Week 3

Well, Michigan lost in spectacular fashion propelling Notre Dame from 16^th to 11^th in the too early to really tell AP top 25.  In a well predicted loss to Oregon, MSU dropped from 7^th to 13^th making them the highest ranked 1 loss team.  Ohio in turn dropped from 8^th to 22^nd in a satisfying defeat by Virginia Tech who is now ranked 17^th.  The lesson we can take from this is beating Michigan isn’t nearly as profitable as losing to Virginia Tech is bad.  I suppose that is good.

For those of you who can’t wait till Saturday, here is Thursday’s most interesting matchup:

HOU @ BYU:

                Line: +18.5  O/U: 57

Power Rankings: BYU 34  HOU 112

                BYU is coming off a huge win against Texas, 41-7, and have cracked the top 25.  The last meeting against Houston, BYU left with a win 47-46.  Houston’s power ranking dropped 60 points from the first week.  Last year Houston only lost 4 games, this is not the same team as last year.  BYU lost 4 games as well but they also return Taysom Hill.  Hill has 489 passing yards and 196 rushing yard on the season.  Oh, and he spreads the ball around.  Houston defense is in for a surprise.  If you can’t see where I’m going with this, let me help.

BYU to cover

A look around the Big Ten

IND @ BGSU:

                Line: -6  O/U: 69.5

                Power Rankings: IND 77  BGSU 116

Miami (Ohio) @ Michigan

                Line: +29.5  O/U: 53.5

                Power Rankings: MI 36  Miami 110

                This line opened at -31.5.  I expect it to move a little further down.  So, if you like to bet on Michigan, I would wait to see where the line moves.  Also, week three power rankings haven’t come in yet.  When they do, expect to see some movement.  Miami lost their first 2 games of the season against Eastern Kentucky (10-17) and Marshall (27-42).  Remember how good you all felt after Michigan beat the pants of App State?  You won’t feel that way after Michigan destroys Miami, well because…  Still it looks like an easy win, especially coming off an embarrassing loss.  I expect Michigan to take some of last week’s anger out on Miami.  Disclaimer: I don’t bet on Michigan sports.  I refuse to bet against them for one, and I am way too biased.  Since I follow them so religiously, I can always find an insider reason to hype them up.  So, take it for what it’s worth… 

Michigan to Cover

Iowa state @ Iowa

                Line: +12.5  O/U: 49

                Power Rankings:  Iowa 64  Iowa State 78

                Iowa is 2-0 so far this year and 0-2 ATS.  ISU is 0-2 and 1-1 ATS.  ISU lost to K-State last week in a near comeback win.  If the same team shows up against Iowa, I see ISU covering, if not winning outright.  ISU lost in every offensive category against K-State, but managed to gain only 25 less yards through the air.  Iowa has given up 509 passing yards this season.

Iowa State to Win

Minnesota @ TCU

                Line: +10  O/U: 47.5

                Power Rankings:  MINN 41  TCU 31

Purdue Vs. Notre Dame (Neutral Site)

                Line: +28  O/U:  55.5

                Power Rankings: PUR 56  ND 17

Penn State @ Rutgers

                Line: -3.5  O/U: 53

                Power Rankings: PSU 22  Rutgers 62

                This should be an interesting matchup.  PSU is 2-0 ATS and Rutgers is 1-1 ATS.  The last time these two teams met was in 1995 and PSU won 59-34.  PSU is coming off a coin flip win against UCF.  RUTG hasn’t played anyone significant this year and blew a -38 spread against HOW winning 38-25.  I’m not sure Vegas has figured out what to do with this team yet.  Last week they covered +10.5 beating Washington State 41-38.  The line seamed to over react last week; this week Vegas is playing it safe.  I like Rutgers for the outright win. 

Rutgers to Win

Nebraska @ Fresno State

                Line: -10  O/U: 62.5

                Power Rankings: NEB 12   Fresno State 124

                I’m not sure why this line is so close.  Does the Big Ten really have that low of a perception?  I’ll take Nebraska to cover!

Nebraska to Cover

WVU @ Maryland

               Line: +3  O/U: 57.5

                Power Rankings:  MD 81   WVU 108

Kent @ Ohio

                Line: +32  O/U: 50.5

                Power Rankings: OSU 20   Kent 101

                Last time these teams met was in 2007 and Ohio destroyed them 48-3.  Unfortunately for Kent, It looks like this might happen again.  Kent is 0-2 and 0-2 ATS.  Their losses include South Alabama and Ohio (not State).  Also they have been under the last 2 games on the O/U putting up only 13 and 14 points respectively.   Defensively they are ranked 75^th and 94^th in total yards and rushing yards respectively.  Ohio doesn’t even need to do anything in the passing game, but it will open up after the first drive as a result of huge rushing gains.  I would avoid any O/U bets on this one and just take Ohio as a shutout seems likely.   I hate to bet on Ohio, but there is a 72% consensus on this game.  The line is steadily rising as a result, so I wouldn’t wait on this one.

Ohio to Cover

Illinois @ Washington

                Line: +13.5  O/U: 64.5

                Power Rankings:  ILL 76   WASH 42

This week’s top ranked matchup:

Georgia(6) @ South Carolina(23)

                Line: -5.5  O/U: 60

                Power Rankings: Georgia 5(damn)   South Carolina 24

                To put this into perspective, MSU had a power ranking of 4 last week.  Georgia has played a grand total of 1 game this year, but they’re Georgia so… Georgia is 1-0 and 1-0 ATS.  South Carolina is 1-1 and 0-2 ATS.  Georgia has won 6 of 10 of the last meetings, winning last year 41-30.  Georgia put up 536 TOT yards to the Game Cocks’ 454. Here is a look at South Carolina’s offense and Defense.  It’s not pretty.  http://www.covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/ncf/teams/t…

As you can see, this explains why the line has already moved a whole point from yesterday.  Since this is the best matchup of the week, there should be a lot of betting on this one.  The line will probably settle around -6.5.  so get in on this early if you plan on taking Georgia.

Georgia to Cover

Now, your surefire win of the week, guaranteed to make you look stupid and lose you 50 dollars in the office pool:

UL Lafayette @ Mississippi

                Line: +27  O/U: 55.5

                Power Ranikings: MISS 11   ULL 43

                Coming in today with a 78% consensus,  Ole Miss is a 27 point favorite.  MISS is 2-0 and 2-0 ATS.  They destroyed Vanderbilt 41-3 at -17.5 and beat Boise 35-13 at -9.5.  MISS is ranked 27^th def and 33^rd offensively.  The only place they have struggled is on the ground, being ranked 101^st.  ULLis 1-1 and 1-1 ATS.  They are ranked 83^rd defensively and 51 offensively.  ULL only makes 50% of their field goals.  So, if this were to be a close game (it won’t be) I would pay attention to this. 

Under is 4-0 in Ragin' Cajuns last 4 road games. 
Over is 6-0 in Ragin' Cajuns last 6 games in September. 
Over is 5-0 in Ragin' Cajuns last 5 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game. Under is 5-0 in Rebels last 5 games overall. 
Rebels are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Rebels are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. 

This line is on the move.  For some reason Vegas wants people to bet on both sides. Get in at -27 if you want the action.

Ole Miss to cover

My favorite tidbit about OLE MISS…Sammie Epps was suspended indefinitely because he likes to smoke pot and drive without a license.  He had Funchess potential, but prefered the thug life.

So, what are your picks?

Ill update the weekend games o/u as they come out.

·         This was my first go at this. So any input would be appreciated.  Also, next week will include a recap and appropriate shout outs and mockery for those who choose to pick games with me.  I would like to do this as a weekly if I get enough responses.