2021 Week 8 Total Conference Wins Outlook

 

“They watch you, misrepresent you, write letters about you (anonymous sometimes), and you are the torment and the occupation of their lives. You can scarcely realize to yourself the hatred those people feel for you."
    - Estella Havisham
    (Great Expectations by Charles Dickens)

Spin Up

Ol’ Charles Dickens pegged the sociotype that is Sparty Stan long before Sparty, Jungian Psychoanalysis or the Pseudoscience of Socionics came into existence. This is why books become classics - they have a way of encapsulating the cultural milieu in ways that become immutable over the course of time, and provide an ongoing basis for examination and reflection. The 21st century instantiation of Miss Havisham’s torment can easily be encapsulated in Sparty Stan - or the expression of Laconophilia in the vernacular of the modern college athletics zeitgeist. Sparty Stan is the fundamental model of what is now widely recognized as the 17th sociotype, and is associated with a special case of the Myers-Briggs Indicator, PEDO (a mnemonic for “Prejudiced - Envious - Destructive - Obsequious”). PEDO is a set of character flaws that appear most frequently in little brothers and fanatics of Michigan State athletics. Alas, the only known treatment for this most annoying and offensive condition is a beatdown. Occasionally in the course of administering a beatdown, it may be appropriate to give the subject exhibiting Sparty Stan a false sense of hope by allowing them some brief retaliation before swiftly resuming the beatdown until the exercise is complete.

It is also recommended that the beatdowns continue until the condition improves.

Has Michigan played anyone yet? How can we know they’re any good at all unless they have? Well of course, most teams have not played anyone until…they do. And so that’s why there are computery, fancy stats sorts of things to try to conduct both a statistically sound and logically robust analysis of the vast dataset that is play-by-play statistics beyond just the relatively sparse dataset consisting of sum-total box scores and game results. Such is the nature of Bill Connelly’s S&P+, which develops tempo- and opponent-adjusted measures of college football efficiency based on play-by-play and drive data designed to be predictive and forward-facing), as well as ESPN’s own FPI (like S&P+, but “different”). These two rating systems form the baseline for this report.  However, just for kicks and for the sake of comparison, the older-school Pure Points model provided by Jeff Sagarin is included in this report.

Schedules, Spreads & Win Probabilities

So, with that, it’s on to a multiple ratings analysis. The focus is on the all-important in-conference slate so as to better illuminate the prospects for each of the teams to make it to the B1GCG in Indy, and beyond. But before delving into the details of applying the ratings to the schedules, let’s first have a look at the ratings themselves across the conference. All three ratings are points-based, but only S&P+ and FPI are relative to an average FBS team. The FPI and S&P+ are both adjusted to reflect a 2.5 point home-field advantage. The current adjustment for the Sagarin ratings is a 2.60 point home advantage.

The gulf isolating the Buckeyes from everyone else in the B1G continues to expand across all three ratings on the heels of their methodical dismantling of the Hoosiers - inclement weather be damned. The narrowest margin between them and the next-best team is in the FPI, where OSU is ranked 3rd overall, followed by Michigan at #4 overall, but is a whopping 6.8 expected points lower. With the Illini’s stunning 9 OT upset over the Nits in Happy Valley, the examples of transitive dissonance can only expand, especially since the Nits are near the top of the ratings while the Illini remain at or near the bottom. Nebraska is the apparent leader in the Transitive Dissonance For The Win* category, being rated ahead (in one or more ratings) of the following teams to which they have lost: Michigan State, Minnesota and Illinois. S&P+ also awards Wisconsin with three TDFTW’s over Michigan and Penn State (and #14 overall Notre Dame, as well).

* TDFTW games are played on a neutral field.

B1G East Schedule Rundown

The tables below are composites of the conference schedules for all seven teams in the B1G East with the latest ratings following the games of week 8. The last table in each set simply shows a rank-ordering of the B1GE teams based on their  expected in-conference win totals - it’s not a projection of divisional standings based on projected wins, losses, and tie-breakers. Those are found in a later section.

S&P+ Results

Week 8 has only reaffirmed the realignment in the S&P+ rankings witnessed last week. OSU continues at the top now with 8.0 expected wins - the first time a team has broken the 8 expected wins threshold this season. Michigan has edged closer to the Buckeyes, but is still 1.1 wins back, followed by Sparty another 0.7 wins behind the Maize’n’Blue. Of course, OSU is favored in all of its remaining games at this point. Per the strictures of this diary, PSU is no longer a contender in the B1GE and has been relegated to Bowl Bubble status. However, PSU remains favored in all of its games except when they visit OSU in the Horseshoe, where the Nits are now two touchdown underdogs (13.7 points or about 1:4 odds). Too bad they’re not playing Illinois in the Big House.Regardless, in the piecewise expected wins sense, PSU is still in it. Maybe they’d have a better chance. And so it goes, UM is the underdog in two of its games, on the road at Happy Valley as well as in The Game at the Big House. The Wolverines remain a slight favorite (-3.5 points or 58.8% win likelihood) to beat Sparty in East Lansing. Despite Sparty sliding ahead of PSU in expected wins and into technical contention for a trip to Indy, Sparty is the underdog in all three of its games with the other contenders. Sparty’s largest deficit margin is a stunning 17.4 points to the Buckeyes at the ‘Shoe.

Of the remaining teams, Maryland has seen its bubble position erode slightly, but with 3.4 expected wins to go with their 3-0 OOC record, the Terps remain on a glide path to bowl eligibility. Also undefeated in non-conference play, Rutgers has a better shot at a bowl than the Hoosiers despite being last in the expected wins tally. However, the Kniggets still need to beat the Illini this week and win two more games as an underdog, including at Indiana and at season’s end when the Terps go to Piscataway. Oh, yea. Poor Damn Indiana. Favored against Rutgers, but that’s going to be too little, too late.

FPI Results

FPI continues to follow suit with the S&P+ ratings, matching the 8.0 expected wins for the Buckeyes, who have expanded their lead to 0.7 wins over the next-best Wolverines. Sparty has held steady at 6.6 wins to remain in contention for the B1GE. Now 3.4 expected wins behind the Buckeyes, the Nits have dropped to Bowl Bubble status. Per FPI, OSU is projected to win out, while Michigan is favored in all its remaining games except The Game. MSU is favored in all of its remaining games except Michigan and OSU, which means PSU is the underdog to all three of its games with the B1GE contenders.

Rutgers, Indiana and Maryland are all between 1.8 and 2.4 expected wins, with Maryland now leading the bunch. However, it does not seem likely that more than one of these teams will become bowl eligible, since they all still have to play each other, and they all represent to each other either the best chances of winning or pulling an upset needed to become eligibility. It’s a mutual exclusivity thing. 

Sagarin Results

The Week 8 Sagarin ratings look vaguely similar to the other two, but there are some subtle differences. OSU is at 7.9 wins, just shy of the others’ 8.0 mark - so no surprise there. UM trails OSU by  0.7 expected wins, followed by Sparty another 1.1 wins back at 6.1 expected wins. Like S&P+ and FPI, Sagarin projects that OSU will win all of its remaining games by double digits except for The Game, where the margin is only -4.4 points. Trailing OSU by 3.0 expected wins, the Nits are technically out of contention, but yet, they are the underdog in only one of their remaining games according to Sagarin, by 12.0 points when they visit the Horseshoe. So like with S&P+, PSU is still in it. So that brings us to Michigan, who by inference is an underdog to the Nits - but by a wafer-thin 0.2 points - when they visit Happy Valley. Sparty might be regarded as a contender as suggested above, but they are nonetheless an underdog to all of the other B1GE contenders, and is only a -0.1 favorite when they visit West Lafayette.

Sagarin’s take on the bowl bubble teams remains similar to FPI, and it’s hard to see more than one of Maryland, Indiana and Rutgers becoming bowl eligible since they will in all likelihood cannibalize each other. 

B1G West Schedule Rundown

The next set of schedule tables shows the conference schedules for all seven teams in the B1G West based week 7 results and ratings for the remaining games from S&P+, FPI and Jeff Sagarin’s Pure Points ratings. Again, the last table in each figure simply shows a rank-ordering of the B1GW teams based on their  expected win totals - it’s not a projection of divisional conference standings per se. Those projections can be found in the next section.

S&P+ Results

In the B1GW, S&P+ has maintained its group of four contenders on the basis of expected wins. Remarkably, it's the Gophers who have popped to the top at 6.0 expected wins, edging out the Hawkeyes by less than 0.1 expected wins. Just another 0.1 expected wins back are the Badgers. Still within a 1.9 expected wins are Boilers, but with one win and two losses already to the other contenders, it’s fair to say the Boilers can be ruled out. As for the other three, they all have yet to play each other, and any of those teams that wins out will go to Indy and beyond. The first of the 3 contender matchups is Iowa at Wisconsin this weekend, where the Badgers will be a -9.2 point favorite (5:2 odds). Indeed, the Badgers are favored in all of their remaining games, so the outlook for Bucky is, dare we say, Rosy?

Meanwhile, the Gophers are the underdog to both of the other contenders. However, the Hawkeyes are underdogs in two of their remaining games as well, including to the Huskers at season’s end in Lincoln.

As for the rest of the B1GW, Purdue’s 4.1 expected B1G wins to go with its 2-1 OOC record means the Boilers are the only other team tracking toward bowl eligibility. Alas, Nebraska may have sealed its fate with its loss to Minnesota.

FPI Results

The FPI ratings have begun to coalesce around three contenders who have yet to play each other. They are led by Iowa with 6.3 expected wins, with next-best Minny a half win back. Bucky Badger is lurking about with 5.0 expected wins. Purdue is well established in the Bowl Bubble, but is not realistically in contention as they’ve already lost to 2 of the contenders already noted. Remarkably, by defeating the Nits last weekend, the Illini  have pulled themselves out of the cellar to stand at 3.5 expected wins to resurrect a shot at bowl eligibility. The Huskers are slightly worse off at 2.9 expected wins, but have 3 more winnable games on their schedule that would open the door to a postseason. The Mildcats, alas, are the undercat in all of their remaining games and seemed destined to remain a Bottom Feeder.

Sagarin Results

Sagarin shows Iowa as the B1GW leader once again at 6.5 expected wins, but with a narrower margin of 0.8 expected wins ahead of next-best Minnesota. Wisconsin remains a contender at 5.2 expected wins and all the key matchups ahead for them, the first of which is at home against Iowa this weekend - but it’s the Hawkeyes who are a narrow -0.5 point favorite in that tussle. Indeed, Iowa is favored in all of its remaining games, which puts them on the inside track to Indy. Meanwhile Minny is the underdog to both of the other contenders, so the Gophers will need to work some magical oarsmanship to find a way to Indy. Purdue is no longer a contender no matter how you look at it. The Boilers are 2.4 expected wins behind Iowa, and already have 2 losses to the current contenders. Favored in 2 of its remaining games - and only a 0.1 point underdog to Sparty - the Boilers are still in great position for a bowl invitation. Conversely, it remains that the Huskers will need to win 3 of their last 4 games, including at least two games in which they’re not favored to retain bowl eligibility.

Expected Conference Wins Distributions

Before getting into the projected final standings, it’s worth having a look at the distributions of expected wins across the conference. If nothing else, it serves as a reminder that point spreads  are subject to very wide statistical variations (two standard deviations is +/- 34 points), wide enough to account for just about anything happening!

The plots below show the expected total conference wins distributions for the teams in each division. The legends list the teams in order of decreasing expected win totals. The expected win total is determined by the value at which half of the area under the curve is to the left, and the other half is to the right! The number of wins with the highest probability (i.e. the most likely outcome) for a given team is referred to as the “mode”.

S&P+ Results

The S&P+ distributions show clear separation between OSU and the other three two contenders in the B1GE. OSU and UM still occupy the same balanced 8 and 7 win modes, respectively. MSU stands alone with a 6 win mode that is slightly biased toward 7 wins. OSU’s chances of going undefeated in the B1G continue to improve and now stand at 33%. UM’s chances of going undefeated are  5.7%, and though Sparty still has a chance, it remains vanishingly small.

As for the Bowl Bubble teams in the B1GE, there are two to speak of: Maryland, and Penn State. The distribution of Maryland, with its upward-biased 3-win mode, together with a 3-0 OOC record, means the Turtles still have a better than 79% chance to get a bowl invitation, while PSU is pretty much a 99% lock to become bowl eligible. Rutgers is still clinging to its greatly diminished postseason chances, which now stand at 19%, despite their 3-0 OOC record. And since misery loves company, the Kniggets can commiserate with the poor damn Hoosiers and their less than 5% chance of making a bowl game.

On the other side, Iowa, Wisconsin and now Minnesota all share the lead at the 6-win mode. Indeed, the distributions of the 3 remaining contenders have coalesced to the point of being nearly indistinguishable, which demonstrates just how tight the race in the B1GW is - at least in terms of the S&P+ ratings. Two expected wins back of the pack are the Boilers with a balanced 4-win mode that together with their 2 OOC wins give them a 74% chance of becoming bowl eligible.

As for the remains of the B1GW Bubble teams, all of a sudden on the heels of their upset of PSU, the Illini now have a better chance of becoming bowl eligible (37%) than the Huskers (20%), who find themselves as bad off as Rutgers. Needing to win 3 of their 4 remaining games - and being favored in only one - the Huskers have a tough row to hoe.

FPI Results

The FPI distributions for the B1GE show 3 contenders grouped in the 7-win and 8-win modes. MSU shares the 7-win mode with UM, wherein MSU is biased toward 6 wins, and UM toward 8 wins. OSU stands alone with its prominent 8-win, and a 30% chance of going undefeated in the B1G, followed by UM with a 10.5% chance, and MSU at 2.1%.

PSU stands alone with its downward-biased 5-win mode, which keeps the Nits in a strong bowl-eligibility position, not to mention a dangerous spoiler for the remaining contenders. The remainder of the B1GE are jumbled at the 2-win mode, but  the only ones with any decent chances of becoming bowl-eligible are Rutgers (35%) and Maryland (45%). The poor damn Hoosiers’ chance of having a postseason is less than 5%.

On the other side, FPI is showing a bit more separation among the 3 contenders than S&P+, but it’s still a tight race. Iowa now shares the topmost 6-win mode with Minnesota, but has a slight edge with its upward biased distribution versus the Gophers’ bias toward 5 wins. The Badgers have a balanced distribution with sole possession of the 5-win mode. The Badgers are on the outside track to Indy - having only a 7% chance of winning out - but that’s not the only scenario by which Bucky might make the trip. There’s a lot of football left to be played. Further back is Purdue, now with a fairly balanced 4-win mode to go with their 2 OOC wins, which still bodes well for their postseason prospects, which stand at a 75% likelihood by the FPI numbers. Meanwhile, the resurgent Illini have a renewed sense of urgency as they try to cultivate their postseason prospects, which currently stand 47%, as the Huskers try to salvage theirs, which stand at 26%.

Sagarin Results

In the B1GE, Sagarin has also reduced its set of contenders to three teams - MSU, UM and OSU - which occupy the 6-win,  7-win and 8-win modes. The OSU and MSU distributions are fairly balanced, whereas UM has a strong bias toward 8 wins. The chances of OSU and UM going undefeated in B1G play are 29% and 9%, respectively, while MSU’s chance remains vanishingly small. What this means is that it is more than likely that no team will win out and have an unblemished B1G record by season’s end. OSU is obviously the team to beat, and it is most likely that the Buckeyes will lose one B1G game, so there’s a chance! But that chance is also tempered by the notion that UM, MSU and PSU will most likely lose a total 2, 3 and 4 B1G games by season’s end. But again, it’s more likely that some other outcome will occur, so yea! Bayesian Probabilities for the Win, yo!

The chances of Rutgers, Indiana, and Maryland becoming bowl eligible are 19.2%, 4.7% and 79.1% respectively. Thus, it’s more than likely that Knigget and Hoosiers will be staying home this offseason, but that’s beside the point. What is remarkable here is that despite being the underdog in all of its remaining games, the Terps by far have the best chances of pulling two necessary upsets (i.e. beating both Indiana and Rutgers) to become bowl eligible! Bayesian Probabilities for the Win, yo!

On the other side, one-loss Iowa remains the clear favorite with a 7-win mode that has a downward bias toward 6 wins. Still lurking just below the surface are the wily Gophers with a 6-win mode biased toward 5 wins, along with the fossorial mammals of the B1G - the Badgers - with their 5-win mode that is strongly biased toward 6 wins. All 3 of these contenders control their own destiny as of now. Since all 3 of these teams have yet to play each other, the race remains wide open. 

The Boilers could be Spoilers before all is said and done. As it stands, they are highly likely to become bowl eligible (74% chance), and in doing so may upset a team or two along the way (looking at you, Sparty!). Meanwhile, the Illini and Huskers are straddling up to the 3-win mode, which is not the best complement to either team’s two OOC wins. These two teams seem to be trending in opposite directions, with the Illini’s chances to become bowl eligible now at 40%, now nearly double those of the Huskers and the Mildcats, which pretty well locks both of these teams in the basement.

B1G Expected Final Standings

As alluded to above, following are projections of the divisional conference standings at the end of the season based on the combination of current records and the projected wins and losses for the remainder of the season.

S&P+ Forecast

FPI Forecast

Sagarin Forecast

OK, so it’s getting a little repetitive these days. Based on the simple game-by-game expected wins and losses, all three ratings systems forecast OSU to win the B1GE with a 9-0 conference record. How boring. All three ratings also forecast Michigan to place second, with either a 7-2 (10-2) or 8-1 (11-1) record. So that’s… better than expected? Still, there’s that elephant in the room. Oh, look! A pretty butterfly! Two of the ratings - S&P+ and Sagarin - place a 6-3 (9-3) Penn State as the next-best team. Sparky would have the same record as PSU, but would lose the head-to-head tiebreaker with the Nits. The FPI results posit that an 8-1 (11-1) Michigan team will take 2nd place, with its only loss being The Game. Everything else remainining the same with all of the ratings, it appears that the winner of The Game will be the team that will go to the B1GCG. Clearly, in the case of the FPI results, if everything else goes as predicted except Michigan beats OSU, Michigan goes to Indy by winning the B1GE outright. Likewise with the S&P+ and Sagarin results, Michigan goes to Indy by virtue of the head-to-head tiebreaker with OSU, with M’s only loss being to PSU.

As for the B1GW, the S&P+ ratings still project a 7-2 (9-3) Wisconsin team to earn a trip to Indy, beating out a 6-3 (9-3) Iowa team that is tied with a 6-3 (8-4) Minnesota. In contrast, FPI sees a 7-2 (10-2) Iowa rising above the melee to beat out a two-way tie at 6-3 (8-4) between Wisconsin and Minnesota. Sagarin sees it the same way, except with an 8-1 (11-1) Iowa running away with it.

Yours in football, and Go Blue!