The Intro to the Intro: Way of an Apology:

I'll start this week’s entry with an apology. I didn't post anything last week. I had every intention to do so, but time got away from me. My soon-to-be-wife and I had some social commitments throughout the week, and then my family started showing up on Wednesday in preparation for a race that we all ran together this past weekend. Before they arrived, I managed to put together “The Week Before” and I made predictions on three of the seven games, but I didn’t write enough to comprehensively make a prediction on the other four games, and I never wrote an introduction. Thus, I felt it wasn’t enough to post, and decided to just skip out on the week. I may have learned my lesson here: it's better to publish than it is to fail. My most sincere apologies to anyone who was looking forward to reading it so they could know what they shouldn't bet based on what I told them to do. We’re back at it this week, though, and looking to get some momentum heading into the last weeks of the season.

The Intro: The Michigan Marathon

I ran a marathon for the second time in my life this past weekend. It felt a lot like watching one of this year’s Michigan football games. Here are some similarities I noticed.

(1) Both Michigan football and I like to run more than most others. The most common reaction I receive when I tell people I’m running a marathon is: “Why would you do that?” Sometimes, I go into my whole spiel about how humans evolved to be great runners due to their ability to sweat, their upright stance, long legs, large buttocks. But, usually, I just say: “Because then I can eat and drink whatever I want.” Also, if you do something enough, and you get pretty good at it––I’m pretty good at running at this point––it's fun to do, for you. Michigan should run the football more.

(2) Both a marathon (for me, at least) and a Michigan football game take about 3 to 3.5 hours. Back in 2019, I ran Grandma’s Marathon in 3:05:35, and I ran Big Bear Marathon on Saturday in 3:17:56 (reasoning: I am 10 pounds fatter today than I was three years ago; I had less time to train because I’m working more; I also just trained less; and I stupidly drank a liter of water an hour before the race, which sloshed around in my stomach and made me stop to diarrhea at miles 3, 5, 7, and 9). I can’t say for sure exactly how long Michigan’s games are (because the replays on Big Ten Plus cut out the commercials), but somewhere around 3:15:00 feels pretty spot on.

(3) Both Michigan football and I perform better in the second halves of our contests than in the firsts. In the first halves of my two marathons, I averaged a 1:40:14 time (7:39 pace). In the second halves of the race, I averaged a 1:31:21 time (6:58 pace). In the first halves of their games, Michigan has scored an average of 20.3 points and allowed an average of 6.4 points (+13.9 points per 1st half). In the second halves of their games, Michigan has scored an average of 21.1 points and allowed an average of 4.8 points (+15.3 points per 2nd half). You could say that we both understand that our contests are marathons, not sprints.

(4) Both Michigan football and I are not much fun to watch. The only dramatic moments of marathons are [ a ] Mile 20-22, when people start to hit The Wall and fall apart, and [ b ] The Finish Line, because some have fallen apart and are literally being dragged across the finish line by friends. Thankfully, I’ve never had such struggles, so I’m kind of boring to watch (especially because I don't have the prettiest stride) unless you know me personally and are actively rooting for me specifically to cross the finish line. The same can be said for Michigan football: if you don’t know the team (you don’t watch them every week religiously), they're not really fun to watch. They don’t air it out. They don’t pull any frippery. They just get to work, do their jobs, and win the game. That isn’t even really all that fun for some serious Michigan fans nowadays. I tend to enjoy it.

(5) Both Michigan football and I have areas of our game in which we could improve if we want to reach our zeniths. On the whole, someone might look at my marathon times or Michigan’s scores and say, “Wow! Really great job!” But I, for example, should not have drank that liter of water an hour before the race. I also should’ve drank less beer and eaten healthier during my training. I should’ve stretched more, and I should’ve run more hills to prep for a very downhill marathon, which beat the hell out of my legs. Michigan, on the other hand, needs JJ McCarthy to start putting some more air under his deep balls. The wide receivers could make a couple bigger plays to bail JJ out sometimes. The defensive line needs to figure out who’s attacking the QB and who’s keeping contain on him when their buddy does. DJ Turner could play a little bit better, as we expected him to, in man-on-man coverage. Overall, we’re both doing great, but we also could both be doing better than we are, and I think we all know it.

I'm not being a downer. I'm just trying to point out truths.

I love Michigan football. I love myself. Mostly.

The Week Before:

Game (with bet) [Win/Loss/Push] (Result) [Units]

(Note: Only three games to cover, as I only had predictions for three solidified in my draft.)

Indiana at Ohio State (-37.5) (O 53.5) [Win] (-42) (70) [+9 units]

The above may be difficult to read, so let’s parse it out: I parlayed an alternate spread (OSU -37.5) and an alternate total (Over 53.5) to get roughly -110 odds. Since both of those hit (OSU won by 42 points and there were 70 total points), my prediction was correct. Yay! (Shout out to LeCheezus for this winning strategy.) Very little to say here. RB Miyan Williams was having a career game in the first half before he was hurt, and the Buckeyes still covered the spread. Allowing 14 points to Indiana (two touchdowns?) just seems odd to me. Let's do some math: 31 divided by 10 is 3.1. And 5.2 divided by 14 is something like 3.7. So, we're still the worse team, in Indiana Terms. Does that mean anything?

Purdue at Illinois (O 44.5) [Win] (55) [+9 units]

Another one bites the dust! Thankfully, I predicted the over rather than laying the points. In truth, this could’ve gone even more over than it already did; Purdue turned it over on downs on their first drive at the Illinois 26, missed a FG from the Illinois 27 on their next drive, and later in the game only managed a FG after Illinois QB Tommy DeVito threw a pick at his own 33 yard line. Meanwhile, the Fighting Illini also failed to convert when QB Aidan O’Connell threw a pick at his own 47, and later punted from the Purdue 44 (admittedly, on 4th and 10, so can’t be mad about that one). Purdue’s defense was stingier than I thought (4.1 YPC with sacks removed and just 6.3 YPA through the air), and Illinois had no answer for TE Payne Durham (7 receptions for 70 yards and 2 TDs, with 3 missed tackles and 3 contested catches).

Nebraska at Michigan (U 49) [Win] (37) [+9 units]

This one felt like an easy call. The weather nasty, Michigan’s passing game has been “struggling” of late, and all they wanna do is run, run, run and bleed the clock. Nebraska was playing their backup QBs, and couldn’t muster anything on the ground against this vaunted run defense. This certainly could’ve gone over if (a) on Michigan’s third drive, after a Corum 12 yard run for a first down, McCarthy doesn't throw three straight incompletions leading to a punt, (b) Michigan manages the clock better at the end of the first half and comes away with a touchdown rather than a field goal, (c) on their first drive of the second half, Michigan runs on 3rd and 5 to set up 4th and very short, rather than allowing McCarthy to be sacked to set up a punt, and (d) other wild shit happens. That’s a lot of “ifs”, though.

The Overview

Well, going 3-0 isn’t that bad, is it!? What was the secret sauce, you ask? Was it only writing about three games rather than trying to cram in stuff on seven? Was it the fact that I didn’t post a blog at all, and thus there was no real pressure? Am I just lying to you about how I did so you still think I have an ounce of credibility with my predictions? Who knows!?

The Week Ahead: We Think about the Weather

A quick reminder that I use the Vegas Insider Consensus (from vegasinsider.com) spreads, totals, and money lines. They are current as of the time the diary is posted. You should be able to get better odds/spreads/totals/money lines if you look at multiple sports books.

Also, I want to stress that this diary is ideally intended more for entertainment than it is for profitable advice. Do your own research. Take my words with many grains of salt because I truthfully have no clue what I'm talking about. You’ve been warned. Gamble responsibility.

Illinois at Michigan (-17.5) [Total: 41.5]

When the Fighting Illini have the ball: Just because you’re a bell cow doesn’t mean you’re particularly good at producing milk. Also, if you’re a bell cow, the more challenging it becomes to produce quality milk if you're milked all the damn time (at least this is what I imagine, but I grew up in a very residential part of Ann Arbor and not on a dairy farm). This strained analogy pertains to Illinois star RB Chase Brown. He put up at least 5.2 YPC in each of his first five games of the year, but has yet to post anything better than 4.7 YPC in his last five games, which have come against the 50th, 18th, 99th, 77th, and 24th best run defenses (per CFB Graphs EPA statistics). Michigan’s defense is 2nd in that metric. Perhaps, though, the most condemning stat of the Bell Cow Approach is Chase Brown’s average yards after contact. Against Purdue last week––who Pro Football Focus says is the 11th best tackling team in the Big Ten––Brown managed just 1.13 YCO/A (yards after contact/attempt). The week prior, he managed just 2.12 YCO/A against MSU (8th in Big Ten tackling), his third worst performance of the season. PFF has Michigan as the Big Ten’s best tackling team. What’s more, Illinois is 82nd in offensive line yards (Michigan is 12th in defensive line yards, as well as 1st in defensive opportunity rate). It’s hard to imagine this plays out well for what I imagine is a very drained workhorse. (Apparently, he's also a workhorse that might be hurt, too. Hopefully they don't shoot him.) QB Tommy DeVito also does not scare me (sue me), but I’m mildly concerned by former QB and now slot WR Isaiah Williams––he has nearly more yards after the catch (518) than receiving yards in total (561) on the season. Hopefully, we can walk away saying, “Good for Mike Sainristl; he’s going to get drafted.”

When the Wolverines have the ball: You might be thinking, “Doesn’t Michigan have their own bell cow? Are you saying we shouldn’t give him the ball as much as we do?” Well, let’s take a look at the numbers. Though he’s not worked as hard as Chase Brown, RB Blake Corum averages 27.6 carries per game in conference play (that's still a lot). However, Corum has averaged 5.0+ YPC in each of his last five games. His YCO/A in those games has also been better than 2.8 in each, and better than 3.5 in four of those five. (The 2.86 YCO/A came four games ago against PSU, and I think we all remember how that game went.) In Michigan’s case, then, giving it to their star RB as much as possible seems to be working (it helps when your offensive line is the bee's knees). Even though Illinois’ rush defense is the best Michigan’s faced this year, I’m not fully convinced they’re going to slow down the Wolverines all that much. Still, I’m very curious how much Michigan throws the ball in this game. Does JJ get some extra, unnecessary reps to prep for the OSU game? If I’m coaching, I secure an early lead, then start letting JJ off-leash to see what he can do against CFB Graphs’ best pass defense (1st in pass defense EPA, a stat I’m dubious of because the best pass offense they’ve faced is 54th ranked MSU’s). Just like Michigan hasn’t seen a run defense like Illinois’, Illinois hasn’t seen a pass offense like Michigan’s (30th in pass offense EPA).

Meteorology Report: Low 30s. Partly cloudy. 20 MPH winds.

Bottom Line: I’m fully expecting something resembling the Nebraska outing: slobber-knocker football in dreary weather that sees Michigan win in a comfortable, albeit sleepy, fashion. Illinois should put up a bit more of a fight than the Cornhuskers, but I’m suspicious of their defense because they literally haven’t played a single good offense this year. Also, I can’t imagine them scoring more than 13 points unless something absolutely bananas happens.

Projected Score: 26-9, Michigan

What should you bet? Parlay alt spread (Michigan -13.5) with alt total (U 50.5) for -110 odds

What if you like it spicy? Parlay alt spread (Michigan -13.5) with (U 41.5) for +190 odds

Wisconsin (-10.5) at Nebraska [Total: 39]

When the Badgers have the ball: When Wisconsin faces some of the toughest defenses in college football, their offense is dog-water: removing RB Braelon Allen’s 75 yard TD run against Ohio State’s backups, the Badgers scored 14 points and averaged 4.9 YPP in that game; against Illinois, they managed just 10 points and 3.6 YPP; and Iowa, albeit in windy weather, held them to 10 points and 3.4 YPP. Even MSU kept them to 21 points and less than 5 YPP in regulation. But the Cornhuskers defense isn’t good. Actually, it’s bad (86th in Football Outsiders’ DF+, 105th in CFB Graphs’ defensive EPA). The best comp on Wisconsin’s schedule is probably Northwestern (69th and 72nd in those stats), and the Badgers hung 42 points on them with 7.6 YPP. I’m not super enthused that this could be another cold, windy day because conditions like those neutered QB Graham Mertz against Iowa, and, thus, doomed the run game (RB Braelon Allen managed just 2.5 YPC, and RB Isaac Guerendo wasn’t much better at 3.8 YPC with a fumble). But this is a defense that’s played three teams straight (Illinois, Minnesota, Michigan) that more or less said, “We’re going to run it down your throat now,” and the Cornhuskers struggled to stop it with their depleted linebacker core and wimpy line (104th in line yards). Expect another boring bout of ground and pound football on this side of the ball.

When the Cornhuskers have the ball: There is a very real possibility that Nebraska's 4th string QB (who I believe is a walk-on named Matt Masker, or a different guy named Jarret Synek, but I’m not totally sure) plays this Saturday against the Badgers. Due to nerve damage in his hand, QB Casey Thompson is “day-to-day” according to head coach Mickey Joseph, which seems optimistic. Backup QB Chubba Purdy was in a walking boot in the second half of the Michigan game due to an ill-advised baseball slide. And, according to 247, apparently backup’s backup QB Logan Smothers has been “banged up for two weeks.” Joseph said Smothers is “a tough kid and he’s going to play,” but what’s to say they don’t make a business decision and yank him after a few more bruises? To top it all off, offensive coordinator Mark Whipple suffered his own injury against Michigan (a sprained MCL has him in a walking boot, too) and he’ll call plays from the booth (common for many OCs, but I guess not for him). The Badgers have done a pretty good job bottling up Big Ten run games for the past month or so, and it’s hard to imagine they’ll struggle much with Nebraska’s. In cold, mildly windy weather, how does this team move the ball?

Meteorology Report: High 20s. Partly cloudy. 16 MPH winds.

Bottom Line: On Monday, Wisconsin was favored by 13. For reasons I cannot begin to fathom after doing some research, Wisconsin is now just a 10.5 point favorite. Who is putting their money on this Nebraska team? I see the Badgers handling business in a way similar to, but lesser than, what the Wolverines did just last weekend. Bring hand warmers and ear muffs.

Projected Score: 25-12, Wisconsin

What should you bet? Wisconsin (-10.5)

What if you like it spicy? Parlay the above with (Under 39)

Northwestern at Purdue (-18.5) [Total: 44.5]

When the Wildcats have the ball: Hold on there, Nebraska! You’re not the only team with an apocalypse happening in your QB room! Northwestern QB Brandon Sullivan was injured in the second quarter of last week’s game against Minnesota. Former starter Ryan Hilinski came in and led a field goal drive. Head coach Pat Fitzgerald, though, decided to bring Sullivan back in after the half (he’d been cleared by medical), but soon deemed Sullivan “uncomfortable physically.” Fitzgerald subbed him back out for Hilinski, who was then injured in the third quarter and carted off the field. In came third-stringer Carl Richardson, who went 2/7 for 37 yards and an INT. Fourth-stringer Cole Freeman got the game’s last drive, on which he went 1/3 for 7 yards (he also ran twice for 16 yards). I can’t find anything online about who might start this game (Sullivan, I presume), but does it really matter? RB Evan Hull remains Northwestern’s only threat (read: they have no offensive threats), and though Purdue is a bit wounded at linebacker, they still have Jacob Wahlberg, Jalen Graham, and Semis Fakasiieiki, who have all graded out more or less as well per Pro Football focus as the guys they’re replacing (Kieren Douglas and Clyde Washington). With Purdue firmly in the Big Ten West title fight, you really think they’re gonna derp around against a Wildcat offense that’s averaged 10.2 PPG in Big Ten games played in the United States?

When the Boilermakers have the ball: I wrote this last week about Purdue-Illinois, but it didn’t see the light of day because I obviously didn’t publish anything last week: “Okay! I give up! I was wrong! I’m on the RB Devin Mockobee train now! Choo choo! He isn’t the most beautiful runner in the world. He’s not on the level of Corum, Brown or Ibrahim. But the guy puts up numbers with his herky-jerky, balls-to-the-walls style. If I were a Boilermaker, I would absolutely adore watching him.” Now, Mockobee only managed 3.8 YPC against Illinois, but he did help his team (a) score 0.42 points per play against a defense that’s allowed 0.22 PPP this season, and (b) gain 5.2 yards per play against a defense that’s allowed 4.2 YPP this season. Meanwhile, Northwestern allows 0.4 PPP and 5.6 YPP, numbers that are seriously deflated when you consider the two best offenses they faced (OSU and PSU) were in terrible, pro-defense weather. This is the third best offense the Wildcats will face this year (32nd in OF+), and the best offense they'll face in conditions that don't totally nuke passing games (though it still might be hard for QB Aidan O'Connell, considering the meteorology report). I see both Mockobee and WR Charlie Jones putting up well over 100 yards each against this team.

Meteorology Report: Low 30s. Partly cloudy. 17 MPH winds.

Bottom Line: For weeks, the Wildcats had been begging to get thrashed: they were defeated by 7 by not-September-Maryland in a weird game; they let Iowa hang 33 on them, but somehow scored 13 to lose by just 20; the weather helped them lose to OSU by just 14 and PSU by just 10; then, Minnesota did thrash them by 28. There’s no doubt in my mind that Purdue can create a statistically more significant thrashing due to the nature of their pass-first approach. Also, Devin Mockobee hype train!

Projected Score: 36-9, Purdue

What should you bet? Purdue (-18.5)

What if you like it spicy? An alt line for Purdue such as (-23.5)

Indiana at Michigan State (-10.5) [Total: 47.5]

When the Hoosiers have the ball: This series of diaries has been effusive in its condemnation of QB Connor Bazelak, so it feels a bit like an early holiday present that I might not have to watch him play football again this year. After three straight three-and-outs to start the game against Ohio State, Bazelak was benched in favor of QB Dexter Williams who promptly led the Hoosiers on a 6 play, 75 yard TD drive. (Never mind the fact that he went 4/16 for 51 yards for the rest of the game after that drive! Never mind that!) Truth be told, you just gotta feel bad for these QBs: on Williams’ 29 drop backs, he was pressured 12 times, sacked 4 times, and forced to scramble 6 times. Blessedly, RT Parker Hanna has finally been yanked (after a 31.9 PBLK grade from PFF on the year), but his replacement, Carter Smith, still allowed 5 pressures and 2 sacks. At least Michigan State’s pass rush isn’t nearly as statistically terrifying as OSU’s (5.8% sack rate compared to 7.8%), but they did pressure Illinois QB Tommy DeVito on 23 of his 41 drop backs two weeks ago, and pressured the Rutgers QBs on 20 of their 41 drop backs last weekend. (Both of those teams grade out marginally better than the Hoosiers at pass blocking.) Maybe Indiana can get something going in the run game, as Williams is certainly a dual threat, and Rutgers RB Kyle Monangai managed 162 yards on just 24 carries against the Spartans last week––but the Hoosiers pass on nearly 2/3 of their plays, so that’s a tough bet to make.

When the Spartans have the ball: Hey there, MSU’s run game! Look at you! Since getting castrated by Michigan, the JB Boyz (RBs Jalen Berger and Jarek Broussard) ran it a combined 18 times for 94 yards (5.2 YPC) against Illinois and 27 times for 165 yards (6.1 YPC) against Rutgers the past two weeks. Will that momentum continue against Indiana? Eh. Ohio State gashed the Hoosiers last week, but they're a death machine. Neither of Penn State’s talented tandem (RBs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen) eclipsed 5.0 YPC the week prior. Rutgers RB Samuel Brown V managed just 3.6 YPC on 28 totes. Maryland RBs Roman Hemby and Antwan Littleton II only scrapped together 3.5 YPC if you remove Hemby’s 46 yard long run. The ground, though, is not where teams exploit the Hoosiers, and the combination of QB Payton Thorne and WRs Jayden Reed and Keon Coleman seems dangerous enough to take advantage of Indiana’s porous secondary. In his last four games (against Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, and Rutgers), Thorne has thrown 7 TDs and 2 INTs, and completed 62% of his passes for 7.5 YPA––he’s not winning the Davey O’Brien with those numbers, but he’s probably getting what he wants against Indiana, who hasn’t kept any QB in check since September (except Rutgers’ Noah Vedral, and I'm pretty sure the jury's still out on if he's a QB or not).

Meteorology Report: Mid 20s. Some snow. 16 MPH winds.

Bottom Line: Bill Connelly’s SP+ sees this as a 37-23 win in favor of Michigan State. I highly doubt that his metric takes what could be some pretty rough conditions into account, so that feels a touch too high to me. I’m of the belief that MSU’s defense is a little bit better than most think, too, and just don’t have much faith in this Indiana squad putting up more than 20 points. MSU might struggle to score points too if the cold and wind hinder their passing game.

Projected Score: 29-16, Michigan State

What should you bet? Michigan State (-10.5)

What if you like it spicy? Add a FG to the total (Under 50.5) and parlay with the above

Ohio State (-27.5) at Maryland [Total: 63.5]

When the Buckeyes have the ball: Head coach Ryan Day said that he would be “shocked” (shocked!) if all three of Ohio State’s top running backs (Miyan Williams, TreVeyon Henderson, and, uh, I guess, according to Sports Illustrated, Chip Trayanum, who has one carry on the season and is listed as a LB on ESPN) are unable to suit up against Maryland. If it happens to be the case that both (I’m ignoring Chip) can’t go, OSU will turn to Dallan Hayden, a freshman who has been not particularly good in sizable action. Hayden put together 102 yards on 19 carries against Indiana, but has just 4.9 YPC on the season, a number that drops to 4.4 if you remove his 17 carry, 108 yard performance against the Toledo Rockets. Of course, none of this should really matter. From everything I understand, Maryland’s approach to pass defense is to drop a bunch of guys into coverage and hope their limp pass rush (2nd worst in the Big Ten per PFF) can eventually get home. This sounds like a really bad idea when you’re playing against a future NFL quarterback who is being protected by future NFL offensive tackles and throwing to future NFL wide receivers. C.J. Stroud has eclipsed 10 YPA against Arkansas State, Toledo, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Penn State, and Indiana this year. He has 34 TDs and 4 INTs on the season. He’s completing 67% of his passes. Sounds like a field day.

When the Terrapins have the ball: Something has happened to the Maryland offense. Something very bad. I haven’t had the time to watch the tape, so all I can do is explain it in statistics. In the past two weeks against Wisconsin and Penn State, the Terrapins have scored 10 (!) total points on offense. QB Taulia Tagovailoa has completed 47% of his passes for 3.6 YPA. His performance against Wisconsin can perhaps be explained by a nasty weather day, and his performance against Penn State can perhaps be explained by a hard hit he took early in the game, but, still, those numbers are yikes. The run game hasn’t helped him much (RBs Roman Hemby, Antwan Littleton II, Ramon Brown, and Colby McDonald combined for 93 yards on 28 carries against the Badgers and 97 yards on 26 carries against the Nittany Lions). Tagovailoa was also pressured 16 times and sacked 5 times against Wisconsin, and pressured 15 times and sacked 7 times against Penn State. Wisconsin and Penn State both have good defenses (16th and 9th in DF+, respectively), but Ohio State has an even better one (4th in DF+). Pro Football Focus says the Buckeyes are the best pass rushing team in the Big Ten (six linemen and both starting LBs have double-digit pressures this year) and have the second best rush defense in the Big Ten (behind Michigan). November Maryland should be in for a world of pain.

Meteorology Report: Low 40s. Partly cloudy. 6 MPH winds.

Bottom Line: This is Ohio State’s tune-up game for their biggest game of the year. It is against a Maryland team whose offense is in inexplicable tatters and whose defense relies on the shortcomings of college quarterbacks. That’s all a recipe for a blowout at their home stadium, especially considering Maryland isn’t playing for a bowl berth.

Projected Score: 48-13, Ohio State

What should you bet? Ohio State (-27.5)

What if you like it spicy? Double down and parlay the above with their first half spread

Penn State (-19.5) at Rutgers [Total: 44.5]

I forgot to write about the Penn State game in the Week 10 post. In the Week 11 post, I wrote, without publishing it, “First things first: I neglected to write anything about the PSU-Indiana game. I’m glad for this oversight because then my record probably would’ve been 1-6 this week rather than 1-5.” And, then? I went 3-0. Let’s roll with the hot hand. I’m not betting on this game.

Iowa at Minnesota (-2.5) [Total: 32.5]

When the Hawkeyes have the ball: Have we have finally reached the point in the season where Vegas’ disrespect for Iowa’s ability to put up points has outpaced itself? The Hawkeyes have hit the over in 3 out of their 10 games this season, a number I find surprisingly high (until you remember the over against Rutgers only hit because of two defensive touchdowns, the over against Ohio State only hit because of two defensive touchdowns, and the over against Northwestern hit because… the Wildcats suck). Minnesota’s defense is 8th in DF+, and the Hawkeyes have played 4 games against teams in the Top 16 of that metric (Michigan, OSU, Illinois, and Wisconsin). Removing the totally pointless, 75 yard garbage-time TD drive against Michigan, the offense has averaged 8.3 points per game and 183 yards… my word. Considering the meteorologic report for this game, the Hawkeyes will need RB Kaleb Johnson to have a game similar to his performance against Purdue two weeks ago (22 carries, 200 yards). Unfortunately, in Big Ten play outside of that game and his game against Northwestern, Johnson has carried it 69 times for 199 yards: that’s 2.9 YPC. Meaning? Don’t count on it. The Gophers defense should also match up well here. They’re weakest in their pass rush, which, coincidentally, is probably fine since Iowa is the worst pass blocking team in the Big Ten.

When the Golden Gophers have the ball: So what about Minnesota? Can they supply the necessary points to hit the over? At the beginning of the season, they looked like an effective enough offense to supplement their strong defense. QB Tanner Morgan was efficient and RB Mo Ibrahim was exceptional. Then, the Purdue game happened, and Morgan threw three picks and no touchdowns. After a bye, an Illinois defender punched him in the head (after he went 4/12 for 21 yards and a pick) and he wasn’t the same. In fact, before getting injured for good against Nebraska, Morgan hadn’t thrown a touchdown since September. Athan Kaliakmanis has stepped in for him, and, in my opinion, been admirable for a freshman thrown into the fire, but he definitely hasn’t been good. The burden has fallen wholly on the shoulders of RB Mo Ibrahim (134 carries in the last four games have gone for 4.3 YPC [but 9 TDs is nice]), and he alone might not be enough. The Hawkeyes kept Chase Brown to 4.7 YPC, Blake Corum to 4.6 YPC, Miyan Williams and TreVeyon Henderson to a combined 2.7 YPC, and Braelon Allen to 2.4 YPC. In all likelihood, they’ll key on Ibrahim more than any of those backs, due to the weather and Kaliakmanis. I can’t say I like the odds of this offense scoring two touchdowns either.

Meteorology Report: Low 20s. Cloudy night. 20 MPH winds.

Bottom Line: This is a once in a lifetime opportunity. How many college football games have over-unders set in the low 30s? And in how many of those games can you feel semi-good about betting the under? Probably not that many. Worst case scenario, there are three defensive touchdowns to put this game over the total, but I just don’t see these offenses against these defenses in this weather putting up the requisite numbers to hit it on their own.

Projected Score: 15-15, Tie

What should you bet? (Under 32.5)

What if you like it spicy? Parlay an alt total (Under 38.5) with Iowa (+115) for +170

The Conclusion

Once again, thanks for reading!

Happy betting and Go Blue!