Previously: 2020. Hockey recruiting being hockey recruiting, Michigan has a ton of commits for classes deeper into the future.

2021: Hughes Part Two (And Friends)

Michigan's 2021 class does not suffer from clown car disease to the extent the 2020 class did but you should expect any hockey recruiting class more than a year out to have a lot of uncertainty.

If there are no unexpected departures from the current junior class Michigan will have four forward slots come open via graduation (Luke Morgan, Jack Becker, Dakota Raabe, and Mike Pastujov). Johnny Beecher and Cam York will be departure threats, as will the four top end guys in the 2020 class. Michigan will have somewhere between 4 and 7 forward openings, with 5 or 6 the most likely numbers; they'll have between 0 and 2 D openings, with 1 the most likely number.

Michigan has about the right number of forwards committed. If anything they're short a guy or two. Defense is another matter. They have three commits for 2021 and three guys currently listed as committed for 2020 who may get deferred. If I had to guess I'd say the 2020 recruits are going to find other landing spaces. It'll still be a difficult squeeze.

The forwards

This video is only for viewing by those who enjoy beautiful goals https://t.co/Pbd4ldi9ug pic.twitter.com/w5XjpGbCHm

— x-Chicago Steel (@ChicagoSteel) January 12, 2020

the above is Wolverine on Wolverine crime since the goalie here is Erik Portillo

F Mackie Samoskevich. Samoskevich was briefly mentioned in the 2020 post because he's a member of the rampant Chicago Steel. He had 34 points in 47 USHL games, which is very good for a USHL player in his D-1 year. He had just one power play goal so it's reasonable to assume that he got little or no PP time—as mentioned the Steel were probably the greatest USHL team ever.

[After THE JUMP: More on Samoskevich and two other guys who could get drafted in the first round in 2021]

Samoskevich landed on Scott Wheeler's HM list when he ran down the top 2021 prospects, which would place him in the late first or early second, and drew a brief mention in another guy's blurb:

Oleksii Myklukha, C, Rouyn-Noranda Huskies, 5-foot-10

There are forwards that didn’t make this list (Dylan Duke, James Malatesta, Mackie Samoskevich and Zachary Bolduc) that I like more than Myklukha. But he’s probably the player in that group who I think has the most room for growth — with a nod to Samoskevich.

Yost Built took in a Steel game:

I really liked Mackie Samoskevich. He plays on both special teams units and has a good shot. He *rung* the bar on a one-timer off the post from the left dot and then stung the goalie on another shot. Took a slashing penalty where I'm almost certain he hit the ice, not the player.

— Yost Built (@YostBuilt) February 24, 2020

Neutral Zone:

Everything about his game is quick as the feet and his feet and stick never stop moving.  In one on one situations he made something out of nothing by beating defenders.  He could cross opponents over off the rush and make plays in very tight spaces.  Very quick twitch with his hands, which left him dangerous at any time with the puck.  His two- way game can improve with age but he was a constant factor in the offensive zone.  COLLEGE: MICHIGAN

Samoskevitch should pop up to the Steel's first line next year and push for inclusion in the first round of the draft.

Dylan Duke lights the lamp with this sick toe drag snipe to put USA up 3-1 at the #WorldU17!

Duke is a top 25 prospect for the #2021NHLDraft pic.twitter.com/yXaMEBnKU3

— TPEHockey (@TPEHockey) November 5, 2019

F Dylan Duke. Duke is on the NTDP and is a hair behind a couple of guys being touted as top 15 picks in scoring with 48 points in 52 games; he was one of the U17 guys who got bumped to the U18s late in the year. Like Samoskevich he appears to be tracking towards the late first or early second round of the 2021 draft. He too made Scott Wheeler's HM section and other scouts think he's upwardly mobile:

All three were ranked inside my first round back in November:

Chaz Lucius (5th)
Sean Behrens (26th)
Dylan Duke (29th)

The latter two are certainly due for a bump in my next set.

— Sam Stern (@SternScouting) February 18, 2020

Or they already have him a mid-first-rounder. The Prospect Network:

Dylan Duke (#21 2021), a teammate of Pastujov’s at Compuware, gains significant benefits from Sasha’s playmaking prowess. Duke is a terrific shooter with a dangerous wrister, but don’t underestimate his playmaking ability. He’s also phenomenal around the net where he buried rebounds and had a few nice tips at the U17’s.

(Yes that Pastujov is the brother of Michigan's. He's committed to Notre Dame, which is slightly painful. In other brother vs brother news, Duke's younger brother Tyler is a big deal defenseman in the 2022 class. He is also committed to Notre Dame. Michigan might have the top two college-bound D commits in that class so it's not a problem; it is weird.)

F Mark Estapa. Estapa has a huge disparity between his highlight reel goals and his stats. He got on a SportsCenter top ten for this:

And like a million other people this year he pulled off the Mike Legg goal.

You've gotta be kidding, Mark Estapa... #HlinkaGretzkyCup pic.twitter.com/lqq3WsU2Vg

— USA Hockey (@usahockey) August 1, 2019

His season totals with Tri City: 3-2-5. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Estapa decommitted from WMU and ended up choosing Michigan over Notre Dame; he's also in that group of players just outside the NTDP who go to a smattering of lower-priority international tournaments. Neutral Zone alternated between A and B ratings when they scouted him, which they did repeatedly. All of these are positive indicators, but five points in 45 USHL games is a significant damper on any projection. He's tracking towards being a useful bottom six guy unless he has a breakout next year; FWIW he is an early 2002 so he's draft eligible this year.

The too many defensemen

same number and everything

D Luke Hughes. Let's start with the lock: Luke Hughes is going to be on the 2021 roster for many reasons. One is that NTDP players (almost?) never get delayed. A second is that he's being talked about as one of the top defensemen in the 2021 NHL draft. Craig Button ranks him 8th overall. Corey Pronman has him second. Wheeler places him in a select group slightly behind Aatu Raty, the odds on favorite to go first overall:

He’s got it all … doesn’t skate as well as his two brothers did at the same age but he’s still a smooth, agile skater, plus he’s got an inch or two of height to fill into as well. … has some kinks to work out defensively and he needs to get stronger but I like his puck skill and his ability to make plays through seams. He might take a little longer than his siblings to reach his full potential but he’s got an exciting package and we’re just getting a taste of that right now.

A third is that he is a Hughes. Takes begin with "basically a Quinn Hughes clone." Little Caesar's coach Patrick Stefan:

“They are a little bit different, but in the ways they excel it’s very similar,” Stefan says of Luke and Quinn. “The way they skate the puck up, it’s almost impossible to hit [them.]”

Stefan's son James, a former teammate:

“His stride is the same as Quinn’s,” James says. “It’s so weird, but it picks up so much speed. It’s crazy. You see him at the goal line [and] he’ll be at the next goal line in no time. The creative part of his game is off the charts. He makes moves that not a lot of players can do.”

There are some dissenting opinions amongst close observers on Hockey's Future, with one guy saying that he plays more like the NHL version of Quinn than the wild and crazy collegiate one. That's probably for the best—and Luke is more likely to have teammates close to his level who he trusts. Pronman also notes that Hughes is more well rounded than his brothers:

He may lack the wow-caliber skill of his brothers, but he’s bigger while remaining a very good skater and playmaker. He can stretch the ice with his passes, lead a rush very well and quarterback a power play at a high level. He projects as a great all situations defenseman who can bring significant offense.

Luke is the biggest of the Hughes brothers, currently pushing six-two according to Jack, and is one of the youngest prospects eligible for the 2021 draft. Michigan should get two, maybe three years out of him.

VIDEO: Saint d-man Ethan Edwards goes inside/outside on the defender to score the loan Team Canada West goal in tonight's game.#WJAC #AJHL

Full Game Summary --> https://t.co/M3h2BCz30S pic.twitter.com/hTRCCs7vGR

— Spruce Grove Saints (@sgsaints) December 9, 2019

D Ethan Edwards. Edwards is eligible for this draft and is expected to go in the middle rounds. He's playing in Alberta's junior A circuit, which is not particularly well regarded but does spit out a few draftable prospects annually. He got picked for Canada West's WJAC team and used that platform to impress some analysts. Steve Kournianos:

A graceful puck rusher with a high compete level who rarely turns down a chance to initiate and complete a breakout on his own, Edwards looks incredibly smooth and confident with the puck while using rapid directional changes to sidestep pressure and enter the zone unmolested. If there’s an opening of any kind, Edwards, on or off the puck, will look to exploit it. He spends a lot of time below the circles in order to keep plays alive and his decisions rarely put him in a compromising situation.

Kournianos also caught him at a top prospects game earlier:

…uncanny way of quickly recovering from his own mistakes and cleaning up gaps in coverage. He’s a very good skater with a hard shot … power-play quarterback potential and should be groomed to be the primary safety net for his teammates who are subjected to a heavy forecheck.

Edwards also impressed a Hockey News writer at the same event:

Ethan Edwards, D, Spruce Grove Saints (AJHL): An eye-opener for me (and a fave of scouts) at the CJHL game, Edwards is a sublime skater with a ton of potential. He’s committed to the University of Michigan and has 24 points in 38 games for the Saints.

He put up 33 points in 50 games this season, his first in Junior A. That qualifies as pretty good but it's a long way behind Denver-bound Michael Benning's 75; Benning is projected as as second round pick by many. (Edwards's brother was a freshman at Denver this season, FWIW.

D Luca Fantilli. Fantill is is the most recent addition to this recruiting class and much of the discussion about him has focused on his younger brother. This post does have a section on Fantilli's brother; this bit is about Fantilli himself.

It's tough to get a read on his talent level. Fantilli scored at an excellent rate (13-29-42) for his prep school this fall, and it appears the league he's in is pretty decent. 54 points in 37 games was enough to get Kimball Union center Thomas Mazura drafted in the sixth round last year. Over The Boards:

Luca, a late-02 defenseman, is described as an exceptional skater with great upside, already getting attention from some D1 blue bloods. … praised very highly by those who have seen him skating in the New England Fall Prep League … Don’t be surprised if the brothers end up committing somewhere on Comm Ave — both BU and BC, among other bigs, are already in the chase for Luca’s commitment.

His brother complicates things. A guy with those numbers getting chased by BU and BC is definitely a big deal… unless he has a generational prospect younger brother who moved from Canada to be with him and may well follow. Then he might be a medium deal. He got 3.5 stars from Neutral Zone—that's MSU recruit territory. And Jeff Cox's evaluation was a little lukewarm:

Fantilli is a puck-moving defenseman. While he's not flashy, he does a good job of using his feet and stick to make good breakout passes and keep pucks moving north. He's an adequate defender who uses his mobility to be in position and get in shooting and passing lanes.

FWIW,  the NEPSAC names East and West All-League teams. Fantilli was HM (ie, second team)for the East. The other D on that team is headed to BC. Fantilli is at least a solid D1 prospect who should be expected to play. He could be a late bloomer who's been overlooked because he has a December 30th birthdate.

And also maybe?

So about that brother: Luca Fantilli's younger brother is Adam Fantilli, the slam-dunk #1 pick in this year's OHL draft. Probably! Maybe?

The younger Fantilli left one of the top OHL feeder programs in Toronto to join his brother at a New England prep school, which put a little heft behind an interview he did a couple years prior in which he said he wanted to play in college. He recently visited North Dakota, which is probably good news. Fantilli probably doesn't have to do anything more to convince OHL teams he's taking the NCAA route seriously.

If Fantilli does end up committing to college he could be around for longer than you'd think. According to Over The Boards an unprecedented acceleration might be in the cards:

A December birth-date 2004 (a month away from turning 15), Adam is looking to fast-track so that he could be a senior next year at KUA and graduate with his brother. In that case, he would technically become eligible to start playing in the NCAA at sixteen years old and nine months — in which case he’d be one of the youngest, if not the youngest player to play college hockey, during that the 2021-22 season.

Fantilli is eligible for the 2023 draft so if that happens he'd have two college seasons before getting drafted. Since I've been following Michigan hockey I've never heard of a guy playing his D-1 year in college.

FWIW you see people say that the USHL has never had a Fantilli-level prospect outside of the NTDP; this is not correct. A couple years ago Andrei Svechnikov spent his D-1 in Muskegon. He scored 58 points in 48 games before moving to the OHL for his draft year. He got picked second overall. It's not common, certainly, but even if Fantilli doesn't accelerate his draft year would be in college.

Where Fantilli ends up going in the OHL draft will be an indicator to watch.