2018 FPI Preseason Ratings

2018 FPI Preseason Ratings

Submitted by Ecky Pting on February 14th, 2018 at 5:10 PM

So the 2018 Football Power Index (FPI) Preseason Ratings have just posted, and the results are not terribly dissimilar from those posted last week by Bill Connelly of S&P+ fame, and they are not terribly dissimilar from last season's preseason's ratings for that matter, with the exception of Sparty, who has bounded back up into top-tendom.

These ratings are based on the following criteria:

  • Team performance over the past four seasons (most emphasis on last season)
  • Returning starters at quarterback, on offense overall and on defense
  • Whether a team has a returning head coach
  • Recruiting rankings over the past four seasons

Some notables? M is looking at a bitch of schedule, playing 5 of the top 12 teams, and 3 of those on the road. What's more, the next 3 highest rated opponents are in the upper half of the rankings, and the lowest 4 are at least in the third quartile.

As for the team breakdowns, the M defense remains elite, 2nd only to Clemson. M is also remarkably the elite-est in Special Teams! Offense looks to remain on the dicey side, and is what is clearly pulling this team down overall.

So here's a grab of the top 25 of the rankings, along with M's 2018 opponents in bold, including M, since if M is going to stand any chance of beating these other teams, the first thing they're going to have to do is not beat themselves.

Rank Team FPI Off. Def. S/T
1 Clemson 25.5 7 1 27
2 Alabama 23.2 4 8 8
3 Georgia 23.1 2 9 9
4 Ohio State 22.4 6 7 3
5 Notre Dame 22.3 11 3 10
6 Washington 22.3 8 6 5
7 Auburn 20.1 18 4 13
8 Penn State 19.9 3 18 14
9 Oklahoma 19.0 1 30 35
10 Michigan State 18.8 15 10 6
11 Michigan 18.8 32 2 1
12 Wisconsin 17.4 10 17 16
13 Stanford 16.4 5 34 7
14 Miami (FL) 16.2 23 11 20
15 USC 15.0 28 13 4
16 Mississippi State 14.8 19 15 56
17 Texas 14.2 58 5 2
18 Florida State 13.1 16 27 52
19 Oregon 12.5 20 24 40
20 Texas A&M 12.5 25 23 23
21 Oklahoma State 12.4 13 35 43
22 Florida 12.2 31 16 36
23 Virginia Tech 11.5 46 14 17
24 Georgia Tech 10.8 9 50 67
25 Iowa 10.6 38 21 18
32 Northwestern 8.5 57 20 19
50 Nebraska 4.0 49 63 15
60 Maryland 1.2 43 81 38
66 Indiana -1.4 79 70 48
68 Rutgers -1.8 90 54 29
72 Western Michigan -2.6 55 96 49
90 Southern Methodist -6.7 80 95 107

 

B1G Expectations: 2017 Week 6 Total Conference Wins Update

B1G Expectations: 2017 Week 6 Total Conference Wins Update

Submitted by Ecky Pting on October 13th, 2017 at 8:00 AM

Big_Ten_Conference_logo.png Expectations

“Pause you who read this, and think for a moment of the long chain of iron or gold, of thorns or flowers, that would never have bound you, but for the formation of the first link on one memorable day.”

- Pip     
  (Great Expectations by Charles Dickens)

Spin Up

At six weeks into the season now, the midpoint is upon us. The time for the true nature of the combatants to emerge is nigh. The quality of competition continues to ratchet up, and the schedule grants no quarter to those who may seek pause to collect themselves, to make … improvements. Such opportunities have come to pass, ignominiously. Suddenly, this Team 138 finds itself at a crossroads. All of its goals still remain ahead, yet the prospects for achieving them have taken an alarming hit, with the margin for error now approaching zero, with a new dependence on the the failure of the one who shall not be named. Now is the time when this Team 138 finds its character … and goddamit, it’d better be one with some serious Steel in the Spine!

Schedules, Spreads & Win Probabilities

So, with that, it’s on to the analysis here, which now focusses on the all-important in-conference slate, so as to make a closer examination of the prospects for the teams to make it to the B1GCG in Indy the first Saturday of December.

B1G East Schedule Rundown

The tables of schedules below shows the overall schedules for all seven teams in the B1G East based on the ratings following week 6. The last table in each set simply shows a rank-ordering of the B1GE teams based on their  expected in-conference win totals - it’s not a projection of divisional standings based on projected wins, losses, and tie-breakers.

S&P+ Results

The confidence with which the Buckeyes expect to reclaim the B1GE title continues to grow week-by-week. For the first in over a month, its expected conference win total exceeds 8 wins. Although, the Buckeyes’ lead over the Nits has narrowed to 0.8 wins. Such are the spoils of the Wolverines’ loss to MSU, who have relinquished its 3rd placed position to Sparty. Sparty now stands at close to 6.0 B1G wins (up from 4.7 last week), while the Wolverines have dropped to 5.2 B1G wins. In the aggregate, OSU remains favored in all of its remaining games, the smallest margin being 9.3 points when they visit Ann Arbor. The other contenders (and the definition of the term is being stretched here) – PSU, MSU and UM – remain underdogs, respectively, in one, two and three games apiece. PSU is a double-digit dog to OSU, whereas all of M’s deficit margins are by less than double-digits score, so there’s that.

Looking ahead, S&P+ shows Michigan favored by just over 6.5 points in its next game vs. the Hoosiers, for a win likelihood of 67%, or about 1:2 odds.

Two others – Indiana and Maryland – are maintaining the bubble of bowl eligibility and claim the middle ground of the B1GE. The Hoosiers, who added a late season OOC game to make up for the one that got cancelled due to Hurricane Irma, vanquished Charleston Southern and raised its expectations 3.6 B1G wins.The Terps lag Sparty by another 2.0 B1G wins, and are on the outside trying to get back in after being pummeled by the Buckeyes.   It could not be much worse for LOLRutgerz, who are underdogs in all of its remaining games.

 

FPI Results

The disparity between the S&P+ and FPI results appears to have narrowed this time around. FPI also has Ohio State favored by more than one score in all its remaining games, and leads the B1GE with 8.3 expected conference wins, and a similar margin of 0.8 expected wins over next-best PSU. The FPI results still show Michigan hanging in there at third-best, but lagging PSU by a whopping 2.8 margin at 4.8 expected wins. Penn State has only one game with deficit margin: at OSU by just over 9 points. The Wolverines, meanwhile, have a deficit margin in 3 games (PSU, Wisconsin & OSU), all in 10 to 12 point range.

Looking ahead, FP has Michigan favored by 6.5 points (nearly identical to the S&P+ margin) in its next game vs. the Hoosiers, for a win likelihood of 67%, or about 1:2 odds.

Suffice it to say at this point, UM is firmly ensconced among the other teams in the middle tier, many of whom are on the verge of bowl-eligibility. MSU, Maryland and Indiana are all within a margin 1.2 expected wins. FPI concurs that LOLRutgerz can be left for dead.

 

Power Rank Results

The Power Rank has taken a tack that mixes things up a good bit, coming out with Penn State on top of the B1G East at 7.6 expected conference wins, yet PSU remains an underdog in one game, at OSU, by about 1 point. The Buckeyes still trail the Nits by about 0.4 expected wins, but OSU is still favored to win out, albeit by the thinnest of margins (including by only 1.4 points at Kinnick Stadium, and 3 points at the Big House). Things could get interesting. PR puts the Buckeyes at only 7.2 expected B1G wins, with Sparty lagging another 1.4 expected wins behind. UM, now in the four-spot, is riding bitch in the B1GE at about 5.0 expected conference wins. So, the three-maybe-four contenders are within 2.6 expected wins of each other, with half the season remaining, more or less.

Looking ahead, Michigan is favored by just under 5 points in its next game vs. the Hoosiers, for a win likelihood of 63%, or about 3:5 odds.

A narrower range of 2.3 wins extends from UM to next-to-last place Indiana. The Hoosiers, at 3.5 expected B1G wins, are sitting on the bubble boundary for bowl eligibility. If it can manage to steal one of its next four games in which its less than a double-digit dog and close with a win over the Boilers, the Hoosiers will likely be bowl-bound.

B1G East Expected Conference Wins Distributions

The bar plots below show the expected total conference wins distributions for teams in the B1G East, in alphabetical order. Noted above each bar is the probability for that number of wins (you may need to click & embiggen to read it). The bar with the highest value is the most likely outcome (the mode). Also flagged on each plot is the expected overall win total (the mean). The last multiline plot (bottom right) is just an overlay of the same data from the other seven bar plots.

S&P+ Results

The S&P+ distributions for conference wins now shows a growing separation not only among the three or four contenders at the top, but for the entire division all the way down to lowly LOLRutgerz. OSU maintains its position 8-win mode, however, PSU has also popped up for a share of it. The difference is that OSU leans strongly toward winning out, while PSU still has a significant lean toward a 7-win mode. Now third-best, MSU has grabbed sole possession of the 6-win mode, leaving Michigan behind in a balanced, 5-win mode. As of now, the likelihood of the Buckeyes going undefeated in the B1G has increased to over 40.0%. The likelihood of PSU running the table stands at just of 9%.

As for the others, the Hoosiers have also popped up to grab the 4-win mode, separating themselves from the Terps who still occupy the 3-win mode. Meanwhile, S&P+ woe begotten LOLRutgerz is peaking at the 2-win mode leaning toward the worse.

FPI Results

As expected, the FPI results show a broader separation at the top. OSU, the #2 team in all the land, has pressed its lead to the limit, and its distribution now exhibits an 9-win mode, but still with a lean toward 8 wins. Right behind OSU is PSU occupying the 8-win mode. From that point, a 3-game separation follows before picking up Michigan and Sparty, who both exhibit 5-win modes. OSU registers a better than 44% chance of winning out. PSU’s chance of going undefeated ticked up slightly to nearly 14%. From there, the next closest teams (Indiana and Maryland) have nearly identical distributions with 4-win modes with strong leans toward 3 wins.

Power Rank Results

As noted above, the Power Rank continues to predict the tightest race of the three ratings in the B1GE. The difference is that here PSU claims the highest mode of 8 expected B1G wins. Close on the Nits’ heels are the Buckeyes with a 7-win mode leaning strongly toward 8 wins. Back one notch from there is Sparty, balanced on a 6-win mode, and likewise Michigan is balanced on a 5-win mode. PR show PSU with a slightly better than 17% chance of winning out, followed by OSU at just over 10%. Maryland has sole occupancy of the 4-win mode, followed closely by the Hoosiers nearly split between the 3-win and 4-win modes.

B1G West Schedule Rundown

The next two tables of schedules shows the overall schedules for all seven teams in the B1G West based on S&P+ and FPI week 1 results. Again, the last table in each figure simply shows a rank-ordering of the B1GW teams based on their  expected win totals - it’s not a projection of divisional conference standings per se.

S&P+ Results

No big news in the B1G West. The S&P+ results still show the Badgers’ more than 3 expected wins ahead of next-best … Purdue? That’s what passes for excitement in the B1GW these days. The Badgers are in a sense in contention with only themselves for the B1GW title. The Badgers are the only team in the West – in the entire Big Ten, even - expected to win all of its games, with its toughest matchup still expected to be when Michigan comes to Camp Randall. Michigan remains the only Wisconsin opponent that is less than a one-score underdog. At that point, of course, the Badgers should have already locked up its bid to Indy. Anyway, the only notable change is an expansion of the Badgers margin by a half win to 3.3 expected wins over the Boilers. An invitation to the B1GCG in Indy seems nearly a foregone conclusion for Wisconsin.

Meanwhile, Purdue, Nebraska, Iowa, Northwestern and Minnesota are all within 1.6 expected B1G wins of each other. Purdue as mentioned has percolated to the top of the bubble after Nebraska getting pummeled by the Badgers. Further coalescence in the middle of the B1GW can be anticipated.

To summarize, here are the final B1G standings as projected by S&P+:

2017w06_SP_Expected_Standings

FPI Results

The FPI results for the B1G West show the Badgers with and even wider lead than does S&P+, now at cool 8.0 expected B1G wins. With a margin now in excess of 3.6 wins over next-best Northwestern (who it has already beaten) at 4.4 expected wins, the Badgers only risk may be stooping getting down on its hands-and-knees prostrating itself to the level of its competition. As with S&P+, FPI expects the Badgers toughest match will be when it hosts Michigan, yet even then the Badgers are favored by nearly 10 points. As for the second tier, less than 1.2 expected wins separate the middle five teams in the B1GW.

To summarize, here are the final B1G standings as projected by FPI:

2017w06_FPI_Expected_Standings

Power Rank Results

Like in the B1G East, the Power Rank results for the B1G West show a much tighter and more competitive race to Indy. PR shows the Badgers at the top, with 7.2 expected B1G wins. Wisconsin’s lead over next-best Iowa has expanded to a margin of 2.2 expected wins. Contrary to the other ratings, PR expects the Badgers toughest match will be when it hosts division rival Iowa, with a margin of just over a field goal. The Boilers and Huskers both lag the Hawkeyes by about 1.1 wins at 3.8 expected B1G wins, with the ‘Cats just another 0.2 further back. PR’s love for the Boilers continues to grow.

To summarize, here are the final B1G standings as projected by the Power Rank:

2017w06_PR_Expected_Standings

B1G West Expected Conference Wins Distributions

S&P+ Results

The S&P+ chart shows the expanding void between the Badgers and the morass that is the remainder of the B1G West. The Badgers are firmly ensconced in a balanced 8-win mode. As such, Wisconsin is the only team in the B1GW with any prospect for going undefeated, which now stands at just over 28%.

Purdue is now next-best, and claims sole possession of the 5-win mode, but leaning heavily back toward 4 wins. The next four teams are clustered between the 4-win and 3-win modes, not the least of whom is Nebraska – but that may change this week after OSU hangs another half-a-hundred on the Huskers. Dropping out of the bottom is of course, Illinois, standing alone the 1-win mode.

FPI Results

FPI tells a similar story as S&P+ as to the Badgers’ separation from the rest of the B1GW. The Badgers are holding steady in an 8-win mode, with a strong lean toward going undefeated. It has the best and only prospect for going undefeated in the B1GW, at just over 33% (about 11 points less than OSU). The next-best is Northwestern, who shares a 4-win mode with Purdue, Nebraska and Iowa, but leans strongly toward 5 wins. On the lower side of that jumble in the middle is Minnesota, popping out in a 3-win mode. FPI shows the Illini sinking toward rock bottom with a 1-win mode, worse than even LOLRutgerz.

Power Rank Results

Trying to make things at least a little interesting as noted earlier, the Power Rank predicts a slightly more competitive B1GW race. PR has the Badgers in a 7-win mode, but now leaning strongly toward 8 wins. The door is beginning to close for next-best Iowa, who stands alone as the closest competitor with a balanced 5-win mode. The next three – Purdue, Nebraska and Northwestern – all share the 4-win mode trying to at least keep pace and hoping for some calamity. Meanwhile, the Gophers had dropped down into a balanced at a 3-win mode, but managing to stay ahead of the Illini, who have regressed into the 1-win mode. Wisconsin still has the best and only prospect in the B1GW for going undefeated at about 11%, about equal to OSU’s chances, and 6 points less than PSU’s chances.

Overlay Redux

Just to wrap things up with a quick visual summary, here are the combined overlays of the total wins probabilities broken out by division, sized for download and quick-reference on your smarty-pants phone.

S&P+ Results

FPI Results

Power Rank Results

Yours in football, and Go Blue!

P.S. As a bonus for scrolling this far, here’s a link to the complete volume of 2017 week 6 charts, which includes a few bonus nuggets not presented in the diary.

B1G Expectations: 2017 Week 4 Total Conference Wins Update

B1G Expectations: 2017 Week 4 Total Conference Wins Update

Submitted by Ecky Pting on September 29th, 2017 at 9:30 PM

Big_Ten_Conference_logo.png Expectations

“I must be taken as I have been made. The success is not mine, the failure is not mine, but the two together make me.”

- Estella Havisham (Great Expectations by Charles Dickens)

Spin Up

Another week’s worth of sample size growth, and with a smattering of in-conference matchups included, the linkages among teams become meshed to higher degrees. The influence of the preseason conjectures continues to wane, although somewhat prolonged due to acts of God such as hurricanes. Still, what remains consists of the best of all possible stats. These are the stats that reveal the true nature of teams and their comparative prospects for success. These are the stats that offer a glimmer of hope and a rumble of impending doom. These are the stats that are suitable for use in flying off a handle, jumping to a conclusion, or even goading a rival.


Schedules, Spreads & Win Probabilities

With the non-conference portion of the schedule behind us, the analysis here can turn its focus upon the all-important in-conference slate and make a closer examination of the prospects for the teams to make it to the B1GCG in Indy the first Saturday of December.


B1G East Schedule Rundown

The tables of schedules below shows the overall schedules for all seven teams in the B1G East based on the ratings following week 4. The last table in each set simply shows a rank-ordering of the B1GE teams based on their  expected in-conference win totals - it’s not a projection of divisional standings based on projected wins, losses, and tie-breakers.


S&P+ Results

So with the obfuscation of the non-conference segment removed, the true balance of power in the B1GE is revealed. For the S&P+, that balance tilts toward the Buckeyes, who lead the B1GE with 7.6 expected conference wins. The Nits trail by 0.7 wins, and the Wolverines another 0.7 wins behind the Nits at 6.2 expected wins. Also carrying over from last week is the the fact that OSU remains favored in all of its remaining games, including by almost a field goal when they visit Ann Arbor. The other two contenders - Penn State and Michigan – remain underdogs, respectively, in one and three games apiece.

Two others - Michigan State and Indiana - persist in the bubble of bowl eligibility and claim the middle ground of the B1GE. At not quite 4 expected conference wins, Sparty may have a losing record in conference, but could make it to an early-December, cold-weather, empty-stadium toilet bowl. The Hoosiers lag Sparty by another 0.3 B1G wins, but could get screwed bowl-wise since their game at FIU was cancelled and could only get to 2-0 OOC. Meanwhile, the Terps are in world of hurt, being reduced to playing their 4th string QB after such a bright beginning. It could not be much worse, but worse it is for LOLRutgerz, who like the Terps are underdogs in all but one of its remaining games.

Looking ahead, S&P+ shows Michigan favored by just over 15 points in its next game vs. Sparty, for a win likelihood of about 84%, or about 1:5 odds.


FPI Results

The FPI results still differ considerably from those of S&P+, the most notable difference being that Ohio State is favored by more than one score - and nearly double-digits - in all its remaining games. OSU leads the B1GE with just over 8 expected conference wins, nearly a full win better than next-best PSU. The FPI results show U-M lagging by another 1.8 wins behind PSU at 5.3 expected B1G wins. Penn State has a single deficit margin, to OSU, by greater than one-score to OSU. The Wolverines, meanwhile, has a deficit margin in 3 games (PSU, Wisconsin & OSU), all by double-digits. What’s more, FPI also shows U-M favored over the Terps by just over 4 points, and over the Hoosier by just over a single score.

FPI has the same teams on the verge of bowl-eligibility, just in a different order: Maryland, Indiana and Michigan State. FPI concurs that LOLRutgerz can be left for dead.

Looking ahead, Michigan is favored by just over two touchdowns in its next game vs. Purdue, for a win likelihood of 83%, or about 1:5 odds.


Power Rank Results

Now here is where the fancy stats get a little interesting. The Power Rank concurs with S&P+ & FPI in putting OSU at the top, but only with about 6.6 expected B1G wins. U-M is next best with about 6 expected wins, putting Penn State in the three-spot with about 5.8 expected B1G wins. PR projects a much tighter race, with a good number more losses in the mix. Those potential losses would be to … the Terps? PR appears to like the Terps a lot, to the extent that they’re underdogs by only a PAT to PSU and UM when each visits College Park. Moreover, PR has no team favored in all of its remaining games. Indeed, PR has OSU as an underdog to your ever-lovin’ Maize’n’Blue. PSU is an underdog to OSU, and UM is an underdog to PSU, (and Wisconsin).

Looking ahead, Michigan is favored by just under 15 points in its next game vs. Sparty, for a win likelihood of 83%, or about 1:5 odds.


B1G East Expected Conference Wins Distributions

The bar plots below show the expected total conference wins distributions for teams in the B1G East, in alphabetical order. Noted above each bar is the probability for that number of wins (you may need to click & embiggen to read it). The bar with the highest value is the most likely outcome (the mode). Also flagged on each plot is the expected overall win total (the mean). The last multiline plot (bottom right) is just an overlay of the same data from the other seven bar plots.


S&P+ Results

Contrary to the logjam that the S&P+ distributions looked like for overall wins last week, the distributions for conference wins show a clear separation among the three contenders at the top. The Buckeyes’ loss to the Sooners is of course irrelevant for this analysis. OSU, PSU and Michigan each have sole possession of the 8-win, 7-win and 6-win modes, respectively. OSU shows a slight lean toward 7 wins, and Michigan shows a strong lean up toward 7 wins. Both have about the same likelihood of 7 wins. As of now, the likelihood of the Buckeyes winning out in the B1G is 19.0%. The likelihoods of Michigan and PSU winning out stands at at about 2.0% and 6.5%, respectively.

As for the others, Sparty and the Hoosiers share the 4-win mode, with the Hoosiers leaning slightly toward 3 wins. Meanwhile, S&P+ woebegotten Maryland now has a distribution that is nearly indistinguishable from LOLRutgers, peaking at the 2-win mode.


FPI Results

The FPI results show a broader separation at the top. OSU still leads at the 8-win mode, with a strong lean toward winning out. PSU is at the 7-win mode with a strong lean toward 8 wins. Meanwhile, Michigan down at the 5-win mode, but nearly even with the 6-win mode. The OSU distribution shows a very tight variance, which means its loss components are smaller and concentrated in fewer games than most other teams. The result is OSU having a 35% chance of winning out. Yet, PSU’s chance of winning out holds at about 8%, but Michigan’s chances of doing the same are negligibly small.

From there, the next closest team, Maryland, has sole possession of the 4-win mode, followed by the Hoosiers and Sparty sharing the 3-win mode.


Power Rank Results

Meanwhile, the Power Rank continues to predict the tightest race of the three ratings in the B1GE. OSU shows an edge occupying the 7-win mode with a 5% chance of winning out. UM and PSU share the 6-win mode with nearly indistinguishable, balanced distributions. Both have just under a 2% chance of winning out, while OSU’s likelihood of winning out is just over 5%. Maryland has sole occupancy of the 5-win mode, the best look of the ratings for the Terps. Sparty and Indiana lag behind at the 3-win mode, both nearly even with the 4-win mode.


B1G West Schedule Rundown

The next two tables of schedules shows the overall schedules for all seven teams in the B1G West based on S&P+ and FPI week 1 results. Again, the last table in each figure simply shows a rank-ordering of the B1GW teams based on their  expected win totals - it’s not a projection of divisional conference standings per se.


S&P+ Results

Watching the B1GW feels like watching paint dry grass grow. Next rotation, same groove (BTW, has anyone reading this ever actually heard a broken record?). In the B1G West, the S&P+ results show the Badgers’ death grip on the top position. The Badgers are in a sense in contention with only themselves for the B1GW title. The Badgers are the only team in the West expected to win all of its games, with its toughest matchup expected when Michigan comes to Camp Randall. Someday M fans will feel confident in going on the road and winning a big game. Maybe after the satisfyingly salty win at Ross-Ade Stadium, that will be someday soon-ish? Michigan remains the only Wisconsin opponent that is less than a one-score underdog, so there’s that. At that point, of course, the Badgers may well have already locked up its bid to Indy, so maybe UM sneak out with a win over the Badgers’ 2nd string? Anyway, with a margin in excess of 3 expected wins over the next closest competitors, now Northwestern and Minnesota, an invitation to the B1GCG in Indy seems nearly a foregone conclusion. And so it goes, the Wisconsin cake walk shimmies on:


cake·walk
ˈkākˌwôk/
noun

informal. An absurdly or surprisingly easy task, such as the Wisconsin Badgers 2017 NCAA football schedule. "winning the B1GW title should be a cakewalk"

Meanwhile, Northwestern, Minnesota, Nebraska and Iowa within one expected B1G win of each other. Purdue continues to bubble up from the bottom despite dropping a game to Michigan. Purdue is now a full expected win ahead of the Illini and is less than a game back of Iowa, who also has one conference loss thus far.


FPI Results

The FPI results for the B1G West show the Badgers with and even wider lead than does S&P+, with better than 7.7 expected B1G wins. With a margin excess of 3.1 wins over next-best Minnesota, the Badgers only risk may be stooping to the level of its competition. As with S&P+, FPI expects the Badgers toughest match will be when it hosts Michigan, yet even then the Badgers are favored by double-digits.

As for second tier, less than a tenth of an expected win separate the ‘Cats from the Gophers. Another 0.3 wins back are the Hawkeyes, and FPI has puts the Boilermakers next with 3.8 expected B1G wins, putting them close to bowl-eligibility. Poor-damn-Huskers continue their decline, but still hold a 1.2 expected win edge over bottom feeding Illinois.

Power Rank Results

The Power Rank results for the B1G West also show the Badgers at the top, but with only about 6.7 expected B1G wins. Wisconsin’s lead over next-best Iowa is by a much more competitive margin of 1.6 expected wins. Like the other ratings, PR expects the Badgers toughest match will be when it hosts Michigan favored by just under 4 points. The Gophers lag the Hawkeyes by just 0.4 at 4.7 expected B1G wins, with Northwestern just another 0.3 behind Iowa. PR doesn’t have the same love for Purdue as the the other ratings, placing the Boilers only 0.5 wins better than the Illini.


B1G West Expected Conference Wins Distributions


S&P+ Results

The S&P+ chart graphically illustrates the enormous separation between the Badgers and the B1GW peleton, apparently drafting behind one another waiting for one of the other teams break away. The Badgers are firmly in the 8-win mode, with a slight lean back toward the 7-win mode. As such, Wisconsin has the best prospects for winning out and having an undefeated season in the entire B1G at a cool 20%. No other team in the B1GW has anything close to a chance.

Northwestern and Minnesota come in at technically the 5-win mode, but both are nearly evenly split onto the 4-win mode. Nebraska edges Iowa with a slight lean toward the 5-win mode from the 4-win mode they both occupy. A game back from there is Purdue at the 3-win mode, while Illinois stands alone at the bottom in the 2-win mode.


FPI Results

FPI concurs with S&P+ regarding the Badgers’ separation from the rest of the B1GW competition, placing them in the 8-win mode with the best prospect for an undefeated season in the entire B1G at greater than 25%. No other team in the B1GW has a chance. The next-bests are Northwestern and Minnesota with 5-win modes that are nearly even splits with the 4-win mode. From there, the Hawkeyes and Boilers share the 4-win mode, with the former leaning toward 5 wins, and the latter toward 3 wins. The Huskers are clinging to their “it could be worse” mentality in the 3-win mode, as it looks over its shoulder at the Illini in their 2-win mode.


Power Rank Results

Trying to make things at least a little interesting, the Power Rank predicts a slightly more competitive B1GW race. PR has the Badgers balanced in the 7-win mode, leaving the door open for next-best Iowa and Minnesota. The Hawkeyes and Gophers have nearly identical distributions with balanced 5-win modes. From there, the Wildcats are at a 4-win mode, but pushing hard toward 5 wins. Also in the 4-win mode are the Huskers, but with a slight lean toward 3 wins. Meanwhile, the Boilers are firmly balanced at a 3-win mode, managing to stay ahead of the Illini in the 2-win mode. Wisconsin still has the best prospect for an undefeated season in the entire B1G at about 7%, just edging out OSU’s chances. No other team in the B1GW has a chance.

Overlay Redux

Just to wrap things up with a quick visual summary, here are the combined overlays of the total wins probabilities broken out by division, sized for download and quick-reference on your smarty-pants phone.

S&P+ Results

FPI Results

Power Rank Results

Yours in football, and Go Blue!

P.S. As a bonus for scrolling this far, here’s a link to the complete volume of 2017 week 4 charts, which includes a few bonus nuggets not presented in the diary.

B1G Expectations: 2017 Week 3 Total Overall Win Probabilities

B1G Expectations: 2017 Week 3 Total Overall Win Probabilities

Submitted by Ecky Pting on September 22nd, 2017 at 11:00 PM

   Big_Ten_Conference_logo.png Expectations

“To my thinking, there was something in him that made it hopeless to attempt to disguise him.”

- Abel Magwitch (Great Expectations by Charles Dickens)

Spin Up

Another week’s worth of data has gone into the hopper from which the algorithms draw upon to churn out the metrics known in these parts as fancy stats – and as stats go, fancy stats are all above average! As the sample size continues to grow, and as the linkages among teams becomes completely meshed, the influence of the preseason conjectures continues its inexorable decline into nothingness. The essence that remains consists of the best of all possible stats. These are the stats that reveal the true nature of teams and their comparative prospects for success. These are the stats that offer a glimmer of hope and a rumble of impending doom. These are the stats that are suitable for use in flying off a handle, jumping to a conclusion, or even goading a rival.

Schedules, Spreads & Win Probabilities

Since for the most part we’ve just wrapped up the glorious non-conference segment of the season, the analysis here will take one last look at the overall schedules including OOC games - the breakdowns for in-conference schedules will kick in next week after most OOC games have been played.

Also note that in the following table of schedules, the applied Red-Green color-map accentuates the forecast point spreads and win probability of each game. A color-shift toward the red corresponds to a more likely loss, and a green shift indicates a more likely win. Also, the colors for both columns are mapped to the win probability number. The sequence of individual win probabilities over the course of a team’s schedule are then used to compute the distribution of total expected wins for the entire season.

B1G East Schedule Rundown

The table of schedules below shows the overall schedules for all seven teams in the B1G East based on the Bill Connelly’s S&P+ week 2 ratings. The last table simply shows a rank-ordering of the B1GE teams based on their  expected in-conference win totals - it’s not a projection of divisional standings based on projected wins, losses, and tie-breakers.

S&P+ Results

Our fickle fancy stats friend, the S&P+, continues to be torn between two suitors: the Nittany Lions and the Buckeyes. The Nits lead the B1GE with 10.1 expected wins overall, expanding its margin ahead of the Nutjobs to a solid half win. Yet,carrying over from last week is the the fact that OSU remains favored in all of its remaining games, albeit by a razor thin margin when they visit Ann Arbor. The other two contenders - Penn State and Michigan - are underdogs, respectively, in one and three games apiece.

Three others - Michigan State, Maryland and Indiana - persist on the bubble of bowl eligibility. At 6.4 expected wins, Sparty meets the threshold, yet is still a underdog in 6 more games. The Terps, at 5.3 expected wins, are now underdogs in 7 of their remaining games. The Hoosiers are underdogs in only 5 more games, but with a loss already, their down to 5.3 expected wins. Last and least, of course, is LOLRutgerz – underdogs in all of its remaining games - maintains its rigor mortis-like grip on the bottom slot, yet the loss likelihood lumpiness principle has the Knights mustering 3.2 wins, including the win over FCS Morgan State.

Looking ahead, S&P+ shows Michigan favored by just over 17 points in its next game vs. Purdue, for a win likelihood of about 87%, or about 3:20 odds.

FPI Results

The FPI results still differ considerably from those of S&P+, the most notable difference being that Ohio State is favored by more than one score - and nearly double-digits - in all its remaining games. Yet, OSU drops into a virtual tie with PSU for the B1GE lead with 10 expected wins. FPI results still show U-M pulling up a bit short of 8.6 expected wins. Penn State and Michigan are underdogs in one and three games, respectively, and all by greater than one-score margins. FPI has the same teams on the bowl-eligibility bubble as S&P+, just in a different order: Maryland, Michigan State and Indiana. FPI concurs that LOLRutgerz can be left for dead.

Looking ahead, Michigan is favored by just over two touchdowns in its next game vs. Purdue, for a win likelihood of 82%, or about 2:9 odds.

Power Rank Results

The Power Rank concurs with S&P+, putting Penn State in the lead with 9.6 expected wins. OSU lags about 0.5 wins behind, with Michigan lagging about 0.9 expected wins behind the Nits. PR has gone back to favoring OSU in all of its remaining games, with its toughest matchup being The Game, in which its favored by less than a PAT. Unfortunately, UM remains an underdog to PSU and Wisconsin, as well as OSU. PSU is an underdog only to OSU in Columbus by about a field goal.

Looking ahead, Michigan is favored by just over 11 points in its next game vs. Purdue, for a win likelihood of 76%, or about 1:3 odds.

B1G East Expected Conference Wins Distributions

The bar plots below show the expected total overall wins distributions for teams in the B1G East, in alphabetical order. Noted above each bar is the probability for that number of wins (you may need to click & embiggen to read it). The bar with the highest value is the most likely outcome (the mode). Also flagged on each plot is the expected overall win total (the mean). The last multiline plot (bottom right) is just an overlay of the same data from the other seven bar plots.


S&P+ Results

Here S&P+ shows a veritable logjam at the top among the three contenders. Two of them, OSU and PSU, occupy the 10-win mode, with OUS leaning slightly toward 9 wins while PSU leans slightly toward 11 wins. Michigan has slid back to the 9-win mode, but with a strong lean toward 10 wins. The key caveat is that one of OSU’s losses is already known to be OOC, which works to their advantage for now. The next opportunity for Michigan to effect any significant shift in its mode will be in its matchup with Indiana, the week before it goes head-to-head with Penn State in Happy Valley. As of now, the likelihoods of Michigan and PSU winning out stands at at about 2.5% and 9.3%, respectively. Of course, the likelihood of OSU having an undefeated season is still 0%.

Sparty manages to hold onto the lead among the bubble teams at the 6-win mode with a strong lead toward 7 wins. Meanwhile, Indiana and Maryland have very similar S&P+ distributions occupying the 5-win mode leaning toward 6 wins.


FPI Results

The FPI results the leaders OSU and PSU sharing the 10-win mode, both leaning toward 11 wins. Michigan lags behind at the 9-win mode, with a strong leand toward 8 wins. The OSU distribution also shows a very tight variance, which means its loss components are smaller and concentrated in fewer games than most other teams. Yet, PSU’s chance of winning out holds at about 7%, whereas Michigan’s chances of doing the same are negligibly small.

From there, a 2 win gap separates the next closest team, Maryland, at the 7-win mode. Sparty lags one behind at the 6-win mode, and the Hoosiers are in the 5-win mode. Despite the variations three have nearly the same 3:1 odds of 6 wins on the season, for what that’s worth.


Power Rank Results

Meanwhile, the Power Rank continues to predict the tightest race of the three ratings in the B1GE. PSU shows a slight edge occupying the 10-win mode with a 5% chance of winning out. UM and OSU share the 9-win mode, with OSU leaning toward 10 wins, UM toward 8 wins. The Wolverines have about a 1% chance of winning out. Meanwhile, Maryland and Indiana share the 6-win mode while Sparty slides back to 5 wins. Yet, all three bubble teams are crowded into the 6-win mode at about 3:1 odds.


B1G West Schedule Rundown

The next two tables of schedules shows the overall schedules for all seven teams in the B1G West based on S&P+ and FPI week 1 results. Again, the last table in each figure simply shows a rank-ordering of the B1GW teams based on their  expected win totals - it’s not a projection of divisional conference standings per se.


S&P+ Results

Watching the B1GW is beginning to feel like watching paint dry. So, sorry if this is getting to sound like a broken record (BTW, has anyone reading this ever actually heard a broken record?). In the B1G West, the S&P+ results show the Badgers’ continued strangle-hold on the top position and in sense are in contention with only themselves for the B1GW title. The Badgers are the only team in the West expected to win all of its games, with its toughest matchup being when Michigan comes to Camp Randall. Someday M fans will feel confident in going on the road and winning a big game. Someday soon-ish? Michigan is the only Wisconsin opponent that is less than a one-score underdog, so there’s that. At that point, of course, the Badgers may well have already locked up its bid to Indy, so maybe UM could mop up against the Badgers 2nd string? Anyway, with a margin in excess of 3 expected wins over the next closest competitors, now Minnesota and Iowa, an invitation to the B1GCG in Indy seems nearly a foregone conclusion. When considering the Badger’s schedule, term “cake walk” comes to mind. In fact, if one looks up the term “cake walk” in the dictionary:


cake·walk
ˈkākˌwôk/
noun

informal. An absurdly or surprisingly easy task, such as the Wisconsin Badgers 2017 NCAA football schedule. "winning the B1GW title should be a cakewalk"

Meanwhile, Iowa, Minnesota and Northwestern remain within one expected win of each other. What was once a very full bubble of teams vying for bowl eligibility has been deflated by one with Nebraska screwing the NIU pooch. Worth noting are a couple of teams that appear to be percolating up from the bottom - Illinois and of course, Purdue - suggesting that recent coaching changes may precipitate a change in the status quo. Just not too much change. Until next week, at least. Please.


FPI Results

The FPI results for the B1G West show the Badgers maintaining an even tighter strangle-hold on the top position than does S&P+, with better than 10.4 expected wins. With a margin excess of 3.0 wins over next-best Iowa, the Badgers only risk may be stooping to the level of its competition. As with S&P+, FPI expects the Badgers toughest match will be when it hosts Michigan, yet even then the Badgers are favored by a margin of more than a touchdown.

As for bubble teams, the Hawkeyes look like a solid bowl-bid team, it’s just a question of how late in the season their slot might be. Hot on the Hawks’ heels, however are the Gophers, only 0.2 expected wins behind. Northwestern and Nebraska Purdue(!) lag another win and 2 wins behind, respectively. Nebraska, meanwhile, is settling toward the bottom. Holding down sole possession of the bottom is Illinois.

Looking up the standings, as many expected wins separate Illinois from the Hawkeyes as separate the Hawkeyes from the Badgers.

Power Rank Results

The Power Rank results for the B1G West also show the Badgers at the top with an expanding 9.8 expected wins, but their lead is by a much more competitive margin of 1.5 expected wins over next-best Iowa Minnesota. Unlike the other ratings, PR expects the Badgers toughest match will not be when it hosts Michigan, but when it closes the season at Minnesota! Nonetheless, it both games the Badgers are favored by less than one score. The Hawkeyes lag the Gophers by just 0.1 at 8.2 expected wins, with Northwestern and Nebraska Purdue closing out the bubble teams.


B1G West Expected Conference Wins Distributions


S&P+ Results

The S&P+ chart graphically illustrates the ever expanding separation between the Badgers and the next tier of teams, who would appear to be contending more for a quality bowl invitation than for the B1GW title. The Badgers have pushed up to the 11-win mode, with a lean back toward the 10-win mode. Wisconsin has the best prospects for an undefeated season in the entire B1G at nearly 16%. No other team in the B1GW has anything close to a chance.

Iowa and Minnesota come in at the 7-win mode, with the Gophers leaning slight toward 8 wins. A game back from there is Northwestern at the 6-win mode pressing strongly toward 7 wins.

What is remarkable at this point is that Purdue and Nebraska now have nearly indistinguishable distributions that are balanced at the 5-win mode. Illinois stands alone at the bottom in the 4-win mode.


FPI Results

FPI concurs with S&P+ regarding the Badgers’ separation from the rest of the B1GW competition. FPI once again has the Badgers in an 11-win mode.  Wisconsin has the best prospect for an undefeated season in the entire B1G at 15%. No other team in the B1GW has a chance. The next-bests are Iowa and Minnesota with 7-win modes, both leaning strongly toward 8 wins. From there, the Wildcats have sole occupancy of the 6-win mode. Purdue has managed to creep up and assume a distribution that is nearly indistinguishable from Nebraska that occupies the 5-win mode. Illinois brings up the rear at the 4-win mode.


Power Rank Results

Trying to make things at least a little interesting, the Power Rank predicts a slightly more competitive B1GW race. PR has the Badgers balanced in the 10-win mode, leaving the door open for next-best being Iowa and Minnesota. The Hawkeyes and Gophers have nearly identical distributions with 8-win modes leaning strongly toward 9 wins. From there, the Wildcats managed to creep up to the 7-win mode now, leaning back toward 6 wins. PR seems to be equally bullish on the Boilers, placing them in the 5-win mode with the Huskers. However, the Boilers show a strong lean toward 6 wins and bowl-eligibility, while the Huskers lean back toward 4 wins. Wisconsin still has the best prospect for an undefeated season in the entire B1G at about 7%, just edging out PSU’s chances. No other team in the B1GW has a chance.

Overlay Redux

Just to wrap things up with a quick visual summary, here are the combined overlays of the total wins probabilities broken out by division, sized for download and quick-reference on your smarty-pants phone.

S&P+ Results

FPI Results

Power Rank Results

Yours in football, and Go Blue!

P.S. As a bonus for scrolling this far, here’s a link to the complete volume of 2017 week 3 charts, which includes a few bonus nuggets not presented in the diary.

B1G Expectations: 2017 Week 1 Total Overall Win Probabilities

B1G Expectations: 2017 Week 1 Total Overall Win Probabilities

Submitted by Ecky Pting on September 10th, 2017 at 12:28 PM

Big_Ten_Conference_logo.png Expectations

"I am ashamed to say it ... and yet it's no worse to say it than to think it. You call me a lucky fellow. Of course, I am. I was a blacksmith's boy but yesterday; I am - what shall I say I am - today?"

- Pip, (Charles Dickens’ Great Expectations)

Preamble

The foreshortened interval between weeks (due to the Labor Day holiday) conspired with the so-called work-life see-saw to see to it that this posting is at least a day later than hoped, and also includes only FPI and S&P+ results (i.e. no Power Rank data). So, keep that in mind should you care to read on, particularly in regard to Ohio State numbers. Otherwise, I’m just posting this for the record and to provide a point of reference for the week 2 update.

Overall Wins Spin Up

With one week now concluded (and week two updates pending), the fancy-stats algorithms can now spit out slightly more meaningful analyses based on the objective (if not deterministic) statistics generated from actual game play. The rub at this juncture of course is that the statistics are not of the greatest quality for the purposes of predicting future performance for various reasons, not the least of which is the small sample size. The exercise of coming up with more reasons for ignoring these early season statistics are left as an exercise for the reader in the comments below. That said, it doesn’t stop the publication of the statistics such as they are. Nor does it preclude the further rumination on said statistics into still more statistics as a means to enable further discussion, jumping to conclusions, flying off of the handle or goading your rival.

Schedules, Spreads & Win Probabilities

Since we’re still in the midst of the glorious non-conference segment of the season, it’s a good time to jump back and review the overall schedules, but now with the updated albeit arguably flawed statistics applied.

Note that in the following table of schedules, the applied Red-Green color-map accentuates the forecast point spreads and win probability of each game. A color-shift toward the red corresponds to a more likely loss, and a green shift indicates a more likely win. Also, the colors for both columns are mapped to the win probability number.  The sequence of individual win probabilities over the course of a team’s schedule are then used to compute the distribution of total expected wins for the entire season.

B1G East Schedule Rundown

The following two tables of schedules shows the overall schedules for all seven teams in the B1G East based on S&P+ and FPI week 1 results. The last table simply shows a rank-ordering of the B1GE teams based on their  expected in-conference win totals - it’s not a projection of divisional standings based on projected wins, losses, and tie-breakers.

S&P+ Results

Oh, what a fickle friend is fancy stats. It appears with this new season is that the love affair that had previously existed between S&P+ and our beloved Wolverines appears to have shifted to the Buckeyes. OSU is the only team that is favored in all of its games. The other two contenders - Penn State and Michigan - are underdogs, respectively, in one and three games apiece. Three others - Indiana, Michigan State and Maryland - are on the bubble of bowl eligibility. Last and least, LOLRutgerz resumes its position as the eternal bottom-feeder.

In the aggregate, Ohio State leads the B1GE with about 10.4 expected wins, about 0.8 better than Michigan and Penn State, who show in near identical expected win totals. The Buckeyes are the only team with a double-digit expected win total. PSU maintains a better position in terms of the lumpiness of its distribution, in that most of its loss likelihood is lumped into a single game: at Ohio State. edging Ohio State for the top spot by just over 1.4 wins. Nearly 2 full games separate Ohio State from the next 2 teams, PSU and MSU.

FPI Results

The FPI results differs considerable from those of S&P+, the most notable difference that Penn State has a solitary hold on the #2 spot. OSU still tops all teams in the B1GE with just over 11 expected wins, now ahead of PSU by a cool 1.1 expected wins. FPI results show U-M pulling up a bit short of 9 expected wins. Similar to S&P+, OSU is the only team that is favored in all of its games. The other two contenders - Penn State and Michigan - are underdogs, respectively, in one and three games apiece. FPI has the same teams on the bowl-eligibility bubble, just in a different order: Maryland, Indiana and Michigan State. FPI concurs that LOLRutgerz belongs at the bottom.

B1G East Expected Conference Wins Distributions

The bar plots below show the expected total overall wins distributions for teams in the B1G East, in alphabetical order. Noted above each bar is the probability for that number of wins (you may need to click & embiggen to read it). The bar with the highest value is the most likely outcome (the mode). Also flagged on each plot is the expected overall win total (the mean). The last line plot is just an overlay of the same data from the other seven bar plots.

S&P+ Results

This opening round of S&P+ distributions show a bit of logjam among the three teams at the top. In fact, the Michigan and PSU distributions are nearly indistinguishable, which is of course a shift from the pre-season chart before Michigan dismantled Florida and erased a good chunk of its expected loss component. Likewise, Indiana and Michigan have very similar S&P+ distributions, with modes of 6 wins, compared to a 5-win mode for Maryland. The next opportunity for Michigan to effect a significant shift in its mode will be in its matchup with Indiana, the week before it goes head-to-head with Penn State in Happy Valley. Should OSU drop its upcoming matchup with Oklahoma (which it has done as of this posting), then OSU would drop in to a similar mode as Michigan and PSU heading into conference play. As of now, the likelihood of OSU having an undefeated season stands at 15% 0%, followed by Michigan and PSU at about 4%.

FPI Results

The FPI results show a more clear separation among the contenders, with OSU have a solitary hold on the 11-win mode with a strong lean toward an undefeated season. The OSU distribution also shows a very tight variance, which means its loss components are concentrated in fewer games than most other teams. As for PSU, it has a strong 10 win likelihood, with a slight lean toward 11 wins. Meanwhile, Michigan is holding onto the 9-win mode, but still with a strong lean toward 8 wins.

From there, a 3 win gap separates the next closest teams, Maryland and Indiana, both with modes of 6 wins, and Sparty lagging one behind at 5 wins. Remarkably, MSU is only one win ahead of LOLRutgerz. MSU at LOLRutgerz to close the the season - the Slobber-Knocker of Self-Loathing - is shaping up to be another instant BTN Classic.

B1G West Schedule Rundown

The next two tables of schedules shows the overall schedules for all seven teams in the B1G West based on S&P+ and FPI week 1 results. Again, the last table in each figure simply shows a rank-ordering of the B1GW teams based on their  expected win totals - it’s not a projection of divisional conference standings per se.

S&P+ Results

In the B1G West, the S&P+ results show the Badgers maintaining a strangle-hold on the top position and in sense are in contention with only themselves for the B1GW title. Indeed, the Badgers are the only team in the West expected to win all of its games, with its toughest matchup being when Michigan comes to Camp Randall. At that point, the Badgers may well have already locked up its bid to Indy. With a margin in excess of 3 expected wins over the next closest competitors, Nebraska and Northwestern, an invitation to the B1GCG in Indy seems nearly a foregone conclusion. Meanwhile, Iowa and Minnesota are both within a game of Nebraska and Northwestern, which makes for a very full bubble of teams vying for bowl eligibility. Sunk on the bottom are the dregs of the West, Illinois and Purdue, who can only hope that recent coaching changes may precipitate a change in the status quo.

FPI Results

The FPI results for the B1G West show the Badgers maintaining an even tighter strangle-hold on the top position than does S&P+, at nearly 10.8 expected wins. With an expanded margin excess of 3.2 wins over next-best Northwestern, the Badgers only risk may be stooping to the level of its competition. As with S&P+, FPI expects the Badgers toughest match will be when it hosts Michigan, yet even then the Badgers are favored by a margin of 9 points. Iowa lags the ‘Cats by another 1.2 at 6.7 expected wins, with Nebraska and Minny closing out the bubble teams. Remaining anchored on the bottom are Purdue and Illinois.

B1G West Expected Conference Wins Distributions

S&P+ Results

This opening round of S&P+ distributions graphically illustrates the separation between the Badgers and the next tier of teams, who would appear to be contending more for a quality bowl invitation than for the B1GW title. The Badgers come in at the 10-win mode, but that is practically even with the 11-win mode. Nebraska and Northwestern have nearly indistinguishable distributions with with a 7-win modes that lean toward 8 wins. A game back from there are Iowa and Minnesota.

Wisconsin has one of the best prospects for an undefeated season in the entire B1G at nearly 13%. No other team in the B1GW has a chance.

FPI Results

The story from FPI is much the same as that from S&P+, particularly in regard to the Badgers, just with a bit more emphasis. FPI has a similar separation between the Badgers 11-win mode and the next-best ‘Cats’ 8-win mode. FPI does distinguish between the ‘Cats and the third best Hawkeyes at the 7-win mode. From there, the Huskers and Gophers each occupy the next lower modes (6 wins and 5 wins, respectively).

Likewise per FPI, Wisconsin has one of the best prospects for an undefeated season in the entire B1G at more than 26%. No other team in the B1GW has a chance.

Overlay Redux

Just to wrap things up with a quick visual summary, here are the combined overlays of the total wins probabilities broken out by division, sized for download and quick-reference on your smarty-pants phone.

S&P+ Results

FPI Results

Yours in football, and Go Blue!

ESPN FPI Team Efficiencies Update, 2017 Week 1

ESPN FPI Team Efficiencies Update, 2017 Week 1

Submitted by Ecky Pting on September 8th, 2017 at 1:13 PM

Whoops! I almost forgot to pick up this digest from last season!

The updated FPI team efficiency ratings have been posted, and Michigan comes in at #19 overall. As a start, this leaves a great deal of room for improvement from last season's entry point at #1 and closing point at #3. The U-M splits are offense, #59; defense, #3; and special teams, #37.

Obligitory disclaimer: first week ratings such a this are very noisy, but by week 3 or 4 these results should be more meaningful...

Of U-M's other 2017 opponents, PSU looks the strongest at #5 overall, followed by Maryland at #10 and AIR FORCE at #14! As such, the Falcons look like M's toughest OOC opponent, since the Gators pull up at a perfectly mediocre #64. Michigan does manage to edge OSU by one spot, so there's that. Oh yea, and Sparty enters at a much improved #52 to retain the title of Third Best Team in the State of Michigan. Meanwhile Western Michigan enters at #39.

Overall, 2 of Michigan's opponents are in the top ten, 5 are in the upper quartile of the ratings; all but 3 are in the upper half; and only one (Cincy) is in the lowest quartile.

Here's a brief synopsis of the ratings, or click the link above to see the whole list &/or sort by category:

RK TEAM OFF DEF S/T O'ALL
1 Stanford, Pac-12 98.2 93.6 45.6 98.9
2 Alabama, SEC 67.6 97.7 96.5 97.5
3 Army, FBS Indep. 97.5 66.4 100.0 96.8
4 Duke, ACC 86.3 98.4 57.9 96.8
5 Penn State, Big Ten 83.2 89.1 98.5 96.2
6 LSU, SEC 89.3 95.6 35.7 95.5
7 Vanderbilt, SEC 91.1 94.4 17.3 95.2
8 Clemson, ACC 95.1 86.1 25.3 94.5
9 Oklahoma State, Big 12 99.5 73.3 7.6 93.9
10 Maryland, Big Ten 94.6 81.7 59.1 93.1
14 Air Force, MW 90.7 78.8 34.5 89.6
19 Michigan, Big Ten 54.5 98.3 67.7 88.2
20 OSU, Big Ten 87.3 75.0 65.9 88.0
29 Wisconsin, Big Ten 61.7 87.4 43.2 77.6
39 W Michigan, MAC 83.9 38.2 70.5 71.4
49 Indiana, Big Ten 71.3 59.2 36.6 66.6
52 Michigan State, Big Ten 46.0 88.3 32.5 65.3
61 Purdue, Big Ten 62.3 69.4 7.2 58.4
64 Florida, SEC 10.3 88.1 35.4 56.4
87 E Michigan, MAC 27.7 65.3 33.7 41.7
88 Minnesota, Big Ten 31.1 55.3 51.0 39.9
95 Rutgers, Big Ten 46.7 61.3 2.3 36.1
116 Cincinnati, American 10.9 30.5 50.0 15.7
122 Cent Michigan, MAC 4.9 40.8 59.7 10.9

 

ESPN FPI Team Efficiencies Update, 2016 Final

ESPN FPI Team Efficiencies Update, 2016 Final

Submitted by Ecky Pting on February 9th, 2017 at 2:35 PM

This post is largely just for the record, it being now 5+ weeks after the fact, but the final 2016 post-bowl season FPI team efficiency ratings did actually get posted at some point a while back. The results end up with Michigan having held steady at #3 despite losing in the Orange Bowl. On the bright side, that's one spot better than the National Champion Clemson Tigers.

The U-M splits did move a bit. They are offense, #17 (down from #12); defense, #3 (same a prior rating); and special teams, #3 (up from #8 based on another season of quality punting!). Despite getting throttled by 'Bama Clemson in the CFP, OSU somewhat surprisingly finished with the #2 defense, while sliding to #6 overall.

Of U-M's other 2016 opponents, FSU climbed to #8 from #11, Colorado slipped to #17 from #12, and Wisconsin slid to #11 from #10. UCF remains rated above 5 of Michigan's other opponents this season, getting edged out by one spot by Sparty apparently due to second-order effects of the ratings formulae. Sparty holds on to #72 and retains the title of Third Best Team in the State of Michigan. Meanwhile Western Michigan finishes up at #16 from #17, and at this point it appears that the captain of the rowboat has run aground and issued the "abandon ship" order. Meanwhile, Hawai'i edged out Illinois to finish at #100.

Here's the selectively abbreviated synopsis of the ratings. Click the link above to see the whole list &/or sort by category:

RK TEAM OFF DEF S/T O'ALL
1 Alabama, SEC 70.8 97.4 56.2 93.5
2 Washington, Pac-12 81.6 85.4 56.6 89.3
3 Michigan, Big Ten 73.7 87.4 74.8 88.9
4 Clemson, ACC 81.8 82.9 47.0 87.1
5 OSU, Big Ten 70.7 88.5 48.6 85.2
6 LSU, SEC 73.2 86.7 32.4 82.9
7 Oklahoma, Big 12 92.1 59.1 41.1 82.8
8 FSU, ACC 80.8 75.6 32.4 80.6
9 USC, Pac-12 78.1 68.5 64.2 80.6
10 Louisville, ACC 80.3 74.6 35.4 80.1
11 Wisconsin, Big Ten 63.8 85.5 45.5 79.3
16 W Michigan, MAC 79.1 55.8 54.1 74.2
17 Colorado, Pac-12 61.3 82.2 33.3 73.6
19 Penn State, Big Ten 71.2 63.3 61.0 72.6
30 Iowa, Big Ten 51.4 66.3 69.5 65.5
70 Indiana, Big Ten 39.3 60.9 37.5 47.1
72 Michigan State, Big Ten 52.4 41.7 50.6 46.6
73 UCF, American 21.6 71.8 55.7 46.2
75 Maryland, Big Ten 47.5 40.2 64.4 44.8
92 E Michigan, MAC 40.2 34.9 58.6 36.4
98 Cent Michigan, MAC 35.0 42.0 39.4 33.8
100 Hawai'i, MW 34.7 33.8 52.8 31.4
103 Illinois, Big Ten 27.4 43.0 38.1 30.4
117 Rutgers, Big Ten 16.0 41.2 37.6 21.0

So there you have it. Stick it in a shoe box and shove it under the bed. It's done and time to move on.

ESPN FPI Team Efficiencies Update, Wk. 14

ESPN FPI Team Efficiencies Update, Wk. 14

Submitted by Ecky Pting on December 5th, 2016 at 2:41 PM

The penultimate FPI team efficiency ratings have been posted. Following the various conference championship games taking place around the country whil Michigan stood idle, the results end up with Michigan slipping one spot to #3 after being #2 for three consecutive weeks. The team that moved ahead of M is not OSU, who remains at the #4 spot. It's the Washington Huskies who advance to #2, leapfrogging both M and OSU.

The U-M splits all declined by one spot. They are offense, #12 (down from #11); defense, #3 (down from #2); and special teams, #8 (down from #7).

Of U-M's 2016 opponents, Colorado slipped to #12 from #11, one behind #11 Florida State, who is one behind #10 Wisconsin. UCF remains rated above 6 of Michigan's other opponents this season, including Sparty. Sparty holds on to #70 and retains the title of Third Best Team in the State of Michigan. Meanwhile Western Michigan slips to #17 from #13, but has punched its ticket to the Cotton Bowl game.

Here's the selectively abbreviated synopsis of the ratings. Click the link above to see the whole list &/or sort by category:

RK TEAM OFF DEF S/T O'ALL
1 Alabama, SEC 71.5 98.0 55.8 94.2
2 Washington, Pac-12 86.0 85.8 55.5 91.3
3 Michigan, Big Ten 77.8 89.2 71.7 90.9
4 OSU, Big Ten 75.0 89.4 50.1 87.8
5 Clemson, ACC 78.7 80.8 47.7 84.6
6 USC, Pac-12 76.6 73.6 68.7 82.7
7 Louisville, ACC 83.7 75.4 30.9 82.2
8 Oklahoma, Big 12 91.1 58.1 45.0 81.6
9 LSU, SEC 72.6 83.9 33.8 81.1
10 Wisconsin, Big Ten 63.1 86.7 44.2 79.5
11 FSU, ACC 79.7 72.6 36.3 79.2
12 Colorado, Pac-12 64.3 85.3 33.7 77.5
17 W Michigan, MAC 79.5 58.6 55.7 76.1
19 Penn State, Big Ten 68.4 67.0 59.8 73.0
27 Iowa, Big Ten 55.1 68.8 72.0 69.6
63 UCF, American 24.1 72.1 65.6 51.0
68 Maryland, Big Ten 54.2 40.6 64.9 48.9
70 Michigan State, Big Ten 53.2 43.1 50.5 47.9
71 Indiana, Big Ten 39.5 61.7 38.0 47.8
92 E Michigan, MAC 40.2 36.1 60.4 37.5
95 Cent Michigan, MAC 37.0 44.4 39.0 36.2
101 Illinois, Big Ten 27.6 44.4 38.1 31.3
103 Hawai'i, MW 31.5 32.7 51.2 28.7
116 Rutgers, Big Ten 16.2 43.0 37.6 21.9

 

ESPN FPI Team Efficiencies Update, Wk. 13

ESPN FPI Team Efficiencies Update, Wk. 13

Submitted by Ecky Pting on November 27th, 2016 at 8:57 PM

Woohoo, the updated FPI team efficiency ratings have been posted! Yep - just testing myself - and it's definitely easier to just type that than it is to say it out loud, given the cloud of suspended disbelief in which I  seem to be immersed. Despite the soul-crushing loss to OSU, Michigan manages to hold onto the #2 spot for the third consecutive week. Meanwhile in some bitterly ironic twist of fancystats, OSU drops to the #4 spot from #3. Once again though, the Buckeyes managed to score more points than their opponent, and that is - as Bob Ufer used to say - "the only statistic that matters."

The U-M splits are offense, #11 (down from #10); defense, #2 (up from #3); and special teams, #7 (up from #11).

Of U-M's 2016 opponents, Colorado slipped to #11 from #8, one behind #10 Wisconsin. UCF remains rated above 6 of Michigan's other opponents this season, including Sparty. Sparty slid to #70 from #68 after its pummeling at the hands of PSU, but still remain ahead of Eastern and Central Michigan to retain the title of Third Best Team in the State of Michigan. Meanwhile Western Michigan slips to #13 from #12, but WMU still looks like a lock for a New Year's Day bowl invitation.

Here's the selectively abbreviated synopsis of the ratings. Click the link above to see the whole list &/or sort by category:

RK TEAM OFF DEF S/T O'ALL
1 Alabama, SEC 69.7 98.2 53.0 93.7
2 Michigan, Big Ten 78.1 89.4 71.7 91.1
3 Washington, Pac-12 86.3 83.3 53.9 90.2
4 OSU, Big Ten 75.4 89.3 50.1 87.8
5 Clemson, ACC 76.4 83.3 49.2 85.0
6 USC, Pac-12 76.6 73.9 68.7 82.8
7 Louisville, ACC 83.9 75.5 30.9 82.4
8 Oklahoma, Big 12 91.1 57.3 46.0 81.4
9 LSU, SEC 73.3 83.7 33.9 81.3
10 Wisconsin, Big Ten 60.9 89.2 45.5 80.7
11 Colorado, Pac-12 68.0 85.9 33.9 79.8
13 W Michigan, MAC 83.7 58.8 50.2 78.5
21 Penn State, Big Ten 64.6 68.8 58.9 71.9
27 Iowa, Big Ten 55.4 68.4 72.0 69.6
65 UCF, American 23.9 72.1 65.6 50.9
69 Maryland, Big Ten 54.3 40.5 64.9 48.8
70 Michigan State, Big Ten 53.6 43.0 50.5 48.1
71 Indiana, Big Ten 39.6 61.6 38.0 47.8
90 E Michigan, MAC 39.8 36.7 60.4 37.6
94 Cent Michigan, MAC 36.8 44.9 39.0 36.4
100 Illinois, Big Ten 27.6 44.8 38.0 31.6
104 Hawai'i, MW 31.7 32.9 51.2 28.9
118 Rutgers, Big Ten 16.1 42.9 37.5 21.9

 

ESPN FPI Team Efficiencies Update, Wk. 12

ESPN FPI Team Efficiencies Update, Wk. 12

Submitted by Ecky Pting on November 20th, 2016 at 9:53 PM

The updated FPI team efficiency ratings have been posted, and following the Snow Bowl 2016 win over ChaosTeam 2.0, Michigan holds onto #2 spot for the second consecutive week. LIkewise, OSU holds onto the #3 spot after suffering a moral loss to Sparty. To the Buckeyes credit, however, they scored more points than the Spartans.

The U-M splits are offense, #10 (down from #5); defense, #3 (down from #2); and special teams, #11 (up from #19).

Of U-M's 2016 opponents, Colorado slipped to #8 from #7, but still remains the highest rated team U-M will have faced before meeting OSU next week. Right behind the Buffs are the Badgers, holding at #9. UCF remains rated above 6 of Michigan's other opponents this season, including Sparty. Sparty moved up to #68 from #74 after its narrow loss to the Buckeyes, and remain ahead of Eastern and Central Michigan to retain the title of Third Best Team in the State of Michigan. Meanwhile Western Michigan slips out of the top ten to #12 after a shutout win over hapless Buffalo. WMU still looks like a lock for a New Year's Day bowl invitation.

Here's the selectively abbreviated synopsis of the ratings. Click the link above to see the whole list &/or sort by category:

RK TEAM OFF DEF S/T O'ALL
1 Alabama, SEC 70.0 97.9 58.3 94.0
2 Michigan, Big Ten 80.4 88.4 68.8 91.1
3 OSU, Big Ten 78.1 88.2 56.1 88.9
4 Washington, Pac-12 83.6 80.3 58.6 88.0
5 Louisville, ACC 86.1 81.6 28.3 86.4
6 Clemson, ACC 75.0 81.9 51.5 83.8
7 USC, Pac-12 76.6 74.3 63.7 82.4
8 Colorado, Pac-12 72.3 84.7 38.6 82.0
9 Wisconsin, Big Ten 61.8 89.6 46.3 81.6
10 Oklahoma, Big 12 91.1 57.2 45.9 81.3
12 W Michigan, MAC 84.5 57.0 50.5 78.3
23 Penn State, Big Ten 61.2 69.2 60.0 70.6
31 Iowa, Big Ten 51.6 67.1 72.3 66.7
61 UCF, American 25.6 71.3 65.8 51.8
65 Indiana, Big Ten 44.0 61.4 36.0 50.0
66 Maryland, Big Ten 54.1 42.2 59.4 48.9
68 Michigan State, Big Ten 52.2 45.6 50.1 48.7
87 E Michigan, MAC 38.8 38.4 60.7 38.0
89 Cent Michigan, MAC 36.6 47.3 38.6 37.5
100 Illinois, Big Ten 25.5 46.3 40.5 31.8
107 Hawai'i, MW 29.0 36.0 51.4 29.3
119 Rutgers, Big Ten 14.4 42.7 42.2 21.6