they beat Auburn and win the SEC champ game. Voting pools still make a huge portion of the polls and I have a hard time thinking more "traditional" college football pollsters will not move Bama up considerably with those two wins, and the computers are going to give Bama a big time trampoline-like bounce with potential wins against Auburn and an SEC champ game opponent.
- The non-AQ is playing out as I thought a couple weeks ago. For a slot opposite Oregon or Auburn/Bama should one of the two slip up, it's the TCU/Utah winner, not Boise St. the computers and voters are more impressed with TCU's quality wins at this point over Boise St, and the game against Utah is going to far outweigh any bump in computers's Boise's going to get from either Hawaii or Nevada.
- I also think though, that you're looking at 2 non-AQ's in BCS at large berths. So with that, we're looking at (10 bids overall):
Auto-bids
BCS CHAMP 1: Oregon
BCS CHAMP 2: Auburn
ACC: Va Tech/ FSU winner (likely only 1 team)
BIG EAST: Pittsburgh? (Do we have to?)
BIG TEN: Wisconsin or Iowa or tOSU at this point, but more thoughts below
SEC: see above
BIG 12: Nebraska / Mizzou / Oklahoma winner (likely 1 team)
PAC 10: see above
Fill- in for Auburn's SEC (champ slot replacement rules): (1 loss) Alabama
Fill-in for Oregon's PAC-10 (champ slot replacment rules): Stanford / Arizona
At-Large 1: TCU / Utah winner
At-Large 2: Boise St
Games:
BCS Championship: Oregon v Auburn
Rose Bowl: Stanford/Arizona v. Wisconsin/Iowa/tOSU
Orange Bowl: Va Tech / FSU v. TCU
Sugar Bowl: Alabama v. Pitt
Fiesta Bowl: Okl/Neb/Mizz vs. Boise St
Big Ten: At this point, I think the Big Ten is likely the conference to get most screwed. Lets say Alabama beats Auburn, I still think both the SEC champ game winner AND a 1-loss Auburn get BCS bids. Sugar Bowl's going to take an SEC team if at all humanly possible to replace Auburn's slot. The fill in for Oregon's slot is probably going to be the Pac-10 runner up so the Rose Boel gets it Big Ten v Pac-10 matchup. Both an undefeated TCU/Utah and an undefeated Boise St are probably for to autoqualify for a BCS at-large slot taking one of the second conference slots from the Big Ten. The second team from the Iowa/Wiscy/tOSU triumverate are going to have to hope for a loss by either (TCU and Utah) or Boise St.
Outlook:
- Big games left really are Alabama v Auburn and Boise St vs. Hawaii or Boise v Nevada. TCU v Utah is big terms of who gets a loss, but really, the winner of that should be able to win out and secure themselves a BCS at large slot. Th eonly real drama about TCU . v Utah is that if Utah wins, then Boise probably has the top non-AQ slot from voters, Utah has the top non-AQ slot from computers, and the difference in BCS standings will be miniscule.
- The Iron Bowl is really shaping up as football armageddon 2010. Should Auburn win, they're either the BCS champ rep or the SEC at-large depending on the result of the SEC champ game, but really, Alabama's probably out at that point. If Bama wins, then we are on the verge of absolute chaos. Bama wins the SEC championship, they're probably in the BCS champ with a whole lot of wailing/gnashing of teeth jumping over non-AQ's & 1-loss Oklahoma/Neb. A loss by Bama in the SEC championship and we probably have the first non-AQ in the championship game, most likely TCU, not Boise.
October 31st, 2010 at 9:23 PM ^
Bama would not jump over Boise/TCU/Utah. The computer poll would do it but human voters wouldn't do it IMO.
October 31st, 2010 at 9:50 PM ^
i wouldn't put it past the voters. i've seen similar things happen too many times to doubt it.
who has boise st. played? /s
October 31st, 2010 at 9:31 PM ^
If Oregon goes to the MNC game then the Rose Bowl has to take a non-AQ team
October 31st, 2010 at 9:41 PM ^
has stated in the past they prefer a Big 10/Pac 10 matchup. Most likely they would go with Stanford
October 31st, 2010 at 10:51 PM ^
Unfortunately they changed the access rules so it's no longer what the Rose Bowl prefers:
Beginning this fall, the first time the Rose Bowl loses the Big Ten champ or Pac-10 champ to the BCS title game, it must take a team from a non-automatic qualifying conference if that team earns a BCS berth.
http://espn.go.com/blog/ncfnation/post/_/id/23793/access-change-makes-rose-bowl-like-others
October 31st, 2010 at 10:59 PM ^
That's a lousy rule! So we could enjoy a TCU vs Wisconsin/Iowa/tOSU Rose Bowl?
October 31st, 2010 at 11:02 PM ^
Fortunately It can happen only once in a 4 year BCS cycle. But it's extremely likely that it will happen, starting with this year if Oregon makes the MNC game
And don't discredit TCU/Boise St. I think both those teams could give any of the big 10 teams a good game and possibly win
October 31st, 2010 at 9:33 PM ^
I have to agree with the computers regarding TCU's schedule. While not exactly up to SEC, Pac 10, or Big Ten standards, it isn't all that far off from say a typical Big East or ACC schedule as of late.
You have an Oregon State team that's 3-1 in the Pac 10 (only loss in double OT). That one will probably look worse after the Beavers have USC, Stanford, and Oregon to close the season. (EDIT: TCU) crushed a Baylor team who's already bowl eligible and might compete for the Big 12 title and had a convincing win over an SMU team that went to a bowl game last year. BYU and Air Force have their ups and downs - they're kinda like a Minnesota or Illinois, terrible some years, okay others. Plus, there is the upcoming game against Utah. That leaves 6 total creampuffs.
For Boise, that Virginia Tech win keeps getting better, and the Broncos played the same Oregon State team. Nevada is still hanging around in the Top 25. Howeva, the other 9 games on their schedule are absolute doormats - good move to get out of that conference (though with the realignment, their conference next year will not be much better).
October 31st, 2010 at 9:40 PM ^
If Iowa beats OSU doesn't MSU get the bid? 3 way tie between iowa, wisc, and msu. None of the three teams beat the other two so iowa gets eliminated by virtue of having the worst overall record because of their nonconference loss to zona which leaves wisconsin and msu and msu won the head to head matchup
October 31st, 2010 at 11:02 PM ^
Yes. If Iowa beat OSU and MSU wins out, MSU goes to the Rose Bowl.
October 31st, 2010 at 9:42 PM ^
would be an abomination to great defensive coaches everywhere.
On the other hand it would be mega fun
November 1st, 2010 at 12:25 AM ^
At least not ahead of the Big Ten. For one, the Fiesta gets last pick of teams that aren't locked into a particular bowl (in other words, they get the Big East champ) and neither the Orange nor the Sugar are likely to be thrilled with taking a team that has to travel out from the west coast. (Especially true of the Orange.) There's a good chance both TCU/Utah and Boise go, but I think the other two at-larges will be from the SEC (assuming things don't really go bonkers in the West - which they might, never underestimate the chaos potential of The Hat) and the Big Ten. Remember, the Big XII title-game loser will have two losses, and it's very likely that the Big Ten will have multiple one-loss teams.
November 1st, 2010 at 7:25 AM ^
I forgot to double check, but a couple things:
1) thanks for the update on the non-AQ must take scenario. That would impact the Rose Bowl and likely mean that if Oregon wins out, the Pac-10 isn't sending 2 BCS teams (I'll update this in next week's entry)
2) Iowa and tOSU play Nov 20. That will knock one of the two out of the discussion.
3) MSU does own the tie breakers over everybody except Iowa for multiple 1-conference loss teams to get the Rose Bowl bid. If the Big ten wants two BCS teams, I'm thinking the most probable road for that is MSU, Wisconsin, AND tOSU finishing with 1 conference loss each allowing MSU to get the Rose and Wiscy/tOSU both as attractive at-large bids.
4) Also, remember that no conference can get more than 2 BCS teams, so there's no chance the SEC can get 3 teams in the BCS. It's Auburn and then maybe LSU or Alabama... not both since they play this week and you'll either have LSU with 2 losses or Alabama with 2 losses (and no chance at making the SEC championship game since Auburn will be up two game on them going into the Iron Bowl). LSU wins and wins out, they'll probably nab the 2nd SEC BCS slot. Bama wins and teh scenario still exists from my OP about them being nat'l title contenders.
November 1st, 2010 at 9:51 AM ^
I have seen this multiple times, but I don't get it. I expect them to run the table too, but they still have 4 games left. One of these games is against a top 20 team and another is away against their archrival. Again, I expect them to win out as well, but it's hardly a fait accompli.
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