Michigan Expectations (Survey Results and Analysis)

Submitted by RunTheFootball on February 1st, 2014 at 5:14 PM

Hello again, internet,

I conducted a survey this past week (started on Monday) about how people expected Michigan to perform over any given 20 year period. A big thank you goes out to the 328 MGoUsers who pitched in their opinions. Here are your results. I was going to do fancy stuff like trendlines and variance, but then I got lazy. Sorry.

Each survey question's graph is linked in each section's title, and the analysis lies below each image. I've also included the actual results over the past 20 years (1994-2013).

National Championships

Average Expected: 1.92

Over Last 20 Years: 1

Analysis: The six people who expect a national championship every year do sway the average a bit, but still, this seems high to me. I put 1, but honestly expect 1 every 30-40 years. Of course, I started being a fan in 2008, so my maize-colored glasses are pretty transparent.

B1G Championships

Average Expected: 7.84

Over Last 20 Years: 5

Analysis: I guess this is reasonable. I do think Ohio takes the lion's share of the titles, but we should be a clear 2nd, and closer to 1st than 3rd. As much as I love Michigan, I can't get over the recruiting advantage that OSU has. MSU's emergence and persistance and the addition of Nebraska do lower my expectation a bit, as well.

Beats of Ohio

Average Expected: 10.70

Over Last 20 Years: 7

Analysis: Putting in the 2013 data point was tough, man. Luckily, we're not too far off splitting, despite The StreakTM. I still think Ohio has the edge here because of recruiting, but we should be close to even. Beat Ohio.

Beats of MSU

Average Expected: 14.25

Over Last 20 Years: 12

Analysis: Works for me, 3 every 4. Unless Narduzzi never leaves. Which fuck.

Beats of Minny

Average Expected: 18.41

Over Last 20 Years: 15/16 (didn't play 4 of the years)

Analysis: Again, I became a fan in 2008. I fully expect to beat Minnesota all of the time.

Recruiting

Average Expected: 9.58

Over Last 20 Years: 6.04*

*For this, I collected all of the recruiting team rankings from the 4 major recruiting services (247, Scout, Rivals, ESPN) and found out how many #1 B1G finishes we had for as long as the service was tracking it. Note that 3 of the services' first team rankings were in 2002, and ESPN started in 2006. I then projected our average amount of #1 finishes over 20 years, and then calculated the average over the 4 services.

Analysis: Many people will say (and did say in the survey comments) that conference position doesn't matter, and there's an argument there, sure. I've typed out and deleted a few sentences defending it, but I'm too lazy to start an argument against. Just look at the data, meh.

CONCLUSION: Everyone is unreasonable except me. I'd love to run a similar survey for the other schools' fanbases, but that is an effort for another day.

-RTF

Comments

CarrIsMyHomeboy

February 4th, 2014 at 12:22 AM ^

Regarding the commentary below MSU: 12/20 is not 3/4. It is 3/5. Unless I misunderstood what you meant by "3 every 4."

/hopes tone isn't miscommunicated

/not actively trying to be a dick

/seriously

DMill2782

February 5th, 2014 at 4:02 PM ^

Michigan has won one National Championship since 1948. Two National Championships in 65 years. I love Michigan and I used to expect them to compete for National Championships, but I have come to terms that it's an absolute rarity for them to do so now. I'm currently 31 years old and I just hope that Michigan wins one more before I die. 

rob f

February 6th, 2014 at 10:02 PM ^

What a depressing-sounding last sentence. 

But keep your hopes up, though---I was "already" 41 but not thinking, at any level of my being, of impending personal doom when we won the 1997 National Championship, so you (hopefully) have plenty of time.

 

BeerPongSniper

February 8th, 2014 at 6:13 PM ^

I was about nine years old in '97. I was in Ann Arbor from 2006-2011 and it was pretty much all downhill after the #1-#2 2006 OSU game. Being realistic, I hope to see ONE national championship. I'm not asking for much.

That and a Tigers World Series win. (I'm realistic, so I won't even touch the Lions Super Bowl wishes.)

uminks

February 8th, 2014 at 1:29 AM ^

I consider Michigan the NC in '97! No way the coaches poll should count since it was fixed to give their buddy a share on his way out!

I'm 50 now and I think there is a good chance we will win one with the new playoff system (which will probably be expanded) in the next decade.

xxxxNateDaGreat

February 8th, 2014 at 11:44 AM ^

I think two championships in the next twenty years seems pretty reasonable. I don't expect too many Alabama/USC consecutive titles anymore, especially once the playoff pool expands.

Hell, I think most here on this blog would be happy with spending the majority of two decades lin the top 5/10.

maize-blue

February 9th, 2014 at 10:21 AM ^

I think the focus right now should be on beating MSU and Ohio.

MSU especially, because that fanbase is becoming unsufferable and little bro needs to be put back in his place.

I dumped the Dope

February 11th, 2014 at 11:09 AM ^

If we can get back to the point where the Ohio State game is "the season" in other words steers the path into post season, (or not) etc, then that's going to put us at a statistical level for success.

Don't get me wrong...beating Ohio last fall would have been epic.  A really incredible win.  I loved taking Urban to the Wall, and their cookie crumbled shortly thereafter.  But we were not in contention at that point for anything serious.

I really think that when Bo said, a Michigan Man will coach Michigan, he truly meant that the program didn't need to be rebuilt by someone new...in other words, the program as a whole was functioning at a high level.  To allow it to be opened up to an entirely new staff was just going to dig a hole.  And so we did what the Man said Not To...and look where we are over about 8 years.

Think of it like this.  Change the head coach, and you change the entire program top to bottom.  Change OC or DC or any other assistant and there's like a little tweak and the program marches on. 

There's a responsibility, which I pin squarely on the Donald R. Shepherd Athletic Director himself, to ensure that there's another junior HC on the staff who can step up, and carry the program forward if and when that time comes up.  That's tough, because assistants want to jump around like grasshoppers trying to move up.  And while I recognize that produces a diverse resume, to allow the entire program's staff (save the RB coach) and everything on down to change isn't something I want to live thru again.

DrMGoBlue

February 18th, 2014 at 9:35 PM ^

Some of the results really surprised me, especially that MSU one. 3/4 certainly is good enough. I'm sure there would be stints where we go 4/4 too. Maybe even 5/5 or more.