Was the cupboard bare (re: Defensive Backs)?
This is not meant to take away from Misopogon's diary or Chait's article on this issue, both written over a year ago, but rather to provide a fresh update through this season.
There has been quite a bit of recent discussion in regards to the inexperience "excuse" including a suggestion that the idea that the "cupboard was bare" is nothing more than an unsubstantiated myth. I disagree. The following is a list of every defensive back recruit since 2004, their star rating, and how they contributed at corner or safety over the past 3 years or, if they didn't contribute, why.
I go back as far as 2004 as those players would have had eligibility to play for RR in 2008 had they redshirted. I continued through 2011 to evaluate RR's commitment to addressing the defensive back positions. Also, I consider the three recruits from 2008 to be Carr recruits. Even though they ultimately signed with RR, and both Smith and Floyd didn't officially commit until after RR was hired, they were both Carr targets and had U of M as a leader prior to the coaching change.
2004
- Keston Cheathem: 3 star Scout, 3 star Rivals (WR). Switched to WR and then transferred to Oregon State before 2005 season
- Jamar Adams: 3 star Scout, 3 Star Rivals. Went Pro in 2008
- Charles Stewart: 3 star Scout, 3 star Rivals. RS Senior on 2008 team. Played in 11 games, started 2, as Linebacker.
2005
- Brandon Harrison: 4 star Scout, 4 star Rivals. Senior on 2008 team. Started all 12 games at SS
- Johnny Sears: 3 star Scout, 3 star Rivals. Kicked off team in 2007
- Chris Richards: 3 star Scout, 3 star Rivals. Transferred to Stony Brook in 2007
2006
- Jonas Mouton: 5 star Scout, 4 star Rivals. RS Sophomore in 2008. Moved to LB under Carr and stayed there under RR through 2010.
- Stevie Brown: 4 star Scout, 4 star Rivals. Junior in 2008. Started all 12 games as FS. In 2009, started all 12 games as LB. Destroyed people.
2007
- Donovan Warren: 5 star Scout, 5 star Rivals. Sophomore in 2008. Started 10 games at Corner and one at FS. In 2009, started all 12 games at Corner. Declared pro in 2010, convinced that he was an early round draft choice.
- Michael Williams: 4 star Scout, 4 star Rivals. RS Freshman in 2008. Played in 11 games, 9 at S. In 2009, started 9 games at FS. Had some injury issues (Enter Kovacs). In 2010, played in 2 games. Sustained season ending injury in second game.
- James Rogers: 4 star Scout, 3 star Rivals. Sophomore in 2008. Played in 10 games on special teams and at WR. In 2009, played in all 12 games, primarily on special teams and at WR. In 2010, started all 12 games at CB.
- Artis Chambers: 3 star Scout. 3 star Rivals. Sophomore in 2008. Played in 9 games, primarily on special teams. Transferred after 2008 season, supposedly to Ball State but not listed on roster.
- Troy Woolfolk: 3 star Scout, 3 star Rivals. Sophomore in 2008. Played in all 12 games on special teams and at CB. In 2009, made 6 starts at safety and 6 at CB. Sustained season ending injury prior to start of 2010 season.
2008
- Boubacar Cissoko: 5 star Scout, 4 star Rivals. Played in all 12 games at CB as true Freshmen. Started 4 games at CB in 2009, then....... downward spiral.
- Brandon Smith: 4 star Scout, 4 star Rivals. RS Freshman in 2009. Played in all 12 games, primarily on special teams with some time at LB and Safety. Transferred to Temple after 2009 season, although I don’t see him listed on the roster.
- J.T. Floyd: 3 star Scout, 3 star Rivals. RS Freshman in 2009. Saw some action at CB. In 2010, started 8 games at CB. Suffered season ending injury prior to Illinois game.
2009
- Justin Turner: 5 star Scout, 4 star Rivals. DNP. Transferred to WVU prior to 2010 season but not on roster.
- Vlad Emilien: 3 star Scout, 4 star Rivals. Played in 5 games as a true freshman. Left team after first game of 2010 season. Vanished.
- Mike Jones: 3 star Scout, 3 star Rivals. Played in 7 games on special teams as true freshmen. In 2010, played some LB against UConn. Suffered season ending injury against Notre Dame.
- Thomas Gordon: 2 star Scout, 3 star Rivals. RS Freshman in 2010. Played in 9 games as Hybrid LB. DNP last 3 games.
- Adrian Witty: 2 star Scout, 2 star Rivals. Did not qualify.
2010
- Demar Dorsey: 4 star Scout, 4 star Rivals. Did not qualify.
- Josh Furman: 4 star Scout, 3 star Rivals. Redshirted. Projects at LB.
- Marvin Robinson: 4 star Scout, 4 star Rivals. Played in 10 games, primarily on special teams. Played some FS vs. OSU
- Cullen Christian: 4 star Scout, 4 star Rivals. Played in 10 games as a back up at CB.
- Carvin Johnson: 3 star Scout, 3 star Rivals. Played in 8 games at hybrid and safety. Missed 3 games due to injury.
- Ray Vinopal: 3 star Scout, 2 star Rivals. Played in all 12 games, 6 at safety with 5 starts.
- Courtney Avery: 3 star Scout, 3 star Rivals. Played in all 12 games, started 4 at CB.
- Terrence Talbott: 3 star Scout, 3 star Rivals. Played in all 12 games, 10 at CB
2011
- Blake Countess: 4 star Scout, 4 star Rivals
- DallasCrawford: 3 star Scout, 3 star Rivals
- Delonte Hollowell: 3 star Scout, 3 star Rivals
- Greg Brown: 3 star Scout, 3 star Rivals
Conclusions:
- Little attention was paid to the position in 2004-2006 and only two of those players (Harrison, SR and Brown, JR) saw time in the 2008 secondary.
- In 2009, we had more experience amongst the starters but depth was still an issue, as we saw a walk on contribute major minutes after injuries. It is notable that we did see improvements in the defensive stats for opponent passing yardage from 2008 to 2009.
- 2010 = Doom
- RR has recruited more players for the secondary in his 3 years than Carr did in his last 5. Some of RR's recruits didn't pan out and naysayers will certainly point this out. We can only speculate as to what went down with Turner and Vlad. What we do know is that they were both highly recruited (OSU wanted both. JH wanted Vlad) and neither are currently on a roster. Then there is the qualifying issues. With Witty, there is an argument that he was only recruited to help land Denard. Dorsey was a risk that probably should have been avoided. RR tried to land a stud in the 11th hour in a position of dire need but, given other issues surrounding the program, he probably should have passed on him. With that said, it is not like Carr didn't have issues with transfers (Cheathem, Richards) or character flaws (Sears, Cissoko).
- Barring attrition or injury, there will not be an excuse for lack of depth in the defensive backfield next year and the future seems to set up nicely for whomever is coaching the team.
sources: rivals.com and scout.com for ratings and projected positions, mgoblue.com for player bios and season stats, and bentley.umich.edu for positional starts per year.
FTR: This is not a plea to save RR's job. IMO, I think the data supports another year but, unfortunately, i do not see a way that can happen after "The Great Wait." RR would continuously have to field questions in regards to his future, not just from the media, but also from the recruits who do care who their future coach will be. More importantly, there is an irreparable rift between RR and a large contingent of the fan base and it is unlikely that he will ever have full support, no matter what he might accomplish next year. Brandon better hope he can land JH or (insert higher being of your choice) help us.
January 3rd, 2011 at 6:11 PM ^
Purple Stuff says that the defections of Turner and Vlad aren't relevent because no Division 1 School wants them. If that's the case, they must not be Division 1 caliber players, right? Both have been given a walk from their 2nd choice schools.
My assertion: if they're as bad as Purple Stuff makes it out to be (losing them wasn't a big deal, because nobody wants them), maybe we made a mistake in recruiting them.
January 3rd, 2011 at 7:09 PM ^
As I recall, Vlad was highly recrruited but had an injury that caused him to lose some of his speed. Everyone liked him, he worked very hard, he was well-liked by his teammates but when he recovered, he was not quick enough for his position. Turner was also highly recruited but seemed to lack the needed work ethic. You can't be right all the time. Sometimes 5 star recruits are probably so used to being the best in their entire geographic area that they never realize that at the next level there are a lot of other players who were also the best in their entire geographic area so HARD WORK is necessary. I can't blame RR for Turner or Emilien any more than one can blame Carr for Warren not being as good as expected or Cissoko being a total flame out. But RR has attempted to recruit DBs, and Michigan now has a good group of DBs. I think that was the poster's point.
January 3rd, 2011 at 6:01 PM ^
by know means was i expecting a top 10 defense, but to be this bad, to be near last in the country in defense, to be so visibly soft and outclassed, to be so shit at tackling game after game, to have so spectacularly mismanaged his defensive staff and philosophy, is inexcusable.
January 4th, 2011 at 9:10 AM ^
But why is it inexcusable? Are you saying that just because we are Michigan and we "deserve" to be better? The whole point of showing the depth chart on defense is to explain why we are so bad. When any other team starts as many freshman and sophomores as Michigan, they will not be a good defense either. Most teams that start freshman or sophomores do so because they are simply better players than the juniors and seniors on the team. Michigan is playing forced to play freshman and sophomores because the juniors and seniors that the previous coaching staff should have had waiting aren't there.
January 3rd, 2011 at 6:02 PM ^
Thanks for the hard work getting all the numbers together. It really has been the perfect storm. I believe that DB has these numbers for his evaluation or maybe you can email him your work. Either way, it may be too late for RR.
January 3rd, 2011 at 6:03 PM ^
For as good as RR and Co. are at talent identification and development on offense, they are heinously bad at those skills on defense. I just don't get it.
January 3rd, 2011 at 6:39 PM ^
You look at how RR has restocked the cupboard on offense and he's got some of his recruits making major contributions - Denard, Forcier, Roundtree, Lewan, Omameh. Defensively though, he's got some recruits that are playing but no one is making an impact on defense like some of his recruits are on offense.
January 3rd, 2011 at 7:12 PM ^
Right. No question the guys play hard in the secondary. Some are inexperienced, but some are just not big enough or fast enough yet. We saw it all year. Cam, love the kid and he did switch positions, could not catch Rudolph. And what really made me feel bad for the kids was when the MSU player just cleaned up on Vinopal on that short pass long run. That hit took out Vinopal and Avery, I think. I got to give it to the kids, they just kept playing hard but MSU overmatched them.
January 3rd, 2011 at 6:04 PM ^
Talk about water under the bridge. Whether he was or wasn't, the facts remain, overall losing record for three years, getting trounced in abowl game with a month to prepare and a complete inability to be flexible with players and staff was here. There were mistakes made on all sides from the beginning, but when all is said and done, it's time for a change because the experiment has failed. Can we move on please?
January 4th, 2011 at 9:20 AM ^
When evaluating a coaches future, these things matter. Why? Because when Brandon evaluates RR and sees that he was left with a terrible roster, with little to no depth in the freshman and sophomore classes, this helps RR explain why the results are how they are. Just looking at the results and not seeing the reasons behind them is foolish. RR is a great coach and if he has reasons why the results are what they are, it's still important information to share.
How was RR inflexible? He can't force people to stay here when they did not want to be here. He did the best with the roster he aquired. RR explained from day 1 that Mallett could fit into his offense as a passer. Yes RR prefers the running spread style but he said over and over he would tailor the spread to the passing game if Mallett stayed. Even if he did that and changed his philosophy, I don't think Mallett would have been the savior in the first year that everyone thinks. The offense as a whole was bad and you can see why when you look at the roster RR inherited.
January 3rd, 2011 at 6:10 PM ^
Supposin' the cupboards weren't bare?
January 3rd, 2011 at 6:18 PM ^
That's what ESPN said of Michigan's then 10th rated 2007 recruiting class.
Fans didn't care much for the Wolverines' 2006 class, but the 2007 class should please the masses. WR Junior Hemingway(Conway, S.C.) does not get enough credit for his abilities -- watch out for him. QB Ryan Mallett(Texarkana, Texas/Texas) might have the most upside of any quarterback Michigan has had during Lloyd Carr's days in Ann Arbor, including his days as an assistant. Where are the cornerbacks, though?
Link: http://sports.espn.go.com/ncaa/recruiting/football/news/story?id=2757802
The foundation for the collapse had already begun under Carr and continued with RR.
January 3rd, 2011 at 6:16 PM ^
You ignore the fact that Carr recruited a number of DBs in 2007 (not to mention the 2008 recruits). This recruiting thing tends to happen in cycles. Unless you're in the SEC and skirt the roster rules, you want to average about 20 players per class, which means on average about 0.75 recruits per starting position per year (20 / [22 + kicker and punter] = .83). So, on average, you're looking at about 3 defensive backs per class, dependent on certain factors such as scheme. So, 2004-2006 is not exactly holy crap no recruiting. Carr should have gotten one or two more (and / or not converted so many of them to other positions). Look at RR and offensive line recruits. We're projecting to get 4 this recruiting class because we only had one last class. Does that mean RR was smoking something last year because we only took one offensive line recruit in the last class?
RR had some bad luck (Woolfolk injury), but considering all the young men that could have been playing defensive back this year but didn't, at some point it stops becoming a coincidence or luck and starts to show the true nature of RR and defense (Brandon Smith, Turner, Dorsey, Witty, Vlad, Warren, and Cissoko). There's your cupboard right there - not exactly bare so much as the new tenant cleaned it out himself.
January 3rd, 2011 at 6:36 PM ^
Cam Gordon: team's fourth leading tackler, team co-leader in INT and PBU as a freshman. Received freshman all-American honors
Courtney Avery: started the back half of the season as a true freshman. Made 36 tackles and co-led the team with 4 PBU
Jordan Kovacs: team's second leading tackler as a sophomore with 2 INT and a team co-leading 8.5 TFL
Thomas Gordon: 23 tackles, 4 TFL and 2 sacks as a freshman
JT Floyd: team's fifth leading tackler in only 9 games as a sophomore corner. Co-leader with 4 PBU
Ray Vinopal: starter at FS back half of the season. 33 tackles, 1 INT, 3 PBU as a true freshman
Carvin Johnson: 18 tackles and a sack as a regular contributor and spot starter as a true freshman
T. Talbott: 15 tackles as a true freshman corner
Cullen Christian: 4-star recruit at CB
Marvin Robinson: 4-star recruit at FS
And four more DB commitments are on board for next season. Mentioning a bunch of washouts who aren't seeing the field anywhere, a guy who thought he was going to be a 3rd round pick in the NFL draft so tried his luck, and a dude in prison, while ignoring the large number of young contributors in the secondary for this team is unfair to them and to the guy who brought them in. Michigan's problems in the secondary (and at linebacker, and on offense, and on the defensive line) the last three years have stemmed from a woeful lack of talent in the upper classes that Rodriguez inherited, not from any inability to bring in and coach up good young football players.
January 3rd, 2011 at 7:14 PM ^
I don't know if I'd say these kids have been coached up yet. Listing stats is great but simply by the fact these guys were on the field playing they were going to accumulate stats.
You list Vinopal and when I hear/read his name the first thing that comes to my mind is Herron plowing through Vinopal on the 87 yd run like Vinopal wasn't even there.
January 3rd, 2011 at 7:22 PM ^
And it means he isn't being coached properly? Maybe you should flip your reference point and think of the tackle he made against Illinois on third and short that gave us a chance to win the game.
The point is that there is a long list of freshmen and sophomores making huge contributions all over the field on defense way before they should have to see the field (didn't even mention Roh or Demens). The list of seniors making key contributions on defense is Jonas Mouton, two guys forced into emergency duty who had never seen the field until their fifth season on campus (Rogers and Banks), and a couple of backups. That is the reason our defense wasn't any good this year.
January 3rd, 2011 at 7:17 PM ^
and as to Funkywolve, sometimes the reason you can't defend against the run is at least in part because of the things you have to do to try to avoid a disaster if they pass. Just like a really good pass rush makes a secondary look a little better than it may be, a really good secondary can really help the rush defense. But, the rush defense was also hurt by the fact that we were not exactly bursting with good seniors at LB or on the line, either. Next year, the D ought to be quite a bit better: a year older, more experienced and another 10-15 pounds heavier on average.
January 3rd, 2011 at 7:21 PM ^
This was RR's third season. It's not his first, and it isn't his second - his third. When does blaming Lloyd stop? 2015? How is it a woeful lack of talent in the upper classes when there's at least 8 guys who could be playing defensive back this year that aren't? How much of that can you honestly blame on Lloyd Carr and what he did four years ago?
Some of these "washouts" were guys that saw the field in 2008 or 2009 when we had something a little more closely resembling a defense, FYI. I expect coaches to develop players and keep them on the team. Are you going to blame Lloyd Carr that Ezeh plays the exact same as he did his freshman year? Or blame Lloyd when RR's top recruits never see the field?
I don't pick on freshmen - you're right, it's not their fault there's no one ahead of them on the roster. And it isn't their fault that the coaching staff can't help them to improve a lick over the course of a 13 game season, or with a month to prepare for a bowl game.
January 3rd, 2011 at 7:32 PM ^
Rodriguez must not be a good coach because Obi Ezeh, one particular mid-level recruit, isn't all that great at playing football.
Congratulations. I am defeated.
January 3rd, 2011 at 7:42 PM ^
No, he's not a good coach because he can't retain and develop any talent on the defensive side of the ball and has a defense that ranks 110th in the nation.
I'm sorry, but it's not like if you were to go back in time and have Carr recruit three more 3 or 4 star defensive backs we would have gone to the Rose Bowl this year.
January 3rd, 2011 at 7:55 PM ^
Brandon Graham, Stevie Brown, Jonas Mouton, Ryan Mundy and countless other players would probably disagree with you.
But you're probably right. Team bad = coach bad no matter what (and by "team bad" I mean having a winning record despite getting almost no contribution from the senior class you inherited from the prior coaching staff).
January 3rd, 2011 at 8:03 PM ^
The schedule got increasingly harder as the season progressed while our experience and depth dwindled due to attrition and injury.
You say: Improvement wasn't apparent.
I say: Derp
January 3rd, 2011 at 8:50 PM ^
It stops next year when RR actually has most of his guys as upperclassmen or second year players. You know, a two-deep stocked with players who have had significant time in a college program? Not 6 true freshman in the defensive backfield.
LC left the cupboard bare at the end of his tenure. End of story.
RR made a HUGE mistake by not making defensive recruiting a bigger priority. I believe he has realized it in the past two seasons and you can see from his draft classes that he's tried to make up for it. Unfortunately, these two errors - one his own doing, one he had nothing to do with - may have doomed him into unemployment.
January 3rd, 2011 at 6:21 PM ^
I think most people knew going into the season that we were in trouble with the secondary. The thing that really got me was how poor of a run defense UM had this year. It wasn't like they got burned in the passing game and were fairly stout against the run. They were bad in both areas. They gave up 189 yds/game on the ground and 4.43 yds/carry.
January 3rd, 2011 at 6:43 PM ^
you can't line up your defense knowing the other team is going to run the ball. If you put 8 in the box to stop the run, you are leaving your CB's on an island in man coverage. That was death all year. So they played bend-but-don't break, hoping for the opponent to screw up. UConn's QB was atrocious, so it worked. ND's QB was concussed, so it worked. McGloin had a career night, so it didn't work. Relf, Wiscy, MichSt and OSU just pounded our front 6 because whenever we added a run defender, the WR's had those 10 yard cushions. It's kind of a "pick-your-poison" scenario.
January 3rd, 2011 at 7:13 PM ^
This isn't a criticism of what Carr brought to the table because things almost certainly would have been different if he had stayed. Still, these are the contributions this season from the senior class Rodriguez inherited and the freshmen/sophomores he has signed since he's been at Michigan.
Seniors on offense: 2/5 of the starting offensive line, 67 receiving yards and 1 TD
Underclassmen on offense: 2/5 of the starting offensive line, 3,252 passing yards and 23 TD, 2,687 rushing yards and 26 TD, 1,182 receiving yards and 10 TD
Seniors on defense: 291 tackles, 23 TFL, 5 INT
Underclassmen on defense: 532 tackles, 29.5 TFL, 7 INT
Now think about recent Michigan teams and what they would have looked like without the sizeable contribution they got from their senior class. 2006 without Steve Breaston and three future pro bowlers on defense. 2003 without Navarre setting passing records and Chris Perry headed to New York for the Heisman ceremony. 2004 without Braylon.
Now think about a season next year with Molk, Stonum, Hemingway, Odoms, Koger (three three receivers and a TE who accounted for nearly 2,000 yards receiving last year), Martin, RVB, and hopefully a healthy Troy Woolfolk making up the senior class and ask yourself again why we are so quick to fire a proven head coach whose team is clearly on the rise.
January 3rd, 2011 at 7:24 PM ^
held to the same standard as RR was.
Year One: Understandable losing
Year Two: Incredible bitching after every loss followed by doubt of coaching ability. This phase also needs to include clear questioning of the coaches Michigan man status.
Year Three: Back to Michigan winning football or fired.
Recruiting, personnel fit, and injuries do not matter. This was the standard fans set for RR. It needs to be adhered to for the next coach as well. Whomever that may be.
Frankly I could careless either way at this point if RR stays or goes as I can see the argument both ways. Just don't move the bar when the next coach comes in.
January 3rd, 2011 at 7:54 PM ^
I think the cupboard was kinda bare in the secondary when Rodriguez got here
He had a competent starting unit, some good parts. I'd rather not rehash all the issues with SS, the seniors DBs not really buying in and Rodriguez inability to get everybody working together.
Anyway, those guys were mostly seniors. There wasnt a ton of guys in the pipeline.
On signing day 2008--the Rich/Lloyd hybrid class--we all thought DWar and Cissoko would be the starting tandem for 2009 and 2010. Obviously that idea didnt work out. Plan B? There really was none.
I dont even want to talk safeties, Its been well document how this is an ongoing disaster that predates Rodriguez, however it remains an ongoing major effing problem for the program that he hasnt even come close to solving
The cupboard had nothing back there. And Rich's efforts to stock it have blown up on him so we're in the situation we're in. I do like some of the numbers brought in the last two years. But, its quantity, not quality. Nothing wrong with that. I think we have our hands on some guys who can turn into good Big 10 DBs. Problem is they are all guys that a couple years of seasoning and what not.
The program has needed impact defensive players and with rare exception MIchigan has not got any in give or take six years. Today, in Jan 2011, its pretty obvious thats what the problem was with the program--despite what most people fingered the problem as--in December, 2007.
If Brandon thinks Harbaugh can go into the living rooms of the high end defensive recruits and bring them to Ann Arbor, then he should be hired. In retrospect our offensive accumen wasnt a problem--although most thought it was--in Dec, 2007. And it still isnt.
Our defensive program has been broken for about six years, save for like 10 games in 2006. Its time to bring somebody in to fucking fix it.