What to Expect for Remainder of BIG TEN MBB Season

Submitted by HopeInHoke on February 13th, 2014 at 12:28 AM

Summary:

Team Record Home Home Wins Home Losses Home Remaining Away Away Wins Away Losses Away Remaining Play Once
UM 10-2 5-0 NW, PSU, IOWA, PURD, NEB N/A WISC, MSU, MIN, IND 5-2 MINN, NEB, WISC, MSU, OSU IND, IOWA PURD, ILL NW, PSU, @OSU, @ILL
MSU 9-2 4-1 OSU, MINN, IND, PSU UM NW, NEB, ILL, IOWA 5-1 PSU, IND, NW, ILL, IOWA WISC PURD, UM, OSU MINN, @WISC, NEB, @PURD
IOWA 7-4 4-2 NEB, NW, MINN, UM MSU, OSU WISC, PURD, ILL 3-2 OSU, NW, ILL WISC, UM PSU, IND, MINN, MSU NEB, @PSU, IND, PURD
WISC 6-5 3-3 IOWA, ILL, MSU UM, NW, OSU MINN, IND, PURD 3-2 NW, PURD, ILL IND, MINN UM, IOWA, PSU, NEB OSU, MSU, @PSU, @NEB
OSU 6-6 3-3 NEB, ILL, PURD IOWA, PSU, UM NW, MINN, MSU 3-3 PURD, WISC, IOWA MSU, MINN, NEB ILL, PSU, IND @WISC, UM, NW, @IND

Team-by-team mini-analysis:

UM:

·         Holds tie-breaker with MSU currently and ½ game advantage over MSU at the moment

·         Perfect at home in conference but very difficult set of home games left

·         Beat all other top 5 teams except Iowa on the road (makes that lop-sided affair even stranger)

·         Easy road slate left

·         Screwed over playing NW, PSU, and ILL only once and OSU only on road (except that worked out just fine!)

 

MSU:

·         Best road record of group- but only beat Iowa from top-tier and lost @WISC

·         Tough road games left- especially @UM

·         Iowa home game could be hugely critical- beat only 1 of 2 top teams at home so far

·         Neutral-ish set of teams only played once

 

IOWA:

·         1/3 at home against top teams- test against WISC is critical- absolute must-win

·         1/3 on road against top teams also- game against MSU has same stakes as WISC game

·         Screwed over terribly by playing 4 mediocre/bad teams only once

 

WISC:

·         Only play OSU and MSU once and both at home (it seems their schedule is always favorable…)

·         2/4 at home against top group

·         Yet to play road game against top group- UM and Iowa games are absolute must wins

·         Hard to see 5 losses winning conference- and hardest away games left of any top team (MSU is also hard but only 3 games left, and @NEB is no easy game)

 

OSU:

·         Most erratic top team (which is obvious since they are 6-6 I suppose) with 3-3 road and home records

·         No major home victories and beat 2 of top 3 teams on the road

·         MSU game at home only top team left but has lost to both top teams played at home so far

·         Avoid 2 top teams for second game – can only blame inconsistency and lack of home-court dominance for why they have almost no chance of winning conference

 

My random internet guy projections:
UM 14-4 I see UM losing one of the road games in disappointing fashion and one of either MSU or WISC game
MSU 14-4 Iowa at home could be tough, and OSU an UM at home- will lose 2 of those 3
IOWA 12-6 Likely 2 more away losses or at home against WISC
WISC 10-8 Only beating PSU on road and winning all at home or dropping another at Kohl and an upset on road 
OSU 10-8 Other than home at MSU they play all winnable games- but its OSU this year so it seems like they will lose at least one other game

Key for UM:

Win at home!  If we beat MSU we control our destiny and our road slate is very manageable- plus a 4/2 home/road split is very favorable!

Comments

Muttley

February 14th, 2014 at 4:09 PM ^

if Iowa wins out (in the right TBD combination).

Wiscy needs four helper wins if they win out.

OSU needs six helper wins if they win out.  From teams not on this list.  Not happening.

Obviously, it looks like a two team race, but if Iowa wins out, they will be at least in a title chase.