RPI Projections - MBB

I was messing around with the RPI Wizard found here -

http://www.rpiforecast.com/wizard/index.html

Interesting tool as you can project wins and losses.  Just for fun I put Michigan in as winning out and it reported an RPI of 16 if that happened.  Sure would be nice, but it also predicts that chance at 3.54%.  One loss is a 15.27% probablity, two losses a 29.36% probability, three losses at 29.35% probability, and four losses a 16.15% probability.  The following are the remaining games followed by the percentage chance at a win.  I also ran the simulator for each single team as a loss so you could see which games have the biggest hit to RPI.  No surprise that the home losses were the biggest hit.  I did find it odd that the highest ranked team left on our schedule caused the biggest hit to our single loss RPI projection (OSU), but I can't really speak to how the wizard calculates its data.

Then I ran a couple two loss scenarios, and a handful of three loss scenarios.  When I get more time I will run some more scenarios to get a better picture.  What I came up with in the few I ran was pretty much defend home court, finish at least 2-2 on the road, and we're looking at a 7 or 8 seed in the tourney.