Feeling generally positive about the state of the roster in spite of last seasons results, I took a look at where we stand in terms of stars and then in terms of stars and experience.  Not the perfect measure of a team but seemed like a good place to start.

 

Here’s what I found:

	5*	4*	3* or lower	Total 4*+
CB	FR	SR-2s, JR-2s, JR, SO-1	SR, SO-1, FR	5
Safety		JR-1s, SO, SO	SO	3
LB		JR-1s, JR-1, JR, SO-1, FR, FR, FR	SR-3s, SR-3s, SO, FR, FR	7
DT	JR-1	SO, SO, FR, FR, FR	SO-1, SO, FR	5
DE		SR-1s, JR-1, SO-1, SO, FR	SR-1s	5
QB	SR-1s, SO-1		JR, FR	2
RB	SO-1, SO	JR-1, SO-1, SO-1, FR	SO	6
T		SO-1s, FR, FR, FR	SO	4
G	SO-1s	SO-1s, SO, FR, FR, FR		6
C	FR		JR-1s, JR-1s, SR-1, FR	1
WR		JR-2s, JR-2, SO-1, FR, FR, FR	SO-1s, SO, FR, FR	6
TE		SO-1s, FR	JR-2, JR, FR	2

SR, JR, SO and FR are obvious (did not differentiate redshirts).  2s is a returning starter that has started for 2 years.  1s is a returning starter that started the previous year.  2 or 1 is two years or one year of playing significant minutes.  My definition for this was that they were a regular part of the rotation.  For example, I counted Bolden and Gedeon as guys who played, but I did not count Dymonte Thomas or Ryan Glasgow. 

 

Overall, we’ve got twenty-seven 4* or greater on defense and twenty-six 4* or greater on offense.  We also have two 4*s for every starting position except at center (one 5*) and safety (three 4*s).  From a talent standpoint, this appears to be how you would want to build a roster.  The talent and depth is significant, and it is evenly spread across all positions as well as across offense and defense.  Combine this with a top notch defensive and offensive coodrinator along with near zero attrition, and it sounds like exaclty how one would want to build a roster. 

I believe strongly this team is set up for consistent success for years to come.  The big question is when does the winning start.  I consider this in the next section when I consider both experience and talent.

Experience and talent

For this review, I’m considering it a good position if there is at least one 4* or greater JR or SR for each starting postion.  Next best is a 4* or greater sophomore who played significant minutes (or started) the previous year and then 3* JRs and SRs who started the previous year.

Defense

Strengths: 

CB:  Two 4* two year starters returning, 1 SR (Taylor) and 1 JR (Countess) plus a 4* (Lewis) and 3* (Stribling) sophomore who played significant minutes and a 4* JR (Richardson) along with a 5* true freshman.  Plenty of good options here.

LB:  Two 3* SRs (Ryan and Morgan) that have started for 3 years.  Three 4* JRs one who started (Ross) and one who played significant minutes (Bolden).  Also a 4* SO (Gedeon) who played significant minutes.

DE:  A 4* SR and a 3*SR (Beyer and Clark) who started last year along with a 4* JR (Ojemudia) and a 4* sophomore (Wormley) who played significant minutes.  Also a 4* SO that played some last year (Charlton).  Clark, Beyer and Ojemudia will do well here.  If Charlton comes on that will be a major plus for the defense.

 

Mild Concerns:

Safety:  4* JR returning starter (ok so far) along with two 4* SOs and a 3* redshirt SO none of which have played at all yet.  I’d feel great about Wilson if he were the second best safety.  I do think he’ll be ok.  For the other spot, there are 3 players who might be fine to good but have only Dymonte Thomas’ limited playing time and Delano Hill on special teams of game experience between them.  The strength at CB and LB will help this position.  Overall, I think the safeties will do fine with some excellent play and only a few ‘ugh’ moments on the year.  Something to watch, but not a major concern.

DT:  This surprised me as an area of concern with only Pipkins coming back from injury as a JR/SR 4* or higher.  If you put Wormley at DT (likely), that gives us a returning 4* who has played.  3* Willie Henry played last year as redshirt freshman and was very good for a RS-FR.  I think he’ll be fine at one of the DT postions.  Pipkins, we’ll see if he’s healthy, but I’ll consider it a pleasant surprise if he can play well this year.  Godin is back as a 4* RS-SO who played a little last year.  I think he’ll play some and be ok.  Hurst is a 4* RS-FR with some hype.  I’m expecting Willie Henry (from last year) level play or better from Hurst in a reserve roll.  I think Wormley or Glasgow (looked very good starting in the spring game) will be the second starter alongside Henry if not Pipkins, and either of them will be ok but not spectacular.  I see enough options here that we should be fine.  A healthy Pipkins and/or a big step forward from Henry, Hurst, Wormley or Glasgow leaves a chance this could turn into a strength.

 

Overall, I see plenty of strengths on defense to allow the safeties with talent but limited experience to grow on the job.  The defense will be dominant at times and solid the rest of the time while giving up a few big plays this year due to inexperience at safety.  I think with Clark and Ryan along with some penetrating DTs and an aggressive defense, we’ll get much more pressure on the quarterback then we had last year.  This is the year the defense arrives as a Top 10 defense (should be even better in 2015).    

 

Offense

Strengths:

QB:  Have to consider a 5* SR QB returning starter as a strength.  In addition, Devin is backed up by a 5* sophomore (Morris) who started one game last year and played pretty well.  Devin was up and down last year, but we should be fine at this position.

WR (?):  By my metrics, this looks good with a 4* JR (Funchess) who has started for two years and a 4* junior (Norfleet) who has played two years along with a 4* sophomore (Darboh) who played previously and a 3* sophomore (Chesson) who started the previous year.  However, Norfleet played RB and KR and not much WR.  Darboh is coming off an injury and didn’t do much when he was playing as a true freshman.  Chesson did some good things (mostly blocking) but doesn’t seem poised to be a dominant receiver.  All in all, I’m confident we’ll get a pretty good #2 and #3 receiver from Canteen, Darboh and Chesson plus Norfleet  to go along with a star receiver in Funchess, but noone beyond Funchess has Big Ten success to back that up.  If Canteen didn’t look so good in the spring game to go along with his practice hype, I’d be nervous.

RB (?):  4* JR (Hayes) who played a little last year with 5* (Green) and 4* (Smith) SOs who both played last year.  Would be nice if there was a starter or someone who was successful coming back, but this position should be fine with some combination of these three.  

 

Concerns:

T:  This is the #1 concern on the roster (ok, we knew that).  Zero 4* or better JR or SRs.  4* SO Magnuson comes back as a starter (at guard) from last year.  He will be fine.  3* RS-SO Braden played in goal-line situations late last year and looked ok but not great in the spring game.  He might be ok.  Glasgow, a JR walk-on who started last year (at center), would be fine at RT if Braden isn’t ready and someone else can play center.  There is a possibility this will be ok, but Braden’s development is critical.

TE:  This looks ok on paper with a 4* SO successful returning starter (Butt) and a 3* (Williams) returning who has played a lot for 2 years but unfortunately that’s not the whole story.  Butt is injured and out the first few games and likely will take several games or more after that until he is back to last years level.  Butt sounds like he will be back by the 4^th game.  I think he will be ok, but not the high level of production this year you’d like from the position.  Williams has played quite a lot, but he is just a blocker and hasn’t been a good one so far.  Williams looked much improved as a blocker in the spring game.  I’m hopeful his spring game performance is real, and he’ll be a decent blocking TE this year.  If not, I think Heitzman will be fine as a blocking TE.  If we need a pass threat before Butt comes back, Khalid Hill and Ian Bunting are options but neither is likely to be effective blocking.  The TE play will be adequate but nothing special.      

C:   This is a tough one to judge.  We have a returning starter walk-on backed up by a 3* JR who started four games last year before being benched backed up by a 5* R-FR.  I believe Glasgow is a good player and will be fine if he stays at center.  I was impressed by Kugler’s solid play in the spring game.  My hope is Kugler comes on strong and takes the job in fall practice so that Glasgow can start somewhere else.  Center should be ok but not great with Glasgow or Kugler. 

G:  On paper, this doesn’t look bad with a 5* R-SO and a 4* SO who both started multiple games last year.  However, given the OL play last year, the fact they started doesn’t mean as much.  Similar to center, I think Kalis and Bosch will be ok but not great.

Summary

Overall, I see an offense that if things break right (Braden or Kugler step it up, Devin improves at QB, Canteen makes big plays) could be very good, but more likely is 1 year away from being a Top 10-20 offense.  There are just too many positions that need 1 more year of experience to feel confident going into the season, and if more than one OL is injured things could get ugly fast.  I do think the offense will be much more consistent than last year.  The running game will be better (new offensive coordinator, all OL have played some, RBs showed cutback ability in spring game) and there will be fewer turnovers.  With an excellent defense, this will be enough for the team to take a big step forward from last year and set us up for excellence in 2015.