Opening Line: OSU by 13

Submitted by ChalmersE on
I'm surprised it's that low. Bet it goes up at least a couple.

hfhmilkman

November 24th, 2013 at 7:02 PM ^

Mattison has done a good job of tailoring a game plan against each of our opponents.  Spread teams see Mattison play smaller players at DT example Black.  Against more conventional offenses he bigger DT's example Washington.  The problem with OSU is they can run their power from a spread formation.   If Mattison goes light the call is a power run with Hyde.  If Mattison goes heavy, the call is read option on the perimeter.  Thus Mattison will have to choose a poison.  This will make it very difficult for Mattison to win RPS.  He can still go bend but not break.   But it will be much harder for the defense to be dynamic.  I don't think we can expect much help from the offense. 

jdon

November 25th, 2013 at 9:32 AM ^

Vegas isn't stupid (you know, the whole city in the middle of the dessert thing)  yes, dessert tastes good...

 

anyway,  I like this line because a good 2/3rds of the bets will be on OSU.  That tells me, as an estute gambler, that Vegas sees something that tells them michigan will hang within 13 points. 

 

I always try to coach people on gambling that:  1.)  a line isn't what vegas thinks will happen it is 'supposed' to be what it takes to get even money on a game so vegas can make the money off of the juice.  2.)  #1 is a lie propogated in vegas and the truth is most games see around 60-80% of the money on one team or the other. 

 

Sure, vegas loses some times because of this but overall they win the majority of their bets.  I have been lucky enough to gamble for over ten years with a bookie who shares results with me and lets me analyze them, I also read a lot about what people bet on, and I stand by what I just said... 

 

Michigan will cover the 13 (probably 14.5 or 15 by saturday) this coming saturday... And the game will be under I think as well...

jdon