Roster Attrition after 2016
Seems like it will be abnormally high after this season.
Off the top, we lose these Senior starters???
All of our backfield, Lewis and Clark, Hill, Thomas. LBer Gedeon. Dline Wormley and Charlton.
Offense we lose both Wideouts, our TE, 3 Oline starters, our #1 RB.
So theres 14ish. That number doesn't include the possibility of losing Peppers, Hurst maybe M. Cole.
Seems like we really need B. Cole to get some serious snaps next year. Would be great to get OT Newsome some snaps. Would be great if Raulerson would come in and start and play again in 2017.
I don't want to panic when Joe Blow from Kokomo changes his crystal ball away from a Michigan recruit, so I've found something new to panic about. Even if is just a year and half away from happening. I kid.
My question one last time, isn't the attrition going to be about as bad as its ever been after 2016? Or too early to panic about?
January 20th, 2016 at 7:31 PM ^
Sometimes when I see data like this, I have more questions. Mine was what the win/loss records were for some of those seasons where a lot of starters returned.
I picked the few seasons with high 'returning experience by total starts'.
97-99 were all over 10 win seasons.
02 and 03 were over 10 wins seasons.
2011 over 10 wins.
2010 and 2012 Doesn't fit the over 10 wins. Oh well.
So I'm thinking the reverse would be true, generally. Less experience=Less wins. Duh.
Still trying to justify my panic for 2017. lol Biggest factor is we now have Coach Harbaugh. This class of recruits is so important.
January 23rd, 2016 at 12:44 PM ^
Look at the extremes in comparison to the years around them. The highest years in returning starts were:
- 2011
- 2015
- 2012
- 1998
- 2010
The lowest were:
- 2008
- 2004
- 2001
- 2009
- 2013
In general the years with more returning starters were better but there are outliers. 2014 and 2010 had relatively good experience but also had coaches about to be fired and teams significantly underperforming as a result.
2001 was a good year on its own but in context of its era it was a down year because of how talented the roster was. Two years to either side Michigan was one of the best teams in the country. 2004 was also low on XP but that team had astounding play from its freshmen, including Mike Hart, Chad Henne, and Jake Long. 2005 had good experience returning but there were so many injuries that much of it didn't get on the field. Ditto 2007.
Experience is like talent: it helps a LOT but it doesn't guarantee.
January 19th, 2016 at 8:52 PM ^
January 19th, 2016 at 11:46 PM ^
I recall Bama sending their entire OL to the NFL and still getting into the playoffs the very next season. And others have been mentioned. Jimbo at FSU, despite what they did vs. Houston had an excellent season. Kelly is obviously at the point where he is able to plug in competent replacements, even if they come from different positions. He has always empashized athletes over locked in positions.
Of course the difference being this is JH's first season, first recruiting class, etc. However, he has worked his ass off, as has his staff - they are not allowed to get tired - on putting together the nucleus for what they hope will be an extremely gifted team in as little as two years. A handful of coaches have an ability, as we witnessed this season, to get much more than the sum of its parts.
I recall one of Bo's teams - this is when he had firmly built the program - instead of replacing the graduates with the upcoming class of seniors, as was normally the case, start an inordinate number of underclassmen and thoroughly dominating almost every opponent. I didn't realize how young we were that season until after one game when the opposing coach was commenting on the dismantling of his team said something of the nature...."We had better get use to it, because we'll be seeing them for the next two years. So obviously, having built a program that could virtually reload, he went with the best players that just happened to have a significant number of sophs that season. It happens.
I do know, no matter the number of players we lose, those left will have already embraced the Harbaugh mentality, and this will be huge. Hell,it was obvious when they lined up for the first game the team, with a qb that made a couple of huge mistakes, we were significantly better than what we had witnessed the past four years.
And of extreme importance, JH will, when these kids wave goodbye, have had a little over two years to groom the qb that will more-than-likely lead this team for two, maybe three years. When that man (qb)is a returning starter, the most important concern with every season will be a non-issue.
January 19th, 2016 at 9:07 PM ^
January 19th, 2016 at 10:50 PM ^
2016 Seniors: 23
January 19th, 2016 at 11:46 PM ^
The same thing happened in 2012 when we lost Mike Martin in co. - wasn't that a lot of seniors? (which is why Hoke was able to win his first year)
Makes sense that it would happen 4 years later.
January 20th, 2016 at 12:02 AM ^
as is often the case on wifi down here. It comes and goes on shared service. I was trying to take a look at the last two season's recruiting, especially last season, to see how many played last season. The only freshmen I recall were Hidgon(?) and Perry, both of whom played a bit early but Perry,, especially in the season finale, showed how much he had improved as to pass catching, although he stood out early in blocking and I understood why Harbaugh was rewarding him.
But by and large those we saw very little of, or did not play at all will have had one season and two preseasons with this staff. For those that didn't permanetly change their address to The Dog House, we will see contributions from them on the level as Perry in the final game. If some of these, i.e., Cole, Harris, et. al. play at 80% of their potential - a not unreasonable guess based on their relative youth but damn fine coaching which will include an understanding of what has to be done, don't be surprised at just how much they will contriibute next season. Look at the difference when Hoke was forced to play a qb vs. NE because he had the backup playing wr and hadn't prepared him to take snaps (WTF?) as opposed to this season when he didn't just ask the backup to not lose the game, he asked him to win it, and he did. That right there is probably the best example of The Harbaugh effect that I can think of. If it happened at the most important position during extreme duress for that young man, imagine on how that plays out when considering all positions.
So, yes, will not surprise me to see our large quantity of returners perform even better than what they did last season, I fully expect those that were RSed and those who saw very little PT last season to make a much larger contribution than we are even considering at this point.
January 20th, 2016 at 9:21 AM ^
Happens to the best of programs. In Saban's fourth season they went a "mere" 5-3 in the SEC and finished 10-3 overall after the bowl game, which seems unthinkable. I could see a similar finish for Michigan in 2017. Youth just has to be dealt with for a while until those players gain experience and go through some adversity.